Wednesday August 5 2020 Forecast

68 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

The impact from TS Isaias speaks for itself today in the power outages and damage (mainly downed trees and tree limbs) to clean up. Largely, the system behaved about as expected, with top wind gusts in the expected range. A good deal of the strongest wind not only came with the main convective line that passed through late in the day, but after it as well, as the storm was rapidly transitioning to post tropical, which expands its wind field. But in terms of sensible weather, that is now beyond us, and we look ahead. Today will be a warm and somewhat humid day and a weak trough moving through from the west may set off a shower or 2, but look for a generally rain-free day. High pressure builds in Thursday, centered north of the region it will provide a broad onshore flow and comfortable air. This high retreats as a low pressure disturbance passes south of the region Friday, but close enough to bring cloudiness and a shower threat. I’ve expected this shower threat to favor the South Coast region, but looking things over this morning make me believe the high may retreat enough that at least a minor shower threat exists anywhere in the region. This will be pushed back out of here Saturday as the high pressure area drifts back to the south, though it may take some time, and even as it dries out, we may set up some sea breeze convergence enough to pop a few afternoon showers on Saturday. High pressure will be in firm control with great August weather on Sunday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a passing shower. Moderately humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 62-69. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming NE-E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-67. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, favoring the South Coast. Lows 61-68. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds and a shower risk South Coast, otherwise partly to mostly sunny but the slight risk of a pop up afternoon shower favoring southern and eastern areas. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

High pressure shifts to the south with an increase in humidity and a risk of showers/t-storms during the August 10-13 period, highest risk around August 12-13 with a frontal boundary in the region. High pressure builds in with drier weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

A warm front may push through early in the period with cloudiness and perhaps a shower as high pressure retreats to the northeast. Look for a flat ridge of high pressure mainly south of the region and a jet stream to the north which would be a warm to hot pattern with mainly dry weather here. Will have to watch a frontal boundary to the north.

68 thoughts on “Wednesday August 5 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you
    Power still out but I hear chain saws so suspect it will be on soon enough.

  3. 0.23 inch of rain yesterday all in the last band to come through. A little wind with that band and some after it. No great shakes. As close by as Northeastern U., gust to 61. Not here that I could tell.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Over 700,000 without power in CT and one death from a falling tree. Only past storms with more outages were Irene and the October Snowstorm in 2011.

    1. It’s a war zone around here, trees and branches down everywhere. Several roads blocked. We were lucky not to lose power at the house but have no phone/internet.

      My yard is littered with branches and I have got this mess to deal with…

      https://imgur.com/yVNfr2b

  10. Thanks Tk . I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’m looking forward to getting the humid days out of here as I’m struggling. Wearing a mask outside doing what I do its taking a toll on me it’s slowing me down as I just get so hot with it on & then add warm temps on top it’s hard .

    1. Non weather my sons school went all in 5 days a week giving you the option to do remote . Absolutely irresponsible in my opinion

        1. As long as the in home option equals the in school curriculum. Some schools will outsource in home so kids don’t have town teachers. I’m also hearing the funding may be less for in home. MAY.

          1. It would be live from the classroom no outsourcing. Regardless it’s a poor decision by any school to do in school teaching right now it’s not 100% safe & they will fail & go all remote in no time guaranteed. The virtual classroom would be no different then what he did . Feeling very frustrated & I may just let him make the decision .

  11. Its not torrid, but its not cool and dry, as might be more likely when a tropical storm passes by later in the hurricane season.

    I hope those sensitive to the heat and moderate humidity are doing ok today without AC (power).

  12. Look at the Boston Buoy Water temperature.
    It was 58 this morning!! now recovered to 61

    That strong wind blew away all of that nice warm surface water and brought up the colder water from below.
    Upwelling.

    What is upwelling? – NOAA’s National Ocean Serviceoceanservice.noaa.gov › facts › upwelling
    Apr 9, 2020 – Upwelling is a process in which deep, cold water rises toward the surface. This graphic shows how displaced surface waters are replaced by cold, nutrient-rich water that “wells up” from below.

