1. In Europe, the slight increase in hospitalizations is not running parallel with the significant uptick in new cases in several countries. Divergent slopes probably reflect a younger population getting infected. Slopes in the U.S. diverge, too, but not as much as in Europe. This is likely a function of a generally less healthy, younger population in the U.S. When I say younger I mean anyone under 60.
2. New daily cases in the U.S. are dropping significantly. The virus is more widespread than before (affecting rural counties, for example), but not as intense, with the exception of several hot spots in the South. Hospitalizations nationwide are decreasing, though not by as much as new cases. Same applies to ICU patients.
Please note, there are still many people in hospital, and many people quite ill with Covid-19.
Keep an eye on any locale that’s already been very hard-hit and observe if that locale (say, Boston, NYC, London, Madrid) is seeing a significant uptick in cases. I have yet to see this happen anywhere globally. For example, the rise in cases in Spain right now is not so much in the Madrid area. Increases in England are happening away from London. I believe increases in Massachusetts are also occurring outside of Boston. And, very few new cases are appearing in NYC. What may be protecting people is not so much having had the novel coronavirus (probably only 10% in Boston have had the virus), but their T memory cells. That is, many people have had or been exposed to different coronaviruses or adeno/rhino viruses, and the T memory cells spring into action when confronted with the novel coronavirus. It’s just a theory, but I’m a firm believer at this point.
Thanks Joshua as always.
Just to add my 2c, there has been a 40% increase in cases in children here in the U.S.
On that note, Boston is going to do a hybrid, 2 days in-person, 3 days at home. My thoughts on this is I hope there is a plan to go all 5 days “at home” just in case of further increases citywide. I personally would be shocked if any districts go all 5 days “at home” here in MA anyway.
*I meant to say “all 5 days in person.”
Saw this too late. I’m not sure that many have a full five day in person option. I know RI does.
There is a plan for all in-home. DESE has said there has to be an full in-home option. My concern is the focus on the hybrid model is taking away from the need for a well thought out plan for full in-home. The reasons for hybrid are truly legitimate in some cases. One is that there are parents who need to work in order to put food on the table and a roof over their heads. There should be a focus for that. I’ve said a dozen times that the YMCA’s set up in the spring for kids whose parents worked. Kids had adult help and access to computers and online lessons. Sweden kept its lower grades open for parents of kids who had to work.
I’m learning that many parents are choosing the hybrid model because their kids cannot participate in sports if they are full in-home. I’m still trying to figure out the logic behind that.
My sons private school Philip is going all in school 5 days with the option of doing remote if they want . Completely irresponsible of the school in my opinion & i am betting once the flu & respiratory illnesses kick in they will shut it down with a plan already in place . There virtual classroom that was a huge success this past spring has been updated even more for an even better experience. Should have did all remote too start with mass cases on the rise .
I’m listening to the Sutton SC now. They are going both hybrid and full in home. The supt made a good point. He said it would not be a surprise at all if they go full in home after a few weeks. There are 800 people in the school each day. He said he feels that it is important for kids to be in school At first to meet teachers and teachers meet them. In the spring they knew each other. Makes sense. But then the counter is that if kids go to school and it is expected to shut down fairly quickly, those kids and teachers will be exposed. It is a double edged sword and I can see the reasoning for both.
Joshua – very interesting. We are indeed seeing a slight uptick out this way. I posted a link last night to the cities and town in MA. I’ll repost below. The blame is going to student quarantine fatigue… a term that I find beyond ludicrous. But if it is indeed from kids now starting to get back together in small groups…..well, I think the result is obvious and I don’t get what the heck we are thinking as a society.
I am getting a sense of great fear of in person instruction from most teachers all over. I would be curious as to what our teachers here at WHW have to say on face-to-face. Tom, CF, Sue, etc.
Teachers will likely now be considered the new “front line” workers much like grocery store employees a few months ago.
Exactly!!!!
