That is a great article Joshua. It is filled with facts and logical reasoning. If only,… well, you know.
You mention contact tracing. Do you know of any parts of the US that are successfully tracing contacts?
Since most of the states that are surging are in the warmer parts of the US, the idea that the virus would “go away” in the heat was certainly wrong. But, I wonder if the situation would be even worse were it not for the warmer temperatures.
SClarke, Washington State may have the best contact tracing system in America. The Governor (Inslee) has done a great job, as well as cities like Seattle, but even more conservative ones like Spokane have bought into the tracing concept.
I certainly recognize and appreciate American reluctance to give away our information to the government. However, pandemics call for unusual measures. I do believe contact tracing helps with controlling spread.
Florida is now dialing back reopening, similar to Texas. Arizona will likely follow, perhaps Alabama and South Carolina, too. Smart, targeted measures do less damage to the economy than blanket lockdowns. Let’s hope the measures are sufficient to curb the spread.
I’m not an epidemiologist. Perhaps I’ve become an armchair version of one. But, my expertise is very limited. So, the following conjecture is just that …
I do still think the novel coronavirus suffers in sunlight and heat, so outdoors. My guess is outdoor transmissions are limited, even if people are not physically distancing. This doesn’t mean transmissions are non-existent, but they’re limited.
On the other hand – and this is something I at first totally overlooked – in places where cases are surging it’s too darn hot right now to stay outdoors for extended periods of time. In fact, from late May to early September most of daytime life carries on indoors in air-conditioned spaces. The novel coronavirus loves people-hopping indoors; think bars with no ventilation other than AC, or gyms, or movie theaters.
That does make a lot of sense. Both the virus and its hosts do not do well outdoors in the summer conditions in the South.
Makes sense to me Joshua. I thought you’d mentioned indoors with AC In hot areas previously. Or I thought it was here that I read it.
In the Netherlands they’ve beaten back the virus. In recent days, 63,000 tests were done and 600 were positive. That’s less than 1% positivity. Interestingly, it’s less due to mask wearing than physical distancing. The Dutch take the latter very seriously, indoors and outdoors. Masks are worn indoors, in cafes, offices, public buildings, and public transportation. But, it’s the physical distancing and lack of large gatherings that’s very conspicuous. Also, restaurants indoors are at 25% maximum capacity in most places, unless you have a lot of natural ventilation and a large space (then you can go to 50% under strict conditions). Bar areas remain closed until further notice. And, the Dutch lead by example, as I’ve mentioned before. The Dutch PM is sort of like a strict rabbi. priest, or minister, and constantly reminds the people to avoid large gatherings (more than 6-10 people, depending on venue), physically distance oneself at all times, and realize that this is going to be a long period of time before we get back to normal. And no, next year is not going to be a great year, he reminded the Dutch. It’s going to be a little less rough than this year. That dose of realism is missing here, I feel. American optimism is a great thing. But, it’s not so great when faced with a pandemic. You have to be real and straight with people.
I don’t even know how to respond. It is so painfully obvious. Someone recently said we are the greatest country in earth. My heavens……we are no longer close. I’d say we are still best at some things….entitlement comes to mind
And PLEASE do not mistake my comment for not loving my country. I will always love this country. Right now it seems we have lost our way and I pray daily we can find out way back
In November!
Major layoffs in terms of non tenure professors at umass lowell was announced today
I truly can’t stop the tears. Our heroes are literally being sent into the thick of things to save lives they took an oath to protect by our politicians who are stomping all over the oath they took to protect us
C-19 for 6-27 is up…
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Coronavirus task force is going to give their first briefing in nearly two months around 12:30pm today.
Dial back of reopening has begun. Texas Governor Abbott just announced he is closing bars, and reducing restaurant capacity to 50%.
My latest on resurgence of coronavirus cases:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/26/amid-surging-us-caseload-decline-in-covid-19-deaths-stalls/#2f72f73d6b5d
That is a great article Joshua. It is filled with facts and logical reasoning. If only,… well, you know.
