Joshua, in case you didn’t see my post to you on the previous C-19 chat, please go back to that post. There was a reply there for you from somebody I had to approve but did not see the message in moderation until early this morning.
Very interesting question. Hi JR….I’m particularly fond of the year 1977
I spoke to a cousin yesterday in AZ and he mentioned ICU beds. I just looked and saw there are about 150 remaining out of near 1700. But if they are not seeing a high death rate, very curious. My first thought was younger age but that seems to be too simple. I look forward to Joshuas response. Thanks for asking and welcome.
I put a response in that hopefully answers some aspect of what the poster asked.
JR1977, You make several good points. First, Massachusetts and New York did NOT do a good job early on, especially with respect to protecting the vulnerable. Granted, this was at the beginning of the pandemic. So, it’s not easy to do policy when faced with something unprecedented. Massachusetts and New York were hit hard early because of these states being prime destination points for international travelers from China and Italy (Europe). The contagion was probably here in February and early March in much bigger numbers than we initially thought. Incubation periods and the time it takes for people to progress from being sick to dying meant that large numbers of deaths in Massachusetts only starting showing up 5 to 6 weeks later.
The states seeing surges in new cases now have the benefit of hindsight, which makes it all the more difficult for me and many others to see the slow and haphazard responses in these states. I do concur with you that the states now seeing surges are probably doing a better job at protecting the elderly in nursing homes, having learned from previous mistakes made in the Northeast and elsewhere. However, the problem is that some of the younger folks infected now will pass on infections to their parents and grandparents who are not in nursing homes (there are a lot of multi-generational households in these states, particularly among the Hispanic population).
Death rates across most Southern states have been lower, which is good. I think the case mix is a factor – lower median age of people testing positive. I believe treatment is a bit better. But, I would caution against complacency. Death is a lagging indicator. And when I say lagging it can be a very long time. I believe the 2-4 week lag that’s bandied about is wildly inaccurate, especially factoring in the reporting time delays, but also the fact that many people spend 30 plus days in the hospital before dying.
Nevertheless, I do not anticipate the daily deaths to return to April levels nationwide. They’re going up again, but the slope is incremental, not large.
There could be some virus weakening involved, though I cannot comment on this as it’s not my field of expertise.
Arizona and Florida have both been accused of fiddling with numbers. I can’t confirm whether they have indeed fudged the numbers. Arizona hasn’t been as forthcoming about nursing home deaths as some other states. It’s notable in this regard that we have no standards – other than vague ones at CDC, and even these evolve all the time – on Covid-19 death reporting. It’s also striking in Florida that close to 6,000 pneumonia deaths were recorded over a period during which, in a typical year, around 950 would be recorded.
Awesome information. It makes good sense. Thank you, Joshua. And JR for asking.
Off to find the good doctor’s response.
The school reopening arguments are interesting. There isn’t any one-size-fits-all solution.
The Dutch offer a puzzling, but also consistent perspective (with the `Dutch’ way). I disagree with aspects of it, just so you know.
After having been hit very hard by coronavirus, the Dutch have more or less beaten back the virus. In my estimate, the Dutch had a higher death rate from Covid-19 than the U.S. and most other European nations. The only way the Dutch avoided being one of the top 5 was to NOT include nursing home deaths for which the coronavirus had not been identified (diagnosed). In some ways, this is VERY Dutch. Only confirm what is known. Never speculate or guess. They’re an extraordinarily conservative society in this way.
They’re very strict in certain areas, such as bans on large gatherings, and enforcement of physical distancing. Politicians and other public officials always obey the physical distancing rules, don’t travel, don’t appear in indoor events with more than a dozen people.
But, the Dutch are lax in others, such as mask wearing. Their public health officials question the efficacy of non-medical masks (so, the kind you and I wear).
In terms of school reopening, the Dutch are following the Trump/DeVos approach. Full reopening of all primary, secondary, and special education schools in August. The government won’t allow for exceptions. Note, education in Holland is as centralized as one can imagine. Everything from curriculum to testing to numbers of children in class rooms. All is determined at the national level.
In schools, masks are not mandatory. Nor is physical distancing mandatory in primary schools.
It must be stated that the Dutch approach risk differently from Americans. They’re risk-averse in terms of their investing strategies. But, generally in life they’re not risk-averse. They don’t wear bike helmets. There are no lifeguards at beaches. So, it doesn’t surprise me that they consider relatively small coronavirus risks – kids getting sick, or teachers for that matter – to not impact their reopening decisions.
Sutton just sent out a questionnaire asking if parents want different scenarios. I think most towns are doing or will do this. But truly…..get going on it. Months have literally been wasted.
I actually think the U.S. (states and local authorities) is handling school reopenings better than the Netherlands. Our decentralized and cautious approach is a good thing, in my view.
