49 thoughts on “Tuesday August 18 2020 Forecast (7:44AM)”

1. Good morning and thank you TK.

   I noticed that you included the dew point temperatures
   for the full 5 day forecast. LOVE IT!!! I hit the like button
   1,000 times.

   Nice forecast and great write up as per usual. Many thanks

   1. I agree

2. Well, the 0Z Euro has had a change of heart regarding
   that hurricane on the East coast. Let’s see what it does in
   upcoming runs.

3. Thanks Tk . When I left the house shortly after 3 this morning it was raining pretty good .

   1. I thought it must have rained and sure enough 0.19 on the gauge

4. 0.13 inch in ye ole bucket overnight. I will take any that I can get.

   To answer a question posed on yesterday’s blog. I have let my lawn go. I am not standing out there watering it! Period.
   If it is meant to be green, then it will rain, else who gives a flying *****!

   1. I woke up and heard the rain last night. It was a beautiful quiet rain. I d sad tops there with my head to the screen for 3-4 minutes. Only thing better would have been to be in a tent!

      1. Stood there…

5. Thanks, TK.
   So glad to see that drier air is expected later this morning. I’m having a hard time getting the humidity down in the house with the cooler outside temps (not complaining about cooler temps, though!)

   1. Already dry here. Yay. Nice morning to pressure wash the deck.

6. Thanks TK. 0.35 in my rain bucket this morning.

7. Thank you, TK.

8. It poured and thundered pretty good for awhile very early this morning. It will be interesting what ye ole Logan bucket will say in its climo stats later today.

   Can we have just one day of dewpoints in the mid-upper 40s please? Is that asking too much? 🙂

   NOT liking those weekend temps (both days) of 90. Oh well.

9. Nice thunderstorm when I got home at 2am with plenty of lightning and a few downpours. 0.63″ from that storm between 2am and 3:30am, and 1.09″ total since Sunday afternoon.

   1. Glad that forecast worked out. 🙂

10. Thanks TK !

11. 77 with a 59 DP.

12. The models will not be able to handle invest 98L in terms of track, and intensity until it gets a defined center of circulation which might not be until tomorrow. I am cautiously optimistic that it remains a tropical storm and will go north and east of the Virgin islands though its close.

    1. 12Z Euro, ZILCH as far as tropicals go through the 10 days
       of the run.

       1. The Ensemble tells a different story.

          1. I was fed up with Tropical Tidbits that I didn’t even look at the ensembles. That site is so slow!!

             1. I’ve been trending away from that site lately. It’s been horrendous.

             2. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html

          2. was that the 12z ensembles? thanks

             1. My comment below belongs here.

                Thanks for the link and thanks for turning us onto
                a new weather site. I really do appreciate it.

       2. I was about to say .. but of difference between the operation and ensemble.

13. The past few days have provided some help in spots, but the 12z Euro and CMC are just about goose eggs on rainfall in SNE for the next 10 days. If the tropical systems don’t become involved, near zero rainfall over that period is entirely possible IMO.

    1. GFS Ensemble mean is a general 0.50-1.00″ across SNE for the next 10 days.

       CMC Ensemble mean is a general 0.50-0.75″ across SNE for the next day 10 days.

       ECMWF Ensemble mean is a general 0.30-0.60″ across SNE for the next days 10 days.

       It’s below normal, but hardly zero.

       1. I tend to trend with WXW here. Ensembles too polluted by climo heavy members.

          Also models are sick at a particularly high level right now. And that’s coming from a boy who was 12 years at NCEP MDL Verification and was (maybe) integral in developing Weather Central’s Precision Microcast. Our model friends are just are so messy right now.

          ECMWF at about 100 F around 8/27 – 8/28 time frame. Yesterday it was about 75-80.

          My opinion, exception of tropical or anamlous connective events, do dry and dry for a while.

          1. Thanks SAK and JMA. I do agree that the ensembles are probably washing things out a bit with climo or outlier members. For this part of the country, a 10 day ensemble rainfall total of only half an inch or so is quite low, about as low as you’ll ever see it. But the models have definitely been bad and tropical is always a wild card this time of year. So I think favoring dry but being ready to adapt is the way to go.

