Friday August 14 2020 Forecast

62 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A mostly stationary frontal boundary still sits near the South Coast. This was the focus of some shower activity yesterday but today it should be less active and also slide a bit more to the south. This leaves the entirety of southeastern New England in a cooler and somewhat less humid easterly air flow that will be hanging around through the weekend and into Monday as well. High pressure centered to the north will be a player in this air flow, as will two waves of low pressure passing south of the region. Some of the guidance has been over-forecasting the development of wave number 1 and also bringing it too far north, but probably because the wave may end up at least being a hybrid tropical system. Whether or not it gets itself a designation by the NHC, it will probably be a tighter system passing a little further south, with not really any direct impact on our weather through Saturday, other than to enhance the easterly flow enough to bring some lower stratus clouds at times. At worst, these could produce a sprinkle or light shower, but expect largely dry weather. Low pressure wave number 2 is likely to evolve a bit slower than some guidance has shown, and even with a bit closer of a track to our area this should allow Sunday to be a dry day for the most part as well, with the closest pass of the low bringing a risk of some shower activity Sunday night into Monday. This will be out of here by later Monday and on Tuesday we can expect a weak cold front to cross the region with higher humidity and a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, although this would not be a system that would produce much in the way of beneficial rainfall. So expect our drought to continue to worsen as the days go by. It’s also important to note here that the NWS has issued a high surf advisory for a good portion of east-facing coastal areas through Saturday (this may be extended beyond that as well), for 3 to 8 foot breaking waves. Anybody planning on using a small boat near the shore, surfing, or at a beach vulnerable to large waves should be aware and practice caution.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coastal areas. Dew point temperatures 60-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point temperatures 60-65. Wind NE-E up to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of light showers favoring southeastern MA. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point temperatures 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point temperatures 58-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers favoring the South Coast later in the day. Highs 70-77. Dew point temperatures 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind E 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts possible especially South Coast, diminishing late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure brings mostly fair weather with lower to moderate humidity and seasonably warm air August 19-21. Higher humidity and a risk of showers and thunderstorms possible for the August 22-23 weekend, based on current timing of features in the overall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

A boundary nearby may start the period showery, then high pressure builds in, again from eastern Canada as has been a seen quite often, with overall dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

62 thoughts on “Friday August 14 2020 Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I want to echo North’s words. The addition of the dew points
    to the forecast is AWESOME!!! I hit the LIKE button
    a thousand times!!!!
    THANK YOU.

  3. SAK,

    I did read your response last night from my mobile device
    and responded with a bunch of emojis that did not show
    on Word Press.

    Anyhow, I loved your response and explanation. Pretty awesome
    cat you have there.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Thanks for adding the dewpoint temps! That was a good suggestion by JPD. I would like to go a step further and suggest that you keep it up until at least September 30th. I even recall one Columbus Day weekend a few years ago that was quite humid.

    I wish we could get some 45-55 dewpoints sometime. It has occurred in previous summers around here on occasion in the past. I guess we’ll have to wait til October?

  7. Sorry. Out this on covid page…copying to here

    Thank you. I always loved August nights that dipped into 50s. Son and grandson just stopped by to pick up Thule for camping in VT this weekend. It’ll be perfect camping weather

  10. Thank you, TK! Thanks for adding dewpoints.

    Philip, I’m with you on the dewpoints. It still feels uncomfortably humid to me. I walk around in a daze.

    My cousin has a home in central Quebec, about 90 minute/2 hour drive north of Quebec City. I couldn’t go there this year, due to Covid-19. But, I will try next year. He said it hardly ever gets warmer than 80F, and it never feels humid. Usually highs are in the upper 60s/low 70s. Often sunny, but perhaps a tad less than Boston in summer.

  11. One thing I look at is the sun is setting before 8pm and that is a sign were in the stretch run of summer. I always feel when you get past September 10th the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power.

  14. I feel like, for the first time in the last few days, we have a GFS run (12z) that looks a little more in line with the pattern we have been seeing all summer.

    The last 3 days have featured multiple trofs impacting the northeast, with 5 to 8C (850 mb) temps getting into northern New England. It has seemed, to me, to be out of place, even featuring an occasional drop to 8 to 10C briefly in southern New England.

    In contrast, this run, after this very brief block heads east, followed by a trof moving through, the 500 mb flow is projected to be relatively zonal with warm 850 mb temps (10C in northernmost New England to 15C in southern New England).

    This run looks more in line with what we have been seeing all summer.

  16. Sorry, I was just outside. It is still HOT and Sticky around these
    parts. My equipment is reading 88 and dp 64. Probably 84 or 85.
    Dp? Feels pretty damn humid. Really sticky in the house!

    1. Agreed !

      Airmass is still warm, 1,000 ft Worcester at 83F, summit of Mt Washington at 57F. Dp´s around that 60F mark and a bit higher as one gets closer to the coast.

      I tend to shut my AC off and feel like a refreshing airmass has arrived when I can´t feel an appreciable difference between the air in my house and the air outside.

      While the difference is less than what it was a few days ago, I can still feel a decent difference between the AC and the outdoor airmass today.

  17. If the models are having any success in the medium range, then I would offer that Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday next week as a period that could offer some reasonably comfortable air to southern New England. Perhaps a night in there, with lower dewpoints and the rapidly lengthening nights to have some 50s for lows in the interior and very comfortable low-mid 60s along the coastline.

