Saturday July 11 2020 Forecast

29 Comments

10:27AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 11-15)

As expected, the “outer bands”, really lobes of tropical moisture leftover from a weakening low which was once called Tropical Storm Fay, delivered a few episodes of showers and scattered downpours during Friday night. Generally under 1/2 inch of rain fell in most locations, with isolated heavier. Thankfully, no instances of damaging wind transpired, so “Fay” was pretty much the non-event it was expected to be here across the WHW forecast area. But we are not completely free of its influence yet, as it is in the process of merging with low pressure coming out of the Great Lakes, and a fresh southerly wind is blowing across the region this morning. The last of the showers exited via north central MA and southwestern NH early this morning, and other than a remote risk of an isolated brief passing shower in the moist air mass, it’s just going to be a breezy, muggy day with a sun & cloud mix. Later in the day you may notice a deck of higher clouds moving in from the west, which will be blow-off from showers and storms that form well to the west during the afternoon along a trough that trails from the newly-merged lows as they move away into eastern Canada. However, these storms will weaken and fade to just a few lingering showers as they cross the region tonight, so there will be no significant impact from them. Sunday, a westerly air flow behind this trough will knock the dew point down several notches, and while it’s still technically going to be a humid day, you will notice it being less humid than today. I’m leaving a remote risk of a pop up shower or thunderstorm in the forecast, but I really doubt much of anything will take place with Sunday just being a nice summer day. However, Monday is when things get interesting again around here. Don’t mistake that as a call for severe weather in any form of outbreak, but the atmosphere is going to support some shower and thunderstorm activity, so there may be quite a bit of activity to track as a couple of low pressure troughs move through the region. Behind this comes a push of drier air for Tuesday and Wednesday, but these will have their own weather associated with them, Tuesday being the risk of a pop up shower with some lingering cold air aloft, and Wednesday being the advance of some cloudiness ahead of a warm front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated brief shower possible. Humid. Highs 80-85 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 mph, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing shower late evening. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening. Slightly less humid. Highs 82-87 South Coast, 87-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly eastern areas during the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly flow aloft and weak weather systems at the surface. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

29 thoughts on “Saturday July 11 2020 Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Another YUCKORAMA today! Absolutely brutal!
    Dp 72 at the airport and already up to 84. Mostly Sunny here
    and the temperature is on the rise.

    Yuck, yuck and more yuck!@)(&#*(!&@*#(^!*(@&#*!(&@#

    1. According to Dave Epstein, expect more of the same for the next 2 weeks. Not to mention 90s return as well.

      Y-U-C-K!!!! 🙁

      1. With all these expectations of 90s, have you noticed we haven’t really had that many 90s? 😉

        Don’t think we’ll see all that many going forward either.

        1. Yes !

          The projection of 90s is going to have to be seen on the models within 24-48 hrs to have a chance.

          It’s been projected at days 7 thru 10 for weeks now and the intense heat has never materialized.

          A warm/humid summer to be sure, but no mid 90s yet.

          1. There was a reason I (and others) have disregarded those forecasts as poor model performance. 🙂

    1. 0.60-1.40 seemed to be the exception to the rule high range, with most coming in at 0.50 or less.

  5. Just over 48 hours out. I like the initial idea on timing for a line (or 2) of thunderstorms Monday afternoon / very early evening.

  8. There has been a coastal vs inland temperature experience the first third of July in southern New England, probably not out of the norm, though I wonder if this is more of a contrast than usual since the averages should already factor that in.

    Both Hartford and Worcester are at +3F for the month.

    Providence is at +1F and Logan is at -1.2F !! I want the old uncalibrated thermometer back !! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Lots of seabreeze days, I guess.

    2. Just look at yesterday. Logan was stuck in the low 70s while it was in the mid to upper 80s just a few miles back from the coast.

      Logan is the STUPIDEST location in the entire city for weather records. It just defies logic.

  9. There is convection out there..But any for this area? I doubt it.
    Hope so, but Ahh probably not.

  10. The best I can describe the 95+ 70 DP heat that has been at day 9-10 on multiple runs of the ECMWF is by comparing it to the big over amped long duration snowstorm that shows up in non snow producing periods of the winter only to be modified or gone by day 6 or 7 and then every few days it appears again at day 9 or 10. I know Mark and Dave will appreciate it.

    Even here where it has been warmer, there has only be 6 days beginning June 1 above 90 but including those 6 days we have had 23 days at 85 or above. So a warm summer to date, but not a hot one. I don’t know, maybe you read that prediction somewhere?

  11. Thank you, TK.

    I feel like today is the trough of summer. Is it really hot? No. But, it feels like a dictatorship outside. So oppressive. Boston has all kinds of weather, as we all know. And so on days like today it truly feels like the tropics. You’d expect to see 10 inch locusts, palm trees, and mangos falling on your head as you walk outside. Of course, just 5 months from now, it could very well feel like the proverbial Siberia. 16F for a high, with northwest winds blowing freshly fallen snow at a sustained 21mph, gusts up to 35mph. As all of you, my preference is the proverbial Siberia (though not right now, as apparently it’s hot there, too), so I pop my head in my freezer from time to time, and check out the cold spots in the Southern Hemisphere.

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