Friday July 3 2020 Forecast

47 Comments

9:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

A back-door cold front has made its way across a good portion of the region this morning, and while slowing down is still keeping enough momentum to finish its journey across the entire WHW forecast area by midday today. Generous low level moisture means lots of stratus clouds, which as of the writing of this blog update at 9:30AM) have yet to reach southern RI and eastern CT, but will get there too. We’ve reached the high temperature for the day at this point in most areas, with any additional rise very brief, before temperatures steady out or slide slowly back during the remainder of the day. As for thunderstorm development today, it will be confined to where the warm air is, i.e., well to the west. Remnants of these may get into Worcester County and eastern CT and even parts of northern and western RI later in the day or this evening, but that should be it for those. We may also see a shower or thunderstorm briefly visit Nantucket or the elbow of Cape Cod around midnight tonight or the early hours of Saturday due to an inverted trough nearby, but that will push offshore, and during the day Saturday the region will just be left in a layer of marine air and onshore (easterly) air flow. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side, especially at the coast, where cloudiness will also be the most stubborn. Inland locations have a better chance of seeing clouds break for some sun at times. A weak trough may cause a sneaky shower to visit the NH Seacoast in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. During the day Sunday we’ll get into a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching trough, and this will pretty much eradicate the marine layer and allow the region to warm up. It’ll also be rather humid Sunday, and with the approaching disturbance from the north, expect thunderstorms to ignite across northern New England during the afternoon, then making their way down, at least in isolated to scattered form, late in the day or evening. Some of these may be on the strong side. Early call on the areas most likely to be impacted are south central and southeastern NH and eastern MA, but cannot rule them out in any area. So while not the best weather for Independence Day Weekend, certainly not the worst either. When we get to early next week, warm and humid weather will be in control Monday and Tuesday, and while weather systems are weak, there will be a couple disturbances nearby and those, with the help of any sea breeze boundaries can help pop some showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours, and of course outflow boundaries from these can help spark additional development.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Late afternoon showers possible central MA, northeastern CT, and RI. Highs 68-75 occurring by late morning, then steady or slowly falling temperatures thereafter. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH near the coast, except variable to eventually NE up to 10 MPH in central MA to northeastern CT.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Possible drizzle. Chance of showers central MA to northwestern RI early. Risk of a brief shower or thunderstorm mainly near Nantucket late night. Lows 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy coast with possible drizzle. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny inland. Highs 65-70 coast, 71-76 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A brief shower possible near the NH Seacoast late night. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW-N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms, becoming variable under 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

A weak southwesterly flow is expected. Humidity will be higher and there will be a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms from time to time, with temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

A more zonal west to northwest flow pattern is expected with limited shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

47 thoughts on “Friday July 3 2020 Forecast”

      1. Thank you both. I love reading it also. They saw the future so clearly. I truly believe they were gifted beyond what we understand

        The constitution of Massachusetts outlines by John Adams is the oldest working constitution in the world. Our US constitution is based on it.

  3. Thanks TK !

    Congrats on another great weather prediction, the isolated severe storms yesterday.

    1. Thank you. 🙂
      As a met, the first rule is never let a good forecast go to your head. You’ll look foolish one way or another soon enough. 😉

      Anyway, here’s a photo of the storm over Manchester NH as seen from Seabrook shortly after 7PM Thursday evening. This photo is a decent illustration of what Ryan H. had tweeted about, regarding the light southerly surface wind and the strong northerly wind aloft. Knowing that we are looking WNW here, you can literally see these things taking place (with a little imaginary animation).

      https://scontent.fbed1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/74667369_10158584231827265_823153667678448497_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=skH4TPUQwWYAX-Atvcu&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-1.fna&oh=727d315f5555209eb4617e7854dfd3d1&oe=5F248534

    1. Excellent stuff!

      This morning I’m listening to a selection of country favorites, both instrumental & vocal. I’m not the world’s biggest country music fan, but I like the vibe once in a while. Today’s the day. Tomorrow, I’ll be listening to a large selection and grand variety of music ranging from patriotic classics and favorites to good old American summertime songs. 🙂

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I would like to echo Tom’s sentiments on your forecast
    of possible potent nocturnal thunderstorms last
    night. Great job!

    Pretty intense, even if it was a miss for my by about 10 miles. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK!

    Backdoor fronts really hits the spot this time of year, as opposed to April/early May.