On this issue, Trump and the Dutch are on the same page. But, I want to give school districts latitude, and the people some say as to whether schools reopen fully.
I learned to love some things about Holland, and not care so much about other things. Same here in this country. I’m kind of like a person on a raft floating back and forth on the North Atlantic. Sometimes the gulf stream pushes me towards things Dutch. Other times a back door front brings me back to things American.
I agree as long as the states do not let Trump dictate. Governors really have little say. I believe the order is DESE, school committee, superintendents but not positive. I like that they are sending out questionnaires. Parents and teachers are not quite as included as I would have liked and this is a great way to include them.
I firmly believe Fauci is the one person who is not letting Trump control him. We as a nation owe him one heck of a debt of gratitude.
I should add that I do think we have wasted very valuable time in setting plans in place for a robust in-home learning experience.
Sadly, a bad day unfolding in the U.S. in terms of numbers. As I thought last week, we’re headed back to having days with over 1,000 deaths. Tuesday was close (994). I think today the nation will surpass 1,000 deaths. Florida and Arizona have reported new spikes in deaths. Trend was already upward. It’s now a fairly steep rise. My guess is Texas, South Carolina, and California will show similar numbers. All across the South deaths are increasing.
I will never forgive Mike Pence. He’s a man of faith. I certainly believe this to be true. I think there’s some decency in his character, though a peculiar fealty towards his boss. But, his statements as Coronavirus Taskforce chairperson have been outlandish.
In March: “Everyone who needs a test can get one.”
In early May: “This crisis will be behind us by Memorial Day weekend.”
In late June: “We’ve made remarkable progress on the coronavirus.”
Yesterday: “Everything is going just great.”
Pence has been touting progress on the Covid-19 crisis since the day (in March) he became chairperson of the Coronavirus Taskforce. It’s laughable. As chairperson, his job is to inform and level with people based on evidence, not to sugarcoat, distort, or in some cases blatantly lie.
Also, his incessant travel and participation in unsafe practices are morally wrong.
Mike Pence claims to be a man of faith. It surely is no faith I recognize. I truly cannot imagine two people in the lead who could do worse.
Regarding indoors and poor circulation….that is the exact problem far too many schools will be facing. Newer ones may have a better system, but surely not adequate to combat this.
This next post could be on either the weather or C-19 page.
Northwestern Europe is experiencing a period of daily light rains and cooler temperatures. It’s been a very dry and warm spring so the rain is welcome. But, there’s a real danger (and fear) that cases could increase as people are now going inside restaurants and pubs to drink. The rules are strict: Maximum 50% capacity. But, an indoor environment without much ventilation is conducive to coronavirus transmission. Keep an eye on Belgium, Netherlands, and UK.
Governor Ducey, an incompetent man who’s really, really stubborn. He refuses to shut down indoor dining. It is incomprehensible, reckless, and morally wrong. Ducey says he’s pro-life. What does that mean, I ask? I’m fine with people who are pro-life, but the stance must be consistent. His state is leading the world now in infection rate, has a soaring death rate, among which plenty of younger folks, by the way, and he refuses to do what’s right. Borders on manslaughter. https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/elviadiaz/2020/07/09/gov-doug-ducey-not-enough-slow-coronavirus-spread-restaurants/5410553002/
Prolife seems to apply when it suits.
Per Wall Street Journal report: In April and May, more than 17,300 meat and poultry processing workers in 29 states were infected and 91 died.
That’s 0.52%: A very high percentage for that age group (median age 40). About 12-15 times the death rate of influenza for that age group.
I’ll never understand people who still think the coronavirus is just a flu. I was one of those idiots back in February. But, the numbers changed my mind.
Joshua…there were no idiots in February and surely you could never be considered one at any time. We have had what looked like the start of a pandemic of this proportion several times. It never got to this magnitude. There was absolutely no way to know.
Re poultry….it worries me what to purchase. I got an order from Perdue a bit ago but how do you know.
Far too many still say flu. Same folks who apparently need to be told what to do in the states such as AZ but rail against government intervention. You truly cannot fix stupid
I hope this does not progress as the spanish influenza did. Where the first wave seemed to target mainly the elderly and the immunocompromised and the second wave was far worse for younger adults and thus a massive second wave in the colder months. I keep thinking the government is saying “if the first wave never goes away then we won’t be dealing with a second wave!”
Maybe then they’re just trying to fast track us down to Atlantis – Sob!
I still don’t understand why the airborne nature – and the accompanying indoor exposure time thresholds (supposedly 15 min only or 30 min with face covering) – aren’t getting majorly emphasized. To me that it’s airborne and can hang in the air for up to 16 hours makes it clear that we can’t reopen schools – but perhaps then this news not getting a big push is international- given the administrations push to reopen schools.
C-19 for 7-10 is up…
Comments are closed.
