Dry Spell, Roller-Coaster Temperatures

78 Comments

5:03PM

High pressure will continue to be the main player in the weather. One moisture-starved cold front will cross the region Thursday night with mild air ahead of it and a shot of cold air behind it for Friday-Saturday. Return flow behind high pressure will send more mild to eventually warm air into the region by early to mid next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the upper 20s inland valleys to middle 30s Boston and immediate coastline. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds move in from the west early then exit west to east before dawn. Low in the middle to upper 30s. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 40s. Wind NĀ  5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low in the middle to upper 20s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High in the upper 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH in the morning, becoming light variable in the afternoon.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 22. High 55.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 60.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 70.

78 thoughts on “Dry Spell, Roller-Coaster Temperatures”

    1. It’s day 7 so I’m just trying to verify a prediction I made last week. šŸ˜‰ I’m guilty of wishcasting in that I put the 70 when I probably should have put more like 65. HOWEVER, based on the Euro, it’s not impossible to make a run at 70 next Wednesday.

  2. At least Canada is showing signs of building cold air, just hope it’s not one of those cases where the 384 hour from every run has it finally entering our region.

    1. There will be 2 shots of cold air in the now-to-384 period: Friday/Saturday, and around or shortly after Veterans Day. Not the full pattern change yet – just a preview.

  3. I really enjoyed our previous discussion on global warming. This proves among other factors that TK’s blog is far superior to the WBZ blog. There is no way that a discussion of that magnitude would have held up over there without a bunch of troll’s comments having to be removed.

    I for one am looking forward to more of these lively but “civil” discussions in the future! Perhaps I may start one myself one day…LOL. Thanks Vicki! šŸ™‚

    1. Too bad “manowx” isn’t over here to have joined in that global warming discussion. I almost always disagree with him, but I would have liked to have read his thoughts anyway. šŸ™‚

    2. I agree- although I do not get into global warming, anything goes here and nobody will be lashed apon. We can talk weather, sports anything here. Also we all get along here.

  4. I have a good feeling that we will be in a warmer than normal pattern until Thanksgiving…now if only the leaves would turn and fall already. The landscape still looks like “August/early September” in many locals around Boston including mine.

    My bet is though that many will still be raking well after Thanksgiving…just hope no significant snow until I’m done. The upcoming warm up probably won’t help the foliage come along and only encourage the green to remain.

      1. TK, I am going to hold you to that date! LOL. šŸ™‚

        As for the oaks, they seem to always hang on even after Christmas…I never understood why.

  5. Thanks, Vicki – for starting a great discussion!

    And especially, thanks TK – for allowing me and everyone else here to be on this blog! I feel very fortunate to be part of this blog. No one in my family or my friends share my love of the weather as I do. They think I am crazy running to look out the window to look at the sky or the radars. Or to get excited by the potential of a big storm – winter or summer. I am looking forward to the day when I can meet everyone.

    Philip – I remember “manowx”. I was thinking of “manowx” during the discussion, too.

    2. Rain shine your welcome. And I love a good discussion. I have a teeny tiny blog where we post a topic a day and we all get along. Of course there are only a few of us. If anyone ever wants to join in please let me know.

      Like rain shine – sorry iPad insists on making your name two words – my family isnt a big fan of weather either. I really do love the opportunity to be here and learn from all of you. I also know first hand the tremendous amount of work and time TK puts into making this happen. Thank you!!

    1. Manowx, I am betting, though believing in Global Warming as a manmade event, dresses up their comments in a more dramatic fashion (“Al Gore still dancing”, for example) to get a reaction out of people. Whoever it is, is having a good time with it all.

      1. As annoying as he is sometimes, I never really thought of him as a troll or anything like that…in fact, I believe he does know weather to some extent.

  7. I agree. Great day of spirited blogging today. I always think that even though I may not agree with someones point of view, it does not mean I cannot learn something from their opinions.

