Joshua – your writing is exceptional and such a joy to read. Thanks for posting this!
I posted something similar to this a few days ago but I’m still puzzled – I thought we knew from contact tracing (I believe originally from a case in a restaurant and another on an office suite) that the virus is airborne – and that the contaminated aerosol can linger in the air for up to 16 hours. (This was also on the news again this week – likely CBS or meet the press I can’t remember which)
I believe I also read months ago they believed without masks Is someone is in an enclosed space with not great air filtration the airborne particles can infect within 15 min and up to 30 with a mask (not n-95 but just a regular cloth mask.)
So, if this is true, why are we opening any indoor venues? I’m worried that the effective non-spread of the airborne nature is really the political piece and will kill tens of thousands.
I’m not an expert on transmissibility. But, you point out the real risks of indoor transmission. In a sense, we’re `lucky’ in the Northern tier of the country that on most days we can dine outdoors if we want to, meet friends, hike, kayak, etc … And that will continue for a few more months. I fear what happens after that.
I distinguish Northern from Southern tier as in the South and Southwest it’s actually quite difficult to do outdoor things during the day. Very early in the morning and in the evening it’s certainly possible. But, blistering dry heat in the Southwest or the triple H on steroids in the Southeast really prevent much outdoor activity.
Today’s numbers so far look equally bad as yesterday’s, with an even wider distribution of states that are facing trouble with rising cases. South Carolina, Arizona, and Alabama are being hit hard by deaths this week.
Hi Joshua – long time lurker first time poster. Cases do seem to be rising in the states you referenced – but deaths are still just a fraction of what Massachusetts is still experiencing. Arizona has over 3500 new cases with 36 deaths. Massachusetts had 264 new cases and 30 deaths. These numbers would suggest to me that states like Arizona are doing a far better job at protecting the vulnerable while hedging their bets that while more will be infected by reopening – they will be far less of a critical impact on the healthcare system and recover more quickly. These numbers lend me to ask what Massachusetts continues to do wrong when looking at deaths vs cases. Are we doing enough to protect the vulnerable? I think we don’t do enough to compare cases and deaths. Florida has been a top headline lately, yet they still have one of the lowest death rates per 100K in the US. Appreciate your posts and welcome your thoughts on the above. Be well.
> Arizona has over 3500 new cases with 36 deaths. Massachusetts had 264 new cases and 30 deaths.
There have been days where we have had thousands of new cases and a low death count. One does not necessarily inform the other. The 30 deaths could have many variables – people who have been hospitalized for months who weren’t able to pull through, for example, is likely a big factor. Just looking at a random day: April 4th we had +1334 new cases and 24 new deaths. Which on paper makes it sound like we were handling patients better but you have to remember Arizona might not be up to speed with reporting on deaths, might have some deaths in later reporting which they can attribute, etc etc.
I’m sure joshua can add more to the response but this is just from what I’ve observed.
Thank you also, Doctor. Excellent response to an excellent question.
mama – my youngest said today that WHO also released the up to 30 minutes.
And if this is the case, why are we even considering opening schools as well as any indoor venues.
It is INSANITY to even think about opening schools!
That is my opinion and I am sticking to it.
My wife and I were talking over lunch and both of us
agree that if our children were school age we would keep
them home and school them ourselves. NO way I’d let a child of mine attend school, day camp, go to the movies etc etc etc NOT until this thing is gone and that may take
years.
Your daughter is a teacher?? Or did I make that up? I worry for teachers, staff, children. And as is typical, I agree with you.
Lexington has released its preliminary blueprint. It has one of the best school systems in the state, so I am happy to see what they are offering. They chose two of the three options DESE offered.
For schools…all schools are supposed to have purchased PPE, etc through the budget they have available. I am hearing that they need federal funding to accomplish some of the tasks necessary to reopen. One would be busing. It’s my understanding there is absolutely no money for increased busing at the same times that existed. So busing needs to be staggered. In most cases it would requiring at least two and far more likely at least three shifts. That alone would be a deal breaker for return to all in-school learning.
