Thursday June 25 2020 Forecast

43 Comments

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

A “cold front”, by definition, maybe more of a “dewpoint front” has passed through the region and you’ll notice that while today is still a warm early summer day, the air will not feel nearly as sticky as it did yesterday. There will be some cloudiness around at times, otherwise expect a decent amount of sun too. A couple of troughs will cross the region later tonight and Friday, both potentially triggering a few showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance will be midday and afternoon Friday over the eastern half of the WHW forecast area (southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI) as the passage of the second trough will coincide with maximum heating. The weekend dilemma: timing of next feature. Models have not been performing in a stellar fashion of late and they can easily lead a forecaster astray, so instead of going over the various scenarios they present, I’m sticking basically with the same idea of a warm front / cold front combo over the weekend, with the best chance of unsettled weather occurring later Saturday and into Sunday, but not to be translated into “we’re going to have a rainy weekend”, rather just noticed as an opportunity for a few episodes of showers and/or thunderstorms. When we get to Monday, an upper level low in the area may trigger some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-88. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm overnight, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Lows 61-68. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon, favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early sun, then variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mid afternoon on. Highs 83-90 except 76-83 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 79-86. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Low to moderate confidence on this forecast, but I believe we will transition from a small scale blocking pattern (high pressure north, upper level low pressure nearby to south) with opportunities for diurnal showers and thunderstorms, into more of a zonal (west to east) flow with mainly dry weather during the course of this period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

General zonal pattern, west to northwest air flow. Temperatures near to above normal, limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms.

43 thoughts on “Thursday June 25 2020 Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK. Nothing better than a “dewpoint front” after that bout of humidity, we’ll take it!

    Great discussion yesterday too.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Funny you said dew point front as that is exactly what I said
    to me wife last night after telling here it would still be
    in the mid 80s today. She, of course said well then this is not
    a cold front, so I said think of it as a dew point front. 🙂 🙂

  4. After nothing happening all day yesterday, right at the front,
    a cell popped up out of no where and passed right overhead,
    producing a rainbow as it departed. My son took this shot
    of the rainbow over the top of our house in JP.

    https://imgur.com/a/9NE6Lne

  5. Thanks Tk . I just need Saturday daytime dry as my fire pit & patio planters are finally being installed .

  7. Thank you TK!
    Yet again we missed out on the rain, just not in the cards for my area this time. Hopefully Friday may bring something.

    1. We had about the same whopping amount JPD had but in a torrential downpour so not a lot of benefit. Not even a clap of thunder 🙁

  8. Good morning to you all on this side of the blog!

    This week’s Drought Monitor is out and, not surprisingly, it looks like most of New England is now in the Moderate Drought category.

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

    I am not sure, but I think I heard Eric Fisher say the other day that Concord, NH is currently in its driest 30-day stretch on record.

    1. Thank you, Captain. Re concord – they had a few days of cells dancing on or around that area. Shows how little good quick hits do. I’ll have to talk to my brother and sister-in-law who live in Bow but whose kids both live in Concord.

  10. Also, we are in an elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon.

    Thanks so much, TK!!!

  12. 0.01 inch at Logan yesterday. My neighborhood finally rained very late day, around 7:30 or thereafter. It was just enough to “moisten” things.

    1. I was looking at a post I made on FB last year on this date, having just brewed a cup of “Half Christmas” blend for iced coffee. It’s just a fancy name slapped on hazelnut. 😛

  15. Thanks TK.

    Not a drop of rain here again yesterday. Lawn is brown and crispy. Looks terrible!

    I am sitting at 0.91″ on the month of June after receiving 3.5″ in May so definitely the driest stretch we have had in at least two years. Now at 21.86″ on the year so still holding pretty close to normal on the year…for now.

    1. Pretty impressive considering it’s been very warm much of the month all the way to the summit as well. Seems like it’s been 55 to 60F most of the month at the summit.

  20. Water temp sitting at nearly 80F in Lake Champlain which is an all-time record for the Lake, even beating all water temps ever recorded in July and August. Pretty incredible and a testament to how anomalously hot it has been this Spring off to our north…

    https://twitter.com/TylerJankoski/status/1275435829536518145?s=20

    Also important to note this temp was taken at 7 feet below the surface. Water is even hotter along the more shallow beaches.

    2. Thanks SAK! “All systems fail in a drought…” …and now it IS officially a drought for a good part of the region! No surprise…

  23. Eric Fisher thoughts on Saturday Thunderstorm Potential
    An equally tricky Saturday forecast with NW flow. Thunderstorms likely, just a question of arrival.
    A lot of it has to do with thunderstorm activity that forms tomorrow across the Great Lakes…so will be updating as that becomes more clear

  24. I can’t help but think those Saturday thunderstorms end up being towards southwest CT, southeast NY and northwest NJ …….

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I’m sure we’ve had thunderstorms on NW flow disturbances, but seems the majority of the clusters that develop in the Great Lakes and head our way end up southwest of eastern Massachusetts.

  25. There have been some years when the PGA Tour is here in CT we get some pretty good thunderstorm activity. In 2009 when the tournament was taking place an EF 1 Tornado happened in Wethersfield and a year late an EF1 Tornado happened in Bridgeport. Will see if we get some thunderstorms going on Saturday when the PGA Tour is here.

    1. I was waiting the other day in a restaurant for our order, it must have been Sunday and I didn’t even notice a good 15 minutes went by because I was so happy watching live golf ! It was so good to see a new sports event.

  26. This year the Travelers Championship has it’s best field ever. We have some exciting finishes over the years. Back in 2017 Jordan Speith won on the first playoff hole against Daniel Berger after Speith holed a shot from the bunker to win it.

  27. I like to post these twitter chats from meteorologists every once in a while. Here is one about the Saturday Thunderstorm Potential from Ryan Hanrahan and Eric Fisher. This went with the Eric Fisher on the tweet I posted earlier
    Ryan Hanrahan
    Should be clear by 9 a.m. Saturday.
    Eric Fisher
    seems optimistic lol
    Ryan Hanrahan
    There’s a lot of low level shear around too.
    Eric Fisher
    Later in the day = watch out…morning arrival = probably not that interesting? Good wind energy for sure
    Ryan Hanrahan
    Nice LLJ and warm advection could help with some widespread morning stuff which would be great.
    Eric FIsher
    Afternoon on the WRF has a very interesting hodo for you if AM convective debris clears out

  28. So we have another outside and socially distanced grands long overdue birthday Saturday. Anyone have a timeframe?

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