Monday July 27 2020 Forecast

94 Comments

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 27-31)

And down the home stretch of July we come! Mid summer heat will be dominant through Tuesday as upper level high pressure controls the weather here. But a cold front approaching on Tuesday will set off some showers and thunderstorms for some, possibly not all, of the region. What it will do for all the region is bring the heat and humidity down somewhat for midweek, a trend that will hang on right through Friday as a weak reinforcing trough passes by during Thursday. One potential fly in the ointment is we may have to watch that trough line early Friday as a little wave of low pressure may form on it, at least holding cloudiness in the region for a time on Friday and possibly becoming the focus for a little wet weather. But this part of the forecast is low confidence and subject to tweaking as the week goes along.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highest humidity this morning then may dry out slightly this afternoon especially north of I-90. Highs 92-99 except cooler parts of South Coast especially Cape Cod. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid again. Lows 73-80, warmest in urban locations. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds South Coast early, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure will control the weather with dry weather and low to moderate humidity for the August 1-2 weekend. An increase in humidity and shower risk comes after that, and we may need to keep an eye on a tropical system near or off the East Coast toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This should increase the shower and thunderstorm risk somewhat during this period.

94 thoughts on “Monday July 27 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I see that your temperature range for today has been upped
    slightly. Curious to know what your current prediction is for Logan today? yesterday you gave it 94, previously you had
    96.

    Personally I’d give it 97 today with a chance for an even higher reading. 10Z HRRR predicting a 98 for Boston and so far the
    temps are close to on track. For 8AM 10Z HRRR had 82 for Boston, when in fact it is now 81. Close, but perhaps underachieving. Will continue to monitor.

    Blending all of the models I looked at, I would give Logan
    a 97 today. It has a good beat and one can dance to it.

  4. 12Z HRRR running behind on temperature projectiosn.

    For 13Z (9AM) it has Boston at 86. Currenting reading (8:58 AM)
    is 84, so that is 2 degrees too high.

  6. Whether Boston Makes 94,95 OR 98,99, it will be one
    heck of a warm night with 850 MB temperatures running 21-22 C overnight.

  7. Thanks TK !

    So, we had some Marshfield friends, who live down the street, stop at the campground yesterday for the afternoon, as they were down in Rhode Island.

    My wife asked our friend if they would bring me home last night. She encouraged me to come home til Wed or Thurs because she knew the warm nights are a struggle for me.

    So, I´ll head back down Wed or Thurs after this bout of heat subsides to something a bit more reasonable.

    It felt so good to be cool again last night.

    There are other friends camping with my wife and daughter, so they aren´t alone. In fact, our group occupies 3 sites, side by side by side.

    Anyhow, stay cool everyone.

  8. Compared to 24 hrs ago, Mt Washington´s temp currently is +8F and Logan´s temp is +4F, compared to this time, yesterday.

  9. Thanks, TK…

    84.6 currently here and climbing. DP is 66.

    The all-time max low here was 78* on July 31, 1917. It will be a warm night tonight but probably not that warm.

    Got the American Bandstand reference earlier, JPD!

    Yesterday was Mick Jagger’s 77th birthday.

    For Musical Monday, I offer you the link below. Watch the crowd’s reaction in Buenos Aires, Argentina! This reaction is the same one I get from my students every first period at 7:15 am! They are so happy to be in Spanish class!

    Tom, I know your kids feel the same when they walk into your math classroom! 🙂

    Stay cool, y’all!

    Mick and The Stones:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgYNbWtwonM&list=RDMMxgYNbWtwonM&start_radio=1

    1. LOL, Captain ! Sure …….

      I do think I might look a bit like Keith Richards by 2:30 pm some days 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  11. If the dp´s are going to remain between 65F and 70F today, then I will guess 95F at Logan.

    If we get some mixing this afternoon and the dp´s drop to 59F or so, I will guess 98F at Logan.

  12. 10:53 AM and Logan has officially reached 90. With up to
    5-6 hours of heating to go, how high will it go????

    DP still 66.

  13. From NWS/BOX Twitter:

    Not even 11am and we are 90°F with a dewpoint of 73°F at our office in Norton, MA. For reference that equates to 99°F heat index

  14. Interesting,, Logans temp was 90, then dp popped up
    to 67 and temp dropped to 89. Then dp dropped back
    to 66 and temp popped back to 90.

    On another note: Wind at Logan now WSW.

      1. That’s what mine reads but the nearest wunder does as well. I tend to check and double check. Not sure how exact location plays into dee points but would be interested

  16. 14Z HRRR now saying 100 in Boston by 4PM.
    It’s temperatures are on track so far. Doesn’t mean they
    will stay that way.

  18. Logan is up to 91, however, signs that the gradient might be
    loosening up. Wind West at only 6 mph. Is a sea-breeze
    in the making. Yesterday TK mentioned that it might be
    a possibility. If it happens, Logan’s high will be capped for sure.

