Wednesday June 24 2020 Forecast

55 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

For several days now, I’ve thought that June 24 would be the greatest risk for the most places to see some kind of rainfall, and that June 26 & 28 would carry risk as well. These 3 days are now inside the DAYS 1-5 so we can hit all 3 events head on. First, obviously, today: Starts with low overcast which then breaks, much as it has the last couple days, but there have been differences each of these days. Monday we kept a regional onshore flow so the clouds were slow to break and the temperature were somewhat cooler. Tuesday we had more of a regional land breeze, clouds broke sooner, and it warmed more substantially. Both of those days so extremely limited shower activity mostly occurring west of this WHW forecast area. Today, with a cold front approaching, we have a southerly air flow and additional cloudiness moving in above the lower clouds, so even when they do break it won’t be to the brighter sunshine they broke to the last couple days in most cases. However, any sun we do get will help to destabilize the atmosphere so that there will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms anywhere in the region as we progress through the afternoon and very early evening. However, we will have to weight the risk highest west and north of Boston, where the combination of more sun (pre-threat) and better dynamics will exist. Anywhere that does experience a shower or storm this afternoon (and possibly very early evening to the southeast) could see brief but torrential rain, gusty wind, lightning, and even the risk of hail. But don’t take this as a definite and certainly not as a “going to happen everywhere” kind of thing. Also, while any rain is welcomed for our dry spell, heavy rain tends to run off quickly and while it can aid in being a minor recharge for a reservoir it will not help that much for agriculture as it doesn’t have a chance to sink into the ground. We’d need a slower, gentler rain for that, and nothing like that is in the cards. But I am getting ahead of myself. Once we get beyond today’s threat, we get a break for Thursday as a slice of drier air arrives. But a couple troughs need to move through from later Thursday night through Friday, and one or two rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms may occur with these. The greatest risk of something will be during the afternoon hours of Friday if we can combine one of those trough passages with daytime heating. The threat for Sunday (June 28) actually arrives first late Saturday as thunderstorms that form to our west and north may try to make a run at the region late in the day, well ahead of another frontal system. This front will be passing through the region during Sunday, so the threat of showers and storms will exist that day as well. For the weekend, the warmest / hottest day will be Saturday, when we are likely to see the most sun and a southwesterly wind. More clouds and a shower threat should limit our temperature rise for Sunday. But there will be additional fine-tuning to the weekend forecast over the next couple of days. Sadly, the combination of these 3 threats the next 5 days will do little to help what is pretty certainly a developing drought now. Will continue to monitor that.

TODAY: Cloudy start, then variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance north and west of Boston. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm favoring southeastern MA & RI early evening. Patchy fog. Slightly less humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late evening or overnight. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 79-86. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

An early summer version of a temporary blocking pattern, while the pattern wants to be zonal overall, a stronger ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada and weaker upper low extending from the Northeast to Mid Atlantic Coast sets up for the last couple days of June into the first few days of July, with a general but weak northerly air flow here in southern New England. This pattern would be dry most of the time, but would provide a daily opportunity for pop-up showers and thunderstorms in daytime heating. As for details – impossible to know this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

General zonal pattern, west to northwest air flow. Temperatures near to above normal, limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms.

55 thoughts on “Wednesday June 24 2020 Forecast”

  1. Thank you, TK.

    Gosh, you do such a terrific job in explaining weather. You’re a great teacher.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So, in other words, Boston gets screwed again today????

    So, I am not counting on a single drop of rain and that wouldn’t
    surprise me in the slightest. Anything more will be a bonus.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Boy, that Day 6-10, as well as the 0z Euro, sure look a lot like the kind of blocking pattern we’ve now dealt with twice since mid May. Better hope to cash in on rain over the next 5-6 days. The first 10 days or so of July could be bone dry.

  8. Good morning, and thanks as always, TK.
    I agree with everyone; you are a great teacher!

    Sultry morning…Dewpoint of 69 degrees here. Marshfield is at 72. Nice breeze, though.

    A totally unscientific observation: I have noticed that the sky seems to be much bluer. I was a small retirement cookout last Thursday for a colleague and the sky was a deep blue. Beautiful! Maybe it’s because of the fact many have been home throughout the last couple of months and there’s less pollution.

    2. Its a mix of reasons, some days are just that blue usually in the winter when there is less moisture in the air, to prevent particle suspension. in the air. There is also been a major reduction in pollution but that’s starting to go away as Asian countries have ramped up their pollution and we are opening up here as well.

  9. TK…I know how much you love fireworks displays. Today is Saint John’s Day. In Spain and in the region of Catalunya, last night was “Nit de Foc”, Catalan for “Night of Fire”. There are many fireworks displays, bonfires and “Correfoc”, Catalan for “Fire Runs”. I have been to a couple of Correfoc and they are wild!!!