    Ahhhhhhhh… 🙂

  11. Wow captain. Thank you for sharing that awesome medley. I just blasted it through the house……three times.

  12. Thanks TK, and I echo the others, spot on with the isolated severe risk last evening.

    I agree: Sunday looks interesting to me. Still a little hazy on how it would play out, as it’s not really a classic severe weather synoptic pattern. But some of the model soundings look supportive of a severe weather risk, and probably the best (conditional) tornado environment of the season so far in SNE.

    2. Yes. Was talking “behind the scenes” with a colleague about this. I’m quite intrigued by Sunday’s potential, and it may be only a few cells or a couple clusters, as opposed to a big widespread thing. I’ll be ready to chase if necessary.

  14. Thanks TK and Happy Birthday Ace!

    TK, any thoughts on shower/thunderstorm activity making it into Nantucket early next week? We are heading there for a few days Sunday – Tuesday. NWS has pretty much eliminated any risk of showers/storms from the forecast for the island with the exception of a chance of showers Monday night. Thanks.

    1. For the most part it looks good. Can’t rule out patches of fog. Can’t rule out a shower risk both late Sunday evening to early Monday morning, and again Monday evening, but it’s not appearing that either will be a high risk. Tuesday, we may see more mid level cloudiness in response to a disturbance moving in from the NW.

      1. Thank you! I can deal with a shower risk at nights, just hoping for mostly dry weather during the daytime hours when we will be biking around the island and spending some time at the beaches.

  15. Having a chuckle watching the 12z run of the Euro. Except that it is 2020 and we’ĺl be camping on Cape Cod and sure, an upper level low evolving into something that moves north up the east coast ….. gonna happen. 🙂 🙂

    1. And a nice benchmark track to boot! It doesn’t deliver a whole lot of rain though so you should be fine 🙂

      Speaking of the 12z Euro, it looks toasty for next Friday with highs in the mid 90’s. But short of that, nothing abnormally hot in the long range for early July.

    2. The Great East Coast 2020 hurricane will be four weeks from tomorrow, August 1, the rescheduled date for my son’s high school graduation. Either that, or all-time record breaking 105 degrees on the football field.

      2020…gonna happen! 🙂 🙂

  16. Pouring here now. Temp has dropped from the mid 80s to upper 60s. About a quarter inch so far in the rain gauge and over a half inch now for the first 3 days of July with more on the way into this evening. Already a better start to July than June in the precip front!

    Ended up with only 1.88” total for June. About average now on the year though with 23.34” at the halfway mark of 2020.

      1. You’re welcome. I’ve played your medley several more times. It’s a great time for patriotic music.

        Another favorite

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy6AOGRsR80

        It was first sung in public in the church we attended when in framingham (Plymouth Congregational Church) and sister church to the one I attend in Sutton

  20. The set up for the Atlantic does not rule out a system forming off the east coast of the US next week.

    In terms of the tropics lots of factors are starting to point to conditions becoming more favorable in the middle to end of this month.

  21. Thank you, TK. Hope you’re coping well with your auto-immune flare-up.

    Enjoy Nantucket, Mark. Beautiful time of year to be there, near the benchmark.

    Happy Birthday, Ace!

    Happy Birthday, America! I’ve played this song so many times on July 4th weekend that my vinyl record is scratched. I do have a CD, and even that will eventually start skipping: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOfkpu6749w

  23. Sometimes during the winter, there are those model runs that you want to print ….. you know they will never happen, but the 4 projected snowstorms in a row are amazing.

    Summer version of this tonight on the 00z GFS. 594-597 dm heat dome for a good chunk of the country, for days, with 80F dew points in the Midwest and 594-597 dm heights right into New England as well.

    1. This, to me, appears to be a very bad run, rooted out of a mishandling of low pressure areas near and off the East Coast.

  25. Latest CPC 6-10 day Outlook…hot & wet. YUCK!!!

    Hot & dry out west. Pretty much “hot” everywhere.

    1. The entire country is not going to be “hot”. The ridge stays out West.

  26. SPC for tomorrow:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    …Southern New England…
    A cold front is expected to move across the Northeast states Sunday
    afternoon, ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to move through
    later Sunday evening. Instability will likely be modest, but deep
    northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to moderate vertical shear,
    which could support a few bowing multicell segments capable of
    damaging wind gusts.

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