    I also think its amazing that we could have this discussion without being stoned. By stoned I mean rocks being thrown at you. šŸ™‚

  8. Around January 1 there is going to be a Facebook page for this blog. It actually exists already, just not in use yet…

    2. Don’t put up too many “bells and whistles” TK…I actually like your blog the way it is right now! šŸ™‚

      When Todd Gross was dismissed from Ch. 7, he almost immediately started a blog/website much like yours, but he quickly started adding this-and-that and next thing you know, it got too big for my computer to load everything.

      1. Don’t worry. It’s all part of a grand plan. This blog itself will never change that much. The core of Woods Hill Weather will always stay. I am a traditionalist. šŸ™‚

        1. Glad to hear it TK. I’m big on technology but don’t trust FB. I think you are wise to spread out but love that this will stay as is

          1. FB is ok as long as you frequently check your settings. I’ve been on there for a very long time and have never had a problem. šŸ™‚

      2. Philip did you work with Todd in the weather spotters network? I set up that web site for him. He had a great network then 7 stopped it

        1. Nope…never was a weather spotter, just a fan. I used to e-mail questions/comments a lot though and he almost always responded immediately. Another negative about the WBZ blog is that the mets don’t answer questions as much as they used to. I like it when they give it back to the trolls, but it would be nice if they would respond to the legit questions/comments more often as well.

          1. Good points. I email pete b on occasion and he always answers me as well. He said 7 doesn’t want a blog with comments Too many problems. Smart

  9. Ah great! Next thing you know TK will be on accuweather and he totally forget about us.

    Occupy Woods Hill

    2. I am not going to AccuWeather and I would never forget my favorite weather bloggers! I’m staying right here…

  10. TK, it would be nice if you/we could bring some more bloggers over here before winter sets in. There are a handful of good ones still on the WBZ blog and they sometimes hint about coming over here…many of them are sick of the trolls.

    Matt Souza I believe is a senior in high school like Scott and he seems to really know weather…a lot of met potential IMO. He would be a great addition over here. The trolls always pick on him, but he holds his own.

    IMHO WBZ should eliminate the “comment” section of the weather blog, and just leave room for the mets discussions and anyone who has questions/comments, they can send them e-mails. As far as I know, that is what the other Boston stations do. In fact, I have sent Harvey some e-mails in the past and he has always got back to me the same or next day. If it wasn’t for the trolls and especially the “refreshing”, the WBZ blog could be the best in town because the mets presentations especially are overall very informative to say the least IMO. Also IMHO CBS is calling too many shots…I wish WBZ could go back to its “local” roots.

    2. I also have noticed him, if he is truley who you say he is he could definately benefit froms this blog. Philip, I wouldn’t worry about this blog changing for the worst. I think TK appreciates this outlet as much as we do.

      TK, and to anyone else that has a connection, could we invite the on air mets (Barry, Joe Joyce, Harvey, David, Dylan or my favorite Matt Noyes) to come here and blog?

      I think BM is Matt Noyes but I maybe wrong.

    3. TK and I have some skepticism about that Matt Souza “character”.
      I saw a Mike Souza at the weather conference who was studying meteorology at Umass Lowell(older brother?).
      But there definitely some bloggers still on WBZ that should be here.

      1. I’m 50/50 with Matt. His spelling seems to be of a lower grade level and could be similar to that troll tuna from last year. But if he is a kid in high school we should give him a shot.

        1. I do not believe Matt & Mike are related. Matt is a real person though, high school age. I found him on Facebook.

          I am 99.99999% sure BM is not an on-air met, but someone who worked in the private sector (possibly even with me) at some point. I was at the same place for just under 20 years and very many people went through there.

    4. I’d love for them to come on over. If coastal wants, we can use the same method we have since the beginning…

  12. If there is anyone there on BZ that you think we should invite, I would sugeest to send out my email address, then give me several question to ask him to see if he is legit. Tk can always band people.

