Thursday July 9 2020 Forecast

75 Comments

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 9-13)

Today we find ourselves deeper in the feel of the summer season we’re in – a little more heat than yesterday (though not excessively hot), and humidity on the high side. We don’t have a trough to kick off a batch of storms similar to what happened yesterday to the north – although those storms did not really make it down into Massachusetts from VT & NH as there was more stable air in place there. Today, we may see isolated pop-up air mass showers and thunderstorms, simply due to daytime heating, so be aware of that possibility. Any of these will fade as the sun sets, and tonight will be simply warm and muggy – a classic summer night. Next we turn our attention to a system that has been talked about as the bringing of a Saturday wash-out, or even by some, a weekend wash-out. You may have been lead to believe this by a verbatim interpretation of computer model forecasts, especially the currently very poorly-performing ECMWF model. Once again, this is where using the science of meteorology comes into play. This system, whether the NHC classifies it as something or not, will indeed be coming northward up the East Coast, but it’s going to be a relatively small low pressure area and take an “inside runner” track, over the Delmarva region and probably up through the Hudson Valley Friday night and early Saturday. And while that does mean we can get some heavy tropical rainfall, it’s likely come in the form of 2 or 3 lobes of showers and thunderstorms, moving rapidly south to north across the region, during the window of late Friday afternoon to very early Saturday morning. Once that low is beyond our latitude, we’ll be left in a south to southwesterly air flow of very humid air for Saturday, which for the most part is likely to be rain-free, as is Sunday. We’ll have to watch, however, for the development of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms especially near a weak lingering trough line behind the low Saturday as it drifts to the east, and another trough approaching from the west again by later on Sunday. While we remain in a warm and somewhat humid air mass for Monday, there will be less of a risk of any showers/storms forming due to more stable air which will have arrived at that time.

TODAY: Areas of fog & low clouds into mid morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but a few higher gusts possible near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly mid to late afternoon, favoring areas south of I-90. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak southwesterly to westerly flow overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

75 thoughts on “Thursday July 9 2020 Forecast”

  2. Just a short while ago on WBZ radio, once again, the anchor reading the news and teasing the weather forecast completely misrepresents what’s coming, giving the listener the completely wrong impression of what to expect. The following is paraphrased but very close to what was said… Saturday we are looking at basically a washout, very rainy and hot….

    About 10 days ago I wrote to the station expressing my displeasure with misleading weather teasers but have yet to hear back from them even though I requested a reply when prompted for such a request. I am more inclined to blame this on the station’s owners rather than the station itself. I think the next step will be to contact somebody who works there directly. I will update you on this.

  9. From NWS Boston
    can`t rule out a few isolated severe thunderstorms which could spawn an isolated tornado. Low level wind fields are quite favorable for strong rotation (0-1 km shear >25 kts and 0-1 km storm relative helicity >150 m2s2).

  10. Eric’s tweet this morning…..weather and covid relates so am posting here if ok TK. I believe Japanese flooding victims just sheltered in their cars.

    Eric…..As we head into hurricane season it really can’t be overstated what a disaster it will be, particularly in places like Florida and Texas, if large storm shelters are needed

    1. Down in the USVI they have made many more new requirements for hurricane shelters. Including a requirement to have been tested negative for it, but if your positive you will likely be sent to a hotel free of charge. Another requirement is that you must have been on the island for more than 14 days.

        1. No, not at the moment I was planning to get down there soon, but finding a flight that does not go through Florida has been proven difficult. Most flights go through Miami or Puerto Rico. I rather go through Puerto Rico but flights going there have also declined. They use to have a direct flight from Boston to St. Thomas and St. Thomas to Boston which limited my exposure but they got rid of it. BUT, there are now 57 active cases on the Island the highest concentration the territory has seen, mainly on St. Croix but still there has been a spike. The governor is speaking later today. I am hoping they honestly close the island from tourist. i am a resident so they wouldn’t be able to keep me from getting there but they can close the hotels which in essence makes the island closed to visitors. There was a 4 week period of no cases on the Islands then they opened up.