You mention contact tracing. Do you know of any parts of the US that are successfully tracing contacts?
Since most of the states that are surging are in the warmer parts of the US, the idea that the virus would “go away” in the heat was certainly wrong. But, I wonder if the situation would be even worse were it not for the warmer temperatures.
Thanks for sharing your insights.
Excellent but chilling, Joshua.
Great article Joshua
New strategy from the task force
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/coronavirus-testing-anthony-fauci-says-task-force-seriously-considering-new-strategy/ar-BB160vg0?ocid=msedgntp
SClarke, Washington State may have the best contact tracing system in America. The Governor (Inslee) has done a great job, as well as cities like Seattle, but even more conservative ones like Spokane have bought into the tracing concept.
I certainly recognize and appreciate American reluctance to give away our information to the government. However, pandemics call for unusual measures. I do believe contact tracing helps with controlling spread.
Florida is now dialing back reopening, similar to Texas. Arizona will likely follow, perhaps Alabama and South Carolina, too. Smart, targeted measures do less damage to the economy than blanket lockdowns. Let’s hope the measures are sufficient to curb the spread.
I’m not an epidemiologist. Perhaps I’ve become an armchair version of one. But, my expertise is very limited. So, the following conjecture is just that …
I do still think the novel coronavirus suffers in sunlight and heat, so outdoors. My guess is outdoor transmissions are limited, even if people are not physically distancing. This doesn’t mean transmissions are non-existent, but they’re limited.
On the other hand – and this is something I at first totally overlooked – in places where cases are surging it’s too darn hot right now to stay outdoors for extended periods of time. In fact, from late May to early September most of daytime life carries on indoors in air-conditioned spaces. The novel coronavirus loves people-hopping indoors; think bars with no ventilation other than AC, or gyms, or movie theaters.
That does make a lot of sense. Both the virus and its hosts do not do well outdoors in the summer conditions in the South.
Makes sense to me Joshua. I thought you’d mentioned indoors with AC In hot areas previously. Or I thought it was here that I read it.
In the Netherlands they’ve beaten back the virus. In recent days, 63,000 tests were done and 600 were positive. That’s less than 1% positivity. Interestingly, it’s less due to mask wearing than physical distancing. The Dutch take the latter very seriously, indoors and outdoors. Masks are worn indoors, in cafes, offices, public buildings, and public transportation. But, it’s the physical distancing and lack of large gatherings that’s very conspicuous. Also, restaurants indoors are at 25% maximum capacity in most places, unless you have a lot of natural ventilation and a large space (then you can go to 50% under strict conditions). Bar areas remain closed until further notice. And, the Dutch lead by example, as I’ve mentioned before. The Dutch PM is sort of like a strict rabbi. priest, or minister, and constantly reminds the people to avoid large gatherings (more than 6-10 people, depending on venue), physically distance oneself at all times, and realize that this is going to be a long period of time before we get back to normal. And no, next year is not going to be a great year, he reminded the Dutch. It’s going to be a little less rough than this year. That dose of realism is missing here, I feel. American optimism is a great thing. But, it’s not so great when faced with a pandemic. You have to be real and straight with people.
I don’t even know how to respond. It is so painfully obvious. Someone recently said we are the greatest country in earth. My heavens……we are no longer close. I’d say we are still best at some things….entitlement comes to mind
And PLEASE do not mistake my comment for not loving my country. I will always love this country. Right now it seems we have lost our way and I pray daily we can find out way back
In November!
Major layoffs in terms of non tenure professors at umass lowell was announced today
This is frightening, to say the least:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/opinion/coronavirus-arizona-hospitals.html
I truly can’t stop the tears. Our heroes are literally being sent into the thick of things to save lives they took an oath to protect by our politicians who are stomping all over the oath they took to protect us
C-19 for 6-27 is up…