Sadly, time is passing far too quickly for what I absolutely believe should be the first option – a robust in-home school arrangement. The comment in the article I posted the other day said that in the spring the schools literally built the plane while flying it. I have no clue why we are headed for the point of doing the exact same thing again.
All of that said, I understand and appreciate that some kids are not in a safe setting at home – both for these kids and their families. I believe they should be back in the setting they were in pre-Covid. They are not the minority but surely cannot fall through the cracks.
My view, but truthfully, with the new findings supporting the fact that covid particles can hang in the air for 15-30 minutes, I just shake my head at the idea of sending kids back.
All of the above is said understanding that the president threatened to reduce funding for schools if they do not bend to his moronic views. That tells me even if he says in a week he will release funding that in three weeks he may well pull it again.
Vicki, why does busing need to be staggered? I’m not following you on that.
Sorry Philip…..should have explained more. Kids sit now 2-3 more like 3 per small seat. Some buses have kids standing. That would mean at least one half if not one Third of the kids will have to be cut
I don’t get it. Silence from Republicans on the Trump Administration’s threat to shut off funding if schools don’t reopen the way the Administration wants them to.
Aren’t Republicans in favor of local decision-making and autonomy? For decades, the GOP platform has stated that the federal government NOT tell local school authorities how to run their schools. For as long as I can remember, Republicans have advocated against centralized decision-making. Why the change of heart under the Trump Administration?
Chilling….isn’t it. The GOP is literally a shell of its former self.
I was under the impression that under Phase 3, restaurants are now allowed to offer indoor dining but from what I’ve noticed in my travels that most restaurants (including Dunkin’ and even other national chains) still only offer take out or outdoor dining. There are even a number of restaurants that still remain closed entirely.
The neighborhood pizza/sub shop that I go to does have indoor seating, but it’s extremely limited to a precious few seats. Even pre-pandemic I never had a meal inside there anyway as it was just my personal preference. I always was “to-go”.
Are restaurant owners still afraid to open up to indoor dining even though “technically” they are allowed now by the state? Or do they have to wait still until Phase 4?
They have to limit seating. Maybe that is what you are seeing?
On my workdays, I go to the Dunkin’ for my mid-morning coffee and signs at all the tables specifically still DO NOT allow any seating or standing after receiving your order. The restaurants I walk by in my travels still have their seats/tables removed as well as signs with “no restroom service”.
This tells me that owners are still nervous regarding indoor seating. From my perspective the restaurant industry hasn’t changed one bit since the second half of March. The only difference is that most doors are open to let in fresh air, so to speak. That is how I can peak in and see.
There is a larger restaurant I used to go quite frequently on my days off, very popular in the neighborhood and is still closed as of today. Been closed since March 17. It stayed open during big snowstorms.
This tells me the restaurant industry is not even close to return to even Phase 3 levels. Maybe some are but not many, at least from my perspective. I walk a lot and take the T so I do get around.
Philip, your observation is accurate. I’ve seen that, too. Restaurants in my neighborhood that can open for indoor dining are not, at least most of them. Granted, they’ve been able to do some pretty good business with outdoor dining as the city has allowed them to open up outdoor seating areas in parking spaces. One restaurant I walk by every day has around 8 tables on the street, and it’s full of patrons on weekends. I’m glad for the restaurant.
I’d love to sit down, inside, at a local cafe, have a cappuccino and a blueberry muffin, read the paper or do some work, and enjoy the AC, like I normally do in summer. I don’t have AC at home. Alas, I won’t be doing an indoor sitting anywhere until I feel it’s safe to do so. I’m not in a very high risk category, but I do have pre-diabetes and hypertension. And, I’m not a young kid anymore.
On that point of safety, even though Massachusetts is doing well, we’re still seeing between 200 and 300 new cases every day. We’re not RI, VT, or CT, where cases really have dwindled.
Nationally, the trend is not our friend overall, in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Bleak numbers. Yesterday was not a fluke. Today’s look nearly as bad, and the counting hasn’t finished for the day.
We don’t take out except from three places. After philips comment, I checked. One does not have indoor seating. One has outdoor (it always has) and very limited indoor. Both have excellent curbside. That is the determining factor for us. The third is an outdoor pizza truck so really doesn’t factor in
Philip and Joshua…thank you both for your input.
