7:42AM
DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)
As far as “action” goes, this forecast is front-end-loaded. Today and this evening will be our impacts from Isaias. The thinking has not really changed since yesterday. While the system, according to NHC, returned to hurricane strength before making landfall in SC yesterday and moving up across the eastern Carolinas overnight, it has weakened to a tropical storm and will continue to slowly weaken while at the same time starting to undergo transition to a post-tropical system (or return to a cold core low pressure area) as it tracks north northeastward all the while accelerating. This track will take the center of the low across NJ, southeastern NY, and far western to northwestern New England during this evening. It’s known, but I will remind you, that the wind field around these systems tends to expand as the storm loses tropical characteristics. Another general rule of thumb is that the heaviest rainfall amounts occur west of the center with a more showery/windy eastern side of a northward-moving storm system. All these rules generally apply here. I think it’s important to note that the absolute strongest wind gust potential will be coming as what appears to be a single band of convective rainfall (downpours & possible thunder) sweeps across the region from southwest to northeast early this evening. Yes it will be breezy to windy before it and after it, but those convective cells are what can bring down your strongest winds to the surface, and therefore can be where you find the most significant pockets of wind damage. These systems also bring their own wind sheer along with them and those convective cells can easily rotate, sometimes enough to produce brief and (relatively) weak tornadoes. It goes without saying that even “weak” tornadoes can cause significant localized damage. So we will need to be on the watch for this. But as quickly as the maximum part of this event will be underway for us, it will be gone, and the overnight hours will feature less wind, but still a gusty breeze, and an opportunity to look at the stars and moon as the sky clears. With the low in eastern Canada and moving rapidly away on Wednesday, expect a rather nice summer day here on Wednesday. If there is any damage cleanup to be done it can proceed without any further weather issues. High pressure builds in, centered just to the north of the region, with a nice day, air temperature modified by an easterly wind flow, on Thursday. A frontal boundary not too far to the south will edge northward far enough on Friday for more cloudiness, and maybe a bit of South Coast shower activity. This may linger into early Saturday before high pressure wins the battle and clouds retreat for a nice start to the second weekend of August.
TODAY (THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON): Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers possible. Increasingly humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH except increasing to 15-25 MPH late afternoon, strongest South Coast.
MID AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING (ABOUT 3PM TO ABOUT 7PM): A band of showers, some heavy, and a risk of thunder, moving southwest to northeast across the region. Very humid. Temperatures cooling slightly to 70-77. Wind SE-SSW sustained 15-25 MPH interior and 25-35 MPH coast. Maximum wind gust potential generally 45-60 MPH, favoring coastal and higher elevations, but can occur in isolated locations interior with any heavier showers/storms.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty early, diminishing to 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 62-69. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87, but turning cooler in some coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of showers South Coast. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers South Coast. Lows 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Early clouds and a shower risk South Coast, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)
High pressure brings fair and warm weather August 9, then shifts to the south with an increase in humidity and a risk of showers/t-storms during the August 10-13 period, highest risk around August 12-13 with a frontal boundary in the region.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)
This looks like a mostly dry period with high pressure centered north of the region at first, keeping temperatures moderate, then high pressure shifting to the south later as upper level high pressure builds, increasing the chance of hotter weather returning.
Good morning and thank you TK.
Do you think that the tornado risk extends all the way
to the coast? NWS seems to think threat is mainly Worcester
area Westward.
I am going to make a few reposts. thanks
It will exist anywhere there is a significant enough convective cell. That is definitely possible all the way to the coast.
Thank you TK. I WILL always listen to you over
the NWS and SPC for that matter.
FROM SPC issued at: 5:53Z or 1:53 AM. Due to updated at
1300 Z or 9AM.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
JpDave
AUGUST 4, 2020 AT 7:32 AM
Latest tornado watch
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0416_radar_big.gif
Likelihood of tornadoes is HIGH
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0416.html
Thanks TK. FYI you mentioned “southeastern NH” as opposed to NY.
I know I caught that as I was leaving my house and we’ll edit it to fix shortly. Finger memory sometimes outweighs brain. 😉
Thanks TK.
Thank you TK
Several Tornado warnings in Delaware
JPD just getting up to speed after two hours sleep. Did I read a comment from you that we are in 5% tornado risk area?
Yes, please see above post from SPC.
Also, I posted a ton of stuff on previous blog.
Ahhh that’s where I saw …previous blog. Thanks.
