Quiet Times

106 Comments

4:52PM

High pressure will be the main player for the next 7 days with fair weather being the rule. Some clouds and some temperature fluctuations can be expected from time to time.

Details for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 29-34 inland, 35-40 coastal & urban areas. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 50-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 31-36 inland, 37-42 coastal areas. Wind light varaible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 56.

106 thoughts on “Quiet Times”

  1. Wow, thats lots of sunny’s !!

    Preliminary and not final data shows Logan ended October with a +3.5F above normal temp for the month.

    I really feel for those without power. We were without for about 36hrs after Irene. And…..we had mild nights and 13hr of daylight……….Now, its dark by 6pm, no morning light til 7am and the nights are cold.

    1. If DST ended a week earlier like the old days, it would be dark by 5 pm.

      Too bad we don’t have that warmth from Columbus Day weekend.

  2. Hi Vicki,

    In your last post you mentioned that you thanked the N-Star workers as they left…does this mean that you finally got your power back, I hope?? πŸ™‚

    1. I think she was thanking them for there hard around the clock work, as her neighbors went about it the wrong way. Tk could not have said it better. My post that I decided not to send kind of went like that. I think we can understand the damage and problems that comes with a storm much better than most people.

    2. Hi Philip. Yes we have power but my 4 yr old grandson turned off the lights and turned on the flashlights for dinner. We got very used to the quiet that comes with no electricity

          1. Hi Vicki- yes everything was fine when we got home. It was good. Saturday was a fun night for the kids at the resort. The storm put a damper on there outdoor plans, but they had enough things inside. Woke up on Sunday to know power. Only a small portion of the resort did not loose it. It was only out for 5 hrs. Sunday the place was deserted. My son had fun.

  3. I noticed some of the TV mets have forecasted Monday to be 65F. Tonight one of them mentioned possibly 70F.

    1. About 10 days ago I put out a “fun” forecast that was based on some science, for a high temp of 70+ in the Boston area about November 9. This was based on a medium range forecast via the Euro. If anyone wants to search for it, go ahead. I’m too lazy. πŸ˜› … I think I mentioned 2 days (Nov 4 & 9). Obviously, the Nov 4 one is not going to verify.

      2. Not to discourage you TK, but the 9th is still a week away…things could change as you know! It would be great if it happens though.

  4. Currently, Fairbanks, AK and Arctic Village, AK are still below zero and may not make it to the zero mark for the day………I seem to recall times in the past when large arctic highs would develop, centered around the Alaska border with the NW Territories that would generate an area of low temps between 30 to 50F below, with highs of 10 to 20F below. Then, at some point, the jet stream would amplify, capture this frigid air and send it south into the US….Also, the arctic high north of New England seems to have disappeared the last few years…..I wonder if this very cold batch of air in early November is a sign of some extremely bitter airmasses to come this winter.

    1. Tom,

      Check out the GFS out in the future. It “appears” that some of that cold
      air gets captured and is propelled SEward into our area.

      1. I have not but I am hopeful it will be soon and the last time I lose power for a while. First Irene two months ago now this but things could be worst. At least there was no damage done to the property with the tree branches that fell.

  6. Hello everyone, couldn’t believe here in north Attleboro we received about 3 inches which with today’s sun is gone, if I told u there would have been more snow on the ground on Halloween than Christmas u would probably say I’m crazy, let’s see it could happen πŸ™‚

    1. I think the weather is just going crazy. I would not be surprized if this winter
      is worse than last winter.

      1. I keep meaning to ask how everyone here feels about the global warming theory. Don’t mean to open a can of worms but am just curious if people knowledgeable about weather are on the same page or have different perspectives

        1. Years ago I really did believe in global warming, but I don’t anymore…look what just happened on Halloween as a perfect example. Since 2000, 6 of the last 11 winters Boston has had above normal snowfall.

          1. Philip my husband was saying global warming leads to an ice age. I have to look into that. Something about more melting at the poles and then more precipitation other places. I’m not sure about the reasoning

        2. I definitely feel the global climate is changing. However, I don’t know if you could call it global warming or global cooling; or if there is some other reason. In any case, the extremes in the weather in the past few yrs., especially the frequency of the severity of storms and the weirdness of the weather, e.g. this latest Oct. storm – leads me to believe something is going on. I could guess on some things but I don’t have the knowledge to really say. All of this does make the weather more interesting – even ‘though the fairest days still can be interesting weather-wise.

      2. I doubt that Boston will see anywhere near the amount of last winter (81″). I predicted 53″ and that could be a bit too high…we will see.

  7. Boston’s average annual snowfall has been adjusted upward to 43.8 inches, based on the 30 year averages which are used in climatology. This means that the last 30 years were snowier than the previous 30.

