Tuesday July 7 2020 Forecast

47 Comments

7:48AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 7-11)

The only adjustment to today’s forecast from yesterday’s is to slow timing of larger scale features and synoptic systems a little bit, but the overall picture remains the same: warm front passage tonight / early Wednesday, trough hanging around the area Wednesday and Thursday, all mechanisms that can help kick off some shower and thunderstorm activity, though it will be rain-free far more of the time than it is raining in any given location. Tropical moisture from the south still looks as if it will make it up this far and give us a better chance of widespread rainfall Friday night into Saturday. How quickly it exits on Saturday is a question at this time, but even a quicker exit would still leave the atmosphere ripe for additional shower/thunderstorm development during the day.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm overnight. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Lingering tropical moisture brings a risk of showers/thunderstorms July 12. Drier weather July 13-14. Disturbance from the northwest may bring some unsettled weather for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Ridge position well to the west, northwesterly air flow aloft, limited shower/thunderstorm risks, but when they occur they can be potent. Temperatures near to above normal.

47 thoughts on “Tuesday July 7 2020 Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So the slight risk overnight would be due to possible warm
    front activity? thanks

      1. Thank you sir. Always appreciate how you take time
        to answer bloggers questions. Part of the reason that this
        site is so special.

  4. Thanks TK.

    After this week, at least there will be no more talk of “abnormally” dry conditions anywhere in New England.

    If anything, will widespread flooding be a factor for Saturday?

    1. NWS indicates that it “could” be a possibility.

      However, heavy rainfall
      looks fairly certain with this system given a very potent tap of
      tropical moisture…PWATs may cross into the 2.5-3 inch range! That
      would be 2-4 standard deviations above normal for mid July and would
      lead us to start thinking about the possibility of some flooding
      issues.

    1. That track looks to be a rare summer nor’easter.

      DO NOT USE THIS MAP TO MAKE DECISIONS. SEEK OFFICIAL INFO.

      Lol 😀

    1. Thanks Jimmy. So far, more of a NNE event with Boston just out of reach on the southern end.

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Gov Baker about to talk on EEE for MA. It’s a bit early this year. It and West Nile tend to show up late July.

    2. Lions and tigers and bears, OH MY!!

      They discovered the plague in China.

      Then when we get to flu season!(@&#*&!*@&#*!&@*#(&!(@*&#

      Saw a Doctor from Texas yesterday say that there were 2 kinds
      of people in Texas: Those that have Covid and those that will
      get it.

      1. Wow. Such a true and tragic comment. Similar to Macs cousin who said AZ is literally a live free or die state

  9. Don’t worry about the misplaced messages. It’s bound to happen now and again. it really hasn’t happened as often as I thought it might, so no biggie. 🙂 I’m not even going to bother moving them.

  10. Absolute glorious day. I had a curbside pickup near older daughter so stopped to sit outside and chat. Just perfect

  11. Today’s 12z and 18z runs seem to have trended slightly further west with that coastal disturbance at the end of the work week.

    I wonder if that increases severe potential when that passes through. (Waterspouts and short lived tornadoes)

    It will be an extremely tropical environment and ahead of that low, the sfc winds probably will veer towards SE.

  12. From Ryan Hanrahan
    We’ll have to watch a coastal low moving toward Southern New England late Friday/early Saturday for heavy rain and some gusty wind. Can’t rule out an isolated tornado either given strong low level shear. This is on top of the tomorrow afternoon/evening storm threat.

      2. Steady rain should be out of here early in the day the way it looks right now.

  13. I find these dewpoints interesting:

    Logan = 53F
    Worcester = 63F

    One would expect the reverse.

    1. The boundary is coming from the southwest. Big dewpoint shift in a short time with it too, which is by Worcester, but not Boston.

  14. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/98L_tracks_00z.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#98L

    00z Hurricane models say up over SE Mass and the intensity projections might indicate a tropical depression or perhaps even a low end tropical storm passing through.

    Thankfully, the air remains cool, but low stratus arrived around 7:30 pm and we can definitely feel the air changing to higher humidity. I am glad we are getting in 2 camping nights with fresh air. It’s really nice to sleep in the camper with the windows open. I have a feeling it will be A/C at night the rest of the week.

    I don’t know if the big currents of the Cape Cod Canal are helping out, but the jelly fish we have seen a lot of are not down here, which is nice.

  15. If this was winter time a lot of us snow lovers would not be happy the track being shown by most of the guidance.

  16. The isolated pop up downpours expected late night have indeed started to form near the South Coast. These won’t be too widespread, but if you’re under one, you’ll know it.

  17. A lot of mixed messages on TV media for weather at 11PM. This is not a criticism, just observation, and I will not point out specific people or stations because technically I have no issues with any of this, the point being that the information / opinions diverge…

    Channel A: Thursday and Friday will be great beach days.
    Channel B: Thursday will be a good day for the beach. Friday, not so much, as clouds rapidly thicken up.

    Channel C: Thunderstorms will fade quickly once getting into Massachusetts late Wednesday.
    Channel D: We’re concerned with thunderstorms holding together into Massachusetts Wednesday.

    Well, someone will be right, and someone won’t. 🙂

    1. Well, we all know that Channel ‘WHW’ will be the one to turn to with the correct forecast in the end…as usual. 😉

      1. And come to think of it, that kind of divergence would be expected moreso in winter than summer. Does this mean that the models are all over the place?

        1. It means the broadcast mets are not skilled enough to wade through the model mayhem. Save for the crew here of course.

          I was particularly disturbed by the hype presented by
          channel 5. They made it sound like Armageddon! Seriously, the lead on was about a threat of severe thunderstorms!
          So much so, my wife wanted to cancel our food order for today. I finally convinced her otherwise. I told if we were
          to get a T-storm, it would be more towards evening our
          evening itself and not in the middle of the afternoon.

          Then I read the lastest SPC where it said activity could begin as early as 15Z. I sure hope that meant more to the N&W. We shall see.

          My money is on whatever TK says. Time and time and time again, his forecasts have out shined the local broadcast mets and that includes Harvey, who I really think has lost a few miles per hour off his fastball.

  19. This is from the latest NWS discussion and more in line
    with my understanding of things that I tried to convey to
    the Mrs.

    * A few strong-severe t-storms possible between 4 and 10 PM across northern MA and interior SNE with a low risk of flash flooding

    Then later as the storms head SE

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this evening should weaken as they attempt to enter RI/SE MA and out run the main dynamics.

    I would say the above applies for Boston as well.

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