Saturday July 4 2020 Forecast

88 Comments

8:43AM

COMMENTARY

We may be in the midst of events we did not picture just one year ago on the country’s birthday, but it is the country’s birthday, and this should be not only a time to reflect where we have been and where we are going, hopefully learning from the mistakes made along the way, but also a time to celebrate the nation, because even if there are questions about decisions and methods of handling things, disagreements on what is what, there is one thing that remains. We are all one country under one flag. Whether you are native to this land, or descendant of the many who have travelled to it, you are part of this one, and should be regarded as such. I am hopeful that we can heal the wounds and fix the errors going forward. But we need everybody to find a little bit of that hope. Send that message to your family and your friends. Ask them to do the same. We’ve had enough bad spreading among us. Now it’s time to spread some good. Happy Independence Day one and all! Happy Birthday United States of America!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

The WHW forecast area remains entrenched in the marine layer this Saturday morning, but we will see an erosion of that layer take place gradually today and tonight, and more completely during Sunday, which in itself may be a very interesting weather day. But first, a rather calm day today, just lots of clouds, which do erode especially away from the coast. How quickly this occurs will determine how much sun arrives and for how long. So today’s full temperature range on the forecast takes into account that uncertainty. I’m not advocating the use of personal fireworks in areas where they are illegal, but if you happen to be “viewing” them somewhere this evening, the weather will cooperate. Onto Sunday: An interesting set-up for thunderstorms, not a widespread outbreak, but warmer and more humid air at the surface, cooler aloft and a fairly vigorous disturbance coming down from the northwest. We will see a risk of thunderstorms, favoring southern NH and eastern MA, during the afternoon and evening. Some of these may be strong to locally severe, so we need to eye it closely. Additional kickers for activity may include a sea breeze boundary, and any outflow boundaries leftover by possible activity occurring offshore in the pre-dawn hours as well as any early showers and storms that may pop up. I’m making a minor change to the forecast going into early next week. Behind Sunday’s disturbance, and I should have known, comes a little push of high pressure from eastern Canada, which means Monday will be a day of northerly to easterly wind but with dry weather. Then as the high slips off to the southeast, the wind will turn more southeasterly on Tuesday, which may feature more cloudiness as a warm front approaches. This will set up a more humid and warmer day Wednesday, with a warm front passing and a cold front approaching – a set-up for possible thunderstorms.

TODAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy start. Clouds break for sun, especially away from the coast, during the day. Highs 68-75 within about 10 miles of the coast, 75-82 further inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Brief shower possible near NH Seacoast overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80m, coolest coast. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 81-88, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A piece of the upper level ridge from the West may move into the East will increase the risk of a few hotter days during this period, and we’ll have to watch for a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as well.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

The ridge center re-forms well to the west, leaving this area in a northwesterly air flow, which features a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from passing disturbance, and temperatures generally near to slightly above normal.

88 thoughts on “Saturday July 4 2020 Forecast”

    1. Somewhat. The disturbance tomorrow is characteristic of the general set-up. We’ll probably see more of that later too once the ridge reorganizes and re-centers west again.

  2. TK totally agree and I could not have said it any better . Happy 4th to you and your family and to all W.H. Families. And thank you for this blog

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I will re-post the SPC information regarding tomorrow:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    …Southern New England…
    A cold front is expected to move across the Northeast states Sunday
    afternoon, ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to move through
    later Sunday evening. Instability will likely be modest, but deep
    northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to moderate vertical shear,
    which could support a few bowing multicell segments capable of
    damaging wind gusts.

  4. Well written TK.

    After a really good 2020 in identifying pattern setup, duration, and evolution and recognizing model error, I sure underestimated the rainfall potential of the last 7-10 days or so. I put together a list of rainfall totals since last Saturday (the day severe didn’t really happen) throughout a cross-section of regional reporting sites. The amounts vary greatly and points to the difficulty of identifying where the wet spots are and who did make significant progress in alleviating drought concerns.

    I do think the pattern does move towards drier more like June as July progresses.

    Tomorrow will be interesting, regardless of actual weather outcomes, particularly east of 495.

