Wednesday July 1 2020 Forecast

83 Comments

8:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Change the month – change the pattern? Well, not this time, at least not today. Upper level low pressure sits over the region for one more day, with similar weather to the last few days: lots of clouds, a few showers and thunderstorms re-instigated by daytime heating, although coverage today may be down a little bit in the region overall from the last few days. Regardless, outside of flooding issues from Sunday, any rain that any area has gotten has been beneficial to putting a dent in the longer-term deficit. Finally, this low departs tonight and we get a small area of high pressure to provide a nice summer day on Thursday, but don’t blink or you’ll miss it. Down from the north comes a cold front on Friday with a push from high pressure in eastern Canada, and the wind turns northeast to east during Friday and right into Saturday – Independence Day, which I’ve been a little more concerned about weatherwise during the last couple updates. Looks to me like we will be on the cooler side of normal and see clouds dominate. What remains to be seen are the following, but all of these are a potential… 1) Thunderstorms late Thursday night ahead of the cold front. 2) Additional showers and a possible thunderstorm sometime Friday as the front pushes to the south and southwest. 3) Some drizzle or a few showers Saturday mainly from the air flow coming off the ocean. So a few details to work out. By Sunday, we should be back under a small area of high pressure and enjoy another nice day.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy drizzle and isolated showers early to mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms midday through afternoon. Highs 73-80, warmest well inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible early. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-83 shoreline, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring southwestern NH and central MA to northern RI. Highs 68-73 southern NH and northeastern MA, 73-78 elsewhere, occurring in the morning, then turning cooler during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of a shower. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday July 1 2020 Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Question: In my experience, for the most part, fronts
    dropping down from the NE don’t usually produce
    thunderstorms. Yes, Occasionally they do. Curious as
    to know why the one tomorrow night may just do so?

    Many thanks

    1. This one may be a bit tough to explain beyond an “I’ve seen this set-up before”. A couple of pockets of cold air left behind aloft, and a little bit of convergence between flow bringing the front down and a little disturbance coming out of Canada via the Great Lakes (this is the wildcard I believe). I’ll re-evaluate this off the 12z runs.

      2. Excellent! Many thanks for the explanation. Very much appreciated. I knew there had to be a little bit more
        than just a BD front moving through. 🙂

  5. Thanks, TK. Is it the thunderstorm activity in general you were/are concerned about Thursday night or their intensity?

    1. I think if they were to occur they would be isolated, but possibly intense.

      1. The new fire pit is just not meant to be used lol . Hoping to me used for upcoming 4 day weekend

  6. I can see a couple towering cumulus mixed in amongst the smaller cumulus and stratus.

    Radar showing some north shore showers and one near Hull/Hingham.

    Lets see if things pop north-south near the coast the next hour ???

  7. 12z NAM showing some of what TK is mentioning into Thursday evening.

    I believe hr 39 is 03z or 11pm/midnight on Thursday night.

    1km simulated radar has some scattered thunderstorm echos and still up to 1.000 J/Kg of Cape.

    Temps very warm and dewpoints pooling to near 70F in southern New England ahead of back door front and of course, decent NW wind aloft over southern New England.

  9. I have some sunshine going on here. Will it fuel a cell or 2?
    Time will tell. NOTHING so far as today has proven to be
    a far better day than the last 2.

    Small pop-up cells are around, but not here. There is a small
    one West of Somerville that looks to be heading this way. May not make it or pass East of my location. We shall see.

  10. So far, rainier today than yesterday, at least in Boston. I must say I did not expect that.

    Watched the news last night and on one of the forecasts it showed 0 precipitation today for Boston and between 1 and 2 inches in parts of Central Massachusetts. Obviously, it’s hard to forecast these things. But, today’s rain (especially now) in Boston is harder than at any point yesterday.

    1. Huh? maybe where you are. NOT a drop today here in JP, while it rained for a few hours yesterday. 🙂

      1. I’m in Back Bay, very close to the Charles River. Almost no rain yesterday, save a light shower late morning/early afternoon. Today, thus far, several showers, including a brief downpour 15 minutes ago. Not a lot of rain, but certainly more than yesterday.

  11. It’s been the nature of these showers and storms since Saturday. Some areas have gotten a lot of rain others very little in the way of rain. My area has been one of those areas getting the rain the past four days.

      1. True. I certainly got part of the blob that shows up as north of Boston. Again, not a lot of rain, but enough to postpone my run as it was pouring briefly about 20 minutes ago.