  13. Looking at Eric Fisher´s twitter feed ….

    Colorado State updated their tropical season outlook:

    15 more named students, 10 of those will be hurricanes, of which 5 are predicted to be major (Cat 3 or stronger)

    1. students = storms

      I have school on the brain as I just completed an hour zoom with my sixth grade math team.

        1. Yeah, I have mixed feelings on the weather communities takes on the NHC.

          Certainly, some of the early season storms, the data showed 1 of more to be cold core, another was near the SC coast, that just could have been the gusty winds thunderstorms produce.

          So, yes, I think its very fair and reasonable to disagree that everything named has been tropical and deserved of classification.

          On the flip side, out in the weather community, for me, I´ve seen the criticism taken to a level that I think crosses a line. Relating storm naming to an agenda, comparing the NHC now to decades past.

          The tools the NHC has at its disposal now are vastly improved over what was available 30 to 40 years ago. Satellite can see circulations and storm structures now that they could not see back then.

          Also, the complexities of the insurance world. Can something that is warned allow for an insurance claim to be acted upon vs something that is not?

          So, yeah, the NHC has done some questionable so far this year, but I don´t think they have lost their marbles down there by any means.

            1. I have the best in-laws, I really have always thought I have had 4 parents the past 20 years. Along with my kids, I call my mother-in-law Nana. We have had a laugh that this storm is going to be the strongest of the bunch !!

  14. Thanks, TK…
    Great job yesterday, everyone!!!

    87 here now as I head out to put the yard back together. Only .20″ of rain in a late-afternoon squall.

    Here’s hoping power is restored everywhere soon.
    Mama Mia and TK, hope you’re feeling better and that your illnesses are nothing more than allergies!

    Tom, can I ask? What’s Marshfield’s plan to go back? Hybrid? Middleborough is planning on a hybrid start around September 15. Many districts that I am reading about are. Our union has formal negotiations with the town Friday morning. Taunton school are all remote to start the year.

    1. Hi Captain, it’s not official, but I think hybrid. I’ve been hearing the 2-1-2 model, with block scheduling perhaps for the middle school (90 vs 42 minute classes). I believe our union is bargaining with our leadership team. We’ll see 🙂

      I actually just finished a 1 hr math zoom and we came up with a basic structure for how to start the school year in 6th grade math.

      1. 2-1-2 is Sutton’s hybrid. Captain….you will offer all in home? Sutton has had meetings this week to review the initial plans. Questionnaires went out yesterday although a lot in Sutton are still without power

        We did get ours back at noon

  15. According to Eric, the tropics are expected to be quiet for the next 2 weeks. Of course we are still nowhere near peak hurricane season.

    As SAK has mentioned here, we are due for a bad one eventually.

  16. I am really not sure I understand our high school’s plan, but A-L will be in one cohort and M-Z will be the other. One cohort will go in two days a week and other three. They will reverse the following week. STEM classes will meet on one day and Humanities will meet the next day.

    So, as a Spanish teacher, I will be remote six out of the 10 days in a two-week cycle. I am not sure if I will be required to actually be in school the six days I am remote.

  17. Oh, by the way, 11 storms till Vicky.

    I hope you will forgive me, Vicki, if I hope we don’t get that far.

  18. I have to admit that a “guilty pleasure” has been listening to everybody trying to pronounce “Isaias” and for the most part butchering it. 😉

    My favorite came today from a WBZ radio news anchor:
    “Eeya, Eeahs” I am pretty certain the people in the lane next to me at the red light were thinking I’d gone and lost it…. 😀 😀 😀

    1. P.S. … For whatever reason, I have never had issues with names like this. Hear once, learn, don’t forget how to pronounce, until I forget what name we’re actually on (though I didn’t this time haha).

  19. A few ideas on the pattern mostly similar to and a few tweaks from my post earlier…

    Today’s sky is almost hazy. We almost never have haze anymore. It looks like 1982 out there. 😉

    Friday looks a touch wetter, but not with any beneficial rain except maybe Cape Cod, where they need it least.

