Friday June 26 2020 Forecast

78 Comments

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

For the final 5 days of June, this is quite the complex forecast. So right to it. We start out with a trough over southeastern Massachusetts this morning, triggering a few showers. This shifts offshore as a second weak trough ambles its way eastward across the region during the day today. This will provide enough focus for at least clouds to pop, and probably a few isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will once again be a case where most people don’t get anything, but those who happen to be under one of them can experience a heavy downpour. This moves off tonight, and more changes are on tap for the weekend. First a warm front will cross there region Saturday with varying amounts of cloudiness, although contrary to some model data bringing showers, in some cases steadier rain, into the region as early as the morning, I feel that we’ll hold off any wet weather threat until afternoon and that it will be more patchy in nature. However, if there is enough sunshine, I cannot rule out a couple heavier thunderstorms popping up near and just south of the frontal boundary. The real dilemma with this is that the front may never really cleanly get through the region, and may hang up around the MA/NH border, which could make for an interesting temperature contrast in the region by late in the day. We may have a case where an easterly wind is blowing near the NH Seacoast where it is quite cool, while areas west and south of Boston are much warmer and more humid. We may have to iron-out these details in “now-cast” form during Saturday. That front will push back to the south during Sunday, but will be in no hurry to do so, so there will be the continued opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Again, don’t expect a widespread soaking rain event with this. It will struggle to provide much in the way of beneficial rain, with downpours running off, and a longer-lasting gentle rainfall not in the cards. When we get to Monday and Tuesday, we’ll find ourselves in a cooler but weak north to northeast air flow behind the front and a departing low pressure wave, but upper level low pressure over the region with cold air aloft keeps the atmosphere unstable so we can see diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each day. Again, not a widespread rain fall, just pop up activity. And while it’s a little early to call for this, with cold air aloft like that sometimes these types of pop up showers/storms can produce hail as well. So that will be something to also watch for as we get into early next week. I must stress, however, that the overall pattern remains dry and with the exception of the South Coast, for now, we are in the early stages of a drought.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers near Cape Cod early to mid morning. Isolated showers / thunderstorms anywhere but favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI this afternoon. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early sun, then variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mid afternoon on. Highs 83-90 except 76-83 Cape Cod. Temperatures may cool back during the afternoon especially southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to E in southern NH and northeastern MA during the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Look out! Here comes July! A tiny bit more confidence today that the pattern for the early days of the month will be similar to what we have seen recently, and stubbornly, and that is high pressure that likes to be centered north of New England with weaker low pressure to the south. This is a dry pattern overall, limited shower activity, and no intense heat or humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

I cautiously lean toward a shift, finally, to a more zonal pattern, west to northwest flow in the upper levels, temperatures near to above normal, and continued limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms. Expect drought conditions to expand through the first third of July.

78 thoughts on “Friday June 26 2020 Forecast”

  3. Is today purple day? Are you going to settle in for a specific
    color for each day? I don’t know how others feel, but I kind of like that.

    1. Bluesy Monday, Ruby Tuesday, Ash Wednesday, Black Friday (hmm), Sunday, Bloody Sunday, …

  4. Thank you, TK. I must have missed wbz

    I’m focused on tomorrow since we have another granddaughters birthday which of course has to be outside and distanced. Looks as if late morning through lunch might be best bet. Thanks for your detailed forecast.

    1. Nice. When that feature in Eastern NY arrives during peak
      heating this PM, I would expect some action.

    2. understandably, one’s attention goes to the thunderstorms currently south of the Vineyard, but I wonder if this small disturbance to our southwest can assist with any thunderstorm development ?

      1. I think not. And also, that cluster “appears” to be sliding
        just enough off shore to even miss the Vineyard and
        Nantucket as well.

  7. SPC has us in MArginal tomorrow and Sunday as well.

    I wonder if one or both days doesn’t get elevated to Slight?

    We shall see.

  8. Thanks TK
    The SPC outlook for tomorrow will be updated around 1:30pm today. In the latest outlook the slight risk was expanded to include western CT.

  10. at noon, Logan has a W wind with a 56F dewpoint and Plymouth has a S wind with a 67F dewpoint, so there is definitely a dew-point front btwn Boston and Plymouth and a bit of sfc wind convergence. Perhaps can narrow focus from Hingham southwestward to SE RI.

    Anywhere where the dps are in the 50s, tougher to see storms and SE of the Cape Bridges where there isn’t as much surface heating.

