Sunday June 28 2020 Forecast

216 Comments

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Instead of the novel you got with yesterday’s update, let’s go with a short summary for today’s. Nothing’s really changed in the outlook. We have a cold front that will move through the region slowly during today and this evening, but it’s slow enough that it really won’t make it through the entire region until sometime tonight. That means that any time starting just after daytime maximum heating, through this evening, there can be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. While not everybody will get them, those that day can see heavy downpours, briefly gusty winds, lightning, and possible small hail. So if you have outdoor plans this afternoon and/or evening, be on the look-out for that. Once the front is through we get into a northerly to easterly air flow for the first few days of the coming week, the final 2 days of June and first day of July, and with cold air aloft, the daytime heating will ignite isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Again, not a widespread rainfall situation, but something to watch for. The most likely areas for these may shift each day, from anywhere Monday to more over the interior Tuesday then more to the south by Wednesday. High pressure, centered to the north through Wednesday, should drift down across the region for a fair and warmer Thursday next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

A cold front drops down from the north sometime July 3 with a brief shower or t-storm threat, and another high pressure area from eastern Canada brings fair but not-too-hot weather for the Independence Day Weekend. Some warmth and humidity, along with a shower/t-storm risk may return early the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Continuing to cautiously lean toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

216 thoughts on “Sunday June 28 2020 Forecast”

    1. I think today will see some action locally.

      I think SPC has the atmospheric conditions correct for New England, I think they struggle sometimes with the more minute, local effects that often result in their watches being extended too far southeastward into a usually marine influenced area.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Do you think today under performs as well? Curious to know.
    SPC discussion appeared fairly bullish, but you and SAK have
    indicated many times that the SPC just doesn’t get NE.

    1. I think for the region as a whole, it may under-perform. But I also think in isolated areas, it may over-perform.

      I’m concerned about 2 things: One is a possible cluster with a rotating cell in it somewhere north central MA, northeastern MA, or southern NH late day or early evening. The other is something that fires up again later tonight possibly a little further east and/or north.

  4. Thanks TK
    It was nice to get beneficial rain yesterday. I hope they get the final round of The Travelers Championship in Cromwell, CT finished before the thunderstorms arrive. Yesterday the PGA Tour moved up the tees times to get everything done by early afternoon with the threat of thunderstorms. I am surprised they did not do that today.

  6. Off to the beach early to maximize low tide (the beach is underwater at high tide) and to try to beat potential thunderstorms.

      1. We’re at Avon Beach in Marshfield which is halfway between Burke’s Beach in Green Harbor and Duxbury Beach.

  8. Thank you, TK.

    I like the novel versions of the forecast as well as the quick summaries.

    So far, this summer’s been relatively easy to handle. I realize we’ve got two months to go, but at least the first one was manageable, with quite a number of very nice, humid-free days.

    1. I agree on that Joshua. Hopefully the tropics remain quiet. We certainly don’t need a major storm zooming up the east coast with widespread damage to property and life. We have gone through enough empty store shelves as it is since March. I do have a bad feeling that may still occur as it is with the possible second wave.

  9. Fireworks continue to go off in my neighborhood until at least 4:00 am.
    Sleep? HA!

    How about you JPD? Joshua?

      1. The only “diminishment” is that they now start later and end later until the crack of dawn.

          1. I’m probably the only person who isn’t bothered by neighborhood fireworks, but I do think it’s in poor taste to do it late at night & overnight.

            I’d actually love to see them legalize fireworks in MA for permitted use in “fireworks parks”. Far fetched idea? I don’t think so. I think it would work great! I’d be all the hell over it!

            1. Hopefully, only by qualified persons. Just a matter of time before there is a serious injury to some unqualified idiot , perhaps intoxicated,

  10. Fireworks in Back Bay are relatively infrequent. I do hear and sometimes see them. The ones I hear and see are coming from the South End, I think. I’ve heard a few on my late afternoon runs through Cambridge.

    I’m not annoyed by the fireworks, unless they happen after, say, 11:30pm. Same with my neighbors. I’m okay with hearing loud music or parties. But, it better shut down by midnight or I’m upset.

    1. Lucky you Joshua. Loud parties in my neighborhood (Dorchester) never end until 3:00 am at the very earliest. A party going until “only”midnight or so is very rare. As soon as the crack of light, the music magically stops just like it started. Literally from sunset to almost sunrise.

  11. The fireworks that are illegal I thought would increase this year as the normal 4th of july celebrations are not happening especially here in Mass.
    I have seen what fireworks can do to someone if something goes wrong or the person is being stupid so unless your a professional or have someone with experience you should not be allowed to fire off fireworks.
    People who shoot fireworks after 10 pm are inconsiderate.

