Monday July 20 2020 Forecast

66 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 20-24)

A weak cold front will cross southeastern New England today and this evening, slicing into the hot & humid air we have in place. This will trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity, and timing suggests that maximum heating will result in the greatest chance of heavier showers and storms will occur from the I-95 belt southeastward during the afternoon. Drying takes place tonight, and Tuesday will be very warm and moderately humid, but noticeably more comfortable than today will be. Both tonight and Tuesday night should afford better opportunities to view Comet NEOWISE which appears in the northwesterly sky below the Big Dipper, visible to the naked eye if you have a fairly unobstructed view after 9:35 into the early morning hours. Cloudiness will make a come-back on Wednesday ahead of a warm front which will also bring a risk of showers and a return to higher humidity, which lasts through Thursday until a cold front passes by at night. Ahead of that front, expect a shower/thunderstorm risk. Somewhat cooler and significantly drier air will arrive beyond that cold front on Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with isolated showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 corridor southeastward. Very humid. Highs 87-94 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 85-92 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog lower elevations. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

A warm front brings increasing clouds July 25 with a risk of a shower at night. A cold front follows for July 26 with higher humidity and a risk for showers and thunderstorms. A west northwest flow means quick-moving summertime weather systems heading toward the end of the month so timing is suspect but expecting dry weather and low humidity for July 27, a quick return to humidity with a shower and thunderstorm risk July 28, then drier again at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

West to northwest flow aloft, a seasonably warm to occasionally hot mid summer pattern but no lasting or extreme heat expected. Occasional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms but drier than average overall for most of the region.

66 thoughts on “Monday July 20 2020 Forecast”

  2. As far as Logan goes, I do expect they will make or exceed 90 today (unless the cloud cover has other plans – but unlikely). That will make for the 3-day heatwave, which will break tomorrow when they get to about 86 or 87.

  5. From NWS regarding possible T-storms this PM

    The main challenge is to what extent this morning convection and
    cloud cover will impact potential for a few strong to severe
    storms to develop this afternoon. We do expect sunshine to
    develop later in the the morning as low and mid level moisture
    moves to the east which will allow instability to increase.
    Limited window for storms to develop this afternoon as mid level
    drying moves in to the west, so focus will be across eastern
    half New Eng. Expect isolated storms to develop this afternoon
    but areal coverage will be limited. Given the instability and
    steep low level lapse rates with inverted V sounding profile,
    localized damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.

  6. Thanks TK !

    Well, to the surprise of nobody, the GFS has somewhat backed off on the long term cool, dry air. The projection of a stalled upper low in the Maritimes looks more progressive in the current projections.

    Meanwhile, the Euro is a long term torch again.

      1. 🙂 🙂

        My July 20th weather resolution is I´m going to stop trying to figure out the weather for July 24 – 31 and just accept that its 2 to 3 days at most for a reasonable confidence on the models.

        Not good if we get a tropical system in the vicinity of the east coast north of say, 35N latitude or greater. The models have struggled so bad with the jet stream along and north of the US Canadian border in the medium range. It will be difficult to take anything serious about a track projection in the medium range.

    1. Yup, then we shall see if things destabilize enough
      for convection. I am skeptical as per usual.

    1. Poking through here and there around these parts. Should be our soon. Then we’ll see what happens, if anything.

  9. Interesting how the HHH blowtorch always wins out over the nice Summer Polar air, much like rain vs. snow events in winter. Oh well. 😉

    1. Not really.
      We haven’t had that hot a summer up to this stretch. And as for haze, almost non-existent.

      And as far as rain vs snow, that theory has already been proven incorrect several times. 🙂

      1. This has actually been one of the deepest blue sky summers I can remember. Saturday places like Hanscom and Westover had temps in the low 90s but dew points had fallen back into the 50’s. That certainly limits 2 of the H’s. Haze and Humidty.

  13. Sun has been out in Sutton for a couple of hours. Hot but with a lovely breeze so makes being outside comfortable….if you don’t move much

  15. Dew points 75-77 down here in RI near TF Greene. Feels exactly the same way as it does in Sarasota when I’m there in the summer.

  17. Echo JMA’s comments. Bluest sky I can remember in summer, ever actually. May be related to diminished economic activity, though that has picked up in recent weeks.

    Persistently cooler temperatures are coming. They’re about 6-7 weeks away. For some reason, happens every year.