    Saturday looks a tad cloudier but the jury is out on that.

    I saw somebody on FB (not a meteorologist but someone who thrives on scare tactic reactions) post about a train of storms behind Isaias heading for Florida, and to gear up for a wild period over the next few weeks. Unfortunately for them, but fortunately for the rest of us, it actually looks quieter in the tropics during at least the next 10 days, possibly longer.

    We are going to be in a very dry pattern for along time I think.

    The end of next week may have a very cool shot of air that the models don’t see yet, but briefly.

    Boston hasn’t seen its last heatwave of the summer yet, but this is not going to be like 1983. If so, we’d have a hell of a lot of catching up to do. 😉

  20. Thanks TK.

    My power came back this morning after ~24 hours out. Many are still out here, and I would say NJ probably took the worst of this but CT definitely got hammered as well. Needless to say, this storm was anything but over-hyped. Once again, we get a glimpse of just how bad it would be should a Cat 2/3 storm ever affect the region. The increase in damage would be exponential, not linear. We’re not ready, and probably won’t be when it happens.

    I am immensely proud of how the weather enterprise handled Isaias. I’m certainly partial to my colleagues in NOAA/NWS, but this was a team effort all around. The NHC forecasts were phenomenal.

    1. I’m glad your power is back! Once again we had a vivid example of what even a “modest” storm (compared to the CAT 2/3 you referred to) can do to an aging forest. And that leads me to your most important point – the time when (not if, when) a CAT 2 or 3 storm hits New England. About 75% of the population is not going to be ready for what happens. It’s been a long, long time.

      Although I had to question some of the initialization, overall I think as well that the NHC forecasts were very good. They made adjustments when needed, and I hope this was also a lesson for many that a “day 5” or a “day 3” forecast position is NOT a written-in-stone thing. If that was the case, they’d be able to issue one forecast and never update it. 😉

      2. I fully believe that if the utilities once (if) again get back to tree maintenance along the power lines we will not see the problems. Far and away the vast majority or problems are along streets where wires run and not within the woods. I guarantee you That Conservatively on one out of three streets out this way you will find a large dead tree Branch overhanging the wires. And the double poles (that’s one for support for a second newer pole) were never allowed to remain for more than two weeks. You are right that folks won’t be ready. I’m hearing a ton of criticism of pole workers; but on the very positive side, I am also hearing a ton of praise.

    2. WxW glad to hear your power is back. I hear nothing but praise with regard to the forecast and warnings ahead so folks could prepare. Awesome awesome job

  21. I´ve noticed the last couple of weeks, the Providence to Boston corrider, points SE until you get close to the water and the Cape Bridges ……. that area has been hitting 90F or into the 90s a lot. Locations include Providence, Taunton, Norwood, Logan and Plymouth.

    We really got very little rain yesterday and have an absolutely parched landscape.

    Any kind of WSW, W or NW wind and I think this zone is consistently going to be hitting the higher end of the projected temp ranges until some water can get absorbed into the ground.

  22. More often than not, the CFS Monthly forecast has been projecting cold & dry weather for meteorological winter.

  23. Thank you, TK.

    I had hoped for somewhat of a cool down. Alas, it’s still warm. Not really hot, though. We haven’t had a cool interlude for a bit. Hoping that happens in the next 10 days.

    Speaking of weather changes from month to month. I always loved the lyrics of Simon and Garfunkel. In the tradition of the English folk song, poetic, and meaningful:

    April, come she will
    When streams are ripe and swelled with rain
    May, she will stay
    Resting in my arms again
    June she’ll change her tune
    In restless walks she’ll prowl the night
    July, she will fly
    And give no warning to her flight
    August, die she must
    The autumn winds blow chilly and cold
    September, I remember
    A love once new has now grown old

    1. There was no cool-down expected behind that storm. In fact, it was supposed to be warmer today (per the forecast above). The cool-down will take place gradually tomorrow & Friday as we get more of a wind from the NE and E.

      Simon & Garfunkel ..