    Anyways the dry air in the tropical Atlantic is being chewed away and based on what I am seeing I bet within the first two weeks of July we will have our first cape verde based system.

    1. Latest from SPC

      …Upper DE Valley to southern New England…
      An upper low will gradually dampen as it moves south across Quebec.
      A belt of 30-35 kt 500-mb westerlies should persist this afternoon
      across parts of southern NY and PA into southern New England. As the
      air mass becomes modestly unstable with MLCAPE reaching 1000-1500
      J/kg, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
      region. The setup should yield a risk for damaging winds and
      marginally severe hail.

  13. Those who favor legalization of fireworks doesn’t live in a Boston neighborhood or one outside of Back Bay. Even on a normal 4th of July makes the Esplanade fireworks seem like a tiny kids sparkler in comparison. I don’t even enjoy watching the annual concert anymore. The “all night” part is quite normal. It’s just the fact that it’s been going on since before Memorial Day that’s so sickening.

  14. Logan has an ESE seabreeze at 15 mph, with temp 81 and dp 64
    (presumable a tad drier air from off of the ocean) dps are around 70 SOuth of the city.

      1. Perhaps not, but “could” add some additional lift
        to the approaching storms. We shall see.

        Getting pretty juicy just West of Boston.

  18. Sadly, this first batch of convection looks like it wants
    to slide “just” to my North, close enough to see the dark clouds and hear the thunder, which is constant now, but NOT close enough for the rain. Perhaps enough rain will bleed southward, but I doubt it.

    1. hmm, maybe not. This thing appears to be zig-zagging, take a jog to the north, followed by a jog to the South. Getting very close.

  20. Thanks TK.

    Just saw radar OS and hope you are getting some of action

    I’m firmly in the camp of not legalizing fireworks. If I thought people would be respectful, then maybe. But we have seen in the past three months how the hope for that flew out the window.

    In addition to late at night, there are many adults and children who cannot tolerate loud noises as well of course as animals.

    2. Sadly, other than listening to thunder and watching the dark clouds slip by to my North, NOTHING happening here, at least not yet. Perhaps will get clipped by the collapsing tail of this
      cluster.

    1. Just saw a vicious bolt of lightning to my NW.
      It probably shook MassBay’s house. 🙂

      BOOM! there goes another one!

  29. Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 8pm. It is nothing but sunshine where I am and waiting to see if I get in on the action.

  33. Enjoy the storms to those who are getting them.

    I can see them looking north. Looking south,I can see the south coast sea breeze with no clouds in the sky towards the southern horizon.

  34. It’s pouring now. Nice fresh wind in the 25-35 mph range, certainly NOT 60 mph. For my location, clearly does NOT
    meet severe criteria. Nice t-storm none-the-less.

  36. Flashes of lightning and cracks of thunder and some rain in Back Bay. The ducks are happy.

  39. Thanks TK

    Looks like South Boston/Quincy area just got hammered pretty good!

    Nothing firing yet here in CT. It’s been mostly sunny hot and humid. My Acurite is registering a feels like temp of 93.

  41. Well, it finally delivered in my area.

    0.76 inch of rain in about 1/2 hour. Not too shabby.

    btw, as far as severe goes, NOT even close.

    Will there be more? time will tell.

  43. We have had a few thunderstorms in the past few hrs. here in Sudbury. Some thunder and moderate rain. But now, and for the past 30 mins. or so, loud crashes of thunder and dark skies to our north and east. Sun in and out. Bright skies to our west but noting more lines of storms to our west.

  44. The sky is really dark on the north third of our sky. Good lightning show. Think we might get clipped. Seems to be slowly sinking ESE

  45. Certainly not severe, but a nice 0.66 inch of rain. Add yesterday’s 0.16 and we’re climbing towards a whopping 1 inch. My guess is we’ll get there later today, then some more tomorrow. We’ll need to squeeze out whatever we can from the rain lemon this week, because all indicators appear to point to another prolonged dry spell after Wednesday.

  46. 12z EURO not as sharp, long range, with NNW flow around and just after the 4th.

    Yes, a cooler push for the 4th perhaps, but, todays run flattens out the NW flow to more WNW flow after the 4th and allows the heat to pour in days 8, 9 and for a good part of the region day 10.

    Lets see if we can get any consistency on this moving forward.

  47. Another cell just to my south. Hearing thunder from that one.

    It cooled to 67 here and now back up to 73.