We have a fair amount in MA who refuse to wear masks and distance. Joshua…is that the driving factor.
The Ivy League (including Harvard) has canceled their football season.
Still TBD regarding next winter/spring sports.
I am now starting to really wonder if even professional sports get underway let alone finish.
Vicki, I’m unsure about reasons why restaurants are being so cautious. I think it’s a good thing, actually. I’m risk-averse when it comes to these things. Rather be safe than sorry.
I believe that people in this state are pretty good about masks and physical distancing. The latter, however, is a logistical problem in small, Boston pub restaurants.
Philip, I was sad to see the Ivy League cancel its football season. But, it’s understandable. My guess is the Ivy League is more cautious because there’s less money involved than, say, the SEC or ACC. I also think that the professional teams will try to at least start and restart their seasons, and see what happens at that point. Frankly, I’m okay with it, so long as rules are adhered to. The Premier League in England is doing well, also in terms of low (if any) positive cases among players and staff. I do feel like players there, for some reason, are more prone to rule following.
I agree re restaurants not reopening as they are permitted. It’s those that I am more comfortable trying for takeout.
As far as masks….I think on the whole we are really good as a state. Better in the cities than more urban areas. We have pockets…some fairly large…that refuse. I would be curious to know if that is where larger numbers are.
The countries trump named as justification for having open schools compared to the unites states
Denmark 10
Norway 11
Sweden 283
Germany 397
US 58,238
Joshua, I just approved a first-time poster’s reply to you above. Wanted to make sure you didn’t miss it before moving onto the next post!
C-19 for 7-9 is up…
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
My latest Forbes piece is on the U.S. formally withdrawing from WHO. Like many things Trump, this is more bluster and a political stunt than a real move. Even if Trump is re-elected the U.S. will remain in the WHO. It has to by law through July 6, 2021. And by that time fickle Trump will have changed his mind, or be out of office. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/07/08/trump-formally-moves-to-sever-ties-with-who-political-stunt/#67ae46de16ea
Nice job Joshua.
This is another great article Joshua.
Joshua – your writing is exceptional and such a joy to read. Thanks for posting this!
I posted something similar to this a few days ago but I’m still puzzled – I thought we knew from contact tracing (I believe originally from a case in a restaurant and another on an office suite) that the virus is airborne – and that the contaminated aerosol can linger in the air for up to 16 hours. (This was also on the news again this week – likely CBS or meet the press I can’t remember which)
I believe I also read months ago they believed without masks Is someone is in an enclosed space with not great air filtration the airborne particles can infect within 15 min and up to 30 with a mask (not n-95 but just a regular cloth mask.)
So, if this is true, why are we opening any indoor venues? I’m worried that the effective non-spread of the airborne nature is really the political piece and will kill tens of thousands.
I’m not an expert on transmissibility. But, you point out the real risks of indoor transmission. In a sense, we’re `lucky’ in the Northern tier of the country that on most days we can dine outdoors if we want to, meet friends, hike, kayak, etc … And that will continue for a few more months. I fear what happens after that.
I distinguish Northern from Southern tier as in the South and Southwest it’s actually quite difficult to do outdoor things during the day. Very early in the morning and in the evening it’s certainly possible. But, blistering dry heat in the Southwest or the triple H on steroids in the Southeast really prevent much outdoor activity.
Today’s numbers so far look equally bad as yesterday’s, with an even wider distribution of states that are facing trouble with rising cases. South Carolina, Arizona, and Alabama are being hit hard by deaths this week.
Hi Joshua – long time lurker first time poster. Cases do seem to be rising in the states you referenced – but deaths are still just a fraction of what Massachusetts is still experiencing. Arizona has over 3500 new cases with 36 deaths. Massachusetts had 264 new cases and 30 deaths. These numbers would suggest to me that states like Arizona are doing a far better job at protecting the vulnerable while hedging their bets that while more will be infected by reopening – they will be far less of a critical impact on the healthcare system and recover more quickly. These numbers lend me to ask what Massachusetts continues to do wrong when looking at deaths vs cases. Are we doing enough to protect the vulnerable? I think we don’t do enough to compare cases and deaths. Florida has been a top headline lately, yet they still have one of the lowest death rates per 100K in the US. Appreciate your posts and welcome your thoughts on the above. Be well.