WOW! Latest from SPC. Shows an area of NJ, SE NE and SW
CT in a 10% risk of tornadoes.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif
Yikes!
OMG
now see below!
The YUCK dew points are back!!
just adding fuel
Thanks TK
You don’t often see a 10% tornado chance in the northeast and that is what we have most of NJ, NY Metro Area, and lower Fairfield County in CT! So far the tornado watch is up for southern CT but I would not be surprised if another one issued for SNE.
From Ryan Hanrahan
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1290604804834811911
Thanks, TK!
Hatches battened.
Thanks TK !
I took in my deck furniture yesterday evening, got my battery powered radio ready, charged cell phone, and batteries in case the power goes out and with these wind gusts being forecasted that is a real possibility.
Meant to say and flashlights ready not and batteries.
First tornado warning of the day for a storm out of Berkshire county moving north into extreme western Hampshire and Franklin County.
Also a very suspicious cell in far northwestern Franklin county.
HRRR has been in back down mode the last couple runs.
Meaning discount it? I see that it shows practically zero
convection in Eastern SNE. Is that what you mean?
Western mass tornado warning
I just saw our first tornado warning of the day up in MA for northwestern Hampshire and northwestern Franklin county until 930am . It looks like were going to see more of these issued as we go through the day.
Thanks Tk
Well there’s a first. I usually can spot the rotation with my
RadarScope Storm Relative Mean Velocity display.
Do not see anything at all. I don’t get it. Is my display not
working or is it very subtle and I am not able to discern?
curious and thanks
It was a very slight signature. Please understand they are going to be on a fast as lightning trigger with these today. It will be for later work to determine the validity of each warning.
Many thanks for that explanation JMA. ALways appreciate
your input.
I suppose one other thing, these type of tornadoes
can be very brief.
Interesting day. Take care out there.
The tide guage on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge may have been hit by one of those tornadoes.
It shows a 75 mph gust, that’s very brief and is otherwise surrounded by lower gusts.
Simultaneously, there’s a pressure drop that is noticeable.
I’m working to copy the link.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8638901
If interested, scroll down a bit to the wind chart and pressure chart
75 knots was the gust = 86 mph
Very interesting. Great find. Will be interesting
if that is reported.
Thanks …….. We’ve been over that bridge/tunnel a few times, both ways, the past 5 years, so that’s why I was curious. Also, wanted to see storm surge and winds right at the water.
We went over it years back on our way to Chincoteague. It is quite a bridge/tunnel
It is ….. I’m not crazy about 17 miles over water, but it is beautiful.
I wasn’t sure if over or under was harder 😉
The Bay Bridge by Annapolis was more worrisome to me. I would not want to be on it in wind.
Haha 🙂
Once back and forth on way to and from
Virginia Beach. Pretty impressive bridge/tunnel
structure!
Nice Tom. Great find
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
THE spiral band coming into view of the Mt Holly, NJ radar.
Usually these tornadoes with these tropical systems are EF0 EF1 strength. They are brief but if it hits your area it will do damage.
A reason to be on the lookout here for tornadoes.
From Ryan Hanrahan.
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1290637825080266752
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
This shows what TK mentioned above that the tornado threat exists anywhere there is convection.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1290640083599740928?s=20
Will have to see if this moves over SNE this afternoon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2020/md1394.html
Likely your area. How far East? ahhh that is the question.
Ocean City, NJ looks to be getting rocked by this possible tornado.
https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1290646969933848577
Thank you, TK.
Models certainly project Isaias to rev its engines as it zips across Western New England. I realize the storm is catching a ride on the jet stream, but this time the jet stream’s a supercharged Corvette.
Here’s an article on the vital importance of weather in rural areas. The piece is on India and its dependence during the June to September monsoon on rain for agriculture. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-03/august-rains-hold-key-to-india-s-recovery-after-erratic-monsoon?
Hopefully, the rains return in August and September.
I wonder if reduced rain in this part of the world and a weak La Nina are related ????
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0PDsByFaylfOagAo0Fx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTByNXM5bzY5BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMzBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–/RV=2/RE=1596578822/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fw1.weather.gov%2fdata%2fobhistory%2fKWWD.html/RK=2/RS=ddMJqaPEoNyjDE9WjWktFBNKF8s-
Cape May, NJ. Sustained at 35, gusting to 48
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20202171401_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-2400×2400.jpg
We have hazy sun down here, with oppressive low-mid 70F dewpoints.