    Rainfall Totals beginning 6/27
    Norwood 4.27
    Hartford Brainard 3.48
    Chicopee Westover 3.43
    Worcester 2.07
    Plymouth 1.70
    Boston 1.65
    Bedford 1.38
    Providence 1.34
    Hyannis 0.96
    Windsor Locks 0.94
    Lawrence 0.90

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Well written. As you know I’ve spent the weekend sharing our country’s songs on FB

    This was one of last night’s post….

    This is our country. There are so many negatives but I pray we can focus on positives also. What says it better than our music on a day we all celebrate

    Tristan…..this one is for you.

    Oddly….it just started to play here

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxOicDyWQLk&app=desktop

  7. Happy Fourth to all!

    Enjoy a great day and weekend with family and friends!

    104 degrees in Boston in 1911! Remembering Bloomer Girl baseball in Taunton on that day! I’d take Bloomer Girl baseball today after a spring of no sports!!!! 🙂

    Thanks as always, TK!

    Best to all! God Bless America!!!!

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Great commentary. You’re a master with words, a teacher, and one who provides a sage, grounded perspective on what unites rather than divides us.

    I am critical of the U.S. at times (and this predates Trump, believe me!), but as you know I love this country. I appreciate our uniqueness, yes, even the warts, if you will.

    I’ve always been a flag person. When I lived overseas I carried with me, put it on the wall of every room or apartment I inhabited, an old American flag. I still have it, along with several other American flags.

    Our grand social experiment of 244 years has endured many crises. It will overcome this one, too.

    1. Good comment, Joshua. It is an absolutely right to be critical, but I don’t think it is of our country as much as some of the tactics of our leaders ….on both sides. Even then,…with two exceptions in my lifetime ….I’ve seen positives in those same leaders. Unfortunately, the current view is if you do not agree, you also do not love America. We forget that we were founded on protest and dissent……something very much encouraged by our Founders for future generations.

      Our flag will always give me chills as does our National Anthem. She can struggle and we are, but we have before and we will again.

      1. I agree with you, Vicki.

        Dissent and self-criticism, rather than group-think and smug self-satisfaction, are American.

        It’s why under communism dissidents in Eastern Europe longed for American values and culture, more so than Western European.

    1. 15 hours ago, this had just a 10% chance of developing within the next 5 days. The National Thunderstorm Naming Center is playing games again.

      Tropical Weather Outlook
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
      800 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

      For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

      Showers and thunderstorms have persisted during the past several
      hours in association with a small low pressure system located about
      midway between Florida and Bermuda. Some gradual development of
      this system is possible during the next day or two while the low
      moves generally east-northeastward. By Sunday night, however,
      environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
      significant development to occur.
      * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
      * Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

      $$
      Forecaster Stewart

      1. I don’t really mind the “0 to 100” factor, that usually happens at least once or twice a year. However, as has been the case multiple times already this year, I do strongly question whether it meets the definition of a tropical cyclone.

      1. Not at the coast. 66 at the airport while it is 81 at Norwood. My equipment, now mostly in the sun is reading 82, which means it’s probably 78 or 79 here or thereabout. Huge difference over 6 miles!!!!

        1. I’m heading that. We are 81 with 63 DP and gentle breeze. Top 10 in Sutton. I’m working on sending your way

  16. Latest from SPC for tomorrow, updating about 25 minutes ago.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    …New England…
    An upper trough will be affecting New England on Sunday, with
    northwesterly flow aloft and rather cool mid-level temperatures.
    Parameters appear conditionally favorable for scattered strong
    storms capable of gusty winds and hail. The primary uncertainty
    involves convective coverage due to relatively dry mid-level air and
    weak low-level convergence. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk
    over parts of ME/NH/MA where model solutions are more aggressive
    with convective coverage/intensity. However, risk might need to
    extend westward into VT and eastern NY in later updates if potential
    of initiation increases.

    2. On the radar simulations I saw this morning, looks like 2 opportunities tomorrow, one from late morning thru early afternoon and then again, maybe late evening onward.

  17. If there is thunderstorm action tomorrow I look to be missing out on it at the moment.

    1. How much rain did you receive yesterday JJ ?

      I saw that Bridgeport CT got nearly 4 inches of rain in 3 hrs.

  18. Throwing out that the models didn’t really pick up on the bubble of eastern Canada high pressure for Monday, until 48-72 hrs beforehand, that is now resulting in the cooler Monday temps, 2 days from now.

