Monday July 13 2020 Forecast

67 Comments

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 13-17)

Active weather early this week. If you look at a general weather map you can say “an area of low pressure” or “a trough” is moving across the region, but putting a little microscope on it, we have a mid to high level disturbance coming through this morning (which triggers a few showers in the area), a slow-moving trough / cold front moving into the area this afternoon which triggers clusters of showers and thunderstorms that may linger over certain areas, resulting in flash flooding, and we have an upper level low pressure trailing all this interacting with a newly formed although weak surface low pressure area to produce another round of showers and storms on Tuesday. So much in 2 days during one of the quieter seasons of the year? It happens. But if you want a quiet day, it’s coming – Wednesday – as high pressure settles in, and like many before it, centered to the north so that the air flow is northerly to easterly, but that will bring comfortable air in, and tranquil weather, which will last through Thursday as the high shifts overhead then off to the southeast. By Friday, a warm front will be passing through with cloudiness and a shower threat, opening the door to more humidity again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with possible passing showers during the morning. Partly sunny midday and afternoon leading to scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms mid through late afternoon, some of which may result in flash flooding and gusty, locally damaging, winds. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but strong and gusty near some storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a diminishing risk of showers and thunderstorms evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible overnight. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible. Risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Typical summery weather for July 18-19 weekend, very warm to hot, no extreme heat, and a daily risk of a shower or thunderstorm in a few areas. Overall pattern is weak systems and weak to moderate westerly flow aloft so similar weather into next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

West to northwest flow aloft heading into late July, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but not a wet pattern overall.

67 thoughts on “Monday July 13 2020 Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I’ll be happy when Summer is over. I want this humid weather
    done with. Good-bye and good riddance and the sooner the better!

  4. Vicki, You may have missed this yesterday.

    I have another movie for you. Are you a fan of Paso Fino?
    Check out the movie A Fine Step available
    on Amazon Prime. Very nice story that was well acted with
    Luke Perry and Armand Assante.

  5. Boy let me tell you it’s humid outside . Try working in jeans , boots & a heavy t-shirt I’m already drenched before 9am. Oh well that’s my minor gripe of the day .

      1. It’s part of the job & we get paid well . Folks always think we have it made in the summer being outside but like all seasons we deal with all Weather conditions & adapt .

  7. SPC thoughts on our storm chances today:

    …Southeast New England this afternoon…
    Similar to areas in NC, and embedded/subtle shortwave trough will
    move over southeast New England today. Though MLCAPE is unlikely to
    exceed 1000 J/kg and vertical shear will be rather modest below the
    500 mb level, the stronger storms could still produce isolated
    strong outflow winds and perhaps some minor wind damage across
    southeast New England this afternoon.

  16. Difference between Human Forecaster and Weather Apps:

    My blog early this morning:

    “Right now, it looks like most of the storms will be during the 1pm-8pm time frame.”

    I had thunder at my house in Brockton at 12:59pm. That’s a win in my book.

    Default Weather App on my phone just alerted me that rain will arrive in 28 minutes. It’s been raining here for the past 15 minutes.

    Human 1
    Computer 0

  17. Getting dark now with cells popping up inside 128 surrounding Boston.

    I guess it’s going to be a long late afternoon. No way I make it home without getting wet.

  20. Just had a quickie shower, dropping 0.24 inch in no time at all.
    No sooner had I shut all of the windows when it stopped.

    1. What would impress and thrill me would be some snow today. But, that’s not happening.

      My run earlier was brutal. You could slice the humidity with a knife. I was that “close” as they say in rural Pennsylvania.

      Sad news from snowy Hotham, Australia. The coronavirus outbreak (~150 cases) in Melbourne and vicinity has caused the resort to shut down for 6 weeks. I must say they take the coronavirus very seriously, even with relatively small numbers of new cases. Quite the contrast here in the U.S. where Disney just has to reopen, cuz you gotta get that cash flowing, 15,000 new cases yesterday notwithstanding.

      https://www.mthotham.com.au/on-mountain/conditions/snow-weather

      2. Some countries have real leaders. 🙂

        Our niece and her husband live just outside of Melbourne
        and are hanging in there aok.

  24. Thank you, TK.

    My cat just asked me when autumn was arriving this year. She’s sprawled out on the hardwood floor in front of an oscillating fan. It can’t be easy having all that fur in this humidity.

