37 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

1. TK, thank you, especially for the possible 70.

   1. Someone will hit it Monday or Tuesday. Anyone wanna guess as to which cities and towns do it?

      1. Fitchburg area along route 2 will hit the 70 mark.

         1. Framingham.

            1. Somewhere in the Merrimack Valley…….Lowell…..and somewhere just southwest of Boston….Norwood. I hope my geography is correct in the towns I picked for each general location.

      2. South central NH; central CT; possibly southwestern MA.

2. I will guess Boston hits 70.

   1. Unfortunately, no…sea breeze along the coast. 🙁

   2. If Boston hits 70 it will be Monday.

3. TK, you forgot to set your computer clock one hour back. 🙂

   1. Odd I’m surprised it didn’t auto set

   2. It was supposed to auto-set…fixing it now

4. CPC continues with the very warm regime through “November” 20th just a few days before Thanksgiving now…cold regime delayed until early December or even beyond?

   What does an “above normal” November bring?…Or does the “snowy” October tell all?

   1. Hi Philip.

      I dont know if there’s a correlation btwn Nov temps. or snow in October and the rest of the winter……

      I see snowpack being built in the mountainous US west….I see a very warm eastern half of Canada (its 32F this morning in Churchill, Canada) ……the NAO has been neutral or positive for almost 3 straight months now and with the exception of the recent snowstorm, there have been a lot of east coast ridges this autumn. I just get the feeling things are settling in towards a cold, stormy west and a mild east for the winter.

   2. Indeed.

      The GFS had colder air moving in, only to have it disappear on subsequent
      runs. I guess that patience is the operative word here. In the meantime
      it sure looks MILD for quite awhile.

5. Now that we are back to “Standard” Time, we are already now inundated with Christmas-related commercials and WODS-FM 103.3 ready to play Christmas music perhaps later this week…from what I understand listeners have been pestering the station demanding to start playing since late October. I hate this rushing of the holiday seasons. I have decided to stop listening to WODS completely once the Christmas music starts playing until I start my own decorating around mid-December.

   Back in my day, Christmas wouldn’t even start to get going until sometime between Veteran’s Day and Thanksgiving…I know, times have changed (eyes rolling).

   Can you imagine humming “Frosty The Snowman” while raking leaves wearing a light jacket? >:-(

   1. Philip I am a huge Christmas person – I can’t even begin to describe how huge. One of the many reasons I like it so much is that it has a specialness of its own. I don’t mind that stores put up decorations because I can ignore them. I love oldies but I do mind that they start playing Christmas music now? Really, they are now talking next week??? And I won’t listen. If you have something all of the time, it takes away the specialness.

      Wow – that was rambling at its best – hope someone can follow it 🙂

      Come time to put away the Thanksgiving dishes, however, all bets are off. Christmas officially begins in my house 🙂

6. I have said I don’t think snowfall this season will be that impressive. I went with 43 inches and am sticking to it since I don’t care if I am wrong.

7. That long range GFS is very interesting, Canada is getting very cold. The cold regime should happen by the start of December, and you will all notice how different it will be.
   Until then, above average temperatures are with us.

   1. I’m still not relying on the GFS to tell me when the regime change is coming. According to the GFS, the regime change would have happened about 15 times already since mid October. 🙂

      The Euro will be the model to look for this on. And what a coincidence the subject has come up today! (See below…)

8. For those keeping track of the Almanac way off to start November but I do give them credit for predictiong the Noreaster at the end of October when calling for turning very stormy along the Atlantic seaboard. I don’t buy the 85% accuraccy they claim. Its more like 20-25% to me and I think when they are right they are lucky. Will see if they right about there big storm for the winter between February 20th-23rd.

   1. I’ll take the Euro over the OFA. 🙂

9. And speaking of the Euro, the past 2 runs have shown me the very first hints of regime changing. Very early signs.

   1. WHW, what are the hints that you saw on the Euro?

      1. First hints are toward the end of the period we see: a trough axis slightly further east, short waves not dropping southward into a deep hole in the Southwest, a little stronger northern jet with progressive shortwaves trying to carve mean trough position a little further east, and slightly weaker SE ridge. If this showed up on the GFS only, I wouldn’t pay attention to it.

10. Tornado watch out in OK; KS and I think parts of TX as well as MO, including Joplin. There is a line of severe weather in that area now – even a tornado warning. I could be wrong, but I think Nov. is a month that seems to produce tornadoes in the fall/winter season. I’m not sure why. I recall a tornado watch around here sometime in 2000 or 2001 in Nov.

    1. Rain shine there was one in nov and I’m thinking 2007. I dont know about earlier years Mac and i were in Cape Elizabeth ME and my oldest was pregnant and had to go to hospital for a minor blip. I would have forgotten that is you hadn’t mentioned it

       1. Vicki, you are right. I think there was one in 2007. I was working in Wellesley at the time. By the way – is Mac your husband? My husband’s name is Marc – almost the same name as yours if that’s his name! 🙂 Mac – Marc! 🙂

          1. Mac is my husband. And I work with man whose office is in wellesley. 🙂

    2. If you look at a data-rich plot of tornado and especially severe thunderstorm activity there is a small peak around November. It’s a small version of the contrasts we see in the Spring. Instead of the first real warm air battling the lingering winter, it’s the first shots of genuine cold air battling the lingering warmth of the summer. Even here in New England, as you mentioned, we have seen severe weather in November. I recall a November at the end of the 1980s in which there were 2 tornado watches just days apart.

    3. There was also when that was issued in November on Saturday in 2008.

    4. Poor Oklahoma…..earthquakes, tornadoes……..intense heat this past summer.

11. Thanks, TK and JimmyJames!

12. Speaking of severe weather and tornadoes I remember back in December 2006 see a tornado warning issued for the northwestern parts of CT. I was surprised to see that when I was reading the discussion on the NWS statement out of Albany, NY. Once that front passed that Friday night it turned colder and a coastal storm ended up missing SNE that Monday. The winter of 06-07 was not a good one if you were a snowlover.

13. On that system southeast of the Carolinas…..almost can see the higher cirrus clouds starting to fan out to the north of the system. Looks like some outflow that one might see in a tropical system. I can only imagine though how much cool, dry air must be being wrapped into the system.

14. I think this (non-tropical) storm may make the end of week storm a little bigger.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    I thought I saw it, on some TV met map, sliding OTS well off NE, but still close enough to affect our weather.

    1. I think the effect it may have is one that actually lessens the amount of rain in most of the region, with the possible exception of CC & The Islands.

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