    2. TK, I have noticed that the NWS uses that 43.8-inch number, but most of the TV mets use 42.2″ as the average snowfall for Boston. I certainly understand accuracy is important but does it really matter much in the long run?

      1. Every tenth counts. My friend and former coworker is the state climatologist, and he’s always stressed how important getting the #’s right is. I agree with him.

  8. Vicki- I had said in an earlier post that I think your neighbors were wrong with the nstar workers. I hope you did not take offense to that.

    1. John you are very kind. I think my neighbors were very wrong. It upset me to see that everyone who had an alternative screamed the loudest and those who didn’t were prepares and made the best of it.

      There is a story in Yankee mag about the outpouring of help in Waterbury VT after Irene. I am looking for a link to post here. It made me think about this past week and how attitude has changed It is strangers helping strangers – what I remember from my youth. It’s a great read. I’ll look tomorrow when I get my computer up and running

  11. I really thought that Dan Rea was going to have the utility reps on his show tonight to discuss the power outages. I guess there is really nothing the power companies can say at this point anway…. πŸ™

    1. Philip I missed the show. I don’t have a radio except in the car and I needed to get some things back in order so I could get back to work this morning. I work from home so have been “on vacation” the past few days πŸ™‚ I had thought he’d have reps too.

  12. To Vicki’s question above, count me in for a believer in global warming and I think it is affecting what we are seeing. One example……I seem to recall many times last winter when there was very little temp contrast across the country. For example, International Falls, MN would be 20F and Orlando, FL would be 30F. Also, despite all the snow last winter locally, very few if any of the storms were real cold storms with high pressure sitting to our north. In my opinion, they were all very dynamic storms going just to our south able to cool the column enough for snow all the way to the coast.

    1. Tom I am also a believer in global warming. I suspect some may be cyclical but don’t believe we can pollute our earth, water and the atmosphere without create an imbalance. Just rainforest destruction alone has to upset the natural balance.

  13. I totally believe in global warming, it’s happening right under our noses, the most important stat is temp and that goes up every 20 yr period, fact not opinion, later have a great day guys

  14. Good to have power back and hopefully to the folks who don’t have power you will get it back soon.
    My thoughts on global warming is weather goes in cycles so therefore I don’t believe in it.
    Take NYC for example since 2000 they have had 7 years winter’s with above normal snowfall including a stretch with 40 plus inches of snow for three straight winter’s which has never been done before. Philadelphia since the Pacific Decadal went to a negative phase has had the most snow ever recorded in back to back winters with the 79 inches in 2009-10 and the 45 inches in 2010-11. This is not what I call global warming.

  15. Vicki, you need to announce at the end of each month who is in the (snowfall) lead at the end of each month. That would be the person whose prediction is closest to the actual. πŸ™‚

    1. hahahahaha – and once again the leader after month one is Longshot –

      hmmmmm – does the glory go to the person closest to the actual total or to the person who has been correct the most months???? πŸ™‚

  16. JJ, I agree with your thoughts on global warming. The fact of the matter is we have kept weather records for a very short period of time in relation to the age of our planet. To believe in global warming based on what you remember as a child doesn’t make much sense to me. Comparing 20-30-40 years when you were a child to thousands of years of weather occurrences on earth is not a accurate platform to make definite conclusions and is simply speculatory at best.

  17. I was saying yesterday with this Fall Noreaster, Pre Halloween Noreaster or whatever you want to call that the global warming folks are going to have a field day. The truth is you had a high pressure to the north and a storm that exploded off the east coast with a lot of dynamics to create evaporational cooling and therefore allowing the precipitation to fall as a heavy wet snow particularly in the interior where places just got pounded. This should go to show that if everything sets up just right you can get an accumulating snow event in October.

    1. I just can’t believe there r green leaves everyone on trees and I have a tree that has been bare by Nov 1st for 16yrs, 1st year theres yellow and green leaves on it, wow!!!! Probably be in the 60’s for thanksgiving πŸ™‚

  18. No question man has affected climate change now whether you believe that has led to global warming is up to each person. I do believe that global warming is an issue that needs to be addressed in a bi partisan way. Just look at the shrinking ozone as well as the anarctic ice shelf that is melting.

  20. The morning runs of the GFS continue to show cold air, possibly arctic air, building in Canada. We may be get a piece of that at or just after thanksgiving.

  22. As long as the discussion was “Global Warming”, I’ll give my 2 cents:

    I am a Believer in Global Warming. It is Given that I fully understand that our climate goes in cycles. Ice ages have come and gone to be sure. But since the beginning of the industrial age, we have been spewing all sorts of chemicals into our atmosphere, including fluro carbons, sulpher and carbon dioxide to name a few. Hard to imagine that these have NOT had some sort of affect. Just doesn’t stand to reason.

