There is some good news to report. Daily case numbers are still very high in the hot spots, but diminishing, as are hospitalizations. The worst is over in the hot spots. The next cluster of hot spots is the Midwest and rural areas like Idaho (it’s been perhaps the worst hot spot in the past 4 weeks, not only in America, but worldwide).
Very interesting article. Thank you, Joshua, for continuing to share these. The T cell theory is fascinating. I would like to know more about studies with regard to those who are truly exposed yet do not get Covid. There is a ton to learn but with the world all focused on the same thing, we are moving along at what I think is a remarkable rate.
What I would like to know is why do those who “recover” from COVID still end up with continued health concerns? Red Sox P Eduardo Rodriguez now has a recurring heart ailment (inflammation) that could very well end his career and maybe even his life later on. That is very concerning AFAIC.
Agree. It is concerning. It’s the most difficult question to answer at this point: Why some people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, and others get very sick or have long-term effects.
There is some good news to report. Arizona peaked a couple of weeks ago, and is in gradual recovery mode. Still over 1,000 new cases daily, but hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing.
Florida data will look better today than it ought to, because of the hurricane. The storm closed most of the coastal testing sites. Still, hospitalizations there appear to be decreasing slightly.
California appears to have also peaked, with decreasing hospitalizations.
I still think that by tomorrow the deaths numbers will be quite high. But, I believe (and hope) that as a nation we peaked (in our `2nd’ wave) at around 1,475 deaths per day last week. I think (hope) we’ll stay under that this week.
The wildcard is the Midwest, parts of which were relatively unscathed from March to July, but are now being hit hard. We could see significant spikes there.
If `my’ theory holds up, however, once the coronavirus hits a region hard, it doesn’t appear to come back with nearly the same ferocity. It’s as if the virus picks off the weakest and most vulnerable in the hot spots. After that, those who get the virus tend to be mildly symptomatic.
Thanks for confirming that cellular immunity may play a role, which is something I have been wondering about for a while. I started my career as a bench biologist, and did proliferation assays which test for this kind of immunity.
The cross reactivity immunity concept is intriguing. As someone who’s has suffered through many colds, this is encouraging. Perhaps this will protect teachers as well, as they get every virus that comes down the pike until they have had them all…
Not a Covid-19 note, but the first human case of EEE in Massachusetts has been reported in Middleborough. It is a young person between the ages of 11-20.
Probably the best Covid-19 news in the last couple of days since early to mid June.
Good news in Massachusetts, as new daily cases were under 200 for the first time in a while. Also, test positivity is around 1.3%.
Nationally, positivity rate is down to 7.6%, which is still too high. But, we’re gradually improving. Hospitalizations continue downward trend. Still many hospitalized and in ICU. But, any downward trend is good news.
I’m cautiously optimistic about the current hot spots. My concern is the Midwest. Hopefully, they will learn from what has happened in the South. If I were governor I would halt reopening there and enforce mask and physical distancing rules. Be strict now, you’ll avoid thousands of deaths (which have occurred in the South in July) later.
Dr. Birx said this yesterday: “This epidemic right now is different from March and April in that it’s more widespread and it’s both rural and urban.” She’s correct. That makes it more difficult to contain.
Trump said this today: “We are beginning to see evidence of significant progress nationwide. … An encouraging sign, very encouraging, I have to add, that the virus is receding.” He’s correct that there appears to be a hopeful trend of fewer new daily cases, and some (NOT significant) progress nationwide. The caveat is that we’re coming down from a tremendously high peak. But, he shouldn’t have added “the virus is receding.” It’s not. It’s dispersing more widely. It is less intense in certain hot spots, which is good, but spread out over a much greater number of communities, which is not good.
Thanks Joshua. And that is way too much to ask an individual focused only on November 3 to begin to comprehend.
There is some good news to report. Daily case numbers are still very high in the hot spots, but diminishing, as are hospitalizations. The worst is over in the hot spots. The next cluster of hot spots is the Midwest and rural areas like Idaho (it’s been perhaps the worst hot spot in the past 4 weeks, not only in America, but worldwide).