10 am temps running 80F to 84F, while our favorite Boston reporting location is 73F with a light east wind.
Logan is pathetic. No 73 here. That would be nice!
It is OPPRESSIVE here in warmth and humidity.
Sure is & wearing a mask working outside is brutal .
If I am not mistaken, it is the far Eastern band that would give
Eastern SNE any problems later today. I believe TK alluded
to this in his discussion.
https://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/DOX_loop.gif
Yup. Great radar loop !
With hardly any sun, I am showing 83 here with dp 75!!
Well, correction, some filtered sun
I just stepped outside. Big time STICKORAMA!!!
Video of tornado on the Jersey Shore
https://twitter.com/sudbri/status/1290647474416300032
Wow!! that did NOT look wimpy!
Goodness !
No that is definitely not a wimpy tornado.
Keep in mind that there is a perspective issue with some of these tornado videos. The cloud bases are literally a couple hundred feet up versus 1,000 ft or more for a more conventional tornado. This will make a tornado appear larger than it is. That tornado, while serious as any tornado is, was probably relatively very weak.
Perhaps so, but it sure looked impressive, It would scare the crap out of me if I saw it!
Yes. It was very imposing.
But it was also not a giant wedge tornado. Just keeping it in perspective.
So, is the current Northern extent of the tornado watches
IT from the SPC? OR will they issue a new watch
in the next 1-2 hours? I am guessing a new watch will be issued, but they are carefully monitoring the conditions, so who
knows.
I keep monitoring for a new mesoscale discussion. Just not happening yet.
The 11:00 a.m. advisory will show that the center is a little further to the west. It will also show a track that is just a tad further to the west. That may lessen the impact just a little bit, but that’s not enough of a shift to make me change what is written in my blog.
Tropical Storm Probabilities. You don’t see these high percentages here in New England often.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/091800.shtml?tswind120#contents
Except several times during the colder season with mid latitude cyclone passages. 🙂
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJ6yo6eylfUOsACTlx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTByNXM5bzY5BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMzBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–/RV=2/RE=1596582843/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fw1.weather.gov%2fdata%2fobhistory%2fKACY.html/RK=2/RS=_6T5Et9eTBiR6c3Org8f8EQQBwo-
Good thing that center will pass well west of us while continuing to weaken gradually.
Of course that location being right on the water definitely maximized their wind potential.
For sure on both counts !
Interesting looking small cell, that is severe warned ….. its just SE of NYC and moving NW
I don’t see any warnings out for that area currently.
?
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/okx.png
I read that as a marine warning for boating in the area.
Curious if there are any similarities with Isaias to Irene for this area? I know the track with Irene was further east and possibly pressure was stronger?
Irene was larger and stronger.
This while not identical is a little closer to Fay.
Thanks TK!
TK, what kind of condition do you think that spiral band will be in when it reaches eastern sections of southern New England ?
Also, if it comes thru slightly after max heating when eastern areas might still be in the low-mid 80s, will that have any effect one way or the other ? Thanks !!
Max heating won’t matter much.
This is more dynamics.
I think it will be a broken line of convection with isolated pockets of damaging wind gusts. The peak will be very short-lived.
Many thanks !!
OK, here we go. SPC mesoscale discussion with 95% change
of tornado watch issuance!!!
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1396.html
thanks JpDave !
They should definitely issue a tornado watch because tornadoes are definitely possible.
When should the south shore start feeling the wind & rain event .
that spiral band to our southwest is the one to watch for thunderstorm chances and wind gusts. And maybe some gusty W-SW winds for a bit after it passes thru later this afternoon.
Pretty much in the window that I wrote above. But whenever it arrives expect it to last less than 90 minutes.
Wow that’s fast so a pretty quiet night then for the most part . I’m unable to see any reports it’s my first day back .
No surprise that a new tornado watch will be issued for more of SNE.
Outside my window the wind is picking up a tad. If the forecast plays out the winds right now will calm compared to what is coming for a couple hours this afternoon.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
2nd spiral band …… thinner than first, lower cloud tops, but still pretty neat
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20202171606_GOES16-ABI-ne-GEOCOLOR-2400×2400.jpg
TK can verify, I also think this is transitioning to extra tropical as the cool dry air can be seen getting entrained into the western and southwestern part of the circulation .
And what happens when it gets up here, adding friction to the mix and high dew points etc etc.
Could get interesting.