    1. Thanks Coastal I will do that…I believe I still have your e-mail address. The problem is though that many of these bloggers discussed don’t hardly post over there at all anymore. Those trolls really messed up things and scared many away…even if there is significant weather to talk about. šŸ™

  13. 18z GFS continues to show what appears a pre-winter arctic outbreak, aimed for the mid-western states, moderating some as it approaches here. But this could mean some cold storms.
    Something to watch in the long range.

    2. I have been watching that as well.

      Each successive run seems to moderate it a bit more here. Not sure that it really means business just yet. We’ll see.

  14. I think Matt Souza is a kid in high school who would benefit being here. I don’t think he’s a troll either. WW I believe is a meteorologist as well, I think he has a website of his own. I also agree that manowx is harmless and does it more just get the trolls fired up.

  15. Summit of Mt. Washington at 37F this morning, elevated areas of Worcester and Blue Hill are both 41F. It is warm above, how high will the afternoon temps go ?

    Have a good day all !

    1. Hmmm…

      If we take the Dry adiabatic lapse rate which is 5.5 F per 1,000 feet
      and work backwards we can come up with something as a start.

      Looking at the 12Z NAM, 850MB temps look to be somewhere between
      4C and 8C. Let’s be conservative and take 5C or 41F.

      So 850MB is approximately 5,000 feet. 5 x 5.5 = 27.5.
      So surface temps could be as high as: 68.5 F (41+27.5).

      There are some other factors playing into that. Depending on dew points etc,
      the actual lapse rate may not be 5.5, it may be somewhat less? Winds play
      a factor is mixing the atmosphere.

      So one could estimate hight temps somewhere in the 60s.

      I know, the “official” forecasted high temp is somewhere around 60.

      Just trying to think out loud here.

      TK how far off in the reasoning is this?

      1. I just did a little more research. Looks like a different variable is typically used and it is called the environmental lapse rate,
        which is 3.56 F per 1,000 feet.

        Plugging that into the above, we get:

        41F+(3.56*5)=41+17.8=58.8 F

        Thus the upper 50’s to near 60 predicted high temperature.

  16. Thanks so much to all of the weather bloggers! I followed the BZ blog for 2 years until the chaos that took over last winter. I don’t have enough knowledge to post but love reading the analysis and comments. It’s great that everyone is so civil here. Keep it up!

    1. There’s no requirement on knowledge to post. Just post anytime you have a comment or a question, or just read. It’s up to you. šŸ™‚

    2. Hi Diane. I have no knowledge but a love of weather and this is the place to be so please post. šŸ™‚

    1. Hi Old Salty,

      I had some fun last year ranking the models like they rank the college football teams to determine the bowl games. (BCS championship).

      1. Tom,

        Hope you have as much or more fun with it this year.

        I’m really not into College Football. I follow the Pats and that is about it for Football. I was interested in BC while Flutie was there and then when my daughter was there and that was about it.

        1. Thanks……Love the Patriots and like yourself, paid attention to BC football during the Flutie era as well.

    2. Its The Bowl Championship Series and is used in college football to determine who plays for the National Championship. I don’t like it and wish the the winners of the 4 big bowls the Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta meet in and have like they do in college basketball a final four Saturday then a week later have the National Championship game.

  18. A teaser for way down the road.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F03%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=384&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Of course from a 996MB system, one would expect more precip than depicted here.
    And you should see the 500MB vorticity chart as well.

  20. Hi everyone! That storm was crazy. I still have family in connecticut with no power, no gas and no food. My brother said it took 3 hours to walk 1 mile each way to try to get gas in the snow. They had 10 inches down there. They ultimately ended up getting a hotel. My father in law just had a stroke and he too is without power. My wife went down there the other day and got him a generator so he could stay warm. And to boot, his CO detector went off as a result of the generator. While I love snow (an understatement), this storm was deadly and I hope everyone here gets power restored soon. I think we all agree that these snowstorms can be fun but it would be even more fun if peoples lives weren’t adversely affected. Stay warm:)

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