> Arizona has over 3500 new cases with 36 deaths. Massachusetts had 264 new cases and 30 deaths.
There have been days where we have had thousands of new cases and a low death count. One does not necessarily inform the other. The 30 deaths could have many variables – people who have been hospitalized for months who weren’t able to pull through, for example, is likely a big factor. Just looking at a random day: April 4th we had +1334 new cases and 24 new deaths. Which on paper makes it sound like we were handling patients better but you have to remember Arizona might not be up to speed with reporting on deaths, might have some deaths in later reporting which they can attribute, etc etc.
I’m sure joshua can add more to the response but this is just from what I’ve observed.
Thank you also, Doctor. Excellent response to an excellent question.
mama – my youngest said today that WHO also released the up to 30 minutes.
And if this is the case, why are we even considering opening schools as well as any indoor venues.
It is INSANITY to even think about opening schools!
That is my opinion and I am sticking to it.
My wife and I were talking over lunch and both of us
agree that if our children were school age we would keep
them home and school them ourselves. NO way I’d let a child of mine attend school, day camp, go to the movies etc etc etc NOT until this thing is gone and that may take
years.
Your daughter is a teacher?? Or did I make that up? I worry for teachers, staff, children. And as is typical, I agree with you.
Lexington has released its preliminary blueprint. It has one of the best school systems in the state, so I am happy to see what they are offering. They chose two of the three options DESE offered.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1T7iRDGbB5cuzqWsJbWJtdTUiEa1dO3BOIFhpW0sclW8/edit
For schools…all schools are supposed to have purchased PPE, etc through the budget they have available. I am hearing that they need federal funding to accomplish some of the tasks necessary to reopen. One would be busing. It’s my understanding there is absolutely no money for increased busing at the same times that existed. So busing needs to be staggered. In most cases it would requiring at least two and far more likely at least three shifts. That alone would be a deal breaker for return to all in-school learning.
Sadly, time is passing far too quickly for what I absolutely believe should be the first option – a robust in-home school arrangement. The comment in the article I posted the other day said that in the spring the schools literally built the plane while flying it. I have no clue why we are headed for the point of doing the exact same thing again.
All of that said, I understand and appreciate that some kids are not in a safe setting at home – both for these kids and their families. I believe they should be back in the setting they were in pre-Covid. They are not the minority but surely cannot fall through the cracks.
My view, but truthfully, with the new findings supporting the fact that covid particles can hang in the air for 15-30 minutes, I just shake my head at the idea of sending kids back.
All of the above is said understanding that the president threatened to reduce funding for schools if they do not bend to his moronic views. That tells me even if he says in a week he will release funding that in three weeks he may well pull it again.
Vicki, why does busing need to be staggered? I’m not following you on that.
Sorry Philip…..should have explained more. Kids sit now 2-3 more like 3 per small seat. Some buses have kids standing. That would mean at least one half if not one Third of the kids will have to be cut
I don’t get it. Silence from Republicans on the Trump Administration’s threat to shut off funding if schools don’t reopen the way the Administration wants them to.
Aren’t Republicans in favor of local decision-making and autonomy? For decades, the GOP platform has stated that the federal government NOT tell local school authorities how to run their schools. For as long as I can remember, Republicans have advocated against centralized decision-making. Why the change of heart under the Trump Administration?
Chilling….isn’t it. The GOP is literally a shell of its former self.
I was under the impression that under Phase 3, restaurants are now allowed to offer indoor dining but from what I’ve noticed in my travels that most restaurants (including Dunkin’ and even other national chains) still only offer take out or outdoor dining. There are even a number of restaurants that still remain closed entirely.
The neighborhood pizza/sub shop that I go to does have indoor seating, but it’s extremely limited to a precious few seats. Even pre-pandemic I never had a meal inside there anyway as it was just my personal preference. I always was “to-go”.
