Saturday August 15 2020 Forecast (12:24PM)

21 Comments

AUGUST 15-19 (DAYS 1-5)

Discussion…

Our weather here in southeastern New England this weekend and Monday will be influenced by high pressure to the north and a couple waves of low pressure moving to the east and passing south of the region, the first of which has become our latest tropical system of the season, Tropical Storm Kyle, which is destined to pass harmlessly southeast of the region. The second wave of low pressure will not develop into a tropical system and while passing by a little closer than the first one, it will still be too far south to bring any appreciable rainfall to the region, with mainly dry weather being dominant. The most significant impacts of this synoptic set-up will be cooler weather, lower humidity (though not too dry), a noticeable breeze from the northeast to east, and some fairly rough surf along the shoreline, especially east-facing coastal areas, where boating, surfing, and swimming should be done with extreme caution. It won’t be the greatest beach weekend by typical standards anyway. Looking a bit ahead, this pattern lets go by Tuesday when a weak cold front crosses the region during the morning and midday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm and a shot of muggy air. This front moves offshore during the day and drier air arrives. By Wednesday, that front is dissipating offshore while high pressure builds in with nice mid August summer weather.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light showers favoring southeastern MA. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Dew point temperatures upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH coast with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point temperatures upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point temperatures lower 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-25 MPH coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south of I-90. Lows 63-70. Humid. Dew point temperatures lower 60s. E 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Humid. Dew point temperatures middle 60s. Wind E 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts possible especially South Coast, diminishing late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Humid – dew point temperatures lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Highs 77-84. Drying air. Dew point temperatures falling into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

High pressure brings mostly fair weather with lower to moderate humidity and seasonably warm air August 20-21. Higher humidity and a risk of showers and thunderstorms possible for the August 22-23 weekend, and a frontal boundary hanging nearby may keep some showers around at the end of the period – but still not seeing any sign of widespread beneficial rain.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

High pressure builds in from eastern Canada with mainly dry weather. Temperatures start seasonable with humidity in check then a trend to warmer/hotter and higher humidity begins.

21 thoughts on “Saturday August 15 2020 Forecast (12:24PM)”

  1. Thanks TK. Love those dewpoint forecasts. Keep them coming! 🙂

    I just wish the dewpoints themselves were considerably lower. Under 55 would be ideal.

    1. I’m kind of playing around with how I present it. I’m not sure I like ranges or just generals (the way I have it written today). I’ll figure it out.

      1. Either way, we’re happy. Thanks

        Personally,I like the range format, but I am just a cantankerous old man.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK. And thank you again for adding the dew point forecast. That is a really nice touch to the forecast.

      1. Nope. It was merely a suggestion. TK is the one who followed up and is doing the work to insert that information into the blog. 🙂 🙂

  4. Thanks TK.

    When it comes to Kyle, if anything it has actually moved further away from being tropical since yesterday. I often point out that low pressure systems exist along a continuum. There is not just “tropical” and “non-tropical”. There is gray area. And for that reason I generally defer to the NHC on their classification decisions. But I think my meteorology knowledge is sufficient to say that this storm is not in a gray area.

    Occasionally the NHC adds additional systems in post-season reanalysis that were not classified during the actual season, usually weak/short lived storms over open waters. I don’t think I’ve ever seen them remove one, but if ever there were a time to do it this would be it.

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

    1. Yes, yes. And thank you for your thoughts.

      I don’t think conditions in the Atlantic are going to be too favorable for that explosion of activity that some (I’ll call them) rumors around the net have been talking about. Shear, and even a good old TUTT getting in the way! I’m going to say we get to August 31 without a major storm.

      1. Ah, but there is still September which is the peak month anyway. So there is still time to go deeper into the alphabet.

  6. How do you folks feel about the time of issuance in the actual title? Or would you prefer I leave it the way I had it before? I like to have a time there so you can see how “old” the post is easily. And if I issue any extra update posts I tend to make note of the time on those too. I’m torn whether it should stay where it was or go into the title section. The latter makes me feel like it may clutter the history list a bit.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    You cannot believe how much better I feel. Totally rejuvenated. I realize it’s not a shot of autumnal air, but it is a real break, for a few days, from the fairly relentless onslaught of warm and humid (not record-breaking or terribly hot, but a long duration pattern).

    On a totally unrelated note, but certainly connected to summer, boy do the Red Sox stink. They’re early 1960s bad. In my lifetime, I’ve never seen the team be awful like this. They can’t pitch, catch, hit, or run the bases. Other than that, they’re fine.

    1. Seems we have sent our heat west. The area East of San Francisco that had below normal nights with wind Driving it home In July is now enjoying heat. My sister in law struggles like Mrs OS.

      Thursday 97
      Yesterday 103
      Today 102
      Tomorrow 94
      Monday 93
      Tuesday 98
      Wednesday 94
      Thursday 90

      1. They are all being woken up with a thunderstorm. My brother lives out there and sent me a video. A line came through and looks Like another one behind it with a warning. It doesn’t occur often out there.

      2. I have a friend out there who had noted the spike in heat there (northern CA for this person). This week she learned that sometimes when the East Coast cools, the West Coast heats up. 🙂 That pattern should break down there late this coming week.

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