          2. Here’s the thing….the models are bad, yet you are trusting their forecast of near 0 rainfall over the next 10 days. Yet most of them missed the rain we’ve had over the past 60 hours, some of them missed badly. I looked at every run going back to Friday night of the GFS/ECMWF/NAM. That’s nearly 20 separate model runs between 00z Saturday and 00z Monday. I found maybe 4 of them that were even remotely close to being in the ballpark for the rain we had around here. So, if they continue to forecast dry, and miss rainfall events, while the Ensembles do show rainfall (and did a much better job with this past system), why should I trust the operational runs again?

             1. SAK…

                It’s been dry in SNE all summer. Most of the year really. I think you’d agree the past few days haven’t ended the drought, and I know you know how an ensemble mean works and why they will never show a 10 day forecast of zero rain in this part of the country. My dry forecast is based primarily on persistence combined with the fact that the upper level pattern on the deterministic and ensemble models do not appear supportive of widespread rain in SNE, absent a tropical event. I’m not “guaranteeing” that there will be no rain in SNE the next 10 days. I am sure there will be. But it would not surprise me if some places come up essentially empty, and I expect rain will be solidly below average overall.

                It’s a forecast, and we’ll see what happens. But please don’t insinuate that I’m blindly trusting the operational models.

                1. SAK is right that the models, except the GFS, blew the Sunday’s rain.

                   I am being just the opposite (what else is knew) I don’t trust model output and generally going with my applied meteorology. Been right with it before ( and even more sure, I have been wrong with it) but right now leaning generally dry well into the Fall season.

                2. Yes, it’s been dry, but the precipitation events that we have had recently have been very poorly handled by the models, even in the short-range. So just going with persistance, because it’s been dry and the models say it will remain dry, doesn’t always work either.

                   For the record, all but 1 of the 20 GFS Ensemble members have more than 0.1″ across most of SNE in the next 10 days, and half of them have more than 0.5″. On the ECMWF Ensemble, 20 of the 51 members have more than 0.5″ in the next 10 days, and only 4 have less than 0.1″ total. Not drought-busting, but also not “dry”.

    2. The you WxW. I do enjoy seeing your name here
       JMA also.

14. Mark… The Islanders can complete a sweep of the Capitals tonight! Go NYI!

15. Thanks for the link and thanks for turning us onto
    a new weather site. I really do appreciate it.

16. 0.24 inch in ye ole Logan bucket.

    0.16 this morning + 0.08 yesterday evening.

17. Kudos to Harvey Leonard for pointing out that one of the reasons there are “more tropical systems” these days are because we have better technology to see what was often missed in previous decades. That’s an important caveat to add that is often not added to stats like this.

    1. And, we may be a wee bit more aggressive in naming them…quantantive analysis of wee pending.

       1. HAHAHA! Well you know my thoughts on that one. 😉

18. Hurricane Diane 65 years ago on this date. Portions of southern New England received 15 to 20 inches of rain in 24 hours! Imagine what that would do with much more pavement and landscaped area today compared to back then.

    1. Yep. It is storm I’ve mentioned when we were at Humarock and my dad left for work. He said it was in NC and he’d be home in time. I recall watching the water come into our kitchen while my mom ran next door to call my dad. He contacted a friend who got us and we watched boats sink from his home on the hill on the other side of the river

       1. A lot of stories from the hurricanes and tropical storms of the 1950s, a very active decade. I’ve heard many from the MA State Climatologist I worked with for years. He was very interested, as would be expected, in the big events.

19. And then there was Bob 29 years ago tomorrow

20. Ahh well TK, close game but a tough loss tonight for the Islanders. Still in the drivers seat though up 3-1. I am hoping they can wrap it up Thursday.

    1. Yeah. Caps still have life. They are a tough team and TBH I was surprised they were down 0-3. Go Isles! Always my second choice team behind the B’s.

       Chicago was the first team to go down in round 1 last night… Vegas moves on.

21. Another August night in the 50s. Gotta love it

22. A full 33 minutes earlier than yesterday, new weather post!

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