    With that said ……

    There is a persistent signal for an impressive heat down developing in the country, maximizing mid month, with 500 mb heights anywhere from 597-600 dm underneath it.

    This could set up some region of the country to experience a memorable heat wave and I think it’s a watcher. Whether or not New England comes under its grips to be determined.

      1. It’s bad enough with the Summer of Covid without it being
        95-105 with high dew points!!!

      2. I hope so, JpDave. I’m sure some back door front or upper level low that could develop under such a heat dome will somehow keep the main effects either very brief or away altogether from New England.

              1. Well, I’m concerned about Mrs JpDave and others who either don’t have access to AC or don’t fare well in the heat and humidity.

  20. The heat dome I’m referring to is seen on the 12z euro at hr 144, developing in the Southwest US, with heights of 594 dm.

    Separately, we’ll have warmed up under a broader area of high heights, 585-588 dm, with an upper level low south of it in the southern mid Atlantic. Wonder what the rest of this run will do with that ???

    1. Looks like we continue with winds off of the ocean with rain at times. I’ll take that over the heat!

  21. This ceases to amaze me, even though I know the reason(s) why!!

    68 at the airport, 82 at Norwood. Reading 82 here in the sun, which still means 78 or 79 here.

    1. In my neighborhood, we’re probably closer to the 68F. The low clouds and sun continue to battle.

  22. Sun has been out in pembroke & it really has warmed up fast . Happy 4th all .

  23. The euro keeps that heat dome in the southwest. This solution looks a lot more climatological reasonable.

      1. Right dry heat! huh! I have been to Las Vegas in the Summer, so Believe me I know what “dry” Heat is! And let me tell you
        114 degrees if Freakin HOT!!!! It’s horrible! Unbearable!’
        They can have it!

    2. also has that low forming off the east coast, and a tropical wave that has had my eye for a while coming off the African coast around mid month. Of course all these models have been changing non-stop with different features.

  24. This summer has been really nice thus far. These periods of relatively cool weather provide me with energy to take on the heat and humidity, which hasn’t had staying power. Of course, that can change.

    Meanwhile at Hotham in Australia it’s been a snowless winter until today, a nice 24cm fell overnight. Looks like the resort will finally begin to look in mid-winter form. https://www.mthotham.com.au/on-mountain/conditions/snow-weather

  25. Vicki,
    In addition to Rocky My Heart, I watched another movie
    on Netflix called Ride Like A Girl. I think you may enjoy that one
    as well.

    2. Thanks JPD. That one is on both my oldest granddaughters and my list. I’m happy to hear you enjoyed. My youngest has me watching sweet magnolias on Netflix. Although it isn’t really filmed in charleston, I’m really enjoying. It’s hallmark like but might be worth a peak for you and Mrs OS

  28. 85 59 dp calm partly sunny. In my world it don’t get better than this.

    Back to your regularly scheduled naming of a not tropical system…and people wonder why l left MDL / NCEP / NWS / NOAA after 12 years and that was all the way back in 2009….

  29. Joshua, can you translate that 24 cm into “inches” please? Soooo glad we didn’t go metric years ago and remained English. One of the few good decisions our government made AFAIC.

    2. Haha. Mac used to chuckle because he grew up using metric. I am with you. But part May…..just may…have been from a very slight….again slight..stubborn streak I have because he liked to tease me in his special way 😉

  31. National News on TV (NBC) touting high temps 88-96 as a “dangerous heatwave”. Well, technically, yeah, in some areas perhaps. But upper 80s doesn’t qualify, and dangerous heatwaves used to really be more like temps middle 90s to lower 100s, at least back in the 1980s and 1990s. But I guess in 2020, everything is dangerous. Watch out for flying snakes! 😛

    2. there are flying snakes on St. Thomas USVI or more like falling snakes… so do the lizards.. They too can fly 😛

  32. Quick review of 18z guidance … no changes for the most part. Storm potential may be in distinctly 2 stages: One with a sea breeze boundary, then one with the short wave passage later.

  33. At the risk of sounding cranky, and I’m not really. I just ate some great pizza and am having a relaxing day, despite not being in my favorite place in Boston, but I just have to say this…

    I absolutely detest the phrase “spin up of a tornado” or when an on-air person uses “spin-up” to make it sound less threatening. No. It’s a tornado. A tornado is a tornado. If you think there may be a threat of a tornado, use the word tornado. The public will actually benefit by not sugarcoating things.