    1. OS, would it be a stretch to say your more a believer of “Global Harming” rather than “Global Warming”? I agree 100% that the release of these foreign chemicals into the atmosphere must have a negative effect on the environment, both locally and globally, but there is simply no “Clean” evidence to state global warming is occurring. The evidence for global warming has been intentional misleading.

      1. I respectfully disagree.

        The massive release of carbon dioxide alone is enough to cause
        some warming. I will, however, agree that is very difficult to
        quantify that warming.

        And from here, we’ll agree to disagree, but at least we can have an amicable discussion here.

        Cheers

  23. For those of you above who believe in global warming…please explain to those in central & western MA. You could go an entire winter season sometimes and not see a 20-30-inch snowstorm, and yet we still have a good month and and a half until winter actually begins.

    1. Perhaps they would care not to listen, but global warming is not linear.
      In general the planet is warming, but during the process, climate is disrupted,
      such that more extremes can be found like the October Snow storm.

      1. Oh and btw, I think someone posted above that for Boston,
        October 2011 averaged 3.5 Degrees above average daily.

        1. great article – thanks OS. My father-in-law didn’t believe in global warming. He and I had many great debates about our differences – room clearing debates πŸ™‚ I miss them. His philosophy, even though he didn’t believe, is that we should curb emissions and do a far better job taking care of our planet. Whether it prevented warming didn’t matter – in the long run it can only make things better.

          1. I don’t think that anyone could argue about taking better care of our planet, afterall, it is
            the only one we have and it is home.

          2. that’s the truth πŸ™‚

            This is what I was thinking about when I said the warming can cause more storms – It will need more study but is a start. There are some other links on here that are also interesting.

            Sorry TK to have switched the topic. I have wondered for a while if there were a difference from the general public among those interested in weather with regard to global warming trends.

            http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/0216/Extreme-rain-and-snow-events-linked-to-global-warming-study-finds

    2. I’ll try Philip. πŸ™‚ The way it snowed and accumulated is the way it needs to happen in late October. A cool airmass in place with cold air above, and a dynamic system going to our south that cool the column enough for it to snow. In my opinion, normal, with no surprise there……..But, I couldn’t help notice that when it was snowing in New England, it was in the 30s in most of Canada, fairly far north, like in Churchill, Canada. As the northern areas of the hemisphere have warmed, I think it has caused more areas of high pressure ridges at higher latitudes. Usually south of those ridges, the atmosphere then forms low pressures, a lot of times…deep, cut off low pressure areas. So, I guess I hypothesize that if there were more ice at the north pole and the arctic were colder, there would be more low pressure up there and less cutoff lows down at our latitude producing an event last weekend.

  24. Lates off shore bouey Report:

    The water temps are on a steady delcine.

    Conditions at 44013 as of
    (10:50 am EDT)
    Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
    Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
    Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
    Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
    Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
    Average Period (APD): 6.3 sec
    Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.38 in
    Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
    Air Temperature (ATMP): 48.7 Β°F
    Water Temperature (WTMP): 53.2 Β°F
    Salinity (SAL): 31.50 psu
    Dew Point (DEWP): 41.5 Β°F
    Wind Chill (CHILL): 45.9 Β°F

  25. Vicki – I did reply to your question about opinions on global warming – but further up on the post. That was before I saw all the other posts. Just so you know.

    1. I didn’t see it – thanks rainshine and I agree – I don’t have the knowledge but to me it just makes sense.

      Coastal I got a laugh out of that too – there are other studies on why precip is increasing – I just grabbed the first I found from a more reputable newspaper/periodical source.

  27. The problem with global warming is its happening so slow that in a human lifetime that’s it’s tough to accurately say yes it is or no it isn’t but us humans will know in a few hundred years whether it’s true, I believe global warming is true and with rising sea levels it spells trouble after 2300

    1. It “may” spell trouble long before 2300. I know I won’t be around to know, regardless of when.

  29. I now personally think that our individual view on global warming is really based on what you want to believe and where you get your info from. I think the facts on this issue is scuewed based on where you get your information from and what they want you to believe based on who owns the news source. People with money and people in politics are now involved and will destroy the purity of this topic.

    1. Politics always destroys purity of anything. On That we can agree.

      Yes, indeed, politics will muddy the real issues and thus the truth.

      Just sit back and relax and watch everything unfold.

  30. Just my opinion – first of all, if global warming is messing up everything – it is happening now and will continue to get worse, well before 2300. Secondly, and many may disagree with me, but I believe cellular phones, more computers, internet, microwaves, etc. could contribute to extreme weather, atmospherical changes, etc. (okay, I have a cellular phone and internet). Yes, we need all this high-tech stuff and especially in the medical industries saves lives and finds new cures. But w/all this stuff combined, couldn’t that affect the atmosphere, adding more electrical charges or whatever to our environment?