Great posts Philip, Vicki, SSK.
Vicki, you’re correct about the need for better planning for full at-home instruction. Hybrid model can work, but as SSK points out, what happens when in-person education is ruled out due to a spike in cases?
Philip, you make a good point about many children getting infected, especially this summer. Children aren’t nearly as susceptible to severe illness, but it’s not a risk-free proposition to expose children to the virus.
97,000 kids positive in the last two weeks of July seems to be a huge uptick. But then camps and schools also opened two weeks before that. Not sure how large the writing on the wall has to be but good grief
Another question Joshua. Sorry for so many. If they are seeing people have covid more than once, how does that impact the T cell theory.
Good question. And, I can’t answer it, other than to say reinfections with the novel coronavirus have indeed been reported but are not that prevalent. And, I haven’t seen reports of reinfections leading to more severe illness. I could be wrong about this. How all of this ties into T cells is a very interesting question.
Makes perfect sense. They really are just learning and I sure appreciate that
Well darn…..I am very proud of Sutton. I listened to the SC meeting from last night. There were going to be two options…hybrid and in home full. I no sooner finished it than an email came out and it was just voted for Sutton to go full remote. I have always thought this school system is as good as I’ve seen and I’ve gone from best private to best town. And the two options would not have changed that. But darn I’m so proud of them. The reason was as they looked at the hybrid plan, no matter how hard they tried, there was just too much risk
And we have a small number of kids.
And on the topic of what the heck….I didn’t say heck earlier…..
Big 10 Conference becomes the first power five conference to postpone college football. They will attempt to play in the spring. It looks like the Pac 12 will do the same thing. The other conferences ACC SEC and BIG 12 look to proceed on with their conference only schedule.
Philip, returning to school does not worry me. I would be happy to do a full return with all the precautions such as face-masks, etc.
The hybrid model itself, concerns me.
When you get down to it, the hybrid model gets each individual student into school for 2 days per week. To put some perspective into this, in a full return, students can achieve 20 days in school in 4 weeks or just before Columbus Day. In the hybrid model, it will take both cohorts until around or just after Thanksgiving to get to 20 in school days.
As difficult as it was when it hit last March, I knew my students, I knew their strengths and weaknesses, I knew their learning styles, I knew their interests, I knew what motivated them. That was incredibly helpful in continuing something worthwhile during remote learning. That obviously is not where we are starting from this September.
There are so many hoops for students, teachers and parents to run through to make the hybrid model work, again, earning each individual student only 2 days in school per week.
I wish we were either doing a full return or full remote. The coronavirus risk is there to everyone, but my experience says there will be more stress on students, teachers and parents in communities that choose a hybrid approach, being caused by the approach and not the virus.
Tom you are an amazing teacher. My heart aches for you and others who are caught in this. My oldest grand just found out and is devastated.
I am interested in whether Marshfield schools are large enough Safely accommodate all students in the school at the same time. I know your school is huge.
It probably isn’t large enough to meet the 3 or 6 ft rule.
I’m less about the virus and more about the obsession to get kids back into school. It’s a confusing obsession in that getting them in for 2 days seems like an acceptable idea for those who approve of the hybrid plan. But, to do that requires so many moving parts. I don’t know, if we’re going to run through 100 changes to make this happen, shouldn’t it get kids into the school for more than half the week ? It’s like the reward doesn’t come close to the energy invested.
Thanks Tom for contributing your thoughts. I hope CF, Sue and other teachers post their thoughts here on this page as well soon!