    Ok, back to your regularly schedule blog now. 🙂

  35. Beautiful evening. Sitting outside by the fire pit listening to all of the private fireworks being shot off. I’ve never heard so many in my life. I love it.! Happy Independence Day to all!!
    South shore kid I hope you can finally enjoy that fire pit you’ve been anxiously been waiting to fire up.

    1. We had s’mores earlier and are watching the POPs tribute now. It sure has been a glorious day out our way

      Happy fourth SC

  36. JP Dave, I laughed about your response to my saying that with the heat dome it may get to 114F in Phoenix, but at least it’s dry heat. A friend of mine moved to Bakersfield, California 10 years ago for a job. He came back to Boston after 3 months, because he found the dry heat totally unbearable. He’s an outdoors person, and originally from Ireland. He couldn’t do the things he’s accustomed to outdoors. To this day, he’ll say, “yeah, right, dry heat, ha …”

    1. Hahaha. Two of Macs cousins and a slew of family members love in AZ. Years ago I mentioned dry heat and I thought I’d be run out of the reunion. They say the same. We were also in Spokane early 90s or maybe late 80s and temp at this time of night was 114. It was plain nasty.

  37. Someone commented on the metric system. Perhaps Philip. I like the logic of the metric system, whether it’s measuring temperature on the Celsius scale, or milliliters and liters, or millimeters, centimeters, and meters, kilometers, etc … I grew accustomed to the metric system while living overseas. But, I must say I also like the system we adopted from the English, and also from a peculiar German scientist named Daniel Fahrenheit. There’s something eccentric and weird about our American/English measurements, which I find amusing.

    1. Philip and Vicki. And Mac having spent his first couple of decades overseas would agree. Actually, he may have used wording similar to yours 😉 🙂

  38. Yawn….Couldn’t sleep this morning, so here I am looking at the discussion and charts.

    SPC still has us in a marginal risk, although the expanded
    the area Westward.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    discussion:

    …New England…

    Notable mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to approach northern
    New England during the day. Low-level convergence is not expected to
    be particularly focused ahead of the short wave, but a weak boundary
    should settle to near the international border by 18z, then advance
    to near the Atlantic Coast by 06z. A narrow corridor of stronger
    low-level heating should be noted near the wind shift, and this is
    expected to aid buoyancy for potentially robust thunderstorms. Have
    extended 5% severe probs northeast along this boundary to account
    for somewhat greater risk for gusty winds/small hail with this
    activity. Otherwise, stronger buoyancy across southern New England
    is expected to support isolated severe thunderstorms by 21z. These
    storms will spread southeast during the evening with mainly a wind
    threat.

    1. In looking over everything from the HRRR, NAMs, SREF and HREF in addition to the NCAR ARW WRF 15km Forecast,
      I have come to the conclusion that although the risk for
      tornadoes today is low, it is NOT 0. Even last night at 11,
      AJ Burnett indicating that there was a chance of a tornado or 2, even though the risk was low.

      Here is the Vortex Generation index from the WRF:

      https://imgur.com/a/GKMnD44

      VGP = Vorticity Generation Parameter. The VGP is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.
      For additional information, please see:
      Rasmussen, E.N., and D.O. Blanchard, 1998: A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1148-1164.

  41. Latest SPC outlook updated 15 minutes ago:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    …New England…
    Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop this
    afternoon — perhaps in a couple of episodes — near a subtle
    surface trough and convergence line across the northern and western
    parts of the outlook area. Isolated hail and damaging to marginally
    severe gusts should be the main concern.

    Though near-surface flow will be weak, MLCINH will be as well, with
    only subtle kinematic boundary-layer forcing needed for convective
    lift in concert with diurnal heating. This will occur as the strong
    mid/upper shortwave approaches from QC, with associated cooling/
    destabilization aloft contributing to a favorable convective
    environment. Sufficient low-level moisture is in lace to support a
    narrow corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in northern ME, increasing
    to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE south-southwestward across the eastern
    remainder of New England. Though low-level shear will be
    constrained by the weak speeds, veering with height will contribute
    to 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes, and approximately straight
    low/middle-level hodographs. This indicates potential for a blend
    of multicell and somewhat-organized supercell modes.

Comments are closed.