      1. That storm is rather stationary. Someone is getting a lot of rain locally, like the other day when we had the sea-breeze storms.

  12. I can see the Cohasset/Scituate cells to my north under suddenly darkened skies.

    It’s also dark to my west-southwest with that cell.

    We really need some water down here. Closer to the coast, we missed those sea breeze storms.

    The dirt road leading in and out of the campground we were at in Plymouth earlier this week …. you created a dust storm driving on it and our lawn is already burnt and not growing in certain areas. It looks like a late July/August lawn.

    1. My son said it was quick in pembroke & figures right when my outside contractors pulled up to start the job .

      1. Sorry SSK …. things are developing quickly. Suddenly hearing thunder with a big cell on the northern half of Marshfield. Another cell developing west over Rockland. Am now following ch 5’s radar. Going to be an interesting next 60 to 90 minutes on south shore.

        1. Another good cell just south of Pembroke and the original Brockton area cell that is going to go right through Pembroke soon.

        2. No big deal they left in one truck so they will be back as the other truck is there . They probably went to pickup the fire pit

    1. That cell is intensifying !! Headed for Duxbury, hope those on Duxbury beach are headed for shelter !!

  16. JpDave, the taunton radar makes it look like these showers/storms on the south shore are helping to temporarily send the humidity boundary towards the NW. That might put you into play in the next hour or 2. It looks like an outflow boundary moving NW. Do you see it?

    1. Click on tornado and you will see a good chunk of that slight
      risk area has 2% tornado risk.

  20. I wonder if that boundary starts moving SE again or if it sits there for a few more hours and interacts with what I think is another push of dry air, accompanied by a few showers in central NH and north central MA ……….

    1. ??????? It has already passed my location and still moving NW. Between me and Newton at the moment.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    Tom, you are so right about the grass looking August brown. Such a contrast from last year.

    By the way, I did a half-marathon in Plymouth, along an old, mostly dirt road (they said the road dates back to the time the Pilgrims landed). There was a campground somewhere along that road, as well as several horse farms. Really pretty. I did the race in June 2014. We finished the race at Plymouth High School.

    1. Not directly. But it may have been partially responsible for the southerly flow of air on the other side of the boundary.

  26. Tons of billowing clouds, some dark, here but no sign of a storm. Our grass is winter brown and this is with watering

  27. I think we have about 2 hours left for anything to develop, then it should disappear. Activity is pretty much right where it was expected to be (as noted in the discussion above). Maybe 1 or 2 cells popped a bit further west than I thought they might .. north central MA.

  28. JP Dave… To your comment about the colors. I am just playing around with a “color of the day” for the WHW tag. The background color I tend to shift more with month and/or season.

  29. Today was another fun weather day !

    Those cumulus clouds took off fast btwn 10:30 am ish and noon down here.

    Watching those spot showers/storms pop quickly overhead, then seeing the dewpoint boundary move NW some.

    Good, good stuff !!

    Looking forward to what tomorrow may or may not bring.

  30. Looking at the last frame of the Taunton radar loop, I think that boundary is about to make its move SE, eventually out into the ocean. My guess is, dewpoint should drop in Boston by 6pm with a windshift back to W or NW.

    1. Boston Harbor is such a favored spot for these things in this set-up. This is the last gasp now. Then that’ll wrap up this event.

      So the disturbances of June 24th & 26th as advertised for many days delivered some rain to some locations. Now comes the weekend “event”. Tomorrow’s will under-perform model guidance.

        1. Everywhere. There will probably be quick area of moderate to briefly heavy rain somewhere, but it will still underperform the model “expectations”.

  33. So today marks another day of no rain at my home. At my deep valley enclave it has not rained since June 11. Today I thought it was finallh going to. A cell developed in Franklin County moving SE from the NW and then as it reached peak intenskty It suddenly shifted movement to due East. Just another example of when in drought….and how hyper local weather can be.

    Today also marks our 10th consecutive day at 85 degrees or higher with the 85 being day 1 and the 9 days since reaching a high of 87 or higher. Though average temp for the month is only about 1 degree above normal because of 4 days in the middle of the month that had morning lows in the 40s. So departure from normal can be a bit deceiving. Especially with so many sunny days and dry ground which has allowed for over achieving highs.

  34. Keeping in mind it’s a not-great-right-now model forecast for quite a ways out, but the GFS 00z temp forecast as high 50-57 in central and southern Maine and lows in the 40s there on July 4-5. BRRRR!!

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