  19. Did a jumbo jet just fly over Logan’s wind vane?
    Wind is flopping all over the place. Now WNW at 10 mph.

  20. Watching out to about 84 hrs on both the NAM and GFS ……

    I see they advertise a humidity drop later Tuesday night …..

    But, as disturbances rotate around this trof located in eastern Canada, ahead of the disturbance, any time the sfc wind briefly turns WSW or SW, parts of southeastern New England may experience bursts of higher humidity as that wind direction comes off of the now, very warm Long Island Sound and Ocean south of New England. Water temps running in the mid-upper 70s. The models, in their dp projections hint at these humidity rises ahead of Wednesday´s disturbance, paticularly in SE Mass, perhaps Providence to Boston, points S and E.

    1. Good pick up Tom and you may very well be correct.
      I hope it does not happen or if it does, it stays South of Boston,
      I don’t want no stinken humidity!

  21. Yesterday vs todayś heat indices:

    Sunday, Plymouth at noon: 90F, dp: 63F, Heat indice: 91F

    Monday, Plymouth at noon: 92F, dp: 69F, Heat indice: 97F

    Sunday, Providence at noon: 91F, dp: 63F, Heat indice: 92F

    Monday, Providence at noon: 94F, dp: 67F, Heat indice: 97F

    Sunday, Worcester at noon: 82F, dp: 61F, Heat indice: 83F

    Monday, Worcester at noon, 86F, dp: 67F, Heat indice: 89F

    Sunday, Logan at noon: 86F, dp: 59F, Heat indice: 85F

    Monday, Logan at noon: 91F, dp: 66F, Heat indice: 94F

    So, a few degrees hotter and a handful degrees higher dewpoints has it feeling about 6F hotter at this time today compared to yesterday.

  22. JPD…
    I had 94 but I can see 95 for Logan. again heavily dependent on wind direction but I do think they may have a wind shift more to the southwest or south that will knock them back a little bit. they really need that 290 to shoot to the upper 90s. We do get a little bit more of a shift to the west I think this afternoon but it may not be nearly enough to do it at that location. what I do think may happen is that the dew point may drop off several degrees at that point.

              1. I have another manual thermometer in another location that is reading the same so I know it is accurate. I enjoy data as well and it would drive me crazy if it wasn’t accurate.

                1. Hahaha. We are a lot alike. I double check all which reminds me I need a new rain gauge. Not sure what’s up with mine if anything. But my second and third both broke

        2. hmm Worcester airport is at 1,000 feet and has a temp
          of 90. You should be at like about 92 or so. I don’t get it?

  27. Before I make a case here, I fully agreed that the Logan thermometer needed to be calibrated and that it was running too hot the last few years, at least, producing unrealistic high temps.

    I believe the calibration was ´overdone´ however and now, I would offer that it has gone from running 2 to 3F too warm to 1 to 2F too cool.

    Ok, 1,000 ft Worcester airport is reporting 90F. Norwood is reporting 95F. Hartford is reporting 95F. Plymouth is reporting 96F. Providence is reporting 97F.

    Concord, NH; Manchester, NH; and Portsmouth, NH are all reporting 94F.

    Now, meteorology of the 850 mb temps says that a bit south of Boston could have the highest temps temps as that is where the warmest bullseye of 850 mb temps should be. So, reasonably, it is understandable that Providence and Plymouth should be warmer than Boston with that factor and a WSW wind. So, Boston probably isn´t 96 or 97F.

    However, Worcester is 90F and the 3 NH locations are 94F and using the same logic, Boston should be a bit warmer than the 3 locations and it should have a temp that is a little warmer than the 4F difference it has with Worcester.

    Putting it all together, I think 95F to 95.5F is a more reasonable expectation of Boston´s Logan temp. There has been nothing on satellite suggesting Logan has seen thicker cloud cover than anywhere else and there is all that pavement and heat retaining buildings over there, that should make it a hotter temp than some other reporting stations.

    The prosecution rests its case.

      1. Thanks.

        My question would now be, what is Worcester, Plymouth, Norwood, Providence, Manchester, Concord and Portsmouth´s updated temps.

        If, the 3 NH location temps have upped to say 95F at 3pm and Norwood, Providence and the other locations have gone up 1F since 2pm, then I´d hypothesize that Logan should be 96F or 96.5F. I´ll have to see the 3 pm obs. 🙂 🙂

    2. And what case are you making? Logan’s temp is exactly where you said it should be, at 95.

    3. A. Manchester has been reading 2-3 too warm for a few years now (Lawrence too).
      B. Yes there’s a lot of pavement and buildings in Boston, but also remember, the airport is surrounded by water on 3 sides.
      C. The difference in 850mb temps is negligible across the region, so that really won’t have much of an impact. The dewpoints will probably have a bigger impact.
      D. The 95 at Logan fits in perfectly with the other obs around the city, which are all 94-97.