I think that is what finally forced Sutton to make the decision today. We have new schools. Even then the HVAC system is not adequate. The thought was keep the same groups together Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. It would make contact tracing easier and more effective. I’m not sure if your SC has been as open. They have had zoom meetings here for high school, middle school, elementary school. It is overwhelming but it is nice to see the transparency. Our superintendent wrote an email today. I can forward to you if you want. Just send your email to me on FB. Or maybe you have had enough. This was one part of the very long email….The governor has reduced the number of outside gathering to 50 and groups of more than 10 must wear masks, yet I recommended last night that we bring 800 students and staff into our schools 4 days a week. I can no longer twist myself into a knot trying to make a hybrid model work. I feel terrible that I did not come to this conclusion a week ago or yesterday, but this morning’s meeting convinced me that the hybrid model is doomed to fail and the health risks are too great to go forward with the plan presented last night.
Vicki, is that 4 days in person, 1 day at home?
Not really. One group monday/Tuesday and one Thursday/Friday with all out on Wednesday to clean school. So each group does three days out. There are variations of this of course. Another problem with five in is that deeps cleaning isn’t possible.
I just heard on the tv late afternoon/evening news that Tufts University will be returning as scheduled for the fall semester BUT the mayor of Somerville would rather students not return and conduct in-home classes instead.
If I’m not mistaken, Somerville is still in “shutdown” mode. They are well behind even as “slow” as MA is considered compared to those states that reopened up too fast. Phase 1? vs. Phase 3 (MA).
I don’t blame the mayor. Kids come from all over.
UMass football season CANCELED.
I’m not an epidemiologist or immunologist, so I can’t explain as well as Dr. Todaro does. Here, he explains what I’ve been saying about reaching a kind of herd immunity through T cell protection in hard-hit areas: https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1292873236716433416
Every country I look at and every region share the same pattern. Virus hits a city/county very hard, and it comes back at most with a glancing blow to that city/county.
I saved this. I’m not totally convinced. We went from denigrating Sweden to applauding them. All of that said, there has to be s9me reason my sons GF who is susceptible to bronchial type infections did Not get covid. She took care of my son and there apartment is miniscule. I know she is not alone
And thank you Joshua. I was remiss in saying that
C-19 for 8-12 is up…
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Somewhat positive developments:
1. In Europe, the slight increase in hospitalizations is not running parallel with the significant uptick in new cases in several countries. Divergent slopes probably reflect a younger population getting infected. Slopes in the U.S. diverge, too, but not as much as in Europe. This is likely a function of a generally less healthy, younger population in the U.S. When I say younger I mean anyone under 60.
2. New daily cases in the U.S. are dropping significantly. The virus is more widespread than before (affecting rural counties, for example), but not as intense, with the exception of several hot spots in the South. Hospitalizations nationwide are decreasing, though not by as much as new cases. Same applies to ICU patients.
Please note, there are still many people in hospital, and many people quite ill with Covid-19.
Keep an eye on any locale that’s already been very hard-hit and observe if that locale (say, Boston, NYC, London, Madrid) is seeing a significant uptick in cases. I have yet to see this happen anywhere globally. For example, the rise in cases in Spain right now is not so much in the Madrid area. Increases in England are happening away from London. I believe increases in Massachusetts are also occurring outside of Boston. And, very few new cases are appearing in NYC. What may be protecting people is not so much having had the novel coronavirus (probably only 10% in Boston have had the virus), but their T memory cells. That is, many people have had or been exposed to different coronaviruses or adeno/rhino viruses, and the T memory cells spring into action when confronted with the novel coronavirus. It’s just a theory, but I’m a firm believer at this point.
Thanks Joshua as always.
Just to add my 2c, there has been a 40% increase in cases in children here in the U.S.
On that note, Boston is going to do a hybrid, 2 days in-person, 3 days at home. My thoughts on this is I hope there is a plan to go all 5 days “at home” just in case of further increases citywide. I personally would be shocked if any districts go all 5 days “at home” here in MA anyway.
*I meant to say “all 5 days in person.”
Saw this too late. I’m not sure that many have a full five day in person option. I know RI does.