    Another brief shower after that first one dropping another
    0.03 inch for a day total of 0.79 inch so far. We shall see if
    we add to that.

    1.77 inch on the month so far.

    1. I think today has the best cumulus clouds of the warm season so far.

      I love that west to east line of them along the pike or thereabouts.

  49. It’s been dark to my north for a while with occasional thunder, but not a drop of rain yet. Temperature down to 73 with a northeast wind after the outflow boundary came through about an hour ago. On the south side of Brockton, a few miles from me it’s still in the mid-80s with south winds.

    1. I would have liked to have seen that outflow boundary arrive in Marshfield while we were at the seawall, but we had to go before it arrived.

  50. Pretty nasty looking line out by Albany. Not sure what will happen to that as it traverses Eastward, probably not arriving
    in Boston until 7-9 PM or something like that. We shall see.
    My guess is that IF it makes it, it will be in a weakened form.

    https://imgur.com/a/G5mWfie

  52. I hear faint thunder to my north. Warning box around Springfield area. All look to not be headed here.

  53. Now I am under a severe thunderstorm warning. Doppler Radar indicated 1 inch hail just south of where I am.

  54. MassBay,
    Are you near the West Newton Cinema? Before the pandemic,
    we used to frequent that theater quite often. Nice friendly clientele and not the sometimes rude and rowdy younger crowd
    one runs into at the big chain cinemas. (ie excessive cell phone use, talking and the kicking of the seats to name a few)

  55. My son got this photo of lightning during the 1st round earlier from down stairs from me. (yes, my son lives down stairs. 10 years ago, we converted our house to a duplex and my son lives in
    the downstairs apt.)

    https://imgur.com/a/RgxdRkG

    2. Nothing wrong with that. My fiancee bought her parents house 15 years ago and added a 2nd floor that she moved into. I moved in about 10 years ago. (Her mom passed several years ago and her dad remarried and moved out, so downstairs is empty now)

  56. Within that west to east line just south of Boston is a large cell hitting Needham, Dedham and Norwood.

  57. REALLY Dark just to me South with constant thunder. No rain here, but awfully close. Sever thunderstorm warning “just” to
    my South. I see “possible” hail signature with that cell, especially far SW corner of it, in Holliston.

  58. Best thunderstorm I have seen in a while. I am over at my mom and stepdad’s big wind gusts knocked over a chair on the deck, a good size branch fell in the yard, and pea size hail.

  59. Another cell approaching Framingham that is N&W of the one
    described above. IF this one holds together, it will head right
    for me. We shall see.

  60. Also saw hail signature near Norwood.

    Wonder IF there will be any reports, or it was just extra heavy rain.

  61. No serious damage thankfully. It started with just some rumbles of thunder then it started to rain and then it ramped up with some strong wind gusts and pea size hail.

  63. The cell over Springfield wanted to expand to its southern part but is falling apart now. Line on either side of Albany seems to be struggling also. I think nothing here today but wow to the east of here has been crazy

  64. Dedham and Norwood, if the radar is accurate, have to be dealing with flash flood issues. The storms keep training over that area.

      1. I think you are correct ! I can occasionally also see purple returns on taunton’s radar and from earlier storms, Eric F has posts of hail, so I definitely think that is a hail producing cell.

      1. There is a section in Wellesley near the church on rt. 9
        that often floods. Also where rt. 9 goes under rt. 16 in front
        of the fire station in Wellesly is another area that floods.

      2. We don’t live in Framingham anymore. But I do remember that the unerpass near where the Sea And Surf restaurant used to be always flooded in heavy rains.

  65. Hang in there Vicki. I think you may see something yet. Outflow boundary may be near you and that could help pop something.

  67. And it certainly does look like the Albany line is going poof or at least breaking up into segments.

  68. Today is a great day to watch radar & sky and learn about interactions of boundaries and differences over short distances.

    Oh yeah, looks like those events on June 24 26 & 28 worked out after all. 😉

    I have been chasing since 1:30. About to go out on Round 2.

  69. Still sweltering here under partial sun and can’t buy a rain drop yet. Hear thunder from the storm firing to my NE over willington and the storms to my SW near JJ.

    Got to be some big time urban flooding happening with those training storms south of Boston.

      1. Yeah, I’m concerned about that area. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that there needed to be a water rescue from a car too deep in water.

    2. I just went out and is indeed sweltering. But a couple of raindrops drove me in and now we have fairly heavy rain. No booms yet though

  72. It’s been mostly sunny all day here in Taunton, but it looks like storms are heading this way right now. Getting dark here.

