Thursday July 2 2020 Forecast

49 Comments

2:48PM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Apologies for the very late post today. The situation was unavoidable. I am currently on a mobile device using voice to text for this discussion so I will keep it as short as possible and hopefully it does not misinterpret my voice. Basically there are no changes of any significance to the forecast issued yesterday. After today’s brief taste of summer following a few days of cooler and unsettled weather, a cold front will drop southward through the region tonight and Friday and reintroduce cooler air to the region. The approach and passage of that front may still trigger some isolated showers and thunderstorms from late today through late this evening. While most areas will likely see nothing any place that does see one of these could experience briefly strong wind, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and possible hail. So be on the lookout for this just in case. During the day Friday cloudiness will be dominant, and there will be a cool northeasterly air flow. Areas much further inland will be more exempt from the cooling influence of the ocean as the front will have run out of steam somewhat while moving into that region. It’s presence there combined with more heating will be a focus for a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day on Friday. this would occur from southwestern New Hampshire through Central Mass into northeastern Connecticut and possibly northern Rhode Island. Areas to the east of here would be much less likely to see showers or storms of any consequence. A weak area of high pressure will try to push everything out of here on Saturday but it’s center may never get far enough south to rid at least the coastline of its cloudiness. Inland locations would have a better shot at breaking out of the clouds and being the warmest. What is left of this high pressure area should bring drier and somewhat warmer weather to the entire region Sunday, But a disturbance coming down from the northwest may trigger a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or during the evening for parts of the region. There is no real push of cooler dryer air behind that disturbance so Monday will probably just turn out to be one of those partly cloudy, seasonably warm, and moderately humid kind of summer days.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts late day. Highs 78-83 shoreline, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring southwestern NH and central MA to northern RI. Highs 68-73 southern NH and northeastern MA, 73-78 elsewhere, occurring in the morning, then turning cooler during the afternoon. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of showers mainly west of Boston early. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy coast with possible drizzle. Partly sunny inland. Chance of a shower anywhere. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mainly north of Boston late in the day. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Lows 60-67. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

49 thoughts on “Thursday July 2 2020 Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK.

    hey, I was wondering Does a week area of high pressure
    last a whole week????

    Ah, the wonders of voice to text. 🙂

    2. Yeah I figured there was at least one voice typo in there….

      because I’m a perfectionist I will fix it when I get home from chasing the isolated thunderstorm that I forecast.

  4. Thanks TK
    In the something to keep an eye on Wednesday Thursday of next week. From NWS Boston
    Hot and humid bona fide summertime conditions as the upper ridge erodes slightly and we are in SW flow at the surface with WNW flow aloft. The 700 mb jet is relatively strong to our northwest, with a look of a `ring of fire` from the northern Great Lakes to northern New England. We may be on the southern part of this, but still will have relatively high chances of thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front may focus the storms more on Thursday. But any storms Wed and Thu could be strong, with heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

      1. I am hoping we get some action next week. The thunderstorm on Sunday was one of the best I have seen in a while with pea size hail and winds that knocked over a chair on my mom and stepdad’s deck along with tree branch that thankfully fell in the yard.

  5. Nice little thunder storm over me at the moment. Some gusty winds a little lightning and a down pour. Garden variety where I am, although this stormed is severe warned, and has been for a while.

  7. Cell around Manchester NH, moving SSE. Maybe one to keep an eye on if it can maintain its intensity, with the setting sun.

    1. Co-worker just called in. He’s driving through that cell in Manchester/Hooksett, and there’s all sorts of trees down and uprooted all over the area from that storm.

      1. I’m familiar with the Hooksett area fairly well, taking rte 28, I think it is, from Hooksett to Wolfeboro many times. It has really developed up there the last 20 + years. Hopefully, everyone is ok !

  9. Thanks TK! We’ve dodged the storms so far here in Harvard but there are ongoing close misses!

    1. it says Suffolk, but looks like a miss just West of my location.
      This think is rocketing along!!!

  14. Sure looks like a Hail signature in the radar echo of this storm or
    else it is unbelievably heavy rain.

  18. I think I can see that cloud to the NW ….. plenty of heat and humidity still, feels like the warmest late evening of the summer so far.

    1. Close, but no cigar. Was almost going to shut all of the windows.
      Nope. Didn’t do it.

  20. Vicki, another cell is blowing up just North of you. You should be
    getting into it soon.

    1. Just saw that. Thanks JPD. Grandkids just in bed. Thought of would slip East of us but really blew up right over us

  23. 0.20 and may add a few in 16 minutes. But we are not even warned. Wonder what is happening east of us

  25. I chased that thing for a while, until it started to take off and shrink up, then I left it to come home. I was out for 13 hours today. And I thought 12 hours on Sunday was long. But it’s been a good test of my stamina as I get to the end of my autoimmune disease flare up. 🙂

  27. New Drought Monitor shows what I outlined would be the case…

    If you recall, the drought had been declared mostly north of I-90, with abnormally dry just to the south, while the South Coast was left out of the action. While there was definitely some beneficial rainfall during our recent temporary wet interlude, there were some down sides to it, and they are…

    * The flooding. That was not beneficial.
    * The run-off. The majority of the rain fell as downpours, and ran off, although helping the water supply in some cases, was of very limited benefit from an agricultural standpoint.
    * The heaviest rain fell in the areas that needed it least. Oh well.

    So, as expected, they have trimmed it back, but the abnormally dry / drought conditions are still VERY MUCH in effect here. No surprise. And it will get worse again.

    https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

    1. TK, I’d like to add something to your run-off point. The lake in my town, Lake Massapoag, is now closed to swimmers, boating, and fishing due to high bacteria as a direct result of the run-off. Happens every time we get a heavy rainfall like that.

      1. Very good point. Often when we have heavy rain events it will stir up a lake, or may be already “contaminated” water running into it, and counts go up.

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