Other countries that beat back the virus with testing, mandatory solitary isolation of those infected, contact tracing, and strict lockdown will be (or already are) similarly up and running. Despite increases in New Zealand (several dozen), South Korea (several hundred), and Japan (several thousand) over the past few weeks, these countries are really not seeing a “second wave.” The total number of new cases in Japan over the past few weeks is less than Georgia in one day! The media doesn’t know how to work with numbers. They call a few hundred cases in South Korea “alarming,” yet say that New York state (about 700 new cases every day) is “doing great.” New York state is doing great, but so is South Korea. And, in fact, South Korea is doing even better.
Trump literally said he “doesn’t want to see a Covid surge like New Zealand.” He gets away with this nonsense, because most people in the U.S. – especially in the media – are numerically illiterate. Just because NZ’s caseload is increasing by around 10/day, while ours currently decreases by ~`1,000/day doesn’t mean NZ is doing worse. It is not. It’s light years ahead of the U.S. in everything Covid-related. There is something called baseline, and absolute numbers matter, for everything from healthcare system capacity, to contact tracing, to ability to stamp out spikes.
Joshua, what are your thoughts about the new saliva tests? They have been approved by the FDA. The results take less than 3 hours with a 94% accuracy rate. Certainly better than swabbing the nostrils.
Don’t know enough about them. Certainly more convenient, but less accurate.
94% sounds pretty good me. I don’t believe there are any medical tests anywhere at exactly 100%.
Besides, the fact that the FDA has given it its blessing, so to speak, means the tests must have great promise. That agency usually takes forever to approve. Other than a vaccine, this should be considered a breakthrough AFAIC, IMO. Every time I see a photo of someone getting the current test, they are always grimacing in pain.
22 days of 1000+ new cases. So cases going up. But the map on Has Connecticut in red. Mark? JJ? I thought they were doing great
Vicki, please explain. I think you mean that as a 7-day moving average we’ve had 22 consecutive days of >1000 deaths. Correct? Also, I certainly hope Connecticut is not red. I have seen a spike there similar to Rhode Island. But, gosh I really don’t think it warrants making the state a red zone. I also don’t think RI should be a red zone. Note, CT and RI test more than MA, in RI’s case, a lot more. I’m of course referring to testing rate, not absolute numbers.
Arizona and Florida are seeing significant drops in new cases, which is really good news. Less testing, to be sure. But the decline in testing is minuscule compared to the drop in new cases. Indicates testing positivity is dropping. Let’s hope Texas and California can follow suit, as well as several other Southern states like Georgia.
Today’s deaths nationwide will be the lowest number for a Tuesday since late July.
Numbers of new cases across Europe are trending down – in some cases way down – after a 2 to 3 week increase. This is VERY good news.
80% of school districts throughout the U.S. are going with remote learning.
Yep. Large number of schools opening and closing. Reminder cdc said reason Kids didn’t present with covid in spring is what they now believe was because they were quarantined quickly. Not the many of us have been saying this. I did a face plant when I read that.
The sad part, and our superintendent repeated it at least three times at the emergency meeting last Thursday, is the time they could have spent creating a really robust remote program was spent debating. Sad really because if was painfully obvious
Regarding a second wave: I wouldn’t discount it. Summer months the efficacy of people getting infected was supposed to naturally go down because warmth and outdoor activities lend to better protection against viruses even new ones. I wish I could be optimistic but colder temperatures bring much more vulnerability towards illnesses. And as people pack into places more, especially schools, and because peoples immune systems are more susceptible (this is why the summer and even fall aren’t ever known as cold and flu season) – I think a second wave is possible still.
There will be a second wave. The only question is the severity.
C-19 for 8-19 is ready…
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Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
China has pretty much eradicated the virus. I don’t believe there will be a second wave there. This is a scene in Wuhan: https://twitter.com/i/events/1295407741226201089
Other countries that beat back the virus with testing, mandatory solitary isolation of those infected, contact tracing, and strict lockdown will be (or already are) similarly up and running. Despite increases in New Zealand (several dozen), South Korea (several hundred), and Japan (several thousand) over the past few weeks, these countries are really not seeing a “second wave.” The total number of new cases in Japan over the past few weeks is less than Georgia in one day! The media doesn’t know how to work with numbers. They call a few hundred cases in South Korea “alarming,” yet say that New York state (about 700 new cases every day) is “doing great.” New York state is doing great, but so is South Korea. And, in fact, South Korea is doing even better.
Trump literally said he “doesn’t want to see a Covid surge like New Zealand.” He gets away with this nonsense, because most people in the U.S. – especially in the media – are numerically illiterate. Just because NZ’s caseload is increasing by around 10/day, while ours currently decreases by ~`1,000/day doesn’t mean NZ is doing worse. It is not. It’s light years ahead of the U.S. in everything Covid-related. There is something called baseline, and absolute numbers matter, for everything from healthcare system capacity, to contact tracing, to ability to stamp out spikes.
Joshua, what are your thoughts about the new saliva tests? They have been approved by the FDA. The results take less than 3 hours with a 94% accuracy rate. Certainly better than swabbing the nostrils.
Don’t know enough about them. Certainly more convenient, but less accurate.
94% sounds pretty good me. I don’t believe there are any medical tests anywhere at exactly 100%.
Besides, the fact that the FDA has given it its blessing, so to speak, means the tests must have great promise. That agency usually takes forever to approve. Other than a vaccine, this should be considered a breakthrough AFAIC, IMO. Every time I see a photo of someone getting the current test, they are always grimacing in pain.
22 days of 1000+ new cases. So cases going up. But the map on Has Connecticut in red. Mark? JJ? I thought they were doing great
Vicki, please explain. I think you mean that as a 7-day moving average we’ve had 22 consecutive days of >1000 deaths. Correct? Also, I certainly hope Connecticut is not red. I have seen a spike there similar to Rhode Island. But, gosh I really don’t think it warrants making the state a red zone. I also don’t think RI should be a red zone. Note, CT and RI test more than MA, in RI’s case, a lot more. I’m of course referring to testing rate, not absolute numbers.
Arizona and Florida are seeing significant drops in new cases, which is really good news. Less testing, to be sure. But the decline in testing is minuscule compared to the drop in new cases. Indicates testing positivity is dropping. Let’s hope Texas and California can follow suit, as well as several other Southern states like Georgia.
Today’s deaths nationwide will be the lowest number for a Tuesday since late July.
Numbers of new cases across Europe are trending down – in some cases way down – after a 2 to 3 week increase. This is VERY good news.
80% of school districts throughout the U.S. are going with remote learning.
Yep. Large number of schools opening and closing. Reminder cdc said reason Kids didn’t present with covid in spring is what they now believe was because they were quarantined quickly. Not the many of us have been saying this. I did a face plant when I read that.
The sad part, and our superintendent repeated it at least three times at the emergency meeting last Thursday, is the time they could have spent creating a really robust remote program was spent debating. Sad really because if was painfully obvious
Regarding a second wave: I wouldn’t discount it. Summer months the efficacy of people getting infected was supposed to naturally go down because warmth and outdoor activities lend to better protection against viruses even new ones. I wish I could be optimistic but colder temperatures bring much more vulnerability towards illnesses. And as people pack into places more, especially schools, and because peoples immune systems are more susceptible (this is why the summer and even fall aren’t ever known as cold and flu season) – I think a second wave is possible still.
There will be a second wave. The only question is the severity.
C-19 for 8-19 is ready…