  73. I’ll have more later, but what’s happening southwest of Boston now is among the most impressive convective events I’ve seen in SNE.

    1. Its crazy to watch on radar. I wonder if we’ll see some very localized 5, 6 inch + amounts ????

  74. Omg. Three …no four. Of the most amazing bolts and claps literally together that I think I’ve ever heard

  75. Indirectly, I wonder if that south coast sea breeze may also be adding convergence and inflow of warm, humid air into these storms.

  76. Impressive event unfolding.

    Storms filling in on western edge of that line.

    South of that, SE winds and dew points 68 to 70F sending tons of tropical moisture into this line of storms.

    1. So much for my thinking that Albany line was falling apart. It was just flirting and then marrying what was already here

      1. This is what’s left of the Albany line.

        https://imgur.com/a/rd9baHy

        I think that the SPC just blew it, with the worst of it
        just South and Southwest of Boston.

        What came though my neck of the woods I would categorize as a strong storm, but NOT severe by any stretch. 🙂

  78. The convection appears to be slowing sagging southward.
    Boston “should” Be totally out of it within an hour or so.

    I am up to 0.94 inch on the day with light rain (0.16 per hour)
    still falling.

    I can imagine the amounts South of here. 3-6 inches???? We shall
    see later.

  80. Hello all…. Why do I keep singing “Train Kept a Rollin” all this afternoon 🙂

    1. Constant Thunder and plenty of lightning since about 1:45. Not much wind. Poured for about an hour or so till around 3pm…then just spotty light rain but with constant Thunder. All 3 have picked up again in the past 15 minutes.

  81. Just saw the 5pm from Norwood and they had 2.7″ of rain in 1 hour. I suspect a line from Bellingham to Franklin to Wrentham to Foxoborough may exceed that.

    To my constant point of the hyperlocality of these events. We have received 0.05″ today. Westover Air Force Base which is 10 miles south of me has had 1.5″ in the last 2 hours. Barnes ANG Base is 12 miles west of Westover. They have been shut out all day.

  84. I absolutely know we are on the tail end of this but one ear shattering crack arrives before the next lightning bolt and on and on and on.

    Very difficult for my grand who has a difficult time with loud noises.

      1. Thank you. It is easing now. I started to tell him about you and storms and then thought it might just make things worse 🙁

        1. Haha !! Probably would 🙂

          I understand how he feels though, so I’m glad to hear it is easing.

  88. This weekend rain is preventing us from enjoying the new patio fire pit & furniture. Oh well plenty of time we got a small fire in Friday night .

    1. Here as well but I’d think worse there. We arrived late to the party but are at 2.26 in 1:10

      1. I agree, though that amount probably has local streams temporarily bank full and some deep road puddles.

    2. thank goodness, Norwood has come out of the torrential rain, but not before a several inch dumping.

      Franklin, Bellingham, Milford and Mendon are now getting torrential rains.

      1. I have not watched Uxbridge so will have to check to see how they are doing. But it sits in front of mendon and Milford

  90. Maybe I’m all wet….pun may be intended….but the cell that is warned and coming right in behind one we have now is starting to move south and then East. Is the current cell over us driving that change in direction?

    1. I think the whole line is slowly sinking south with time, which is good obviously so it wont sit over the exact same area.

      6pm now, hopefully, the lower sun and less heating will start to settle these down.

      I sense the last 30 minutes the line slightly losing some intensity.

  92. Our fourth celebration was to be held today. I’m thinking by now we may have had to cancel fireworks. I have to check contract to see the time period allowed.

  93. At 603 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
    extending from Mendon to Burrillville, moving southeast at 10 mph.

    HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated.

    IMPACT…Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Minor hail
    damage to vehicles is possible.

    * Locations impacted include…
    Woonsocket, Cumberland, Franklin, Johnston, North Attleborough,
    Milford, Smithfield, Lincoln, Bellingham, Burrillville,
    Northbridge, Uxbridge, North Smithfield, Wrentham, Scituate,
    Glocester, Thompson, Blackstone, Douglas and Plainville.

  95. Norwood Hospital flooding at this time. They are trying to evacuate the ICU. The region is maxed out and the nearest ambulances are 35 minutes out!

    Neponset River in Norwood will be above flood stage.

      1. Vicki, do you still live on the south side of Sutton? I’ve been reading your posts this evening, and I am amazed that here in Willinsonville we have had mostly light to moderate rain with occasional thunder. I’m always fascinated how much different the weather in the Blackstone Valley can be over a distance of a few miles.