There is a plan for all in-home. DESE has said there has to be an full in-home option. My concern is the focus on the hybrid model is taking away from the need for a well thought out plan for full in-home. The reasons for hybrid are truly legitimate in some cases. One is that there are parents who need to work in order to put food on the table and a roof over their heads. There should be a focus for that. I’ve said a dozen times that the YMCA’s set up in the spring for kids whose parents worked. Kids had adult help and access to computers and online lessons. Sweden kept its lower grades open for parents of kids who had to work.
I’m learning that many parents are choosing the hybrid model because their kids cannot participate in sports if they are full in-home. I’m still trying to figure out the logic behind that.
My sons private school Philip is going all in school 5 days with the option of doing remote if they want . Completely irresponsible of the school in my opinion & i am betting once the flu & respiratory illnesses kick in they will shut it down with a plan already in place . There virtual classroom that was a huge success this past spring has been updated even more for an even better experience. Should have did all remote too start with mass cases on the rise .
I’m listening to the Sutton SC now. They are going both hybrid and full in home. The supt made a good point. He said it would not be a surprise at all if they go full in home after a few weeks. There are 800 people in the school each day. He said he feels that it is important for kids to be in school At first to meet teachers and teachers meet them. In the spring they knew each other. Makes sense. But then the counter is that if kids go to school and it is expected to shut down fairly quickly, those kids and teachers will be exposed. It is a double edged sword and I can see the reasoning for both.
Joshua – very interesting. We are indeed seeing a slight uptick out this way. I posted a link last night to the cities and town in MA. I’ll repost below. The blame is going to student quarantine fatigue… a term that I find beyond ludicrous. But if it is indeed from kids now starting to get back together in small groups…..well, I think the result is obvious and I don’t get what the heck we are thinking as a society.
https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/08/05/heres-how-many-coronavirus-cases-each-mass-town-has-had-over-the-last-14-days
I am getting a sense of great fear of in person instruction from most teachers all over. I would be curious as to what our teachers here at WHW have to say on face-to-face. Tom, CF, Sue, etc.
Teachers will likely now be considered the new “front line” workers much like grocery store employees a few months ago.
Exactly!!!!
Great posts Philip, Vicki, SSK.
Vicki, you’re correct about the need for better planning for full at-home instruction. Hybrid model can work, but as SSK points out, what happens when in-person education is ruled out due to a spike in cases?
Philip, you make a good point about many children getting infected, especially this summer. Children aren’t nearly as susceptible to severe illness, but it’s not a risk-free proposition to expose children to the virus.
97,000 kids positive in the last two weeks of July seems to be a huge uptick. But then camps and schools also opened two weeks before that. Not sure how large the writing on the wall has to be but good grief
Another question Joshua. Sorry for so many. If they are seeing people have covid more than once, how does that impact the T cell theory.
Good question. And, I can’t answer it, other than to say reinfections with the novel coronavirus have indeed been reported but are not that prevalent. And, I haven’t seen reports of reinfections leading to more severe illness. I could be wrong about this. How all of this ties into T cells is a very interesting question.
Makes perfect sense. They really are just learning and I sure appreciate that
Well darn…..I am very proud of Sutton. I listened to the SC meeting from last night. There were going to be two options…hybrid and in home full. I no sooner finished it than an email came out and it was just voted for Sutton to go full remote. I have always thought this school system is as good as I’ve seen and I’ve gone from best private to best town. And the two options would not have changed that. But darn I’m so proud of them. The reason was as they looked at the hybrid plan, no matter how hard they tried, there was just too much risk
And we have a small number of kids.
And on the topic of what the heck….I didn’t say heck earlier…..
https://apple.news/AApC7O86GSC-b_jFL0mk2rg
Big 10 Conference becomes the first power five conference to postpone college football. They will attempt to play in the spring. It looks like the Pac 12 will do the same thing. The other conferences ACC SEC and BIG 12 look to proceed on with their conference only schedule.
Philip, returning to school does not worry me. I would be happy to do a full return with all the precautions such as face-masks, etc.
The hybrid model itself, concerns me.