          1. When I say they opened up I mean opened up so tourists could come. Everything on the island was actually opened since the day after memorial day. Just that non-citizens would not be able to find a place to stay if they came.

          2. Good luck, Matt. I sure would not want to go through FL either. Prayers for safe travels for you.

  11. Wind at Logan WNW at 5 mph.
    Is a sea breeze in the cards? And if so, will it be strong enough
    to support some sea breeze front T-Storms?

  13. Wind at Logan now SE at 12 mph.

    I am wondering IF that might be enough to trigger
    a T-Storm or 2 a bit later on?????

    Curious

      1. From NWS

        While lack of synoptic forcing/upper level ridging will
        limit areal coverage and intensity of the convection, isolated
        showers and t-storms are still expected to develop this
        afternoon. This will mainly be induced by terrain and sea breeze
        interactions with the best chance near and north of the MA
        Turnpike, where instability should be highest. The severe
        weather threat will remain low given very weak wind fields, but
        very localized torrential rainfall will be possible with any
        storm given slow movement.

  14. The low clouds are breaking up down here at the Cape Cod Canal. Another level of humidity today, but there is a nice ventilating breeze to help out.

    1. DPs reported as 72-73 all over the Cape and up into the Boston Area. YUCK(@!#&!@*(&#*!&@(*#&!*@&#*(!@&#(!@*#!@#(!)*

      1. It’s nasty. We have our camper AC on til we hit the beach in a bit and the water dripping from the AC is pretty steady.

  15. Just peaked at tropical tidbits, recon plane has left panhandle of FL and is over GA/SC border. Should have some data from the east coast disturbance in a couple hours. I’m interested to see what they get for data.

    1. On Radars, a very very clear circulation is observed.
      At this point it really doesn’t matter if it becomes
      a named system or not, the effect here will be exactly
      the same regardless.

    1. That is going to be very hard to achieve, especially since most of it is coming Friday, and it likely won’t be widespread. 😉

  17. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/09/20201911546_GOES16-ABI-eus-09-2000×2000.jpg

    The one thing that keeps my interest is the chance that a circulation could reform under the blob of convection. It’s a small chance, but this water vapor loops shows the excellent environmental conditions under that area to the northeast of the current circulation.

    Very little wind shear, excellent outflow, now not only to the east and southeast, but also to the north. You can tell this by the featherly nature of the cirrus gently fanning out from the thunderstorm complex.

  18. Sure is hot working out in the field today. Came into lunch with my shirt drenched .

  19. Lots of cumulus popping. Some showing signs of
    vertical growth. Is there convection on the way???

    Time will tell.

    1. Not too much support today. Sea breeze boundary is the only focus around here. Well inland the air mass potential is a bit better.

    1. Thanks SAK let’s keep that heat & dry please for the last week of July when I’ll be at the beach

  21. Recon plane took first pass on west side of thunderstorm blob and got a 41 kt flight level wind from the ESE

      1. Just looked at the radar and the storms all seem to be on the east side of the circulation.

      2. The first circular loop is complete. There is almost a circulation there. The west side does have light northerly winds. The south side is trying to have northwest and west winds. They are now looping into the center of the thunderstorm blob and the winds are back up at 40 it’s. Let’s see if I can copy the planes graph.

          1. That just barely meets the qualifications of a closed low. Northwest to west winds at 5 knots or less in the southwestern quadrant is hardly something to get excited about, especially since they’re flying at 1000 feet off the surface. Given their recent track record, the National Thunderstorm Naming Center will probably call it a hurricane.

            1. Haha …. they can’t do that, that will probably close down the campground 🙂 🙂 🙂

            2. HAHA I said the same thing at work today, and I used that exact name. 😉 Well, hey, that’s what they are. Their poor work speaks for itself really.

  22. A cell has just popped near Lowell.

    We shall see if anything else is cooking or not.