Here is a photo taken in My wife’s cousins yard in JP
after Hurricane Gloria in 1985. I am convinced this was
caused by a very short-lived tornado as there really
wasn’t much wind blowing. Sort of like what Tom posted
for the Chesapeake bay/bridge. If I recall, the trees down
at the end of the property were in the opposite direction.
I wish I had called the NWS because it was never looked
at and chaulked up as hurricane damage. Oh well.
Here is the photo. My son and daughter are in the back and left.
https://imgur.com/a/ujJOiib
that roof you see is my wife’s cousine garage or what’s left of it.
Look at the top of the garage !! And it probably wasn’t consistent with the damage in the area around it ??
Nope. no damage in the neighborhood except in this one rather large yard. Spared the house though.
thank goodness !
Another important thing to keep in mind…
I keep hearing about the number of tornado warnings for this system being extraordinarily high. Of course it’s going to be high for a system that basically rides the entire coastline versus one that comes straight in. Perspective.
Makes sense 🙂
Although I guess we could get some thunder with this storm, why are there not so many thunderstorms with this system?
Hi Rainshine !
Regarding your thunderstorm question, do you mean in our area or around the storm itself ?
Basically the storm itself. I do see some severe thunderstorms showing up here and there on doppler radar but not as many as I would expect. And maybe wondering if we’d get some in our area, too.
Breeze has picked up here now and clouds sure are moving fast!
NW Connecticut into far western Mass has had some cells develop quickly in the last 10 minutes.
Did they ever. Pretty impressive. I do not see rotation, but that can change quickly.
those cells are ´dancing´ on radar and flying northwest.
Wonder what is taking the SPC so long on that potential
watch? Just waiting to see how things develop???
They did say 95%, which means 5% chance they do not issue it.
I’d wager they still issue it. Just waiting.
lunch break 🙂 🙂
Clouds to my south are towering.
Just got a message saying tornado watch is posted for Worcester county
Tornado Watch up until 9pm
Key points from SPC
A few tornadoes possible
Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 80 mph possible
Just got the warning on my devices.
there it is JpDave !
yup was eating lunch.
Wind just gusted to 60 mph at both JFK and LGA NY per Ryan Hanrahan.
NYC 30 min ago…
https://twitter.com/SamChampion/status/1290685717992083458?s=20
Secure your deck furniture and trampolines (Vicki 🙂 )
Ugh. We have done best we can with trampoline. We did move or secure all furniture this am. Did you do the same?
The storm is definitely taking a more inland track and its “center” will be west of Albany as opposed to western MA. This is what I was talking about last week when I was referring to the ECMWF and it not handling timing of Sunday’s front, the west north west flow and dry air intrusion to the north yesterday, it’s creating of a false Great Lakes trough, and not recognizing the the position and strength of high pressure in the SW Atlantic, and why it strengthing to a Cat 2. coming up through Narragansett Bay as a Cat 1 never seemed quite right even though that track was modeled at times late last week.
Excellent point above by TK. Much different scenario here woth warnings with a storm coming ashore and then racing north through high population areas of DC PHL NYC etc., compared to slowly coming ashore from the ESE to WNW and continuing to travel along that trajectory as it slowly rains itself out into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1290705371993182209/photo/1
For those interested, here is the actual tornado watch
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0417.html
a small cell just crossed the western part of Long Island Sound, intensifying and now is tornado warned in southwest CT
that’s 2 tornado warned cells for which I could see NO
signs of rotation. Just not showing on my radarscope
storm relatibe mean velocity display?????
Winds picking up here now.
Also, don’t look now but our 8:00 pm sunsets (7:59) are gone for another year as of today.
I can’t get imgur to work so you’re going to have to take my word that the latest HRRR has a 59 mph wind gust over Taunton at 8 pm.
You mean this 51 knot gust which equates to 58.7 mph?
https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2020080416/NE/HRRRNE_sfc_gust_008.png
don’t need imgur. Right click on image and select open in new tab and then copy that url and paste here.
That’s the one, Dave. Thanks.
I woke some mild cold symptoms and was going to go get a test after my telemedicine appt at 2:30. Is going from Harvard to Westford this afternoon a bad idea? We are a multi-gen home so of course I’m panicked about my m-I-l and her safety.
It’s so funny how the pandemic now has me panicking bc of a scratchy throat – what a time!
I am so sorry. Honestly, I would wait until tomorrow. but
you best listen to TK, JMA, SAK or WxWatcher on that one.
