Sunday July 12 2020 Forecast

54 Comments

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 12-16)

Today will be a breezy and warm summer day, a little less humid than yesterday, dew point coming down from over 70 to the lower 60s, but very warm to hot with some areas reaching or just exceeding 90 for high temps. Expecting sun eventually mixed with some clouds but today I’m going to remove any risk of pop up showers and storms from the forecast. We do have more “weather” on the way though, and a low pressure trough crossing the region Monday will bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially to areas away from the South Coast and especially during the afternoon hours. The trough responsible for this will develop a low pressure area offshore Tuesday and some cold air aloft will linger, and this combination will set off a few more showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening. High pressure, centered to the north of the region, will bring fair and cooler weather for Wednesday before it shifts offshore and a warm-up begins Thursday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Moderately humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely, especially away from the South Coast. More humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly flow aloft and weak weather systems at the surface. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances.

54 thoughts on “Sunday July 12 2020 Forecast”

    1. Well, I suppose every morning is a God morning. Of course,
      I meant to type good morning. 🙂

  2. Thanks TK!

    I hope you can pinpoint a timeframe for Monday afternoon. 3-5 pm is my commute home from work. I generally get home by 4:15-4:30.

    Heat Advisory for inside I-495 including Boston. H-O-T!!!

  4. This post is not written in frustration and is really meant as perhaps creating a conversation on it because I think it’s a good weather topic.

    I think it’s really difficult for a meteorologist to give specifics on where summer thunderstorms will be until your within a few hours or even an hour or 2 of a developing situation.

    Surely, there are the rare exceptions. For instance, the squall line on the 93 superstorm that the Tampa radar could see well out into the Gulf. That was one that perhaps 6 hrs in advance, one could reasonably calculate the impact time that to any given location in Florida.

    So, it’s tough because, little things like more sunshine received, more cloud cover than expected, a set of storms firing not too far away that can rob the atmosphere of the energy one thought would be there, an unexpected outflow boundary, there are so many things that can affect where thunderstorms will form, that I think it’s hard to be really specific, until your fairly close to the event (perhaps a few hours). I think a meteorologist can give confident generalities a day or 2 out, highlighting that Monday has the ingredients for thunderstorms, but specifics I really think are limited to a few hours beforehand.

    2. I could not have said that any better myself.

      Even today I saw a comment on one of the pages that I admin where somebody was disappointed in the forecasts for thunderstorms because they felt that they had not been hit fully with a thunderstorm anytime recently. This person also has enough weather knowledge to know that there have been some very significant thunderstorms on those very days in other locations very nearby. So this is one example of what I mean by disconnect of information given and understanding that information and expectation of results.

  8. Thank you TK and good morning all. Walked 6 miles along the shore and it was warm and humid, but the breeze helped to modify things a little.

    1. Not surprised at Worcester. That’s another city where the weather records are kept at an unreasonable location.
      They are kept at the airport at 1,000 feet above sea level,
      while most of the city is about 500 feet or more below that.
      In fact, down town Worcester is listed at 480 feet above sea level.

      That clearly can make a difference of a degree or 2 or more.
      Like 88 at the airport could easily be 90 downtown.

  12. Looking at that graphic from the tweet I posted so far in my opinion summer 2020 has been warm but not hot so far.

    1. Agree. Even today is more humid than hot. But there is still a lovely breeze…..although difficult to sit in sun

  13. Yes. It hasn’t hit 90 1000 feet up in ORH, but I can assure you they have had a few in the city itself. 🙂

    Not a particularly “hot” summer so far, but a warm one certainly. Still not seeing any sustained heat in our future. Model data continues to over-forecast temperatures beyond a couple days. Sensible meteorology tells you that unless you get a New England “chinook”, middle to upper 90s are not likely with how our high pressure areas are setting up once they send return flow into the region, and we definitely do NOT have the right upper air pattern in place over us to promote high or lasting heat. I honestly don’t see that changing for some time.

    1. It hasn’t exactly been “comfortable” lately though either. Dewpoints too high for my taste. 68-73F on average.

      1. We definitely spiked that recently, but before that (and today in a few hours) we have had a lot of days in the lower 60s for dp’s. So other than this recently little tropical interlude it’s been fairly humidity-tolerable for the average person. Nothing like (so far) the torrid humidity that never wanted to end a couple summers ago.

    4. Thank you all. The grandkids were very excited. I’m surprised that we don’t see them often with all of the deer we see in town or perhaps we just miss them. If my ring would record what I see in the camera, it would make me happy

  15. I’ve been trying to monitor the CFS long range lately to see which periods of time it seems to be a little more “competent” as far as long range trends go. I think it’s doing well now. Not sure how long that will last. Interestingly, it has all but 2 months drier than average between now and spring of 2021. Its temperature trends would indicate an “average warm” remainder of summer, early cool & later milder autumn, front loaded snowfall winter trending to dry with below normal temps. Take this with a load of salt larger than the snowfall pile in Boston in 2015, but there you have it. 🙂

    2. Another front loaded snowfall winter? Well, we all know what happened last time, don’t we? 😉

      2019-20 = 15.1”

      2. Correction…15.8”

        Logan was stuck on that previous amount for so long. I forgot that late season “burst”. 😉

  16. Have there been enough of an increase in flights to improve
    the performance of the weather models?

    1. Good question. I haven’t really been tracking it much during the last week, but I would guess it’s still a little lower then “average”.

  18. NOTE: I did not say I was forecasting a front-loaded winter. I was interpreting a very wish-washy suspect long range model. Nothing more. Please make sure we don’t translate this into “TK said…” 🙂

  19. Vicki,

    I have another movie for you. Are you a fan of Paso Fino?
    Check out the movie A Fine Step available
    on Amazon Prime. Very nice story that was well acted with
    Luke Perry and Armand Assante.

  20. Even with temps hovering right under 90 and DPs 68-72, the breeze has made sitting outside quite comfy. Not so much not sitting I’m sure.

    1. Was just going to mention this.

      Logan is sitting at 88 with dp 64 with a nice breeze.
      Although it is still humid and quite warm, it has been
      NOTICEABLY more comfortable in the house today.

      I’ll take any break from the Humidity I can.

      Not for nothing, but I thought all along that the heat advisory
      for today was totally and completely UNWARRANTED!

      1. With the breeze and dew point falling through the 60s and high temps in the upper 80s to around 90 I would not have personally thought a heat advisory was necessary today. But I think it being a Sunday relatively early in summer and relatively early in phase 3 of things being opened, I think they wanted to be in “better safe than sorry mode”.

        1. Well, you certainly can have you well deserved and earned opinion, but I for one, think they went over the top with this one.

          From time-to-time our local NWS falls victim to the “Cry Wolf” syndrome. Just my opinion, for what it’s worth.

  23. Dew-points seem to be inching up again in eastern Mass and a couple heavier showers hanging in there in west-central Mass.

      1. Is that little low on the front to the South going
        to move the front back as a warm front and place
        us back in the warm/moister section for the action later????

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