Are restaurant owners still afraid to open up to indoor dining even though “technically” they are allowed now by the state? Or do they have to wait still until Phase 4?
They have to limit seating. Maybe that is what you are seeing?
On my workdays, I go to the Dunkin’ for my mid-morning coffee and signs at all the tables specifically still DO NOT allow any seating or standing after receiving your order. The restaurants I walk by in my travels still have their seats/tables removed as well as signs with “no restroom service”.
This tells me that owners are still nervous regarding indoor seating. From my perspective the restaurant industry hasn’t changed one bit since the second half of March. The only difference is that most doors are open to let in fresh air, so to speak. That is how I can peak in and see.
There is a larger restaurant I used to go quite frequently on my days off, very popular in the neighborhood and is still closed as of today. Been closed since March 17. It stayed open during big snowstorms.
This tells me the restaurant industry is not even close to return to even Phase 3 levels. Maybe some are but not many, at least from my perspective. I walk a lot and take the T so I do get around.
The Oklahoma cases are on a very steep rise. Looks a lot like Arizona a few weeks ago. Health official in Oklahoma appears to attribute some of the rise to the Tulsa rally. https://twitter.com/catherine_lucey/status/1280971381295984642
Philip, your observation is accurate. I’ve seen that, too. Restaurants in my neighborhood that can open for indoor dining are not, at least most of them. Granted, they’ve been able to do some pretty good business with outdoor dining as the city has allowed them to open up outdoor seating areas in parking spaces. One restaurant I walk by every day has around 8 tables on the street, and it’s full of patrons on weekends. I’m glad for the restaurant.
I’d love to sit down, inside, at a local cafe, have a cappuccino and a blueberry muffin, read the paper or do some work, and enjoy the AC, like I normally do in summer. I don’t have AC at home. Alas, I won’t be doing an indoor sitting anywhere until I feel it’s safe to do so. I’m not in a very high risk category, but I do have pre-diabetes and hypertension. And, I’m not a young kid anymore.
On that point of safety, even though Massachusetts is doing well, we’re still seeing between 200 and 300 new cases every day. We’re not RI, VT, or CT, where cases really have dwindled.
Nationally, the trend is not our friend overall, in terms of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Bleak numbers. Yesterday was not a fluke. Today’s look nearly as bad, and the counting hasn’t finished for the day.
We don’t take out except from three places. After philips comment, I checked. One does not have indoor seating. One has outdoor (it always has) and very limited indoor. Both have excellent curbside. That is the determining factor for us. The third is an outdoor pizza truck so really doesn’t factor in
Philip and Joshua…thank you both for your input.
We have a fair amount in MA who refuse to wear masks and distance. Joshua…is that the driving factor.
The Ivy League (including Harvard) has canceled their football season.
Still TBD regarding next winter/spring sports.
I am now starting to really wonder if even professional sports get underway let alone finish.
Vicki, I’m unsure about reasons why restaurants are being so cautious. I think it’s a good thing, actually. I’m risk-averse when it comes to these things. Rather be safe than sorry.
I believe that people in this state are pretty good about masks and physical distancing. The latter, however, is a logistical problem in small, Boston pub restaurants.
Philip, I was sad to see the Ivy League cancel its football season. But, it’s understandable. My guess is the Ivy League is more cautious because there’s less money involved than, say, the SEC or ACC. I also think that the professional teams will try to at least start and restart their seasons, and see what happens at that point. Frankly, I’m okay with it, so long as rules are adhered to. The Premier League in England is doing well, also in terms of low (if any) positive cases among players and staff. I do feel like players there, for some reason, are more prone to rule following.
I agree re restaurants not reopening as they are permitted. It’s those that I am more comfortable trying for takeout.
As far as masks….I think on the whole we are really good as a state. Better in the cities than more urban areas. We have pockets…some fairly large…that refuse. I would be curious to know if that is where larger numbers are.
The countries trump named as justification for having open schools compared to the unites states
Denmark 10
Norway 11
Sweden 283
Germany 397
US 58,238
Joshua, I just approved a first-time poster’s reply to you above. Wanted to make sure you didn’t miss it before moving onto the next post!
C-19 for 7-9 is up…