Tuesday June 23 2020 Forecast

50 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

The marine layer again covers the region to start the day today, but the low clouds are already somewhat thinner over portions of eastern MA / Boston area as of 7AM. Today will be quite similar to yesterday where we see the clouds break up for sunshine, but showers and storms that pop will be generally outside of the WHW forecast area. The one exception yesterday was a series of cells popping up around eastern CT near the RI border. That probably will not happen today. Temperatures come up just a tick from yesterday but still will be coolest in coastal areas. Tonight, more clouds arrive in advance of the only system that has a shot at bringing more widespread shower / thunderstorm activity – a cold front crossing the region Wednesday. Drier air arrives behind this front for Thursday, but a couple troughs crossing the region Thursday night and Friday may trigger a few more showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The next disturbance will be moving through the Great Lakes by Saturday with its warm front extending toward New England, probably meaning additional cloudiness and a shower threat by later Saturday, though I have a little lower confidence on forecasting this particular feature at this time.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun. Very slight risk for an isolated shower inland. Humid. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH, some sea breezes likely.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds. Risk of showers late. Highs 78-85. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Disturbance moving through brings a shower and thunderstorm risk June 28. There is a little uncertainty in how the last couple days of June and first couple days of July play out because there have been some indications of a little more high pressure in eastern Canada and perhaps a boundary nearby to southern New England. This makes for the possibility of some unsettled weather and a shaky temperature forecast. Will re-evaluate next update.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Look for return of a more zonal flow pattern with limited risks for any precipitation and temperatures near to above normal.

50 thoughts on “Tuesday June 23 2020 Forecast”

  1. Bellow is the regional weather summary from
    Norton for yesterday. Look at the variability. The reason why a weather app will never be a forecast. A generic market wide radio forecast is not accurate and why a modelologist with never be a meteorologist.

    70-74 at the East coast. 82-84 inland and 92-94 well inland. Not a measurable drop of rain any where that has an official reporting station in SNE except Williamantic that got 1.73!”

    It is not just snow that fascinates me and a reminder that more types of weather than snow can bring region wide variability.

    1. Excellent comment and thank you. I find being only 5 or 6 miles in from the airport makes for extreme variability at times.
      I have seen it 90 here and 70 at the airport. Snow here and rain at the airport. Pretty cool.

      Yesterday, the airport topped off at 71, while we made about 80 here. The reason I say about is that my Davis Equipment when subjected to high sun angle, can read high by 2-4 degrees. I topped out at 82, so we may have only made 78-80.

  2. Thanks TK! Based on your outlook above, it would appear opportunities now to chew away at our abnormally dry conditions in the next two weeks or so albeit slowly. It certainly looks considerably “wetter” long range, relatively speaking, of course compared to your previous forecasts. Am I following you correctly?

  3. I can’t speak for TK but I can say with GFS essentially going to useless mode, the fluctuations in the ECMWF from run to run have been more difficult to smooth out as there is little counter balance or control to its variable and incrases forecaster doubt.

    Wednesday 6/24 has been anywhere from 0.1 of rain and progressive frontal passage to 1.0 of rain and a slower 12 -18 hour type passage.

    6/28 has been dry and 80s and 90s one run, 70s and showery next run. End range around 7/2 , 99 and dry at 12z yesterday cool with a hung up boundary or even a full blown cut off the next run.

    I continue to lean more dry at the moment.

    1. Ugh. Makes your job all the more difficult. I am so happy that we have TK,SAK,WxWatcher and yourself to sort out these
      difficulties. We are truly blessed here at WHW.

  4. We now have a very light sea breeze at the airport, SE at 7 mph.
    Temp 72. 72 here in JP as well.

  7. Thanks TK

    As I read the comments re the models, my mind goes back to the Hallmark movie from last week where the female met learned how to predict weather by watching nature. And I say this tongue in cheek as I know full well it is a movie for pure entertainment purpose.

    1. Speaking of movies, did you get a chance to watch
      Rock My Heart. If you didn’t like it, you can say so. No worries. 🙂

      1. I didn’t. I kept getting interrupted by the kids last night(which I never mind) but want to make sure I can watch without stopping and starting

      1. Thanks TK and I am sure there is a lot of truth to it. I suspect it is also Something the native people understood

  9. Perhaps I am incorrect. I see many chances of showers and tstorms but have a sense that will have little impact on our drought or abnormally dry conditions. Tstorms May help to fill lakes and ponds but typically run off so have only small impact on gardens and lawns and wooded areas…..

    And I may be all wet on this thought process…pun possibly intended

  10. Thank you, TK.

    During my daytime run yesterday in Boston I could feel the marine layer of air. Felt like natural AC. It was cool in every sense of the word.

  11. Btw, TK
    I like the Woods Hill Weather in YELLOW at the top left.
    I know you have been experimenting with changing that
    color. Personally, I like the yellow best with the magenta 2nd and orange dead last. 🙂

  12. Dew points appear to be on the rise.
    66 at Logan, 68 at Norwood and I see a 73 at Hartford, CT although that appears to be an anomaly as surrounding stations
    are 67-68.

  15. Well, Subtropical Depression FARCE actually looks like it might be subtropical now. It’s got a well-defined low-level center, but only a few thunderstorms mainly south of the center. If it can string together more than 2 thunderstorms in the next 6 hours, and somehow find a way to get them to a different part of the system besides the southern semicircle, then the National Thunderstorm-Naming Center will almost certainly name it on the next advisory. Of course, it’ll be completely gone tomorrow, by why waste an opportunity to name a storm and pad the stats?

  16. 79 at the airport with dp 68 and wind ESE at 9 mph.
    Probably not enough of a push for sea breeze front convection.
    But here’s hoping

  17. Convection is starting in NY, Western MA and VT.
    How much coverage will there be? We shall see.

    1. Not much today. But there is one little wave of level instability that may enhance a few cells well west later.

      1. It will never make it. But it’s moot now. Already going in the stat stuffing. 🙂

  20. Logan has lost the sea breeze. Getting pretty oppressive out there.

    I have one AC installed, providing some relief or at least
    a location to cool off.

    1. But wind is South, so in theory that should limit the high
      temperature somewhat, perhaps to upper 80s or touching 90, but keep it out of the mid-90s.

  21. My goodness the medium range models have NO idea…
    I’m trying to figure out if this is more frustrating or comical.

    1. Is it all related to the shut down in many data points such that the models can’t be initialized properly? Why would they all of a sudden just crap the bed so often?

      1. For some time, and to some degree it continues to be less data due to less planes flying about. There are probably still some other shut-down issues contributing to this as well.

  23. TK, what in the medium range are the models struggling with ? In other words, they are showing what and then, what are you thinking is a likely outcome for the northeast US ?

    1. They’re struggling with consistency. They keep showing something different on every run beyond a couple of days out.

      1. Basically what SAK said. There is a little bit of consistency in a general sense on the ECMWF for part of the time range, but I’m not even sure that’s close to what will happen…

        I went through a little slump forecasting recently, now the models are in a funk collectively. 😛

        2. Just look at the forecast for Thursday. Yesterday morning. Thursday looked to be partly to mostly sunny and less humid with the cold front well offshore. Now? Some sun, maybe some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with the cold front stalled near the South Coast and the upper-level low a little stronger.

    1. Ok and yikes. Great movie. I may need an hour to settle but thank you. Rock reminded me from start of my daughters first pony….sassy as hell but devoted to his little girl. Dark bay but often mistaken as a black. Same white blaze. Cabaret was a large pony. Rock seems to be a smaller horse so not far off.

      Thank you for recommending this. So special

Comments are closed.