      94 in Everett
      95 at Northeastern
      95 in South Boston
      95 in the Financial District
      95 at BC
      96 in Cambridge
      96 in Winthrop
      96 in Alewife
      97 in Roxbury
      97 in Somerville

      1. Thanks SAK. Well, it is performing better certainly than the past many years. I´m going to stubbornly stick with my theory, but you give enough data above to make a compelling case too. At least its not off by multiple degrees, as it was recently.

    4. Tom having watched also temps at4th cliff and along the shores before and after the “calibration,” I have thought the same. Case well made

      1. Thanks Vicki !

        Well, at least we are not debating over multiple degrees. Perhaps 1F falls within the threshold of acceptable error.

        I have always liked numbers and data, so comparing temps in warm and cold seasons is something I really like to do.

        1. Wait…..you like numbers? Well knock me over with a feather 😉 😉 What is that saying anyway

          But that said, as I have always enjoyed the same

      2. I should have added fourth cliff has been off or not even registering for a bit so I have discounted it for a couple of weeks.

  28. For example, Manchester, NH is reporting 96F at 3pm. Portsmouth, NH reporting 95F.

    Concord, NH stayed the same, 94F, but supposedly, its dewpoint climbed 11F in the last hour.

    I just feel that number at Logan looks a 1F or so too low, now when looking at the other obs. 🙂 🙂

    I think 96F at Logan for this reporting hour makes more sense, given all the obs around it.

  29. From several decades of observation, Logan’s thermometer is right where it needs to be.

      1. You will not get an argument for me on the location. At least in terms of representation. Having the thermometer there is very important since it is a major airport, but I think we all agree it is not very representative as a climate location for the city of Boston.

  30. Cape Cod certainly has had a hot day today, consistently reporting upper 80s to very low 90s. Even Nantucket got to 84F.

    The Hyannis airport temp seems like an outlier, though. 🙂

  32. Catching up on the weather today, I was a bit surprised that Hurricane Douglas maintained as well as it did, when passing northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

    1. It held on pretty well for a while but it was also much less impactful than was made to sound it would be.

      News outlets were talking about the islands being battered by high winds and torrential rains when they had light to moderate rainfall and wind gusts under 50 mph. It was really not that big a storm for the islands.

  33. Thank you, TK.

    Pretty impressive temperatures in parts of Nunavut today. 25.3C (77.5F) at Bathurst Inlet. That translates to VERY HOT in Inuit. Stefansson Island, Nunavut, on the other hand, is only 1.7C (35F). They’re not that far from each other. One is far southwestern part of the province, the other in the far northwest. Same longitude.

  34. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1

    I shouldn’t have looked at the 4pm Obs : I’m sorry for beating a dead horse.

    Except for new bedford, which is also 93, and reporting a west wind, Logan’s temp is lower than every other ob in eastern Mass and has the lowest dp/rh in eastern mass. No way ! Now, if they had a slightly higher dp than everyone else, that would explain things. Either that, or every other ob needs it thermometer recalibrated.

    And 1,000 ft Worcester airport is 91F. 2F difference with a west wind ???

    1. Logan is currently reporting 95. I still think that it is perfectly appropriate. Worcester is 1,000 feet. Logan is essentially sea level. That alone would account for roughly 5 degrees is all.
      91 to 95 is 4 degrees and since they are 40 miles apart. I am not going to argue that. I don’t see anything wrong.

      I think you are Heat Cranky. 🙂

    3. I’m going to have to disagree strongly. Logan’s temp falls right where I thought it would be with the conditions that exist today. It is definitely not in the upper 90s there. Definitely not.

  35. Logan has now had 7 days of 90F. That is halfway to normal (14).

    I will predict 18 total for Logan. Sadly I believe that the next two months will be more hot than not. YUCK!!!

    Most communities surrounding Boston are already at double digits of 90F I believe.

  36. So far the Caribbean is being spared not sure how long that will last but one thing for sure the MDR is extremely dry due to the strong heat ridge not moving above the Atlas MTNs in Africa. Until that happens winds can pick up Saharan dust and push it into the MDR. This is what is keeping the MDR at bay for now. Invest 92L is struggling not sure if even gets named and if it does it probably happen off the east coast as a fish storm. I am wondering if Invest 92L will be similar to Gonzalo in terms of weather conditions in the NE Caribbean. Just some rain and gusty winds

    1. 92L is one of the largest disturbances of that type I have seen out there on quite a while. That may be hindering its development. a friend of mine joked that it looks like a hurricane with no thunderstorms in it. 😀

    1. A good enough land breeze today that there was definitely some cold upwelling. The water’s along the east coast of New England have been anomalously warm this year because we have had an above average amount of easterly wind.

  40. Max of 95 at Logan stood up. That was only 1 off my 94 prediction. I’ll take it. They never had a shot at 100 today.

    Tuesday they get a 92.

    1. Good Job TK and SAK as well. Both of you said 100 is not in play and to pay no attention to the TV and NWS hype about it.

      One thing for sure, it was a very warm overnight.

      Unless the temp dropped a degree between obs times. it looks
      like Logan’s low overnight was 79 breaking the old record of 78.

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