Tornado Warning for Ashburnham in Middlesex County
Well I can actually see the rotation on this one, but doesn’t
seem to be particulary strong/sharp rotation to me??????
Perhaps one of the pros here can chime in.
https://imgur.com/a/eIwEy9x
Both the tornado warned storm in CT and in MA are moving at a fast clip.
yes look at this from the CT one?
At 156 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Danbury, moving northwest at 75 mph.
Yup – I’m staying home
I think a good idea. Please feel better quickly.
Thank you Vicki! I’m sure it’s nothing but we must be vigilant!!! Happy happy bday to Mac today!! ❤️❤️
NWS out of Upton NY issuing a tornado warning for southern Middlesex County in CT. The storm is offshore of eastern Long Island but Upton feels it will come ashore there and make it into that part of CT.
The wind is really picking up where I am.
Video of at the very least a funnel loud of the tornado warned storm in Fairfield County CT as it is coming onshore.
https://twitter.com/ScottPecoriello/status/1290707957823475717
Thanks, JJ. There you go
Based on the latest NHC track, the center will just barely scrape NW VT. Do I daresay an “almost” non-event for east central/eastern NE?
It will be interesting what the 6-9 pm timeframe will look like as far severe wx around here.
Still getting windy but brightening up a bit. Was darkening earlier.
It is like a wind tunnel outside my window and getting some of those tropical downpours. I lost power briefly but it is back.
MamaMia, Take care. I understand your apprehension, as you live in a multi-generational home. This said, it’s probably a cold or allergies. Once the storm passes, you can get tested, hopefully with a quick turnaround.
Yup – brain swirl 2 tomorrow! I’m sure it’s nothing but vigilance is key!! Thanks for good wishes!!
Sun now peaking through.
Tornado Warning through Hartford north to the Massachusetts border.
Really getting wild here in Manchester CT. Wind roaring and raining horizontally. A large branch just came down here at the office and power is flickering.
The band is right over you now. Stay safe.
Mama Mia just an FYI. I also awoke today with scratchy throat & headache (sinus based) identical to the symptoms I always get when there is a combo grass pollen spike / early weed pollen / and a mold spore spike due to humidity. This is 99% likely to be allergy related for both of us.
Hope that’s all it is, Mama Mia and TK. Please stay well.
Possibly my favorite Info post of all! Thanks TK – I’m sure it is and just want an all clear in hand by Thur 🙂
And ty Cap!!
Marine Warning for a storm just about ready to come onshore on the Rhode Island booking it at 55 knots!
*coast
Check that…New London
I have noticed that on most of these tornado warned cells,
I cannot see rotation from my radial velocity display on
my RadarScope mobile App.
I looked back at JMA’s post from earlier and given today’s conditions, it make sense.
JMA
AUGUST 4, 2020 AT 9:17 AM
It was a very slight signature. Please understand they are going to be on a fast as lightning trigger with these today. It will be for later work to determine the validity of each warning.
i wonder how many, if any, of today’s warnings were false
alarms? We’ll know after the areas are investigated.
I’m seeing damage from a couple of these area. Could be straight line. I’m surely hoping no one has a problem with NWS being cautious if rotation is suspected with the speed of These cells.
There are trees down and im hearing a possible roof off With the Hartford area warning
I was able to see the rotation on some, but on others, nope.
135,000 Eversource customers without power now in CT. 11% of the state.
Getting quite windy here. If it were not rainy I’d sit out a bit
Mama, ditto to what TK said. I had a sore throat and a bit of a runny nose yesterday.
Same deal with a co-worker of mine. Pretty sure it is just allergies.
Me too
Quite windy here as I was just out returning trash barrels.
My estimate gusts 25-30 mph. Now let me look up logan and see.
hmmm, Logan ESE wind at 17 mph. Gusts here were certainly more than 17 mph! My estimate stands.
I can hear the wind from in the house.
Trees and power lines down everywhere here in CT. Just heard a tree is down across I-84 in West Hartford blocking the interstate.
YIKES! Pretty impressive!
I am thinking action, if any, for Boston will be around 6PM
give or take. So far ZILCH here in the city.
84, dp 74 here. YUCK!!
This is right around the corner from our house….
https://imgur.com/arSCMVk
Our house has power but much of the area around us is out.
Wow!
As the wind roars, seeing frequent patches of blue sky mixed in now. Pretty wild.
We have gotten so little rain out of this it is hilarious.
Just took a video as that last band came through. Hopefully this works…
https://vimeo.com/444660273
Thanks Mark. A real gully washer there. Best get out the boats. 🙂
nice !