When you get down to it, the hybrid model gets each individual student into school for 2 days per week. To put some perspective into this, in a full return, students can achieve 20 days in school in 4 weeks or just before Columbus Day. In the hybrid model, it will take both cohorts until around or just after Thanksgiving to get to 20 in school days.
As difficult as it was when it hit last March, I knew my students, I knew their strengths and weaknesses, I knew their learning styles, I knew their interests, I knew what motivated them. That was incredibly helpful in continuing something worthwhile during remote learning. That obviously is not where we are starting from this September.
There are so many hoops for students, teachers and parents to run through to make the hybrid model work, again, earning each individual student only 2 days in school per week.
I wish we were either doing a full return or full remote. The coronavirus risk is there to everyone, but my experience says there will be more stress on students, teachers and parents in communities that choose a hybrid approach, being caused by the approach and not the virus.
Tom you are an amazing teacher. My heart aches for you and others who are caught in this. My oldest grand just found out and is devastated.
I am interested in whether Marshfield schools are large enough Safely accommodate all students in the school at the same time. I know your school is huge.
It probably isn’t large enough to meet the 3 or 6 ft rule.
I’m less about the virus and more about the obsession to get kids back into school. It’s a confusing obsession in that getting them in for 2 days seems like an acceptable idea for those who approve of the hybrid plan. But, to do that requires so many moving parts. I don’t know, if we’re going to run through 100 changes to make this happen, shouldn’t it get kids into the school for more than half the week ? It’s like the reward doesn’t come close to the energy invested.
Thanks Tom for contributing your thoughts. I hope CF, Sue and other teachers post their thoughts here on this page as well soon!
I think that is what finally forced Sutton to make the decision today. We have new schools. Even then the HVAC system is not adequate. The thought was keep the same groups together Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday. It would make contact tracing easier and more effective. I’m not sure if your SC has been as open. They have had zoom meetings here for high school, middle school, elementary school. It is overwhelming but it is nice to see the transparency. Our superintendent wrote an email today. I can forward to you if you want. Just send your email to me on FB. Or maybe you have had enough. This was one part of the very long email….The governor has reduced the number of outside gathering to 50 and groups of more than 10 must wear masks, yet I recommended last night that we bring 800 students and staff into our schools 4 days a week. I can no longer twist myself into a knot trying to make a hybrid model work. I feel terrible that I did not come to this conclusion a week ago or yesterday, but this morning’s meeting convinced me that the hybrid model is doomed to fail and the health risks are too great to go forward with the plan presented last night.
Vicki, is that 4 days in person, 1 day at home?
Not really. One group monday/Tuesday and one Thursday/Friday with all out on Wednesday to clean school. So each group does three days out. There are variations of this of course. Another problem with five in is that deeps cleaning isn’t possible.
I just heard on the tv late afternoon/evening news that Tufts University will be returning as scheduled for the fall semester BUT the mayor of Somerville would rather students not return and conduct in-home classes instead.
If I’m not mistaken, Somerville is still in “shutdown” mode. They are well behind even as “slow” as MA is considered compared to those states that reopened up too fast. Phase 1? vs. Phase 3 (MA).
I don’t blame the mayor. Kids come from all over.
UMass football season CANCELED.
I’m not an epidemiologist or immunologist, so I can’t explain as well as Dr. Todaro does. Here, he explains what I’ve been saying about reaching a kind of herd immunity through T cell protection in hard-hit areas: https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1292873236716433416
Every country I look at and every region share the same pattern. Virus hits a city/county very hard, and it comes back at most with a glancing blow to that city/county.
I saved this. I’m not totally convinced. We went from denigrating Sweden to applauding them. All of that said, there has to be s9me reason my sons GF who is susceptible to bronchial type infections did Not get covid. She took care of my son and there apartment is miniscule. I know she is not alone
And thank you Joshua. I was remiss in saying that
C-19 for 8-12 is up…