Thursday July 30 2020 Forecast

92 Comments

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

A cold front will slog across the region from northwest to southeast today. This front will be responsible for triggering a few showers and thunderstorms in southeastern New England. It will then hang up just to the south of New England through Friday. To start out with, activity today will be isolated at first, then with some sun’s heating expected a few more showers and storms to pop up, but activity may favor areas near and south of I-90, especially from mid afternoon on. This activity will linger near the South Coast tonight into Friday mostly in the form of showers as a wave of low pressure moves along the front just to the south. High pressure wins out later Friday into Saturday. Later in the weekend, a northward push of that frontal boundary introduces more cloudiness, humidity, and a risk of showers at some point Sunday and again on Monday as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. More humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring the South Coast. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast. Clearing afternoon. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

The NHC forecast track for TS Isaias puts to a position south of New England while recurving by August 4. We may be in a plume of tropical moisture with showery conditions even if the center does not pass that close to the region, but we can’t discount a closer track as well this far in advance, so something to watch. The remainder of the period will feature seasonably warm weather and limited risks for showers and thunderstorms but will fine-tune this part of the forecast over the next few days.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Current indications continue to show a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.

92 thoughts on “Thursday July 30 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So in other words, the City gets SCREWED yet again today,
    I would be willing to put money on that one. 🙂

    Hope I am wrong, we need some water.

  6. I caved in as I was sick and tired of my Davis temperature sensor
    reading 4 degrees high in direct sunlight. I ordered their
    radiation shield. We’ll see how well it works or not.

    3. You are very welcome. I didn’t find it, but am also glad a friend shared with me. It sure is fascinating!!

    1. I know it was imperative to find the center, but I was interested in if they were going to take a pass through the thunderstorms to the northeast. They are doing that now and as shown, the flight level winds have ramped up.

  13. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=can&band=10&length=12

    As I mentioned last night, I’d like to see a couple high altitude recon missions to gather some atmospheric data to go into the models.

    One obvious one should be in the area surrounding Bermuda to get a better sampling to help the models project the Atlantic ridge.

    But, the other one is this. This trof west of Hudson Bay. We need to know how that is going to interact with the southern us trof because I think it can have huge implications on the sharpness of the trof at our latitude.

    1. to verify, the trof in Canada I´m referring to is not the one to our north now, but the one in the western prairies.

      If you go to around Montana, then head northward to that trof.

      1. Agreed that this is what the projection shows.

        IF this projection happened, we´d be more affected by heavy rain with maybe Nantucket in the eastern side dealing with the wind aspect.

  16. Having forecast Argentina’s weather daily for years, it was always fun dealing with the weather patterns around that area. 🙂

  18. I really feel like the east coast is sitting blind.

    Another indirect effect of Covid, keeping less planes in the air in the mid latitudes, magnifying the models struggles along the US/Canada border with the jet stream for this exact time period. (96 – 144 hrs),

    I don´t trust how they are handling this trof. Their current projections could be so far off, that this system could hook a left into the mid-atlantic, if the trof ends up deeper or even cut off and the system could end 300+ miles SE of Nantucket if the 2 trofs don´t connect in some way.

  19. Not towering by any means, but the cumulus clouds have really developed down here the last 20 to 30 minutes.

    1. Not looking like much of anything around here.
      I’d wager Boston does NOT see a drop of rain today.

      Let’s see how that works out. 🙂

    1. Loops for Tropical Storm Isaias

      https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=765&initrange=22.250000000000:-76.000000000000:13.750000000000:-62.000000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

    1. Very nice, JpDave !

      Whether its a mid level or low level circulation, I feel like there´s one on the northern coast of the Dominican Republic and that the mountainous regions aren´t going to impact this as much as they could have.

  23. Interesting.

    79 at the airport with East wind
    90 at Norwood with West wind

    My equipment is reading 89 with the sun mostly in.
    probably 87 or 88 here now.

    1. Yes, decent SW wind down here too, most everywhere down here is at or just under 90F. Wonder if Logan will come around the next few hours.

  24. Mid Atlantic ridge projecting a bit stronger on the 12z Op run so far.

    Hr 120 projects landfall around Wilmington NC

  25. WHOA !!

    Right up over eastern LI and just west of Worcester.

    989mb, so not a monster, but I can´t recall a EURO run showing a tropical system coming thru New England

    1. I guess we have something to keep tabs on ……

      Really like the EURO maps you posted above, thanks !

      1. Since Mark doesn’t seem as interested off season, I’ll fill the void. 🙂 🙂

        Still a long way to go and anything could happen.

        We shall see.

        Conceivably, it could be a CAT 1 when it gets here.
        I suppose there is a remote possibility it could be a CAT2,
        but in all probability, it will be a TS.

  29. 18Z tropical model spaghetti plots have come NW a bit.

