Tuesday July 14 2020 Forecast

100 Comments

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 14-18)

An upper level low pressure area and pool of very cold air aloft will make the atmosphere unstable today with showers and thunderstorms. Initially these storms are limited to parts of southern NH but will develop elsewhere due to the sun’s heating. Some of these storms may produce gusty winds and hail. Activity settles down and departs later tonight, and high pressure centered over eastern Canada, sinking slowly southward, provides fair and comfortable mid July weather Wednesday and Thursday. A warm front approaching and moving through the region Friday brings cloudiness, higher humidity, and a risk of showers, then opens the door to some summer heat by Saturday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms in southern NH early to mid morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms anywhere midday on. Thunderstorms may produce hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Highs 76-83. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms diminishing. Patchy fog forming. Lows 56-63 Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers possible overnight. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible. Slight risk of a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Very warm to hot, humid, but rain-free weather for July 19. Early next week July 20-21 humidity stays high in a southwesterly flow but approaching and passing cold front brings the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Middle of next week July 22-23 brings fair and somewhat drier weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

West to northwest flow aloft heading into late July, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but not a wet pattern overall.

100 thoughts on “Tuesday July 14 2020 Forecast”

    1. Grandson who is enjoying morning on the deck with me noticed the clouds are moving in a different direction……NW to WSW

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I was sitting on the previous blog and missed any mention
    of a new post. Oh Well. That’s what happens when one
    is doing six tasks at once. My multi-tasking skills
    are diminishing with age. 🙂 🙂

      1. Updated SPC outlook

        https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

        …Southeast New England today…
        A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over southern New
        England today. Thunderstorm clusters are ongoing in a loose arc
        around the eastern and northern periphery of the low, and additional
        diurnal storm development is expected as cloud breaks allow surface
        heating/destabilization. Midlevel lapse rates and vertical shear
        will be relatively weak near the midlevel low, but the strongest
        storms could produce isolated strong outflow winds capable of
        producing (mostly minor) damage.

  9. That’s a vigorous disturbance and very cold air aloft.

    Would not be surprised to see at least one rotating storm favoring Maine by early afternoon.

  12. 0.07 inch in ye olde Logan bucket. JPD’s 0.24 inch hit the jackpot as usual in comparison. 😉

    My gut tells me that storms will be much more widespread today than yesterday. Hardly a professional opinion.

    1. I am also sensing a general pattern upcoming. Relief (lower dewpoints) every midweek bookended by HH on weekends and Mondays/Tuesdays.

  14. Some cells now popping near Boston. One near Lexington
    and one near Needham. I appear to be right in the middle
    of the 2. We shall see. 🙂

  17. Stepping outside it feels very nice compared to the past couple days. I am going to enjoy this from now through Thursday.

  18. There is a decent window of sunshine between the lead showers and storms and the backside showers/storms in western areas.

    Could be an interesting afternoon ………

      1. not here yet, but soon perhaps.

        It will also be interesting to see how the N/NE sfc wind affects the storms as they near the immediate coastline later on.

  19. The only Severe Thunderstorm Warning I am seeing at the moment is in the Greenfield, MA area. Storm moving southeast at 20mph with quarter size hail 60 mph wind gusts.

  21. 80 here with 66 DP

    Wunder says we have a severe t storm warning until 12:35. I don’t see this on radar?

  22. FWIW …… 15 to 18C, (850 mb) temps have made it to days 4 and 5 on both the Euro and GFS and 20C is to about day 6.

    This is further along than days 7 thru 10, which has been the case for weeks now.

    During the past few weeks, the middle range outlook (days 4 thru 6) have seen drastic changes, model run to model run, to the jet along the US/Canadian border, suddenly identifying dips in the jet stream that have held off the heat to the south and west.

    Looking to see in the next 24 to 48 hrs, if the heat signal starts moving to the short term outlook (Days 2 and 3) for the first time this warm season.