    Enjoy if that happens though because I think there´s plenty of day-time above average warmth and a few bouts of moderate to high humidity to go in the next 6 weeks to get to the end of September.

  18. If I have been harping lately on the autumn outlook, it is because I have big concerns with it.

    In the 16 years I have been a classroom teacher, last September was by far the coolest, most comfortable September we have had.

    Unfortunately, with La Nina, drought and pattern persistence, I think we´re headed for a very warm September and this could be a problem without AC. fans and necessary mask wearing.

    1. I hear you. I’m playing two video recording sessions next week, also with masks and probably without AC — it makes sound that I think would be picked up by the microphones.

    2. Tom I’m telling you if your building is hot & you need to wear the mask all day in school ( I Suspect you do ) it’s tough . I am absolutely struggling in these hot days with the mask on & I am outside & you all know I love the heat. It’s absolutely uncalled for that you & other schools are even go hybrid it should be all remote . I have a planned minor day surgery on 12/2 I’m it won’t happen & I told my son all schools will probably be all remote by that time .

    1. Looked better earlier. The center looks a bit exposed now with the convection displaced northeast a bit. Of course, it’ll be moving over the Gulf Stream for the next couple of days, so NHC will have it up to hurricane strength in no time.

  20. I don’t buy Kyle being a tropical storm. Absolutely no way there is a deep enough warm core on that thing to qualify as a tropical cyclone. Not to say it can’t happen over the next day or two as it hits the Gulf Stream, but not now.

    Regardless, it’s heading harmlessly out to sea.

    1. So, who is calling the shots down there? Do they get a bonus for each named storm? This is clearly getting SILLY.

  21. I do appreciate the GFS’ stubborn consistentency. End of the 00 run- interior lows in the 40s and highs in the 58-62 range. 12 run end of period 90-95 for the interior daytime highs.

  22. IMO Kyle isn’t actually “Kyle” either. It’s just another stat-padder. Or as another colleague of mine calls them: “A junk storm”. It may eventually become something, which is fine, but if NHC is naming it when it isn’t what they say it is, that’s not good practice. The problems with tossing aside solid meteorological methods in favor of “politics” continue there, as we plainly see.

  24. JPD. My son in law installed an HRV system here today. I thought of you. Not for him to install of course but for air coming into your home. Just a thought.

    1. You mean that non-tropical low pressure wave that will be moving south of New England? No.

      Not every low is tropical. The one out there now named Kyle isn’t even a tropical storm, yet it’s being called one. To be fair, it may become one, but it’s not one yet (by meteorological definition, not by NHC “current definition”).

    1. Yes big difference at the hospital today wearing the mask. Although it’s still not ideal it’s so much better without the humidity. I believe it or not welcome this break .

    2. Now we all know how you feel about the heat & humidity and you make no bones about it. But I had a good laugh today on Facebook when I saw someone complaining about how cold it is. But wait, there’s more! The SAME person, 2 days ago, complained about how hot it was and that they couldn’t wait for fall. Good thing I wasn’t sipping my tea at the time…

      1. Yup I’m a straight shooter I absolutely hate cold & snow and summer is me season the hotter the better . But for trades guys working outside on a hot day & add a mask to it , it just doesn’t work out . This summer at the work I’ve just lost a couple of steps it’s been difficult.

  29. I’m not sure if anybody caught a satellite loop of “TS Kyle”. A low level swirl of stratocumulus clouds, a cold-core (or borderline hybrid) moisture-starved low, with a few thunderstorms ahead of it. That thing is SO NOT A TROPICAL STORM.

      1. Refer back to the many comments that I and other meteorologists have made during this season, and your answer will be there. 🙂 But if you don’t want to do that, the short answer is: Stats-padding / forecast-verifying. It’s not wrong when pretty much every long time met. that I know agrees with me, and there are people who have been in this field for decades who see right through this. This stuff did not happen when NHC had better leadership. That’s somewhat similar to some other things that I’m not allowed to talk about here. 😉

  30. Only 68 at the airport. 🙂 🙂 🙂
    I am NOT complaining. I think it is rather funny and very welcome.

  31. ESPN is reporting that Rask has opted out of the rest of the season and has left the Bruins.

    1. He has. I support his decision even if the timing sucks. Family is always bigger than the game. Yet all ’round social media all I see are people bashing him. That’s sad.

      1. On the Bruins blog that I read (Stanley Cup of Chowder), nearly all the comments to the story about it are positive and supportive. Those are the real Bruins fans, and that’s why I read that blog all the time.

        As for Kyle…I’ll borrow a phrase from the late-great Dick Albert – “MOTS” (More of the Same).

      2. Well, his postgame comments after the loss didn’t help. Comparing these Stanley Cup Playoffs as “exhibition games”.

  32. I love this weather. I’m wearing light sweatpants..not really because I have to but because it is fun to wear something different. It is a taste of what is to come.

    We were supposed to have left for Humarock today. I’m sad to be missing the big waves but there will be other years.

    1. Sorry Vicki !

      Quite breezy down here, rather dark and we´re getting some light, intermittent mist. It is nice to have the windows open. I am by a window that is to my left, faces north and there´s quite a nice breeze coming into the house.

    2. After the heat/humidity we’ve been through, I love it as well. Dewpoints still a bit on the high side (61F).

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