I saw a 53 mph wind gust at Groton, CT not long ago.
that is a larger cell coming ashore in southwest RI
That is OR there is?
This one?
https://imgur.com/a/1ARyP6h
yes, thanks ! It is lined up to go through Burlingame State Park where we camped last week.
40 frames from Nexrad Radar
https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?num=40&type=N0R&mapx=400&mapy=240&brand=wui&delay=15&frame=0&scale=0.4652173913043478&transx=2.1495327102803685&transy=-66.63551401869165&severe=0&smooth=0¢erx=402.14953271028037¢ery=173.36448598130835&station=BOX&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&noclutter=0&showlabels=1&showstorms=0&rand=26609509
thanks !
Stormed warned into Buzzards Bay
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=special%20marine%20warning
while the echoes continue north-northwest, it feels like with Isaias passing our latitude, thst the band is translating a bit more quickly eastward.
Yes. This thing is flying. We’ll be all done in Boston shortly
after 6PM if not earlier the way this is going.
I think that cell may end up visiting Boston
Maybe, please see my post below…thanks
And there goes the power in the office.
Can you go home! Can’t work without power. 🙂
Yep, Going to relocate back there!
Power outages in CT have shot up to 260,000.
Yikes
Power out
wow Vicki and Mark
Sun has been coming out off and on here in Sudbury. Gusts of wind approx. 30 mph but not too bad – yet. Clouds still racing south to north. Hope you feel better Mama Mia. Probably allergy.
I’m sure it is! But thank you so much!
The first thing I thought of yesterday was vivid too. Just natural
I am thinking that the cell in Southern RI, is Boston’s only hope for rain and it may pass to the West of the city. Will be watching.
All other cells to the South, likely to pass to the East of the
city. Boston may get caught in the middle and score a big
fat GOOSE EGG! We shall see.
its never going to rain again in eastern Mass !! 🙂 🙂
Tis my fear for today. My lawn is looking sick!
I hear you …. I cant walk on mine without shoes, the blades are sharp !
Now the third largest outage event in Con Ed history behind Sandy and Irene…
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1290737315200086016?s=21
Yikes
60 mph wind gust at Waterbury/Oxford
Same gust at Bridgeport/Sikorsky.
Cell in Southern almost central RI now, seems to be intensifying.
Also, I do believe that I am seeing some early signs of broad
rotation. Now I may be reading something into this, but it
does look interesting.
Big gust of wind here.
Logan gusting to 35 mph
Seems about right.
picking up here too last 30 minutes. At least in Marshfield, its been kind of a yawner of a weather day. Probably just guaranteed the town a tornado.
From one of the cells that will pass South and East
of the City. Watching that RI cell closely.
Agreed !
Watching this area within the storm system in Southern RI
https://imgur.com/a/At9WB4K
Some early signs of rotation?
That’s the band that means business. Peak winds in eastern Mass in the next few hours when that pivots through.
I agree JpDave that it looks like that area is intensifying. Also, close by cells just to the northwest near Willimantic, CT
I want to see what the radial velocity display looks like as
the cell passes the taunton radar’s latitude.
Hamden CT…
https://twitter.com/emtomology/status/1290738407535185922?s=21
Boy does that suck!
Ah crap, that is through their house! Horrible!
I forgot to mention (though it’s a moot point now) that earlier I made an edit to my original post from earlier this morning to indicate slightly faster timing of the band and top of the wind gust potential at about 60 MPH (for most vulnerable areas).
As I watch the RI cell, I am thinking more and more
like it will plow into Boston. We shall see.
Whatever signs of rotation there may or may not have been, they appear to be gone now.
The risk of tornadoes is probably dropping off very gradually as that thing drifts a little further east.
Small cell just popped near Norwood. Not sure what it will do, if anything.
I lost power at my place. As I drove over to come over to my mom saw a lot of trees and power lines down in town.
Now not much question. Rain due in Boston momentarily. ABout to close the windows. 🙂
If my eyes aren’t deceiving me, our final threat in the form of a well organized band to the southwest of the city has a north to south vertical orientation which could result in training downpours and storms eastern most sections prolonging the short lived event in some locations.
hey arod. Nice to see you here. Hope you and the family are well.
And agree. A bit of training, but it is progressing Eastward
so quickly it won’t last too long.
Thanks JPDave. All is well. Hope you and MrsOS have been able to stay cool. Let’s hope this final band produces some water!