  25. Just went through two gully-washers (one going up and one coming home) in the Mansfield-Sharon-Walpole area on my way to an appointment in Norwood.

  26. That line stretching from Just above Hartford to the NE seems to have been sitting in one place for a while

    1. Good grief. Part of that line spread out and is still in same area. No wonder they have a flash flood warning

    2. Kryptonite on the CT/RI border near Foster/Glocester. There must be a lot of water in and around Putnam.

      1. You noticed. T-storm grave yard.
        Must be a hunk of stable air parked in that area???
        Pretty funky to watch on radar.

        No matter to me as it would only pass harmlessly well
        to my South, but it would get you IF only it could
        pass through RI. 🙂 : ) 🙂

        1. Big split as action passes well to the North of Boston
          and well to the South.
          The kick is up and it is…..GOOOOOOD!!!
          Or NO good it you want rain in this area.

      2. Thats the cell I mentioned one hour ago and it was there for quite a while before I posted

        Crazy

  28. I think today is the last day for 15 hours between the sunrise and sunset. I think it’ll be May (or June?) 2021 before we see it again.

    1. and there are a couple impressive cumulus just overhead. That boundary is either going to squash them or add convergence and develop a good storm near Scituate.

  32. Once again I am at the softball field in Windsor CT sweating under the sun and watching that cell on the horizon to my west raining itself out.

    I was told it rained hard briefly at home but the bulk of the heavy rain was about 4-5 miles to our east. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mansfield had 3” of rain and we had 0.10”. Same crap, different day!

        1. 15-2 Coventry in the 5th inning! They will be 7-0 in this summer softball league after tonight. Our coaches may have stacked the team with a few girls from other nearby Towns but you didn’t hear that from me 🙂

          It is nice to be watching live sports again. My son is jealous because his baseball season was wiped out. But looks like the town fall ball league is a go so hopefully he will be back out there later next month.

          1. I hope he can get back on the diamond. Taunton’s Little Leagues were determined to play this summer and they are playing a league schedule through the end of August.

            In a couple of weeks, we SHOULD have MLB, NBA and NHL to watch and look forward to. I have been watching NASCAR, believe it or not!

            Go Coventry! 🙂

            1. I am going to looking forward to cheering the Rangers and Yankees on. I hope we have a football season so I could be cheering the Cowboys on.

            2. I was a huge nascar fan but have not followed for a couple of years. My oldest and her husband went to Charlotte and taledega sp? And a few others. Mac and I joined them at Laden ..again Sp?

  34. That Eastern CT seems to have merged with a cell west of here where there is a warning. Maybe in SC area?

  35. Well ended up with 0.52” in the rain gauge today. More than I expected! A lot in a very short period of time. Not the most beneficial type of rain but better than nothing. 1.87” now on July.

  36. From the SPC for today:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    …Southern New England…

    Seasonally cool upper trough will shift east across New England
    during the day. Latest guidance suggests low-level lapse rates will
    steepen quickly beneath this trough from CT into southern VT/NH.
    Forecast soundings suggest convection will develop early then drift
    southeast within a weak-flow regime. While marginally severe hail
    could be noted, the primary risk with this diurnally driven activity
    will be locally gusty winds.

  38. Thanks as usual for posting the maps Jp Dave, your right a pretty impressive complex. I hope today brings some rain my way. My area was the graveyard of storms yesterday. They were all around me, I could hear continuous thunder and it grew dark but…
    I could only muster .07 in the bucket for the day and .06 of that was from the shower I received in the morning. I had a cluster of severe warned storms around 6:00 last evening that were headed right for me and literally decayed right over my head.

    1. Sorry you missed out.
      I mostly missed as well, but did pick up 0.24 inch in a quick shower with no thunder and lightning. We did hear thunder
      from other nearby storms, but never got one.

      Let’s see what today brings.

      They way that complex is up North, I am not sure what
      effect that will have on any future convection down this way.

  39. Update from local NWS

    7 am update..

    While further north in NH severe storms were ongoing early, in
    southern New England, further from the closed upper low, showers
    have struggled to get going. This is to be expected given lack
    of a strong forcing mechanism before diurnal heating gets
    going. Mesoanalysis indicated a good deal of convective
    inhibition across the region. Model soundings indicate the cap
    should erode around 15-16Z which is when that instability will
    begin to be realized and storms become more formidable.

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