Sunday August 16 2020 Forecast (8:28AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

Discussion…

The second of two low pressure areas will pass south of New England during the next 24 hours (through early Monday) before moving out to sea. This, combined with high pressure to the north, will keep a cool northeasterly air flow going across the region, and this second low pressure wave will be close enough to cause some rainfall mainly over the South Coast and southeastern MA, though patchy light rain is possible elsewhere, from this evening through early Monday before that chance drops off as the wave moves away. We will also continue to see rough surf especially along east-facing and north-facing shores into Monday, so use caution of being near or in the water there. With the evolution of these low pressure waves as they are, things are moving right along and a cold front I once expected to arrive late Tuesday will now be offshore by midday Tuesday. “Cold front” is only used in a sense, because it will actually be warmer behind that front, as the air mass will be of continental origin, and not modified by our ocean nearby but by sun-heated land that the air mass has been passing over. So once that front goes by, we’ll have a return to more of the feel of summer through midweek, but without the humidity spiking too much. By Thursday, a very weak frontal boundary will be in the region, likely dissipating, and will probably result in more decorative clouds in the late summer sky than anything shower threat, which will be minimal as it looks right now.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A very light shower or brief drizzle possible anywhere through early afternoon. An episode of showers more likely South Coast and especially Cape Cod late-day. Highs 68-75. Dew point temperatures upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain likely Cape Cod & Islands, lesser chance of rain elsewhere. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH inland, 15-25 MPH coast.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain far eastern MA favoring Cape Cod early. Isolated light showers possible anywhere late morning through afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH coast and 5-15 MPH inland morning, variable up to 10 MPH midday, S up to 10 MPH mid afternoon on.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms morning. 77-84. Dew point falling lower 60s to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Very light chance of a shower. Highs 76-81 South Coast, 82-87 elsewhere. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather and low to moderate humidity August 21. Higher humidity and showers/thunderstorms possible for the August 22-23 weekend, and a frontal boundary hanging nearby may keep some showers around into August 24 before high pressure builds in and returns fair weather to the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

High pressure is expected to be in control with generally fair weather and near to above normal temperatures for much of if not all of this period.

66 thoughts on “Sunday August 16 2020 Forecast (8:28AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK. Loving those dew points in the forecast. Thanks again.

    Radar looks ominous, but apparently the solid blob never
    makes it up here. We could use the rain. I hope we get some.

    1. Ca Plane Pour Moi

      The song’s name is a French idiomatic expression which is best translated as “everything’s going well for me” (literally: “it is gliding for me”).

    2. I love that song and there is no way Michael Jackson didn’t see that before the 80s started. 😛

      2. Very simple tune, basically a variation of 12 bar blues in B flat.
        Kind of in the style of the Sex Pistols and the Ramones.

        1. I have discussions like that about music with my son all the time. We’re in the process of creating our second single (and the second song we’ll release that’s not on our first “album”). The first one is sitting out there on YouTube. 😀

  6. Thanks TK.

    Logan received officially a Trace yesterday. Hard to believe since I don’t recall seeing any kind of moisture on my neighborhood pavements or sidewalks. Maybe they got “lucky”.

    From my perspective this has been a Top 10 weekend. No hot broiling sun for a change. Best weekend of the summer so far AFAIC! 🙂

    And best sleeping temps in awhile.

    1. Most places had a few sprinkles. They didn’t wet the ground in 99% of the locations they occurred. I recorded a trace of rain here in Woburn from 3 different very light sprinkles too.

      1. Ah ha. I’m now in the top 1%. I’m not registering a ton but our ground and everything else has been wet all day

  8. Does ANY of that South Coast rain make it up to Boston or just the southern suburbs? Based on current radar, it looks “too close to call.”

    Maybe…maybe not

    “Everything fails in a drought” as Barry used to say. I miss seeing him on air. Hope he is doing well in retirement. 🙂

  9. A quiz … which by the way I plan to start up again regularly (weekly) after taking a hiatus.

    Which cloud often has an anvil-shaped top?
    A. cumulonimbus
    B. cirrus
    C. cumulus
    D. stratus

    Answer later today.

    2. You must have had read my thoughts. I was wondering this am where you have been and hoping all is well. Thanks for the quiz. And happy to see you.

      I’ll go with A

  11. Thanks TK. Some much needed rain over southeast New England today. The NCEP models (NAM/GFS) absolutely trounced the European guidance (UKMET/ECMWF) on this event. I was quite surprised.

    The “real” hurricane season typically begins around 8/20. With an MJO pulse moving into the typically favorable phases for Atlantic hurricane development (phases 8/1) we should expect to see an active few weeks. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst!

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

  13. Petrichor!! That most wonderful smell of summer rain.

    However, we’re talking the lightest of sprinkles here.. But if it’s enough to generate petrichor, we’ll take it.