We have 2 cool rooms and making do. Thank you.
Watch out metro Boston….incoming!!!
Joke!!!!
Rain is here. Shut windows just in time, but now it is a sauna
in the house.
Timing on this ended up about 2 hours ahead of what I thought at this time yesterday.
It’s flying.
Just want my grass blades to get a sip of water!
ditto.
After a brief let up, wind absolutely ripping again here.
N Kingston, RI wind gust to 61 mph.
temp 80, dp 74 with 0.03 inch of rain so far today.
Latest radar. So far no Shenannigans!
https://imgur.com/a/GxBCkUM
Oh and btw, no lightning showing on my lightning display.
Line is thinning.
Whole thing is wimping out. There’s a big surprise.
Is that it for rain here? Generators can’t get wet so would be nice.
I believe so.
Awesome. Thank you Generators are for two refrigerators only. Too muc in freezer
Sun is out now. Quick clearing behind that line.
Geez as soon as I sent that just got a Tornado Warning on my phone.
https://twitter.com/TerryWBZ/status/1290756197788848130?s=20
Greetings from my basement! Waiting for the all clear from Harvard.
You’re good now.
Thanks TK – we are headed back upstairs now 🙂
Do you think anything touched down in Shirley?
I doubt it. But we’ll see if any damage occurred and go from there.
Whoa. Didn’t see that. Glad all is ok
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1290760616051986433?s=21
From Son in Cumberland RI. You can here first tree top break just before he pans left. Then when he pans right you can see second fall behind trees
https://imgur.com/a/9yAD9hM
Nice !
Rain so far: .000000000000none
The drive home from work was like a war zone. Trees and large branches down everywhere. Had to detour around a large tree completely blocking Rte 44. Every traffic signal I went through was out except for the one at the bottom of the hill near my house.
Cant believe we still have power here at the house. I lost the top half of a large tree and have another large branch down on the edge of my lawn.
My peak rainfall rate & wind so far is occurring as the sky clears just to my west. I love this very much. 🙂
It was pretty cool to see that clearing so quick.
Hartford….
Brett Edgerton
@EditorEdge
1h
Never seen anything like this in 15 years living in CT. The winds are wild. Unfortunately many huge, ancient trees in the park across the street here in Hartford are tumbling down.
Turn the sound up and watch the end of this video. Very sad.
https://twitter.com/EditorEdge/status/1290746106054356994?s=20
Connecticut got a pretty decent event today.
It showered and best wind gusts of the day.
Just as the rain ended & sun came out a good gust came through here and took down a very large section of one of our Norway Maples. The tree is slowly dying anyway and needs to come down (sooner rather than later now). Thankfully other than lawn dents, no damage to house or wires.
Irony: This is the second time a large section of that tree has fallen within 2 days after I mow the lawn and have a great looking yard. 😉
Rte 44 in Coventry on my drive home…
https://imgur.com/D3mCYDx
My yard:
https://imgur.com/yVNfr2b
Not sure what the hell I am going to do with that!
And in the rain gauge, a whopping 0.14″!
I would gladly have taken the easterly track with this storm and gotten the slug of rain that eastern NY received without the damaging winds.
Speaking of the rain, flash flood warnings everywhere in eastern NY. Reports of up to 6″ now in the Catskills.
Is that it you got to be kidding me . Sun is shinning with barely a breeze
Were you expecting something other than what I told you we’d have? 😉
Peak wind gusts from Norton….62mph at Westfield
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
The wind is still gusting where I am but no where near what it was a couple hours ago. At least the weather will be nice for cleanup tomorrow.
You lucked out John! It’s complete carnage down here. 375,000 without power now in CT.
I’ll have to admit I was sort of poo poo’ing this event…this was much worse than I expected In terms of tree damage and power outages. Definitely the worst since Irene and the Oct 2011 snowstorm in this area.
Hope your property is fine Mark . In Hanover the power went out during my physical therapy session lol he kept me .
Mark I would agree this is the worst in CT since Irene and the October Nor’easter. When I was driving around my town saw a lot of trees power lines down.
520,000 now without power. That’s pretty much 1/3 of the state without power.!
Ct got hit hard. here in jp big woof.
0 23 inch rain.
Kids and I sat on deck for a while. Lots of breaking trees in the woods behind. A huge one fiend at end of street which is why our power is out. Refrigerators both on with generator. Not normally a concern but way too much in freezers to lose.
