Saturday July 25 2020 Forecast

65 Comments

9:00AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 25-29)

Three days free of thunderstorm threats but not free of heat and building humidity. That will be this weekend and Monday for southeastern New England as high pressure shifts south of the region and a westerly flow taps the heat and humidity south and west of the region and pulls it in here. Tuesday and Wednesday will be when we’ll see a couple disturbances enter the region, triggering the threat of showers and thunderstorms once again.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89, cooler in some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-93, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Leaning a bit more optimistic about dry weather and lower humidity to end July. More humidity and a shower/thunderstorm threat may return to start August. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in how these days play out, detail-wise.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Weak west to southwest flow aloft with that pattern being “typical” summertime, warm to hot, limited but occasional shower and thunderstorm chances. Also may need to watch for a tropical system threatening the region at some point during this period.

65 thoughts on “Saturday July 25 2020 Forecast”

    1. With this morning’s 5:30 sunrise we have now lost 23 minutes since the earliest sunrise (5:07). Not “too” noticeable just yet.

  2. According to NHC, “Gonzalo” is still 100 miles east of Trinidad. However, the airport on Trinidad is reported southeast winds at 13 mph and a slowly rising pressure. On nearby Tobago, winds are east at 8 mph with a rising pressure as well. Winds peaked at 15 mph there a few hours ago.

    At least Hanna is legit.

  3. On a separate note, despite the hype from the NWS and TV guys, I don’t see Logan hitting 100 on Monday. To get that hot in Boston, you need a wind direction of 280/290, so that you get a little downsloping off the Worcester Hills/Monadnocks, and also the heat from city making it across to the airport. Most of the models have a wind direction of 250/260, which won’t get it done.

    I do think there’s a legit chance that Logan does not drop below 80 Monday night. I could easily see Logan still around 86 or so at midnight, and dropping to 81 or 82 for a low.

    1. Whether Logan hits 100,101 or 97,98 there is little difference.
      It will still be miserable.

      Personally, I would not rule out 100 just yet. But what do I know?
      🙂

      1. Oh, and if Logan doesn’t reach 100, doesn’t mean
        it doesn’t reach 100 in some of the neighborhoods like Allston/Brighton,JP,Hyde park, Roslindale and West Roxbury.

        We shall see.

        Either way, it looks to be a STINKER!

    1. Logan may not reach 90 today due to sea breeze. In fact, it may not reach your 86, unless we get the 4-6 PM switch to land breeze. I’ll bet the neighborhoods reach 90 today.

      I’ll give Logan 96 tomorrow and 99 on Monday. 🙂 🙂

      1. It will be very hard for Logan to get close to 100 without a precisely correct wind direction. I don’t see that happening.

        1. Yes, you and SAK are making your points.

          However, I still think it could happen.
          The inner harbor is very narrow and the water is quite
          a bit warmer than normal. The water off of the SNE south coast is warmer than normal as well.

          Therefore, I can still see it happening.

          I do not believe that the wind has to be 280/290 to do the job. A wind direction of 260/250 even 240 at this time can get the job done. 180-220 would certainly not get it done.

          Call me crazy, uninformed, stubborn or whatever you like, but that is how I see it. And I have been around a long time, and if I recall correctly, there have been a few times that Logan hit 100 with a SW wind and not W,WNW or NW. Agreed, most of the time the wind is more Westerly/WNW, but not every time. It depends upon how hot the air mass is and how warm the waters are.

          We’ll know Monday. 🙂

              1. Here are the last 6 times that Logan has hit 100 in the last 60 years.
                7/22/2011. Boston hits 103. Wind direction? 290
                7/6/2010. Boston hits 100. Wind direction? 010
                8/14/2002. Boston hits 100. Wind direction? 270
                7/14/1995. Boston hits 100. Wind direction? 270
                7/21/1977. Boston hits 102. Wind direction? 280
                8/2/1975. Boston his 102. Wind direction? 130 (Nantucket hit 100)

                2 of them were pure airmass-driven (1975 and 2010). The others weren’t. But please, keep telling me about all the times that Logan hit 100 with a SW wind.

  8. Logan is currently at 79 with an ESE sea breeze.
    Not reaching here in JP. My equipment is reading 87, but
    it is now in partial sunshine, so I estimate that it is 85. When in full sunshine, I need to subtract 4.

  10. Both my girls and families were at Humarock Wednesday night. The water temp was like bath water. Their thermometer read 80. I understand it is not 80 further out. It was low tide. And I understand it has not been that way other times my youngest and family visit (which is pretty much weekly). But they sure did enjoy it.

    1. Could easily have been 80
      the water temperature is 73 16 miles out at Boston Buoy,

      So the combination of the Sun, a light sea breeze and low
      tide could easily translate to 80.

  11. The 12Z HRRR has 850MB temperature on SUNDAY reaching
    21C. If accurate and proper mixing that could translate
    to the upper 90s.

    I know those are big ifs.

    Is the HRRR accurate?
    Will there be proper mixing?

    But even so, looks to be pretty HOT starting tomorrow.

  12. Current Boston Buoy water temperature 74.66 Degrees F.
    That buoy is 16 nautical miles East of Boston.

    Honestly, I don’t think I can say that I have EVER seen that
    high of a reading before. Certainly not that I can remember.

    That is an extraordinarily high reading. I do wonder where
    it stands for a record reading? Do they keep such stats?

