Wednesday July 8 2020 Forecast

65 Comments

7:51AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 8-12)

Warm front passes this morning with no more than isolated quick tropical showers. Clouds may break for sun at times after that but not expecting completely clearing today. A weak disturbance approaching from the northwest will be enough to kick off showers and thunderstorms it interacts with daytime heating and humidity, and these will take place mostly from during the second half of this afternoon into very early evening, and will be most potent as they move into and across southern NH and the northern portions of Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex Counties in Massachusetts. South of there, the air will be more stable, and the timing too late, so any advance of showers and storms into areas there and southward will be thwarted and they should fall apart rather quickly in most if not all cases. Where they do occur, briefly strong storms are possible with downpours, lightning, and even some small hail possible. A quiet but muggy night tonight, and the heat is up a notch along with humidity continuing Thursday, but there will be less of a kicker for storms so only isolated air mass storms are possible mainly over central MA and southern NH. Humidity continues again into Friday and may go up even further, while it will not be nearly as warm as Thursday. This will be due to a more south to southeasterly air flow ahead of approaching low pressure that had its origins in the Gulf of Mexico. This low will move up and across the region Friday night and Saturday morning with a slug of appreciable rain likely. Its steady movement should allow us to salvage a good part of Saturday without widespread rainfall, but we will run the risk of additional showers and thunderstorms popping in daytime heating and with a lingering trough behind the departing low. Sunday will be a touch less humid but still somewhat humid, and we will still have the risk of a few pop up showers and storms, though much more of the region will be rain-free on Sunday as a lingering trough will be nearby but a shadow of its former self by then.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers early to mid morning, favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving late afternoon to early evening southern NH and north central to northeastern MA with a few strong storms possible. Humid. Highs 80-87, cooler some South Coast areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring central MA to southwestern and south central NH. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early morning. Partly sunny remainder of day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Weak high pressure brings drier and seasonably warm weather July 13-14. Disturbance from the northwest brings clouds and a shower/thunderstorm risk during the July 15-16 period with drier weather following. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Ridge position well to the west, northwesterly air flow aloft, limited shower/thunderstorm risks, but when they occur they can be potent. Temperatures near to above normal.

65 thoughts on “Wednesday July 8 2020 Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Excellent discussion !

    22C !!!!!!!! at 850 mb, days 9 and 10 on the 00z Euro. Another printable model run for the wall. 🙂 🙂

  4. Good morning and Thank you, TK!

    I’m testing to see if this is held in moderation. I know why yesterday’s was – my error. But not sure about this morning’s. However, my ipad may have saved the error and I missed it.

    Happy birthday, Captain!! It’s a big one. Hope your day is special.

  6. Captain, wishing you a wonderful birthday.

    It seems it’s a big one, but I shall not venture a guess. 🙂

    I have already passed a fair number of the “BIG” ones.

    1. Thank you, Dave! Always thinking about Mrs. OS during humid days like these. Hope she’s doing okay.

      1. Thanks Capt. She has had a rough time. Even though for the most part it has not been super hot, it has been humid often.
        All it takes is DPs above 60 to affect her. The next
        few days will be brutal.

        I don’t particularly like the humidity, but generally I can
        tolerate it.

  7. Thanks, TK…Interesting days coming! Great write-up as always!

    Thank you, Vicki and Tom!
    I am 60 today, born in ’60! But I feel as young as I ever have!
    My sons call me “Boomer”. 🙂

    1. Ahh, you are a youngin.

      I would love to be 60 again, but sadly that is way beyond
      the rear view mirror.

      As each B-day passes, you think more and more about your
      own mortality and then one day you realize, crap! I don’t have
      all that much time left on this earth. It’s a strange feeling.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    A bit soupy as humidity is rising. Still not a lot of heat. And that looks to continue. I consider it hot when it’s in the upper 80s and above.

    Happy Birthday, Captain!

    1. DP (Or should I say soup point) is 70 at the airport.

      I don’t consider upper 80s as hot, UNLESS it is accompanied
      by ridiculous humidity, then I am with you 100%.

    1. Never heard that before. Awesome tune and it’s the story
      of my life these days!!!!

      THANKS

    1. Thanks, SC!

      In the words of Elton, the real “Captain Fantastic”, “I’m Still Standing, better than I ever did!!”

  13. Question about Friday. Would like to hear best estimates for the arrival time of the steady rain. I have some outside plans that day. Thanks in advance.

    1. Models are varying on timing and location of steadiest rain. In general, Friday mid afternoon onwards increases the steady rain threat. But, it’s such a tropical airmass, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a few lines or thin bands of showers earlier in the day. One possibility is that the core of the heaviest rain could hit western New England.

  16. Ryan Hanrahan thoughts on late week potential tropical system
    It’s becoming increasingly likely a tropical system will impact us Friday night. Heavy rain will be the primary threat with at least some gusty wind (nothing overly significant). Will have to watch for an isolated severe storm in the outer rainbands.

    Also, just because it gets a name (and everyone freaks out because it has a name) doesn’t make the impact any different than a fall nor’easter with rain and wind. Exact track will determine the local impacts.

    1. Yeah, I have a feeling about this one.

      As a hybrid. When I see the track edging further west, it makes me think it wants to be more in phase with the trof in the Great Lakes which argues for a stronger mid latitude low. But, with the tropical airmass and already lots of thunderstorms and decent outflow on its eastern side, the eastern side of the low having tropical characteristics and maybe a small area of 40-50 mph winds and a small tornado threat. We’ll see.

      1. Was thinking along those same lines.
        If a system has any tropical characteristics at all and tracks
        to our West, I am on alert. Not to say anything will happen, just something to watch.

    1. If this was winter it would be a quick snow to mostly rain. No doubt a coastal hugger.

      Will the winds be stronger over us or lighter?

  18. With tropical systems strongest winds are east of the center. The heavier rains west of the center.

  19. Happy Birthday Captain!

    I’ll be 60 in 4 months so still a bit of a ways to go for me. JPD thinks we are “young” but I sure don’t feel that way some days. 🙂

    1. Thanks, Philip!
      I do feel young. Maybe it’s because I am an older dad and I still love teaching teenagers.
      However, I do wear bifocals, double hearing aids and, now, a Covid-19 mask!!!! I had to buy an plastic extension for the mask that I wear in the back of my head to keep the mask straps from getting tangled with my hearing aids!!!!! 🙂 🙂

      1. I always prefer the graphics on the Tweets. Much cleaner, and they highlight the bigger cities that are in the box.

  27. I like an inland track with the low, which should be classified as just a low (nothing more), and a shorter period of rain with lower totals. After that, we’re trending back toward a much drier pattern. In about 3 weeks, it will be like this wet interlude never happened.

  29. Some media still calling for a washed out Saturday and I still highly disagree.

  31. Thanks for all of your kind birthday messages!
    I had a great day!

    You are the best! Good night, y’all!

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