  19. Showers? probably not

    We are still monitoring the risk for a few isolated showers and
    perhaps a t-storm or two later this afternoon and early evening.
    Despite 2-3K J/KG of Cape present across much of the region,
    winds are starting to veer out and mid level dry air was
    streaming in based on SPC meso-analysis. Still may see an
    isolated t-storm or two through early evening across eastern
    CT/RI and eastern MA, but areal coverage should remain quite
    limited if any form.

  20. 3:20 PM and still ALL CLEAR on radar, but as long as those
    dew points are still way up there, there is a chance. However,
    One would think something should have popped by now
    IF there was going to be anything at all.

      1. DP has dropped to 68 at Logan, therefore Should something pop, I am afraid it would be S&E of the City.

  22. Yesterday and today has the stifling feel when it comes to the heat and humidity. These are the only two days of the summer where I felt it was stifling. Thankfully not like July 2018 when there were a lot of days with dew points in the 70s.

  23. In the will see department tweet from Ryan Hanrahan for Wed.
    Interesting setup on Wednesday with a warm front moving through the state. This time of year you always need to watch warm fronts for rotating thunderstorms and tornadoes. We’ll be keeping an eye on it for you.

      1. Not for rotating storms. The chance for that “could” be better on Wednesday. As Ryan said, it’s an interesting set-up but it doesn’t mean it will come to fruition. Just watching.

  24. Ryan is thinking the warm front has a chance to produce something on Wed and sometimes you could get a strong to severe storm with a warm front. Philip your right Thursday does offer another chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm with the cold front. Neither day looks like widespread severe weather but isolated severe weather can’t be ruled out.

        1. Large, dark cloud, taking up about 1/3rd of our sky. Looks like it could start dropping big rain drops.

  28. I just have a bad feeling all these nice days this week hot & beach weather is going to curse me up Hampton next week I hope not . We pay $$$$$ for one thing beach weather !!!

    1. I’m glad you get to go. We’ve always enjoyed the weeks no matter the weather. I am sad we had to cancel this year but understand

      1. I got to be honest Vicki if it’s not beach weather up there it just puts a major damper on the week as that’s the routine we do breakfast, beach all day ( lunch on beach ) cookout at night then board walk that’s exactly how it goes . We are all paying for sunshine & warmth & hope that’s what we get as its an extremely expensive week

  29. Thank you, TK for your forecast!

    No thanks on the weather type, but there’s nothing you can do about that.

    This is a wimpy cold front. I want the Montreal Express version.

    The cold spot in Canada right now is Cape Providence, Northwest Territories. It’s 1.9C or about 35.5F. Even Alert is a balmy 41F. About 2-3 weeks from now that will begin to change, and the descent in temperature from early August to mid September is quite steep in the far, far north.

    1. Your reference to the NW Territories made me think of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and the Bay of Fundy.

      Been on many rides along Fundy, starting in St Johns, all the way to Truro in Nova Scotia. On a warm day up there, probably 85F, you can go from that 85F, suddenly down to 65F with fog, then back to 85F then back to the chill off of Fundy. It feels so good ! And the scenery is second to none.

  30. I know the Marshfield dp is too high (reporting 77), but I bet the 73-74 in Plymouth and other SE Mass locations is representative. The wind has eased off some. I was out on the deck briefly. Absolutely brutal. Reminded me of July 3rd a couple years ago, another brutal day of mid upper 90s with mid 70s dewpoints.

  31. If I had to answer the question “will somewhere in the Northeast US see a tornado on Wednesday?” I would answer yes. But I could not answer yes to anymore specific location than that right now. It’s a good setup. Maybe not an “outbreak” setup, but finally one with some decent wind fields and helicity to work with, things that are tough to come by in the heart of summer. Looking at the mid and upper levels and the jet pattern, it definitely matches one of the main archetypes for Northeast tornado events that I looked at back in my internship days at NWS Boston. So I’ll be interested to see how it plays out.

  32. WxWatcher sounds like your in Ryan’s Hanrahan’s camp with Wednesday being an interesting setup. Obviously not a slam dunk but one to keep an eye on. Will see if some action comes with the warm front Wed and then watch to see if any action comes with the cold front of Thurs.

    1. Yes, Ryan tends to be very in tune with these things, and it’s always prudent to watch days with a waffling warm front interacting with upper level disturbances like we’ll have Wednesday.

  33. Tom, that sounds like a wonderful trip you took – St. John’s, Bay of Fundy, Truro, NS.

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