  97. I have a question. If your ac unit is grounded and your house is grounded can you leave AC on safely during a thunderstorm

    1. It’s like any other electronic device … an electrical surge can damage internal electronic circuitry. Safest thing is turn those types of items off when there severe wx is around, but most of us simply don’t. 🙂

      1. Thanks Longshot. I always do. But younger folks not so much. It’s the surge I worry about also.

    1. I was just checking the wunder reports. I’m on whitinsville line…literally….and am seeing widely varying reports. Are there weathers spotters who report these ? If accurate it is probably the best example of where you are matters …within miles.

  100. At the tail end of a very dry June we get buckets of rain in many places. If there is more rain tomorrow and Tuesday, we could wind up with average amounts of rain for June in some locales. That would be bizarre, especially because it looks like after Wednesday we’ll be back in a very dry pattern.

    1. Yes but Sadly it is basically useless for Gardens and lawns as if just runs off. I’m a bit afraid to check our veggie garden tomorrow

  101. Seven year old grand is learning math using weather. He knows to subtract 2 degrees if sun is hitting accurite and now how to count and divide by five for distance of lightning.

    1. Best part is that I get a report of lightning in our area and it matches what he is counting

  103. aparently cam is coming to New England on a one year deal. I am kind of surprised. I wanted to see how Stid did this year. If he went 11-5 I would have been extremely impressed with him, now I think we might not see him. 🙁

  104. I was stealing glances at the happenings in SNE in between watching the radar on what was a fairly busy day down here as well. I certainly stand by my earlier statement: one of the more impressive convective events in SNE that I can recall in terms of what happened mainly over the southwestern suburbs of Boston. Meteorologically, it was incredible to watch the interactions between boundaries and the ways cells tracked and redeveloped. I definitely have to go back and take a much closer look at the radar. It looked like something you would see on the Gulf Coast, like near Houston. A few more thoughts:

    *This storm produced wind driven severe hail, which is quite rare in SNE. It bordered on producing “significant severe” (>= 2″ diameter) hail. Very impressive.

    *Rainfall totals: Locally in excess of 5″ near Norwood, probably some hyper-localized 6-7″ amounts. Most of it over 2-3 hours. Again, very impressive.

    *Return time for the rainfall: This is only an educated guess to start and there are ways to refine it, which I hope to do, but I would estimate this was probably a 1 in 25 to 1 in 50 year event in terms of precip versus duration.

    *Being in drought helped mitigate impacts. Especially in terms of river flooding. As this was going on I was thinking about the Neponset at Norwood, an area I’m familiar with (my grandparents live in Norwood). It did flood, which is *extremely* impressive considering the antecedent conditions, but it was only minor flood stage. Had it been running higher, impacts could’ve been severe to catastrophic. The urban flash flooding was of course quite significant in spots, and isn’t as dependent on antecedent conditions.

    *Speaking of the drought, what to make of it now? Well, it’s over for some. Droughts end in floods. Region-wide, however, certainly not everyone saw heavy rain. So drought conditions still exist in many areas. There are more downpour opportunities the next few days though, which may further eat away at the coverage and severity of the drought. Going forward into July, I still do believe the pattern favors dry over wet.

    1. Awesome comment. It is always such a pleasure to hear from you and please know for all….that is not to diminish the comments from anyone else.

      I truly don’t recall anything like this in the near or even not so near past and Sutton was just on the edge and not in the middle. I am seeing photos of the street where I food shop…during noncovid time…in Uxbridge and cars with water over their tires.

      To have areas so close see hugely different amounts of rain is mind boggling. I do understand location is everything but within a half mile distance.

      No wonder weather fascinates so many

  105. Meanwhile….
    We actually ended up going out to dinner tonight and ate outside. Total rainfall today in Coventry Ct: 0.00”. Ahh, the haves and have nots…

    1. Yikes. I will happily share …is it too late. I ended up with a bagel for dinner rather than the chicken parm I’d planned sooooooo some of your leftovers for some of our rain?

  106. I chased for 8 1/2 hours on Sunday afternoon & evening, then came home and after a short break got hammered here by several cells, including a handful of fairly close lightning strikes. Three of them were under 1/2 mile away with one of them about 1500 feet to my east. I got all 3 flashes & accompanying thunders on video. The first and closest one was 11:50PM, the other 2 were over an hour later, 12:59AM & 1:00AM. There were a few others within a mile and several others within a couple miles. This went on for about 90 minutes.

  107. And no, this will not end the drought for the region as a whole. It will trim back part of the southern edge of it though. You can’t really end a drought with an event like this. Most of it runs off. But it did put a big dent into part of it. I suspect it will continue to build as we go into and through the remainder of the summer.

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