  14. The expected trend for most of the convective activity to take place further west and south of Boston is ongoing now…

  16. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan about tomorrow. TK is this part of th wild card you were talking about earlier?
    Unusual storm setup for tomorrow with strong northerly winds aloft and weak southerly flow at the surface. The result is long hodographs (moderate wind shear) and the potential for severe weather.

    1. Yes. The window for isolated storms may open as early as 4PM, first to the north, then trending southward. The key word here: isolated. I do not think this will turn into a very widespread type of event.

  17. One cell getting close, even if most action more to the South
    and West. One cell between Newton and Needham about 8 miles from me. We shall see. Probably will miss or go POOF.

  18. A quick downpour with bright sun and blue sky here in Dorchester just after noon.

    “The devil was beating his wife.” 😉

  19. Speaking of local showers, with an emphasis on local. So, I went on my 7 mile run. The first 2 to 3 miles is due southwest of me. When I started out there were lots of puddles, and clearly some rain had fallen in the past hour. After about 1 mile I noticed practically no more puddles, and after 2 miles none. On the Cambridge side I started seeing some puddles and evidence of fresh rainfall as I approached the Longfellow Bridge.

  21. Even though, much of the time, it’s been distant, feel like it’s been thundering a lot that last 4 days.

    1. There have been a lot of them around, which makes sense when you combine early summer heating with cold air aloft and an upper low. 🙂 We had a few instances of this early in summer 1988 before the mega heat took over. But this pattern is not quite the same, just that first similarity.

  24. Other than a very brief period of rain this PM, NOTHING here.
    NOTHING registered in the rain gauge.

    I could see convection all around, but none for me.

    We’ll see about tomorrow/tomorrow night and Friday.

    We shall see.

  25. The Charlie hole has officially been renamed the Mark hole this week. It’s pouring with a flash flood warning literally 4 miles east of me. In fact I think the center of the upper level low is right over me.

    Frustrating to keep missing out on most of the action this week. At least this isn’t snow…then I’d really be pissed!

    1. I feel for ya Mark. So sorry.
      I haven’t gotten a lot more here. About 1 1/2 inches since Sunday.

      1. We have maybe a half inch since Sunday. 0.14 today

        It’s piddly but soft and steady so I think good

  27. Actually the storm is expanding west…looks like it just started pouring back at the house!

  29. TK, the past several days remind me of that pattern in June and early July 2009 with the upper lows hanging over us. As Dick Albert used to say goodbye and good luck to this one.

    1. The last 4 days have reminded some of it, but if you look at the 2 patterns, they are vastly different.

      We’re still running a rainfall deficit and have been quite dry leading up to this. The 2009 pattern was persistently wet & cold for quite some time.

  30. Just a quick note…

    I will be unable to access my admin account to post a new blog update for a few hours, and by the time I am able to access it I will probably be on the road somewhere, soo for now just continue to comment here and also know that I really haven’t made any changes to the forecast. I will make a post later, probably from my mobile device.

    Carry on!

      1. I’m pretty sure we will see isolated thunderstorms but the question is how far south they migrate.

        2. No rain please . 4 nights to enjoy the fire pit we have not got to enjoy it yet . Tonight is the big night

      2. I think the idea of fairly scattered storms still holds and keep an eye to the north and north western horizon. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  33. Good morning. I have been awol due to a scheduled power
    outage for maintenance that went awry. Power was supposed
    to be restore by 7AM ! NOT! Restored at 10:45 AM!
    And I was woefully unprepared with both my mobile devices going dark on me. Go figure.

  34. One thing I miss about living in higher latitudes (UK and Netherlands) is the light in the evening. In the Netherlands, it’s light outside until 10:20pm. Sunset is 10:05pm, but there’s lingering light for another 20 minutes or so.

  35. July 4th weekend is always one of my favorites, it starts on the 2nd usually for my family. Usually a 3 to 4 day period full of beach, hiking and a pool party. Unfortunately not this year.

  36. Next Wed/Thurs trending hot !! Let’s see if the 12z euro agrees.

    Seeing 20C (850 mb temps) in this time period.

    1. Thank you for the update!

      if I didn’t know you were kidding after all these years then I haven’t been paying attention…

      I just updated the blog by basically making a forecast while I was walking around outside so I’m going to go read yours to see if mine is anywhere close to yours. I didn’t make too many changes anyway.

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