I would think this storm will rank in the top 10 in power outages for CT.
Power out in areas around me in Pembroke, Hanson, and Kingston. I am in my office in Plymouth and pretty sure we are running on generator but haven’t gone out to check yet.
Power on this end of town .
Amazing what a breeze can do.
Please be safe Sue. Nasty conditions to be working in.
Looks like Albany and Troy have gotten a nice drink of water, and likewise the area where Mark’s Mom lives.
Back Bay got a bit more than a trace, but that’s it. Even the ducks were quacking “that’s it!” as they waddled around the Public Garden, clearly disappointed.
I feel badly for those who lost power. Looks like many in Connecticut did. That’s especially tough now when so many are working at home or doing staycations.
Both the high and low temperature in Canada were notable today. A town in British Columbia got into the mid 90s (34.7C). That’s warm for any place in BC. And, for the first time since mid June a settlement in Nunavut failed to make it above freezing (-0.1C to be exact). https://weather.gc.ca/canada_e.html
Isaisis still a tropical storm now as it crosses northern VT. Don’t see that too often…
https://twitter.com/bvitale/status/1290799114779754498?s=21
Totally botched the spelling…glad this storm is out of here!
Well I guess this storm lived up to what was forecast, and didn’t underperform. Running on generator here. I ended up with .40” in the rain bucket. Lots of small sized branches down but for luckily for me no large trees down that I have to tend to.
There’s plenty of reports of trees down and power out, especially across CT, but overall, this storm was tame around here compared to what we get during plenty of Nor’easters in the Fall/Winter/Spring. Because it had a name though, the hype was off the charts. When (not if) we get a real hurricane up here, much of the region will not be prepared for it. It’s been 29 years since Bob, and while Bob hit the Cape and southern RI hard, much of the region was spared from real damage. Ditto for Gloria, when the next Donna or Carol comes calling (and make no mistake, it will at some point), people will not know what to do. Damage will be in the hundreds of billions and power will be out for weeks in places. People won’t take the forecasts seriously because of the hype for a storm like this that did relatively little. Storms like this should be a wake-up call, but sadly, they won’t be for most people.
I agree 100%.
I recall Dave Vallee mentioning this very point as well at some of the conferences.
Not sure I agree. I didn’t see hype. I see power outages which have some to do with power of the storm. More to do with big business.
For four decades Mac and I worked for and met at a company that created and provided test equipment for 98% of electric utilities in North America. We kept records and had yearly conferences for utilities worldwide. They were to avoid outages etc.
Then the utilities started to move the bottom line and outsource for inferior test equipment, regular maintenance was pushed off weeks, months, years. Saves a buck ya know.
In truth whatever you see as hype..,, a word I am not a fan of….is needed. Until big business starts to put its customer first, we will need to prepare now far more than we have in the past.
I appreciate any outlet that gave us forewarning
God for bid we ever get a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane direct hit here in CT. This tropical storm, with its max wind gusts just over 60 mph, has 40% of the state out of power. We have had many coastal storms like this in the fall and winter that haven’t done nearly the damage that this has. Big difference getting a storm like this in the summer with fully leafed out trees. And the tree carnage would have been even worse if we had gotten any significant rain along with the winds.
According to Ryan Hanrahan Isaias is the fifth biggest power outage from a storm in CT history. 2011 October Nor’easter #1 Irene #2 Gloria #3 and Sandy #4.
And a big part of the reason is stressing older trees in a rainfall deficit.
You are right and part of my previous comment They used to be cleared. See above. It’s a whole lot more. Look around and count double poles. In framingham area there are tons. Double poles are supposed to a temporary fix. Now they just remain.
Mount Washington’s peak wind gust of 147 MPH is a new record for the month of August.
Funny to hear Jim Cantore’s voice still announcing that a tropical storm warning is in effect in the local forecast voice-over on TWC. I think this is the first time I’ve turned this channel on in months… 😉
“We’ll still be having strong gusty winds on the Cape & Islands overnight…” (While the graphic they are showing indicates top winds of 10-15 MPH.) 😉
674,000 without power now in CT! I believe we have now surpassed Sandy and are closing in on Irene. May be days before some have their power back.
And sadly one death now reported in Naugatuck as a man was crushed by a falling tree.
Official Mac wind gust reported in the State was 68 mph at Bridgeport
*Max
I was out walking with my son and we were specifically avoiding trees, even though our top wind gusts were only around 35 at the time.
New weather post is up…