    Here’s a videoclip of a Correfoc:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asATLsjyzDU

  10. Also, did y’all see this?:

    After months of closure, Barcelona’s Opera House (Liceu) opened for the first time the other night. A quartet played to a full house of 2292 potted plants. The plants will be donated to health care workers.

    https://youtu.be/lJkzGRmdZB8

  11. Let me join the chorus thanking TK for all he does on this site. As I was reading this morning’s entry, I was struck by your effort compared to that of somebody just posting some nice colorful, and probably useless, graphics.

    1. And it looks like a break in the line will pass right over Boston.
      Unless the 2 segments join up. ha ha sure that will happen.

  17. I took a drive up from Plymouth to Marshfield and on the northwest horizon is a beautiful, tall cumulus cloud that rises above all the other cumulus and / or stratus. It’s got that orange/pink tint to the top third of it.

    1. Off Topic: read something nice about the director of the Sutton Senior center today in a healthcare newsletter.

  20. The dew points all now 70F or a bit higher ahead of the dew point front crossing Massachusetts. We’ve gotten a lot of sun down here too, it’s really hot and humid.

  21. Looks like a total pooforama for Boston as per usual.
    Line weakening and breaking up as it approaches. What else is new??

    1. That’s fine with me. I never was a fan of t-storms like most here.

      As long as dewpoints drop tonight and tomorrow, it’s all good AFAIC! 🙂

  22. On Ch. 7 news this morning, I read under their news crawl space that there is a dust cloud from Africa currently in the Caribbean that could eventually “darken” parts of the U.S.

    Is this the same dust cloud that blew off the African coast over the weekend that was discussed here at WHW? It was also mistaken (by me) as potential tropic activity.

    Could the “darkness” be experienced here in SNE?

    1. Yes, it is the same dust cloud.
      Darken? I think that is pure HYPE. Haziness perhaps, darkness, I think not.

  25. Got a few drops from one of the pre-cells, just enough to provide
    that “rain” smell. Never had to close the windows. No puddles.
    Totally useless. And there is NOTHING left of the line
    as it pathetically passes through.

  26. Philip… The “darken the skies” reference is COMPLETE hype. At worst that can brown out the sun before sunset, but most of the time it makes for great sunsets down there. We’ve already spoken of this on the blog. And none of it will get up to New England.

    1. That was my concern. Thanks TK.

      Since that morning newscast, I never heard about that dust cloud since.

  28. I love today’s weather. Muggy, lots of clouds splash & dash downpours all along my route home. After I stopped at the Lake Q in Wakefield to warn a bunch of teenagers that 1) they were about to get downpoured on and 2) standing under a tree for shelter was not a good idea… Well at the time the first one was missing just to the N but I was watching the building tower to the SW. They did not heed my warning, UNTIL the sky opened up…

    Oh well.

    1. Oh, the logic and world of teenagers. I have 1 and in not too long, we’ll have 2. I’ve waved the white flag already 🙂 🙂

      1. And girls to boot, Tom. You might want to crawl into a bunker for a few years. ……like 10.

        My youngest has a daughter who will be four August 3 (I always thought four was far worse than terrible twos) and a just 13 year old and a middle child.

        I have learned one very valuable lesson……being a nana is amazing

  30. As pointed out by TK and SAK yesterday, the models are struggling with consistency.

    Just today’s 00z and 12z euro at 500 mb is case and point. In the mid to long range, how it handles some kind of Canadian trof
    is quite different in the 2 runs.

    I guess it’s time to rely on the euro up to 48 to 72 hrs and then take 96 hrs out and really have to wait until it gets into the short term range.

  31. This is a really weird observation but for some reason I have a good record of predicting rainfall events on the 24th of a month about 10 days in advance. HAHAHA!!

  32. The HRRR totally nailed today’s activity nearly down to the cell and hour of occurrence about 24 hours in advance.

    A friend of mine in NH was not expecting storms in their area until late afternoon & evening because the TV met they watched showed a “time-line” that indicated the activity would be late-day and evening. Problem is, that time-line was a model that was just blindly used (probably the NAM, I didn’t really look at it for this event). A little meteorology applied to this would have yielded the conclusion that the HRRR, if you wanted to go by a model, was going to be much better. So here was are late afternoon, nearly early evening, when they were told to expect the activity, but it’s been over for about an hour there…. Oh well.

    1. I was certainly expecting quite the unsettled afternoon for Boston. It did have that “look” to the west though for awhile.

      With all the humidity (60s/70 dp) it should have been ripe for a downpour.

      Oh well. Certainly no harm done.

      1. Just because the dewpoint is high does not mean that everywhere gets the heavy downpours. The downpours did exist, and some of them were quite heavy, but they don’t just occur “everywhere” in every situation. They occur based on the synoptic conditions, and that was this: We had a pre-frontal trough, and a cold front moving through. Both of them were quite productive, but the showers themselves were rather narrow and low-topped. And when each boundary passed through the city, they had spent their energy to the west and north of the region. I experienced seven showers/thunderstorms between 2PM and 6PM between Reading, Wakefield, Stoneham, and Woburn. So here, it was quite the active afternoon. This could just as easily have happened in Boston proper, but it did not.

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