  24. I see the other outlets have finally caught onto the cloud domination and shower risk for Friday. Maybe some of them had it yesterday. I didn’t pay much attention. I know everyone had it sunny 2 days ago when I had mostly cloudy. Walking out on a limb first. 😉

  25. Half the customers in CT are still without power. There have been some restorations (including my office) but it’s going to be a slow process and many will be in the dark for days more. Still lots of trees and branches down blocking lanes and trees resting on power lines over roads that have not been attended to yet.

    Completely agree with WxWatchers comments above and I mentioned similar at the end of the last blog. I don’t feel the storm was over hyped by our local Mets and I actually underestimated the widespread damage it did. Getting 60 mph wind gusts in a nor’easter In the winter is one thing. But when you get that constantly for 5 straight hours in the summer with fully leafed out trees you are going to get much more damage. Ramp those wind gusts up to 80 or 90 in a cat 1 or 2 hurricane and the distraction will be catastrophic. We live in a densely forested area with lots of aging trees that are clearly not able to handle the wind stress.

    2. I didn’t watch all of the locals but the ones I saw (mets) did a good job. The anchors left something to be desired but that’s nothing new.

      TWC, on the other hand… Well, it’s TWC. Need I say more?

    3. I absolutely agree with every word. We didn’t have anywhere near the damage in Sutton that you had and power is still out for some. It was promised back by Saturday but some of those are getting it back now. Trying to coordinate tree folks with power folks is not easy and then add in having to wait for winds to stop.

      I frankly think we got lucky because they are laying some pipe in the street adjacent to ours where the tree took the wires down. So it had to be resolved so workers could get back.

      Our Neighborhood lines are underground But doesn’t do a lot of good if the source power goes out.

  26. TK, you’re correct. A cool-down wasn’t forecast. My apologies for the confusion. I was just hoping for a cool down. We’ll get one soon enough as my Simon and Garfunkel reference suggests.

    Mark, the power outages and widespread damage in your state are remarkable. Good luck with the task of cleaning up the yard.

    2. I saw 160,000 Outages in Ma And I think over 700,000 in CT? Did I read incorrectly. But then I think of CT as more countrified

  27. Boston Buoy at 58.8F water temp … BRRRR!

    Quiz: Why is the water so “cold” today? 🙂

  28. Upwelling. Water temps down here at the south coast of RI.cooled down about four degrees to low seventies. No off shore wind component.

    1. I love the little beaches of Rhode Island. All those peninsulas, many with picturesque, relatively uncrowded beaches. It’s a great state, in spite of its size.

      I have friends there, and so periodically in the coming weeks I will be violating the quarantine order upon my return to Massachusetts, after a day ride on the East Bay bike path, for example. I’m not dining inside. I’m in very small groups of properly distanced and masked people (I know that’s a strange expression, you know what I mean). Is the risk zero? No. But, I know the numbers, and there really isn’t a differential between risk in Massachusetts and Rhode Island at this time.

      Since March, staying at home has indeed mostly meant just that for me. But, I have ventured out, mostly on my own to run and bike ride, and of course also do grocery and pharmacy shopping. And, I have occasionally seen friends in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with strict protocols being adhered to.

      1. My son goes from his home in RI to his job in Boston daily. He enjoys the states beaches and fishing areas as well.

  29. I’m a bit distraught with regard to discussion of folks not being able to pronounce Isaias and not ONE PEEP about misspelling of a Vicki. 😉

    1. People misspell my name all the time. Something about putting y’s where they don’t belong!

      1. Now that is curious. I was kidding tho. I never mind. There is no right or wrong way for a person to spell his lot her name. I do like nana for a storm name.

  30. According to Mike Waunkum, there have been now 10 days of 90F at Logan. Today hit 92. UGH!!?

    Frankly I thought the number was well into double digits heading towards 20 by now.

    TK – Why has Canada foresaken us the past few summers? Back in my day, nice cool air would make frequent appearances during summers around here bringing 2 or 3 days of comfort between heat waves. Now even the nights are persistently uncomfortable.

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