Monday July 6 2020 Forecast

36 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 6-10)

About 90% of the area starts the day under a blanket of stratus clouds today as our cooler air deliver behind the front was of the marine variety once again, due to orientation of high pressure to the north behind last night’s passing cold front and thunderstorms. But this area of clouds will erode away today as dry air works in, and most places will eventually see sunshine. But more changes are coming, and clouds move back in for Tuesday ahead of a warm front. This front may trigger a shower or thunderstorm for parts of the region Tuesday night, and it will lead a new batch of summertime humidity into the region for Wednesday through Friday. A couple disturbances in the region may trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms in some locations both Wednesday and Thursday. The question mark for Friday is whether or not we get enhanced moisture from the northeastward / northward movement of a tropical disturbance currently in the Gulf of Mexico, so we will watch that during the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 75-82. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

The July 11-12 weekend forecast hinges at least partially on what happens with the tropical moisture to the south, so for now just leaving it at a risk of showers and thunderstorms and will work on the details during the week. Somewhat drier air should follow this without any major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Still eyeing a shift to a little more zonal flow, warmer, and limited shower/storm risks.

36 thoughts on “Monday July 6 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I am going to make a re-post of something I posted at the
    end of the previous blog earlier this morning.

    JpDave
    JULY 6, 2020 AT 6:43 AM
    Just read all of your posts. Exciting day.

    I just couldn’t abandon my wife and join in while the action was going on. I did have my phone with me and watching radar scope the whole way.

    We had quite the light show, but as happened with phase one,
    the main cell that came through with phase 2 was a near
    miss just to the West. We did catch a direct hit with a follow-up
    weaker cell that delivered 0.43 inch of rain.

    NOTHING remotely severe in my neighborhood, but could
    see how bad it was just to our West. Closest lightning strikes
    were in Hyde Park and W. Roxbury with bulk of strikes over
    rt. 128 and West of there. Could see Weston, Wellesley, Needham, Dedham, Westwood and Norwood getting pounded and points West and SW of there.

    Most interesting day for sure and I would like to say one more
    time what an absolutely IMPRESSIVE bit of forecasting turned in by TK. Simply an amazing job by a most skilled forecaster.

    On Phase one, Impatient me gave up too soon, but BOOM it
    sure did materialize and it was a near miss for me, but it was
    there to be sure!

  3. Thank you, TK. Excellent forecasting yesterday. And always.

    It was absolute amazing how vivid the lightning was here and in Uxbridge. I know we often see it in the distance but I’ve rarely seen it as vivid. It’s what many used to mislabel heat lightning brought on only by a hot day.

    1. If my memory serves me well, I do believe that I knew at a pretty
      young age that there really was no such thing as heat lightning
      and that it was simply lightning visible from a distant storm.

      1. That doesn’t surprise me, JPD. You have such an inquisitive mind.

        I’ve said here several times that my moms fear of thunder is actually what started my fascination. I didn’t learn until I was older that, even though she was afraid, she had an excellent understanding of it. I recall at a young age her debating with friends and relatives that there was no such thing as heat lightning.

        We had a professor from MIT where I worked….Chester L. Dawes…..who specialized in ferroresonace, among other things. I would sit and listen to him for hours. He was a true gentleman’s gentleman. He confirmed my mom’s belief that what folks saw was not heat lightning.

  6. SSK, happy birthday. Did you reach that big milestone
    birthday yet? or getting closer?

    Have a great day!!

    1. I was closer to the big evening cell that totally missed Logan.
      I got a piece of that and then a weaker follow-up cell.

  11. Thanks, TK…
    Superb job with the weekend’s analysis! Spot on!

    Have a great day, SSK!

        1. As I have said, it’s only HH most of the time, but this summer we haven’t even really had much of the first H. Just episodes of the second H with modest warmth. And that will generally continue with brief interludes of heat here and there.

          I don’t think we go into any sustained heat episodes much of this summer. Mean ridge West, a lot of NW flow aloft in the Northeast and even though will trend drier after the tropical moisture from the south later this week, we’ll be seeing additional “ridge rider” episodes for our t-storm chances.

  15. According to Ch. 7, 70+ dewpoints from Wednesday until further notice through the weekend. Y-U-C-K!!! 🙁

  17. Absolutely glorious evening in south sutton.

    And icing on cake is we have either two or three bears. One a mile or so from here

  18. Hi Captain – yes, I have been in today! Not on radar though. Very busy day. A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for the Philadelphia area. Numerous reports of both severe weather and flash flooding in the area.

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