    So, while the area has consistently seen 84 to 88F for 3 to 4 weeks now, will 90F to 95F be making an appearance next weekend and early next week ??

  23. This is from the NWS in Norton. Anyone know what this means?

    Given expected numerous coverage of storms, a handful of which
    may become strong to severe, have opted for an SPS to bring
    awareness to the strong/severe thunder threat.

    Does SPS = Special Statement??????????

  24. JPD, Uxbridge and Milford have same warning. Hopkinton and franklin do not. I was just checking where it went to but didn’t check more

      1. That blob, although it is making slow Eastward progress, it is also slipping Southward as well. I am thinking that
        it ends up rotating South Of boston, somewhere around
        the Fooxboro, Sharon, Norwood, Walpole and surrounding
        area. OR perhaps even a bit farther South, say near the attelboros or Pawtucket RI.

    1. Pretty good cell to your east, Vicki. I think that might be the one you are hearing the thunder from.

  30. Yes, the storms are rotating SE, but the upper level disturbance is moving east, so the area will slowly translate eastward with time.

      1. Good question.

        Within a few miles of the coast, the NE flow, I would think, works against storms, because these storms are developing due to unusually cold air over relatively warm boundary layer and so, the cool sea-breeze takes away that instability.

  31. I wonder whats preventing storms from forming in Eastern Mass. We had sun here for the past 2 hours. Latest NW discussion mentioning that SE mass has the best shot now.

  32. We have had sun all morning. Some thunder now and a low layer/blanket of dark clouds.

    Thunder a bit louder now

  33. Providence, RI at 2pm reports 86F. I´ll bet this is a reasonable representation of temps in interior southern NE, including RI and eastern CT and thus, a lot more sfc heating for the more intense cells we are seeing currently in those areas.

  34. Thanks TK. Hoping to get some rain, but so far everything that has been on the doorstep between yesterday and today has done a POOFORAMA over my area.

    1. I highly doubt Boston sees even a drop of rain for the rest
      of the day. Yet another no show for the city.

      Yes, I know, other areas got plenty of rain decent thunderstorms.

  40. Atmosphere, in areas that have been hit, may have another chance to destabilize before 5 to maybe 6pm for yet another round. Interior areas away from the effects of the seabreeze.

    1. “Perhaps” area approaching Leominister “may” just
      intensify. We shall see. My money says NO WAY!

      1. Area Approaching Lowell has a better chance, but that
        isn’t on track for the City. That would pass off the North
        Shore coast somewhere North of Boston.

        1. I hope one of these get you, JpDave !

          The tops of today’s storms are really being sent far from them. I don’t think the core of a storm is near Marshfield and yet thick, dark blowoff from the storms far to my southwest makes it appear like we are about to get clobbered.

          2. One developing “just” to your South. Perhaps you get clipped but looks more destined for Plymouth.

  42. The hail in Maine is a nice visual example of how cold it is aloft. We’ve had several anomalous cold pools early this summer. A colleague of mine (and myself somewhat) had been discussing back in mid spring that we thought this may be part of the general pattern for the first part of summer, with mean ridge spending more time in the West, and not really any sustained heat. So far, that’s exactly what has been going on. At the half way point of meteorological summer, with some inland areas obviously having seen more, Logan has only seen ONE day so far of 90 or higher (June 20 @ 92). This has been very much due to a frequent occurrence of northeast to east predominant wind which during the current portion of the AMO phase we’ve had a lot of high pressure areas centered north to northeast of New England.

      1. The amount of different things going on in that loop is astounding and makes me marvel at the fact that anybody can actually foretell what it’s going to do in a specific region up to days in advance.

        1. Thanks SAK! I missed this one last night. I’ve been asked about that several times myself. I had a friend that was insistent that a stationary downpour was there one day until I finally pulled up a google satellite view and explained what was going on there. 🙂

Comments are closed.