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Joshua, in case you didn’t see my post to you on the previous C-19 chat, please go back to that post. There was a reply there for you from somebody I had to approve but did not see the message in moderation until early this morning.
Very interesting question. Hi JR….I’m particularly fond of the year 1977
I spoke to a cousin yesterday in AZ and he mentioned ICU beds. I just looked and saw there are about 150 remaining out of near 1700. But if they are not seeing a high death rate, very curious. My first thought was younger age but that seems to be too simple. I look forward to Joshuas response. Thanks for asking and welcome.
I put a response in that hopefully answers some aspect of what the poster asked.
JR1977, You make several good points. First, Massachusetts and New York did NOT do a good job early on, especially with respect to protecting the vulnerable. Granted, this was at the beginning of the pandemic. So, it’s not easy to do policy when faced with something unprecedented. Massachusetts and New York were hit hard early because of these states being prime destination points for international travelers from China and Italy (Europe). The contagion was probably here in February and early March in much bigger numbers than we initially thought. Incubation periods and the time it takes for people to progress from being sick to dying meant that large numbers of deaths in Massachusetts only starting showing up 5 to 6 weeks later.
The states seeing surges in new cases now have the benefit of hindsight, which makes it all the more difficult for me and many others to see the slow and haphazard responses in these states. I do concur with you that the states now seeing surges are probably doing a better job at protecting the elderly in nursing homes, having learned from previous mistakes made in the Northeast and elsewhere. However, the problem is that some of the younger folks infected now will pass on infections to their parents and grandparents who are not in nursing homes (there are a lot of multi-generational households in these states, particularly among the Hispanic population).
Death rates across most Southern states have been lower, which is good. I think the case mix is a factor – lower median age of people testing positive. I believe treatment is a bit better. But, I would caution against complacency. Death is a lagging indicator. And when I say lagging it can be a very long time. I believe the 2-4 week lag that’s bandied about is wildly inaccurate, especially factoring in the reporting time delays, but also the fact that many people spend 30 plus days in the hospital before dying.
Nevertheless, I do not anticipate the daily deaths to return to April levels nationwide. They’re going up again, but the slope is incremental, not large.
There could be some virus weakening involved, though I cannot comment on this as it’s not my field of expertise.
Arizona and Florida have both been accused of fiddling with numbers. I can’t confirm whether they have indeed fudged the numbers. Arizona hasn’t been as forthcoming about nursing home deaths as some other states. It’s notable in this regard that we have no standards – other than vague ones at CDC, and even these evolve all the time – on Covid-19 death reporting. It’s also striking in Florida that close to 6,000 pneumonia deaths were recorded over a period during which, in a typical year, around 950 would be recorded.
Awesome information. It makes good sense. Thank you, Joshua. And JR for asking.
Off to find the good doctor’s response.
The school reopening arguments are interesting. There isn’t any one-size-fits-all solution.
The Dutch offer a puzzling, but also consistent perspective (with the `Dutch’ way). I disagree with aspects of it, just so you know.
After having been hit very hard by coronavirus, the Dutch have more or less beaten back the virus. In my estimate, the Dutch had a higher death rate from Covid-19 than the U.S. and most other European nations. The only way the Dutch avoided being one of the top 5 was to NOT include nursing home deaths for which the coronavirus had not been identified (diagnosed). In some ways, this is VERY Dutch. Only confirm what is known. Never speculate or guess. They’re an extraordinarily conservative society in this way.
They’re very strict in certain areas, such as bans on large gatherings, and enforcement of physical distancing. Politicians and other public officials always obey the physical distancing rules, don’t travel, don’t appear in indoor events with more than a dozen people.
But, the Dutch are lax in others, such as mask wearing. Their public health officials question the efficacy of non-medical masks (so, the kind you and I wear).
In terms of school reopening, the Dutch are following the Trump/DeVos approach. Full reopening of all primary, secondary, and special education schools in August. The government won’t allow for exceptions. Note, education in Holland is as centralized as one can imagine. Everything from curriculum to testing to numbers of children in class rooms. All is determined at the national level.
In schools, masks are not mandatory. Nor is physical distancing mandatory in primary schools.
It must be stated that the Dutch approach risk differently from Americans. They’re risk-averse in terms of their investing strategies. But, generally in life they’re not risk-averse. They don’t wear bike helmets. There are no lifeguards at beaches. So, it doesn’t surprise me that they consider relatively small coronavirus risks – kids getting sick, or teachers for that matter – to not impact their reopening decisions.
Sutton just sent out a questionnaire asking if parents want different scenarios. I think most towns are doing or will do this. But truly…..get going on it. Months have literally been wasted.
I actually think the U.S. (states and local authorities) is handling school reopenings better than the Netherlands. Our decentralized and cautious approach is a good thing, in my view.