I’ve been speaking with people much smarter than I, who study seroprevalence and immunity. They’ve observed that after hot spots are hit hard, new cases of coronavirus are sporadic in those hot spots. You may recall I had a theory about this. Well, I’ve confirmed part of it with several epidemiologists and scientists. My latest on this is in Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/08/03/seroprevalence-studies-may-underestimate-immunity-to-the-coronavirus/#4762125214f9
Very interesting article. Thank you, Joshua, for continuing to share these. The T cell theory is fascinating. I would like to know more about studies with regard to those who are truly exposed yet do not get Covid. There is a ton to learn but with the world all focused on the same thing, we are moving along at what I think is a remarkable rate.
What I would like to know is why do those who “recover” from COVID still end up with continued health concerns? Red Sox P Eduardo Rodriguez now has a recurring heart ailment (inflammation) that could very well end his career and maybe even his life later on. That is very concerning AFAIC.
Agree. It is concerning. It’s the most difficult question to answer at this point: Why some people are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms, and others get very sick or have long-term effects.
There is some good news to report. Arizona peaked a couple of weeks ago, and is in gradual recovery mode. Still over 1,000 new cases daily, but hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing.
Florida data will look better today than it ought to, because of the hurricane. The storm closed most of the coastal testing sites. Still, hospitalizations there appear to be decreasing slightly.
California appears to have also peaked, with decreasing hospitalizations.
I still think that by tomorrow the deaths numbers will be quite high. But, I believe (and hope) that as a nation we peaked (in our `2nd’ wave) at around 1,475 deaths per day last week. I think (hope) we’ll stay under that this week.
The wildcard is the Midwest, parts of which were relatively unscathed from March to July, but are now being hit hard. We could see significant spikes there.
If `my’ theory holds up, however, once the coronavirus hits a region hard, it doesn’t appear to come back with nearly the same ferocity. It’s as if the virus picks off the weakest and most vulnerable in the hot spots. After that, those who get the virus tend to be mildly symptomatic.
Thanks for confirming that cellular immunity may play a role, which is something I have been wondering about for a while. I started my career as a bench biologist, and did proliferation assays which test for this kind of immunity.
The cross reactivity immunity concept is intriguing. As someone who’s has suffered through many colds, this is encouraging. Perhaps this will protect teachers as well, as they get every virus that comes down the pike until they have had them all…
Not a Covid-19 note, but the first human case of EEE in Massachusetts has been reported in Middleborough. It is a young person between the ages of 11-20.
Oh nooooooo. I’m so sorry to hear this
https://www.masslive.com/news/2020/07/fearing-surge-in-covid-cases-massachusetts-teachers-association-pushes-for-remote-learning-in-schools-for-2020-2021-school-year.html
Probably the best Covid-19 news in the last couple of days since early to mid June.
Good news in Massachusetts, as new daily cases were under 200 for the first time in a while. Also, test positivity is around 1.3%.
Nationally, positivity rate is down to 7.6%, which is still too high. But, we’re gradually improving. Hospitalizations continue downward trend. Still many hospitalized and in ICU. But, any downward trend is good news.
This tweet will get you caught up.
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1290415667103948800
I’m cautiously optimistic about the current hot spots. My concern is the Midwest. Hopefully, they will learn from what has happened in the South. If I were governor I would halt reopening there and enforce mask and physical distancing rules. Be strict now, you’ll avoid thousands of deaths (which have occurred in the South in July) later.
Dr. Birx said this yesterday: “This epidemic right now is different from March and April in that it’s more widespread and it’s both rural and urban.” She’s correct. That makes it more difficult to contain.
Trump said this today: “We are beginning to see evidence of significant progress nationwide. … An encouraging sign, very encouraging, I have to add, that the virus is receding.” He’s correct that there appears to be a hopeful trend of fewer new daily cases, and some (NOT significant) progress nationwide. The caveat is that we’re coming down from a tremendously high peak. But, he shouldn’t have added “the virus is receding.” It’s not. It’s dispersing more widely. It is less intense in certain hot spots, which is good, but spread out over a much greater number of communities, which is not good.
Thanks Joshua. And that is way too much to ask an individual focused only on November 3 to begin to comprehend.
Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner on rolling outbreaks (essentially saying what Birx said, but also including specific references to the Midwest and Northeast): https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/510242-former-fda-chief-predicts-second-waves-of-coronavirus
C-19 for 8-4 is up…