  14. WxW – Are those phases (8/1) that you mentioned the same combo that brings us major snow events in the winter?

    1. They are! The MJO is a tropical phenomenon, so the connection between it and tropical cyclones is more straightforward than its impact on mid-latitude weather. It produces large scale rising motion in the tropics which leads to enhanced convection, which during hurricane season can produce tropical cyclones. In winter, through a more indirect “domino effect”, it favors troughing in the eastern US and has been shown to lead to an increase in heavy precipitation events when it is in those phases.

      Moral of the story, whenever I see the MJO forecast to move strongly towards phases 8 and 1, I prepare myself for active weather, whether it be tropical activity or mid-latitude storminess, or sometimes both.

      1. Conversely, in our part of the world, phases 4/5 tend to be “quiet” phases. And the MJO is not always active, so sometimes it is not really a factor at all. It actually tends to be more active in the winter months.

  15. On radar that South Coast rain is oh-so-close to the Pike and Boston.

    I wonder if this is a precursor to the dry winter ahead that TK speaks of? Cold & dry, kiss them goodbye? If this was mid-winter that would be a nice South Coast moderate snow event…just missing.

    2. It is very much unrelated to the winter pattern (whatever that will be). It’s related to the current pattern.

  16. Even though some people were saying there would be a break from tropical systems, there really never was. Now we have two disturbances that are being monitored.
    This is a comparison between 8/16/2020 and 8/16/2017 what would eventually become Harvey. https://imgur.com/gallery/DciMBza

    1. Well let’s face it. Josephine, while a formidable system at the outset, never had much of a future. Kyle was never a tropical storm. So the outlook of a quieter period in the tropics (compared to before) was right on the money. And I suspect it will remain rather quiet overall for a couple more weeks. “Rather quiet” is definitely not the same thing as “no storms”. It’s also interesting to note that 2 dust plumes have emerged off Africa. The second one is rather significant and will do its part to suppress activity in the coming days. There are 2 disturbance that should be able to sneak south of that in the next several days that have a low to moderate chance of becoming a depressions in the next 5 days, but I’m not expecting much from them. When the GEM shows activity and the ECMWF & GFS do not, side with the more reliable Euro & US pair. They actually do a pretty decent job sniffing this stuff out.

      I agree with WxW about the MJO (and yes, Philip, 8/1/2 are generally favorable for snow events during winter). I do suspect however that a couple of other factors may make the tropics struggle even when we get to phase 8 for the first several days. I think after August 30, things change.

      1. I agree, I think there will be some “spin-up” time in the tropics. At the very least, nothing to worry about for the US in the next week.

  17. I’ve had a whole trace of rain 2 days in a row up here in the NW ‘burbs! Man the sump pumps, bail buckets, and build the arks! 😉

    I had to mow over my lawn today to chop back the crab grass that still grows ok in a drought, and pick up a lot of debris that had fallen from 2 maples (which I let dry out for easier cleanup) and it was like mowing a desert. DUSTY!

    The water level in the local pond here is getting dangerously close to how low it was in 2016. Yup. We’re in a bit of trouble, even with some “beneficial” rain today to the south. This drought is LONG from being over, folks. 😉

    1. My sump pump hole Has not dried out yet. I would expect it to be by now with the drought. Wondering where that water is coming from.

    2. Our lawn is toast. But we have a large bed that we cleared in the front of the house that has a bumper crop of lovely green weeds. I’m thinking it is much easier to just have a lawn of weeds

  18. Answer to quiz.

    Which cloud often has an anvil-shaped top?
    A. cumulonimbus
    B. cirrus
    C. cumulus
    D. stratus

    Everyone is correct … A it is.

  19. 0.18″ at last check, the most in the garden since August 5, nearly doubling August’s total to 0.38″ at the halfway mark of the month.

  20. The rain has been drying up overhead here now for 2 hours and refuses to fall to the ground. 😉

  22. In case nobody saw, Josephine is no more. POOF. SAK & I both suspected it wouldn’t get beyond the region north of the eastern Caribbean without dissipating. It didn’t get beyond there without dissipating. All the while it was being chased by a Saharan dust plume.

  24. Scott77. I just saw your post from CA temps. When Macs brother and family visited here in 89, they had barely ever had a thunderstorm they so wanted One while here. They also wanted to see lightning bugs. And why I am not surprised we both have family there

      1. Awwww so cool. I wonder if they live close. Please feel free to ask TK for my email if you’d like

    2. I agree. I am a little farther west in Lunenburg and it was a remarkable evening. I went from drizzle to almost clear skies right before sunset. The colors were beautiful.

  26. Thank you, TK.

    Light rain here on and off for a few hours. At least it’s something.

    Just 300 miles south/southwest of here they’re running a rain water surplus.

  28. Raining nicely here in Boston. I guess this was one rain event that didn’t “fail” after all…in spite of being in a drought.

    It will be interesting what Logan’s rain gauge will say come tomorrow. Certainly better than nothing at all.

    1. It still wasn’t significant though. Will have almost negligible effect on drought. It will be a series of duration moderate precipitation events that will end it, and I totally would not be surprised if that doesn’t happen for many months.

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