On this issue, Trump and the Dutch are on the same page. But, I want to give school districts latitude, and the people some say as to whether schools reopen fully.
I learned to love some things about Holland, and not care so much about other things. Same here in this country. I’m kind of like a person on a raft floating back and forth on the North Atlantic. Sometimes the gulf stream pushes me towards things Dutch. Other times a back door front brings me back to things American.
I agree as long as the states do not let Trump dictate. Governors really have little say. I believe the order is DESE, school committee, superintendents but not positive. I like that they are sending out questionnaires. Parents and teachers are not quite as included as I would have liked and this is a great way to include them.
I firmly believe Fauci is the one person who is not letting Trump control him. We as a nation owe him one heck of a debt of gratitude.
I should add that I do think we have wasted very valuable time in setting plans in place for a robust in-home learning experience.
Sadly, a bad day unfolding in the U.S. in terms of numbers. As I thought last week, we’re headed back to having days with over 1,000 deaths. Tuesday was close (994). I think today the nation will surpass 1,000 deaths. Florida and Arizona have reported new spikes in deaths. Trend was already upward. It’s now a fairly steep rise. My guess is Texas, South Carolina, and California will show similar numbers. All across the South deaths are increasing.
I will never forgive Mike Pence. He’s a man of faith. I certainly believe this to be true. I think there’s some decency in his character, though a peculiar fealty towards his boss. But, his statements as Coronavirus Taskforce chairperson have been outlandish.
In March: “Everyone who needs a test can get one.”
In early May: “This crisis will be behind us by Memorial Day weekend.”
In late June: “We’ve made remarkable progress on the coronavirus.”
Yesterday: “Everything is going just great.”
Pence has been touting progress on the Covid-19 crisis since the day (in March) he became chairperson of the Coronavirus Taskforce. It’s laughable. As chairperson, his job is to inform and level with people based on evidence, not to sugarcoat, distort, or in some cases blatantly lie.
Also, his incessant travel and participation in unsafe practices are morally wrong.
Mike Pence claims to be a man of faith. It surely is no faith I recognize. I truly cannot imagine two people in the lead who could do worse.
Regarding indoors and poor circulation….that is the exact problem far too many schools will be facing. Newer ones may have a better system, but surely not adequate to combat this.
This next post could be on either the weather or C-19 page.
Northwestern Europe is experiencing a period of daily light rains and cooler temperatures. It’s been a very dry and warm spring so the rain is welcome. But, there’s a real danger (and fear) that cases could increase as people are now going inside restaurants and pubs to drink. The rules are strict: Maximum 50% capacity. But, an indoor environment without much ventilation is conducive to coronavirus transmission. Keep an eye on Belgium, Netherlands, and UK.
Governor Ducey, an incompetent man who’s really, really stubborn. He refuses to shut down indoor dining. It is incomprehensible, reckless, and morally wrong. Ducey says he’s pro-life. What does that mean, I ask? I’m fine with people who are pro-life, but the stance must be consistent. His state is leading the world now in infection rate, has a soaring death rate, among which plenty of younger folks, by the way, and he refuses to do what’s right. Borders on manslaughter. https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/elviadiaz/2020/07/09/gov-doug-ducey-not-enough-slow-coronavirus-spread-restaurants/5410553002/
Prolife seems to apply when it suits.
Per Wall Street Journal report: In April and May, more than 17,300 meat and poultry processing workers in 29 states were infected and 91 died.
That’s 0.52%: A very high percentage for that age group (median age 40). About 12-15 times the death rate of influenza for that age group.
I’ll never understand people who still think the coronavirus is just a flu. I was one of those idiots back in February. But, the numbers changed my mind.
Joshua…there were no idiots in February and surely you could never be considered one at any time. We have had what looked like the start of a pandemic of this proportion several times. It never got to this magnitude. There was absolutely no way to know.
Re poultry….it worries me what to purchase. I got an order from Perdue a bit ago but how do you know.
Far too many still say flu. Same folks who apparently need to be told what to do in the states such as AZ but rail against government intervention. You truly cannot fix stupid
I hope this does not progress as the spanish influenza did. Where the first wave seemed to target mainly the elderly and the immunocompromised and the second wave was far worse for younger adults and thus a massive second wave in the colder months. I keep thinking the government is saying “if the first wave never goes away then we won’t be dealing with a second wave!”
Maybe then they’re just trying to fast track us down to Atlantis – Sob!
I still don’t understand why the airborne nature – and the accompanying indoor exposure time thresholds (supposedly 15 min only or 30 min with face covering) – aren’t getting majorly emphasized. To me that it’s airborne and can hang in the air for up to 16 hours makes it clear that we can’t reopen schools – but perhaps then this news not getting a big push is international- given the administrations push to reopen schools.
C-19 for 7-10 is up…