    79 at the airport with East wind at 12 mph.
    91 at Norwood. My equipment is reading 88 which means
    it’s probably 85 or so here.

  23. The evolution of the Lowell cell was cool to watch. 2 quick cells, both pop-up / quick rain-out. Now there is one NE of Leominster.

  24. Here’s an example of how just relying on one model that has a good track record can get you into trouble…

    First link is the forecast for 18z (2PM) Saturday from the 12z run of the ECMWF July 8.

    Second link is the forecast for the same time, 18z (2PM) Saturday from the 12z run of the ECMWF today July 9.

    As you will see, yesterday’s run was quite misleading and frankly a very poor forecast by the model. The track record recently and the longer track record with this type of set-up is a red flag to the meteorologist. While the NAM is generally not recommended as a use for forecasting tropical systems, since this system was NOT tropical at initialization, it would have somewhat of a better handle, along with the GFS to some degree. In short, yesterday’s guidance was a clear choice – toss the Euro. Now today, it has started to come into much better agreement with the other guidance, and while not fully corrected, it much closer to what will end up happening.

    7-8 run: https://scontent.fbed1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/s960x960/107285957_10158606202952265_3116420082595371973_o.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=mN_07UwasqEAX-2wOor&_nc_ht=scontent.fbed1-2.fna&_nc_tp=7&oh=275c6f4e25ea1e88119b13590bed71c2&oe=5F2D6D25

    7-9 run: https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/106802331_10158606203102265_8872190770050681170_n.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=M3AYnpkRVp4AX_IoGVY&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=c15eecfa13a06504cb71b2b4e2359eaa&oe=5F2D32E0

        1. Eh… Well, at least this one will probably be at least somewhat tropical. As for it’s TS status? One can argue if it needed to go right to that, but I’m almost at a point where it doesn’t even matter. As long as us mets do our best job at forecasting sensible weather. 🙂 But I will admit, I did laugh when I read “Tropical Storm Fake”. HAHAHAHA!

          1. Good. On the scale of things lately I’d say this rates somewhere in the negative area. Name it. Embrace it. And it gets us closer to nana

  27. NWS Boston BULLISH for Monday for western MA and CT with thunderstorm potential. TK what are your thoughts and does this have the potential to be an interesting setup for thunderstorms?

    Models hint at some disturbance developing along a stalled frontal boundary southeast of the 70W/40N benchmark but it looks like better rainfall and thunderstorm chances look to be in Western MA/CT closer to the aforementioned parent upper low. Early indications are that these thunderstorms could be strong, with CAPE over 1000 J/kg, 20 kt bulk shear and 100 m2/s2 0-1km helicity. An associated cold front could provide the lifting mechanism needed to intensify the storms. Stay tuned.

    1. The models have been hideous beyond about 48-60 hours, and adding a tropical to the mix only adds to the chaos. I’d treat any model solution for anything beyond Saturday as highly suspect at this point.

    2. Basically echo SAK’s thoughts. I left storms out for the moment, SAK had them in. It can go either way. Minor wording this far out is your best bet. There is no sense in hitting anything hard 4 days in advance with model performance like this. We just saw an example of this a few days ago with what is now Fay.

  28. Thank you, TK.

    TK is correct. It’s still very dry out there. Lots of brown grass and sad vegetation.

  29. My yard had a small growth spurt, just enough for me to do a mulch mow. I didn’t bother setting up watering for the lawn because not long after some projects are done on the house, probably getting the entire thing re-done. So just been focusing on the garden and right around the house areas for watering. But just a couple drier days and the topsoil is already DUST.

    1. Yep. We set up watering last night so it wouldn’t hit veggie garden and we noticed a bit of dry out from the rain improvement today. The rain, however, made a huge difference. Our fault for delay on irrigation setup.

  30. Interesting that now the system has some tropical characteristics there is a big difference in track between the 18z 12km & 18z 3km NAM runs.

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