Saturday August 8 2020 Forecast

20 Comments

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

A weak disturbance crosses the region today with still some cloudiness in the region, even some showers/thunderstorms crossing the northern reaches of the WHW forecast area in south central NH early this morning. There will be enough solar heating today to create sea breezes and those boundaries, especially the ones near the South Coast, may trigger a few showers to form during the day today as well. High pressure then gains control for Sunday which will feature lots of sun and the feel of summer. This high will sink to the south and the resultant southwesterly air flow will increase the heat and humidity for Monday and Tuesday, both days generally rain-free other than the risk of a pop up afternoon thunderstorm. A cold front approaching Wednesday cutting into the warm/humid air mass will mean a better risk for the development of showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm threat south central NH into mid morning. Isolated showers favoring the South Coast this afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon to early evening. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

The front that arrives August 12 may still be hanging around in southeastern areas for an additional risk of a shower or thunderstorm into August 13 before a push of drier air later in the day into August 14, but that frontal boundary may never really get that far to the south at all and complete clearing may never take place. The same boundary may result in a lot of cloudiness over the August 15-16 weekend, and with high pressure centered to the north and northeast of the region, this should keep the air moderated, temperature-wise. By the end of the period the high should have pushed a little more to the south allowing the boundary to push more to the north, but this may mean a rare showery day if things come together just so. Can’t say I’m too confident forecasting rainfall on day 10 during a drought.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Typical August weather, humid, warm to hot, a few showers/thunderstorms, but overall rainfall pattern below average.

20 thoughts on “Saturday August 8 2020 Forecast”

  6. Did anyone see the laughable 840 hour gefs on tropicaltidbits.com. Who wants to bet people start talking about storms happening well passed the 10 day mark never mind the 5 day mark

  7. Thanks TK.

    RE: The GEFS…. Recall that several months (maybe a year?) ago the GFS was upgraded to its current FV3 core. However, the ensemble system was not upgraded at the same time, and only now is the FV3 core being implemented on the ensembles. So there is currently a “parallel” version of the GEFS running. As part of this upgrade, the 0z cycle each day will now run out to day 35 (hour 840) while the other cycles will continue to run to day 16. The operational GFS will continue to run to day 16 on all 4 cycles.

    On Tropical Tidbits, this data can be found in the “GEFS-Para” tab under ensembles, though at the moment there seem to be data availability issues.

    1. Ok, well that explains it, because I went there and saw ZILCH for data beyond hour 384.

      Thank you WxWatcher.

  8. I personally like the idea of a GEFS going out a little over month. It’s obviously not going to be perfect, but knowing that is part of meteorology. Again I caution that them being available to just anybody makes them available as a tactic tool for the unqualified “forecaster” running a social media page to be “first to say it” or to get reactions. If used properly, this will be a good tool. Think of it as a mini version of a climate model. We’ve seen some of them make horrendous predictions, but at least if used within reason they can help guide somebody in making projections into the future.

    1. What’s your thought on when this `pattern’ breaks, that is, the relatively warm stretch we’re in transitions into a somewhat cooler period? Eric Fisher showed the northern jet stream lifting way up into Canada and seemingly staying there indefinitely. Definitely different from last summer, when we had a fair amount of precipitation and by now we had experienced several fairly cool nights, with Northern New England dipping into the 40s. As a result, as I recall, foliage began a bit early in NNE, by late August. That’s not happening this year.

      1. I think the foliage will be ahead of normal because of drought stress. As for the jet stream. It will probably be back south later this month.

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