    1. Wow. And I would think there are some stats. I recall one year in 1990s water was as warm At Humarock
      as kids described

    2. The NWS keep records I believe. It’s rare to see it get that warm there, but once in a while it does. We have some nice warm eddies lurking this summer. Another reason for the warmth is a greater-than-average amount of days with northeast or east wind. That holds water in at the coast longer and allows it to heat better than persistent west winds which result in regular upwelling after surface water is blown out to sea.

  13. Logan is up to 82 with SE breeze at 9 mph.

    Temperature will jump if that wind shifts to a land breeze.
    If not, it may still go up a degree or 2. Something like that.

  14. Somebody I was talking with just described today as “incredibly hot & humid”.
    Middle 80s, dew point lower 60s. Hmm.

    Another example of the power of suggestion in media. If you are told that the weekend is going to be very hot and humid, when only part of it is, you may very well think it is like that start to finish. Proof again that it happens at least with some people. 🙂

  15. Logan still hanging at 82, dp 63 with 10 MPH ESE wind.

    my equipment reading 91, which means temperature is likely
    to be 87.

    It is 88 at Norwood.

    1. Sharks must love it. As I recall the water got pretty warm in the summer of 1995. We know what happened that winter – 95-96. I recall some mets attributing the intensity of the storms to the warm ocean waters, of course, together with a nearly constant cold air mass near or over us.

  19. Logan, ESE at 14 mph, temp 81 with dp 63.
    Nice day at the water’s edge.

    My equipment is reading 91 so likely it is 87.

  20. Thanks TK.

    Another hot one at the softball fields today. Today it’s back to back to back games. Car temp said 95, Hartford is reporting 92. The saving grace today is definitely the lower humidity. And fortunately some cloud buildup the last hour or so.

    1. Oh goodness. Mark, you’re a trooper, as is your daughter. Standing in the hot sun and not moving for stretches can actually make it feel even hotter. That’s one disadvantage of softball/baseball and, say, soccer.

      Good luck with your daughter’s team. The bombers, right?

      1. Yes this is her Bombers team again. First game they beat southington 1-0. Apparently that team was 11-1 coming in! Second game is about to start.

        This is the first year she has done this team. It is quite a commitment with tournaments every weekend. It was supposed to have been done early June but with COVID the whole season was essentially pushed back two and a half months. Now we are playing in the dog days of summer….good times!

        1. Ugh. I read this to my equestrian daughter earlier. We were at her distanced 40th birthday. She groaned in sympathy. This was peak horse show season so she sympathized with you and especially your daughter and teammates

  21. 18Z HRRR has MAX 850 mb temps across our area
    at 17C which would indicate high surface temps to
    be right about 90 or so and that is where the inland
    temperatures are.

    So, will it be correct for tomorrow and Monday????

  22. Thank you, TK. I always appreciate your forecasts and candor, even when the weather’s isn’t agreeing with me.

  23. TK or SAK – any thoughts on the weather up at Stowe VT this coming week? We have rented a house up there for 5 nights and are leaving Monday. Looks like Tuesday may end up the wettest day with the frontal passage but the NWS has some afternoon shower chances Wednesday and Thursday. Hoping the rest of the week ends up mostly dry!

    1. Enjoy. Beautiful area as you know. Macs cousin and husband just returned from their home there.

        1. I’m jealous. We have been invited to use the home any time. There are a lot of memories of Mac there so none of us have felt ready. But I think we are getting there.

          1. You should do it. I know you have been holed up at home for a long time and it would be a nice change of scenery. And maybe bring back some good memories too!

  24. 18Z Euro advertising 22C 850 mb temps on Monday and Tuesday!!!!
    I do NOT like that at all. That “could” translate to surface
    temps of 100.

    Advertising due West wind on Monday and more SW on Tuesday.

  25. Had a nice hike up Mount Wachusett this AM. We started early and were off the hill by 11 am. Humid but not awfully so. Regular groups passing but folks were pretty respectful and most donned masks. Glad to be home this afternoon.

  28. 973 mb on Hannah, that’s a pretty low pressure for 85 mph winds. Strengthening storm that the winds have not ‘caught up to’ the pressure yet. Good thing this is coming ashore before it gets any stronger.

    1. parts of the south eye wall apparently was approaching cat 2 strength. If it had more time I bet this system could have easily have come a bat 2 maybe even cat 3. We are lucky that the large size has made it harder for the winds to catch up.

  29. Mark…
    I can’t argue with the NWS’s ideas on the week ahead. Tuesday is the highest storm threat. There is a threat both Wed & Thu as it looks now, but not the type I’d cancel plans over – just have a shelter available to get to if need be.

    1. Thanks TK. We are planning to do some hiking, biking and river kayaking. I think we will try to get out the first half of the day Wed and Thursday. Finding shelter might be tough if we are standing on the top of Mount Mansfield 🙂

      1. Mt. Mansfield is such a great place to be, Mark. I love it there. Enjoy!

        Your daughter’s team is really good.

        I’m so glad they are getting a season in.

        I’m also glad the even younger folks are enjoying summer. It’s great, for example, to see the local day camp running pretty much at full steam, with all the kids running around in the Esplanade Park, playing soccer, kick ball, and wiffle ball.

  30. The weather in Northwestern Europe is … typical for this time of year. Much cooler than here, but that’s the way it’s `supposed’ to be. Generally, while we bake and have prolonged spells of our usual heat and humidity they have a prevailing southwesterly with fairly weak lows that traverse the region and provide sprinkles or light rain, but also some partly cloudy days with highs in the 60s. Sounds fantastic to me right now.

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