Tweet from 680 NEWS Toronto
#BREAKING: Tentative deal reached to extend Canada-U.S. border closure until Aug. 21, government source says
Thanks, JJ.
I find the wording of the announcement a bit odd. I don’t think that the word “deal” is appropriate. It’s almost as if Trump-talk has entered the lexicon where it shouldn’t. Canada isn’t going to allow Americans in under the current set of circumstances no matter what. There is no deal in this regard. Canada has very few cases. We have many. Even if we wanted to strike a “deal” we couldn’t.
Vicki, the state of NY was always first and will hold on to that lead for a while, though California is in hot pursuit. I don’t believe MA made it past 3rd in terms of the ranking of states.
States that haven’t gotten much attention but should are Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The former two are relatively resource poor, with healthcare systems stretched very thin. They’re also socioeconomically relatively poor.
Unfortunately, I’m seeing signs of spread beyond the Arizona, Texas, and Florida trio. Coronavirus is burning through the population like a horrific wildfire. While some may say that we’ll achieve herd immunity faster than others, my word of caution is that several major studies now suggest that immunity only lasts a couple of months, at best. Furthermore, the degree of immunity confers correlates with the severity of disease. What this means is that those who’ve been very sick, hospitalized and perhaps in ICU, but then survive have much better immunity profiles than the vast majority of people who don’t get severely ill. In fact, the asymptomatics don’t get much immunity at all. We’re in for a long struggle.
I leave you all today with a salute to Bastille Day. It’s a fun tune with a lively beat that summarizes the French Revolution. It’s good for those who want to brush up on their French (text is provided in the video):
My only quibble is a sentence on “Germany keeping its economy closed enough to …” Germany’s economy is not as closed as ours in Massachusetts is right now. It’s more open than any state in the U.S. Factories are all up and running. Schools, museums, and libraries are open. Even the hospitality sector is doing reasonably well, with a tremendous amount of outdoor service (almost every restaurant has created space), and indoor service at 50% capacity. But, the rules on physical distancing, hygiene, and mask wearing are MUCH stricter. Also infrastructure is in place – for example, plexiglass dividers in restaurants – to mitigate infection spread. Contact tracing is part and parcel of everyday living (this could be seen here as an infringement on privacy, as all establishments ask for your number). Large gatherings are banned for now. So, this part of the economy remains closed, though the soccer league is in action without fans.
Keep in mind that schools in Europe only have a short summer vacation (about 5 weeks) that begins at the end of July. So, when I say they’re open, that means open and in session.
Germany’s schools have been open since last month.
The only way European nations could do this was to beat down the virus to a very low infection rate or test positivity. In Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, we’ve similarly contained the virus to manageable levels. I think that with strict guidance schools here could reopen. It would certainly be my priority over bars, gyms, casinos, churches, Disney. We may wind up having a situation in Florida in which Disney is open but the schools are closed. How screwed up are our priorities?
Vicki, I’m sorry I didn’t make it clear with respect to rankings. What I was referring to was a negative ranking, namely, states with the most cases. Massachusetts at one point was number 3. Thankfully, it has tumbled to number 9. I’m going out on a limb to say I think the state will wind up going down to number 19 when all is said and done, which would be very good, given that we’re the 15th most populous state, and we were heavily impacted at first because of us being a prime destination for international travelers, students, and others.
The other positive ranking you referred to has to do with infection rate. And yes, Massachusetts had the lowest in the nation in late June. It’s now not quite as low as Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and I believe Connecticut. Vermont and Maine have done quite well throughout the pandemic, too. See a pattern here. New England, we should secede! I’ll get a new passport that says “citizen of New England” and then I’ll be able to travel as a resident and citizen of a newly established rogue nation.
Encouraging Phase 1 efficacy data from Moderna. The largest and longest trial (Phase 3) hasn’t yet started, but we could see a vaccine by December or January if all goes well! However, the adverse event profile is not so great. More than 50% had multiple side effects, such as chills, fatigue, and headache. And, 20% had undisclosed “systemic adverse events.” Mass adoption of any coronavirus vaccine is key to returning the country to normal through herd immunity. Despite good efficacy, unsure if one with this adverse event profile gains much traction. For widespread uptake vaccine must induce neutralizing antibodies (which this vaccines does) AND have minimal, mild side effects that impact only a small percentage of people. The Moderna vaccine’s side effect profile may repel many from taking it.
Most important, Joshua, is no reason to be sorry. All of that is confusing and I figured I had misunderstood something somewhere. You surely understand it more than I so unquestionably my bad
Thank you for the feedback on vaccine. I seem to recall the original 1918 vaccine had Serious side effects And I recall the swine flu vaccine of 1976. My mom had a long list of amazingly talented physicians and most advised her to wait….so we did. She had several friends who suffered terribly from it
Tweet from 680 NEWS Toronto
#BREAKING: Tentative deal reached to extend Canada-U.S. border closure until Aug. 21, government source says
Thanks, JJ.
I find the wording of the announcement a bit odd. I don’t think that the word “deal” is appropriate. It’s almost as if Trump-talk has entered the lexicon where it shouldn’t. Canada isn’t going to allow Americans in under the current set of circumstances no matter what. There is no deal in this regard. Canada has very few cases. We have many. Even if we wanted to strike a “deal” we couldn’t.