    Near New England, 95% of them between Cape Cod and benchmark, but all projected tracks at 18z are inside the benchmark (40/70)

  30. The operational ECMWF’s 12z run is literally a piece of shit today, especially with regards to timing of features.

    Way. Too. Slow. We’ve seen this before. Always too slow with recurves.

      1. The position and subsequent movement of the highs to the west and north west make no sense with any sort of great lakes troughing, especially in a continued zonal flow. Neither does positioning and timing of the system as to the position of the ridging to the SE. Just utter crap that is going to be bought on by not only the internet and social media masses but also the mindless drones that populate parts of the Met community.

    1. Couple of cells in N Central to interior NE MA now. They are not in any hurry. The stuff is almost random looking except for the obvious seabreeze boundary on the CT Coast.

  33. After seeing the 5pm advisory, I am thinking of the words of immortal Bond villain Elliot Carver: ” Let the mayhem begin.”

    1. I was just thinking that, actually. “OMG OMG! Now they have it intensifying to a HURRICANE!” Well, gee, that would be because the track being a bit further OFFSHORE away from Cuba’s influence to gain some strength and then offshore FL enough to maintain it before it completes its recurve. Funny how a little meteorology makes it pretty clear why…

  36. Lynn, Swampscott , Marlblehead and surround area
    got rocked awhile ago with a pretty potent thunderstorm.
    Sky was very dark to our NE. Looked like a hail signature on
    radar.

    1. Yes, we did. Sheets and sheets of rain, the kind that kids like to run outside in, barefoot, stomping in puddles. It was fun to watch.

  38. Getting a little bit frustrating with the storms that seem to dissipate a mere 3 miles before hitting or last minute redevelopment to our north south and East , have received 1.14” for the month of July so far and half of that came with one storm at the beginning of the month. Everything here is so dry. I was talking to my neighbor today and he said it’s only the 2nd time in 27 years living there that he has had to add water to his pool. Last night around 12:30 we had a severe storm head right toward us and at the last minute the southern edge of the storm dissipated by only 1 mile away on the mass pike it was down pouring according to radar. I had 20 seconds of some fat drops that barely wet the ground. Rant over! 😉

    1. I wondered if that cell has poofed just before you.

      We went to odd even watering today. We are an even house so means we miss two days and even with the water We do which we limit, it is Very dry.

  39. This year the way the pattern is you got to get lucky to have a good thunderstorm. I happen to be back on the last Sunday of June.

    1. We had one amazing storm and a couple of small ones Weeks ago. It was enough water to get our brown lawns on a rebound and watering after helped. But nothing lately.

      1. It was nice. I was picking up my daughter from work. Quite a lot of lightning with that cell.

  41. To be fair we have had multiple days with some storms but for some odd reason this area seems to be the graveyard of storms lately. I don’t think the geographic location and topography have much to do with it here, I think it’s just bad timing of pulsing storms, as it seems like most of these storms have been this summer rather than your strong fronts with a solid line of storms that cross most of the state. Vicki I think you have seen more storms than I have because they died out over my head then redeveloped just east of me over you, but with that said you are still abnormally dry too. A tropical system can certainly help with the rain but I don’t think it will be enough because most of it will come as torrential downpours and just run off unfortunately. We need a few days of all day gentle rains to help.

    2. I think you are right, SC. I recall some dying and developing. Or some training up from SW to NE

  43. Most of those tracks are one’s during the winter you want to see if you love snow. The best thing would be to get some beneficial rain from this tropical system.

  44. The euro has been more accurate than the other models so far with this system but thats not saying much as all the models have been having extremely difficult time with Gonzalo, Hanna and now Isaias. I do not trust any of them but looking at the ensembles gives you a better idea.

  45. Isaias is a much larger storm than we have scene lately from what I’m reading so even a glancing blow and transitioning to extra tropical could make impacts more wide spread correct?

  46. I know not to use the NAM for tropicals but I felt compelled too share this …

    00z NAM : 990 + mb off Florida coast @ hr 60

    00 3km NAM : 951 mb off Florida coast @ hr 60

  47. 00z GFS maintains a hit. Low 980s mb weakening to 990 or so tracking thru eastern Mass and then offshore just east of Boston.

    Onto the Euro

  48. We have a hurricane.

    I was wondering what the nic was going to do with the flight level winds the aircraft just encountered.

    1. So much for “it won’t reach hurricane strength”. I said it before and I’ll say it again. Intensity forecasts suck. NHC keeps it as a Cat 1. Anyone wanna bet it reaches Cat 2 or 3? It’s over bathwater right now.

  49. https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/natlanti.c.gif

    The east coast better hope wind shear holds this entity in check, because from the Bahamas to Cape Hatteras, it’s got 29C (85F) ocean water and a pure steam bath above the ocean with dp’s running 75 – 80F.

    One aspect of this thing is, in some aspect, it’s been spinning since it seemingly left the coast of Africa. And now, it’s developed this strong, compact vortex.

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