  31. We could go back and forth forever. You don’t believe and I do.
    It is difficult to quantify and thus there are arguments on both sides.

    I do NOT disagree that there are natural fluctuations that have nothing to do
    with our emissions. That given, there is no doubt that green house gases can
    have an effect and possibly lead to “warming”.

    1. Note to self: next dinner party I host, do not talk politics and religion, oh and global warming. πŸ™‚

      1. Nah, I don’t think that global warming is nearly as dangerous
        as the others.

        We’re just having fun. We can disagree in peace.

        And no nastiness like the other place! LOL

        1. it’s been a nice discussion – and varying opinions are everywhere – even in predicting weather – it’s IMHO what makes the world go round and live interesting!! For instance, I hadn’t thought about several of the things rainshine mentioned so I learned something new πŸ™‚

          2. Thanks, Vicki – I don’t know if any of my thoughts might be true, but I thought I would suggest the possibility. This is another thing I love about this blog – not only can we talk about the weather πŸ™‚
            but also voice our opinions and thoughts.

  32. TK is going to ban me from the blog for starting this – sniff πŸ™

    On a weather note – was that subtle πŸ™‚ – it is a glorious day but every one of the trees within my view that was full of leaves last week is still full this week – my question is will the leaves be there in the spring or are they planning to drop off?

    1. I think TK will be fine with the discussion. No one broke any rules of
      conduct.

      Re: the leaves
      A few more Chilly nights “should” get them falling.

        1. good points – and if the leaves don’t fall do not be surprised if the news is covering a crazed Don Quixote wanna be swinging at trees in framingham

  33. Tk- had said above the Euro is back on track and to go buy that. is that good or bad for us. could sombody explain that some more please.

    1. I think that it is good. It is TK’s opinion that the Euro is OUT PERFORMING the other models at the present time in terms of accuracy.

      In other words it has the most realistic representation of what the
      future atmospherice conditions will be.

      I only wish that the results of the Euro were more readily available and in a more timely manner. I can only assume that the length of time it takes to run,
      means that it is a MORE complicated program that eats up that computer time and thus lends to its better accuracy.

  34. TO ALL:

    I encourage the debates and conversations about Global Warming, Global Cooling, Global Whatevering, and your opinions. I have my own set of thoughts, but I’ll hold most of them for now. Let’s put it this way, before I really say anything, I would pay attention to some very solid facts that Mr. Joe D’Aleo has presented in past talks at the SNE Weather Conference and on his web page.

    The only question I have (for now) is how do we account for known global ice-free periods before man was here? πŸ™‚

    I know that not everyone here is going to agree, and sometimes debates can get very lively when we are holding strong opinions. Talk about it. I’m also very happy that you all remain civil even when you are at opposite ends of a debate. Keep that up!

    I’m updating the forecast now and you may all continue there, or start a new topic – whatever you desire. πŸ™‚

    1. Thanks TK – but I should have asked first before posing the question I think. I have a tendency to check the sidebar that indicates new posts – which is a GREAT feature. I’m laughing hysterically at myself because when I saw you posted, I sort of held my breath :0 πŸ™‚

  35. TK,
    I knew which side of the debate you were on before it started. That is aok with me.

    You posed a question:

    The only question I have (for now) is how do we account for known global ice-free periods before man was here?

    I understand this and in a sense it was brought up in the discussions.

    Here is an old theory. I actually wrote a paper on this in college way back when:

    Milankovitch theory describes the collective effects of changes in the Earth’s movements upon its climate, named after Serbian civil engineer and mathematician Milutin MilankoviΔ‡, who worked on it during First World War internment. MilankoviΔ‡ mathematically theorized that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth’s orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth through orbital forcing.

    I know this is an old theory, and perhaps it has totally been debunked by now.
    But something radically happened in the past, so who knows. You asked.

    There are many more theories out here.

    Independent of that issue, greenhouse gases cause warming. CO2 is clearly a greenhouse gas and we are emitting a bleepload of it.
    It stands to reason it is doing something. Eactly what, we can’t be sure.

    So it is a debate that will rage on and on.

    1. Fascinating and thanks for sharing!

      I know there are so many theories (from farting animals to the sun to comets to alien visitors). Who knows for sure?

      I always maintain this: Regardless of where we stand on an issue, we should always, ALWAYS be conscious of what we do in our own environment. Even if we are not changing the global climate, we are more than capable of impacting ourselves for good or for bad in much smaller ways.

      Carry on!

    2. Thanks OS. That was great to read. I don’t think any of us will ever know although I also feel we are creating a problem. And totally agree that we have to care for our environment and so far we receive a failing grade and I’m not seeing a desire to improve.

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