Vicki, the state of NY was always first and will hold on to that lead for a while, though California is in hot pursuit. I don’t believe MA made it past 3rd in terms of the ranking of states.
States that haven’t gotten much attention but should are Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The former two are relatively resource poor, with healthcare systems stretched very thin. They’re also socioeconomically relatively poor.
Unfortunately, I’m seeing signs of spread beyond the Arizona, Texas, and Florida trio. Coronavirus is burning through the population like a horrific wildfire. While some may say that we’ll achieve herd immunity faster than others, my word of caution is that several major studies now suggest that immunity only lasts a couple of months, at best. Furthermore, the degree of immunity confers correlates with the severity of disease. What this means is that those who’ve been very sick, hospitalized and perhaps in ICU, but then survive have much better immunity profiles than the vast majority of people who don’t get severely ill. In fact, the asymptomatics don’t get much immunity at all. We’re in for a long struggle.
I leave you all today with a salute to Bastille Day. It’s a fun tune with a lively beat that summarizes the French Revolution. It’s good for those who want to brush up on their French (text is provided in the video):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=51&v=0TMt1pFlFYc&feature=emb_logo
Sorry….I am not sure what you are referring to with CA, NY and MA. I need to go back and read but after a socially distant visit at my oldests
Ahh. Found it. This is what I was referring to back around June 20something
https://whdh.com/news/mass-has-lowest-coronavirus-transmission-rate-in-us-data-shows/
Here is an article about herd immunity with a meteorological analogy to boot:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/
Thank you. Excellent piece.
My only quibble is a sentence on “Germany keeping its economy closed enough to …” Germany’s economy is not as closed as ours in Massachusetts is right now. It’s more open than any state in the U.S. Factories are all up and running. Schools, museums, and libraries are open. Even the hospitality sector is doing reasonably well, with a tremendous amount of outdoor service (almost every restaurant has created space), and indoor service at 50% capacity. But, the rules on physical distancing, hygiene, and mask wearing are MUCH stricter. Also infrastructure is in place – for example, plexiglass dividers in restaurants – to mitigate infection spread. Contact tracing is part and parcel of everyday living (this could be seen here as an infringement on privacy, as all establishments ask for your number). Large gatherings are banned for now. So, this part of the economy remains closed, though the soccer league is in action without fans.
Keep in mind that schools in Europe only have a short summer vacation (about 5 weeks) that begins at the end of July. So, when I say they’re open, that means open and in session.
Germany’s schools have been open since last month.
The only way European nations could do this was to beat down the virus to a very low infection rate or test positivity. In Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, we’ve similarly contained the virus to manageable levels. I think that with strict guidance schools here could reopen. It would certainly be my priority over bars, gyms, casinos, churches, Disney. We may wind up having a situation in Florida in which Disney is open but the schools are closed. How screwed up are our priorities?
Excellent read. Thank you
Some potential really good news
https://twitter.com/afp/status/1283156421933174784?s=21
Scott, I was about to post this. Let’s pray. I’d love Joshuas feedback
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2020/07/14/moderna-releases-new-covid-19-vaccine-data.html
Yes I would as well.
Vicki, I’m sorry I didn’t make it clear with respect to rankings. What I was referring to was a negative ranking, namely, states with the most cases. Massachusetts at one point was number 3. Thankfully, it has tumbled to number 9. I’m going out on a limb to say I think the state will wind up going down to number 19 when all is said and done, which would be very good, given that we’re the 15th most populous state, and we were heavily impacted at first because of us being a prime destination for international travelers, students, and others.
The other positive ranking you referred to has to do with infection rate. And yes, Massachusetts had the lowest in the nation in late June. It’s now not quite as low as Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and I believe Connecticut. Vermont and Maine have done quite well throughout the pandemic, too. See a pattern here. New England, we should secede! I’ll get a new passport that says “citizen of New England” and then I’ll be able to travel as a resident and citizen of a newly established rogue nation.
Encouraging Phase 1 efficacy data from Moderna. The largest and longest trial (Phase 3) hasn’t yet started, but we could see a vaccine by December or January if all goes well! However, the adverse event profile is not so great. More than 50% had multiple side effects, such as chills, fatigue, and headache. And, 20% had undisclosed “systemic adverse events.” Mass adoption of any coronavirus vaccine is key to returning the country to normal through herd immunity. Despite good efficacy, unsure if one with this adverse event profile gains much traction. For widespread uptake vaccine must induce neutralizing antibodies (which this vaccines does) AND have minimal, mild side effects that impact only a small percentage of people. The Moderna vaccine’s side effect profile may repel many from taking it.
Most important, Joshua, is no reason to be sorry. All of that is confusing and I figured I had misunderstood something somewhere. You surely understand it more than I so unquestionably my bad
Thank you for the feedback on vaccine. I seem to recall the original 1918 vaccine had Serious side effects And I recall the swine flu vaccine of 1976. My mom had a long list of amazingly talented physicians and most advised her to wait….so we did. She had several friends who suffered terribly from it
Many thanks Joshua!
Well, this has failure written all over it
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/coronavirus-data-trump-cdc.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR283r2mw9fmc8l2LCOrW7QgjeFcZdR_6Voozm1YtsWMg6f2Izk8AMO2i58
C-19 for 7-15 is up…