Wednesday August 19 2020 Forecast (7:11AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

Discussion…

High pressure will be the main player in the weather for a good part of this 5-day period, but not the only player. A weak trough will pass through the region from west to east today and be enough to trigger some cloud development and a possible pop up shower in a few locations. This actually brings in a slight reinforcement of cooler/drier air through early Thursday, which will result in that hint of the coming autumn in the air to start the day Thursday. But you’ll very much know it’s still summer as we move through the next several days to a return of a little more heat and humidity, especially by the weekend. By Sunday, we’ll put the chance of a shower or thunderstorm back into the forecast as a cold front approaches the area. Another reminder to be cautious with any outdoor open flame as we’ll be seeing fire danger higher than average due to long term dry conditions.

Details…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 84-89 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly late in the day. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

The cold front that moves into the area at the end of the coming weekend will hang around next Monday (August 24) with a risk of showers and still humid air. High pressure builds in with generally fair weather and near to above normal temperatures for the middle of the period before an approaching front brings a shot of high humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms around the end of the period. With some medium range guidance predicting the potential for a tropical system off the East Coast by late in the period we should also pay attention to that. It may end up as no threat at all, but you don’t discount anything this far in advance in hurricane season.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

High pressure is expected to be in control with generally fair weather and near to above normal temperatures for much of if not all of this period.

56 thoughts on “Wednesday August 19 2020 Forecast (7:11AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I must say those dew point temperatures in the forecast really
    stick out. LOVE IT!

    Ahhh down to 58 here in JP earlier this morning.

  3. Thanks, TK…

    Remembering Hurricane Bob in 1991 and, piggy-backing on TK’s comment from last night, Hurricane Diane dropped 6.15″ of rain 65 years ago, the third most in Taunton’s history. The most daily rainfall ever is 6.50″ on August 26, 1924.

    The Massachusetts state record for rainfall (I think it’s the state record) was due to Diane in Westfield at 19.75.” Connecticut’s state record was also set 65 years ago today in Burlington at 12.77″.
    Hurricane Connie had hit the area only five days before and there were places in Connecticut that had 25″ of rain between August 12-20.

    Source: https://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/flood-of-august-1955/

    I will try to post some photos of Hurricane Bob from Onset that I recently found.

    1. Since our last name begins with B and is not Bob and today is Mac’s birthday, I always thought they should have used our last name. Mac spent the day climbing the ladder through the opening to the attic to empty a bucket tucked wayyyyy down in the eves where we had sprung a leak.

      I never thought Bob was as bad as Gloria in our area. Although, I know it caused significant flooding in some areas.

  5. This is more of weather question than a Covid-19 question so I will post it here:

    Does anyone know of an OSHA or state regulation of heat/heat index in the work place? With no AC and limited amount of fans allowed in the classroom this fall, is there a regulation that the temperature or heat index can’t go above before it is deemed unsafe?

    1. That’s an issue in the music industry too; it’s generally covered in a group’s cba, if they have one, so there may not be an overall mandate.
      Recording in concert clothes yesterday afternoon was a challenge!

    3. I found this

      OSHA laws on temperature in workplace
      OSHA does not have a specific standard that covers working in hot environments. Nonetheless, under the OSH Act, employers have a duty to protect workers from recognized serious hazards in the workplace, including heat-related hazards. … Workers new to outdoor jobs are generally most at risk for heat-related illnesses.

      https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/heatillness/heat_index/

        1. No AC, but, in a Zoom union meeting yesterday morning, we were told that fans will be allowed as long as the fans are not directly on the kids or staff. They will have to pointed towards the ceiling.

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Following up on Vicki’s comment last night — I’m remembering Hurricane Bob today. That was my father-in-law’s 80th birthday, and 8 of us were scheduled to take an overnight sailing cruise from Boston to Marblehead and back! Instead, we wound up in a shelter on Cape Cod, where we were staying. We postponed the sailing trip for a day and enjoyed some good swells but no trouble.

    1. Awwww. I know it is a bittersweet day for you. Big hugs going your way. Great people were born August 19.

      And your music industry comment caught my interest.

  7. Re: Hurricane Bob

    Remember that well.

    Wind was not much in Boston. I think it gusted to 64 mph
    at Logan and considerably less here in JP. Mostly in the 30s and 40s with occasional gusts into the 50s.

    Shortly after the storm (next day or following day) my wife and I took a drive with our son down to Falmouth. I could not believe the damage. Sections of Shore road were gone. Cottages wiped off the map and others were blown across a little bay to the other side of it.

    We should not have been there, but no one kicked us out.
    Huge trees down all over the place. We couldn’t even
    look down some roads due to the amount of tress
    strewn across them.

    I have and old 8mm video of that some where? Probably in box in a closet in the attic.

    Pretty Amazing.

    1. Iirc the day after Bob arrived, it rained most of not the entire day here in Boston but not too much wind.

      Is my memory correct on that JPD or TK or any others?

      2. August 20, 1991 in Boston eas overcast with some showers during the late afternoon that became a steady rain at night. Northeast winds 5-10 mph in the morning increased to 10-20 mph during the afternoon and evening.

        During Bob, Logan had a peak gust to 56 knots. Other peak gusts around the area:

        Blue Hill 68 knots
        Boston Harbord 62 knots
        Nahant 59 knots

    1. Yet another fantastic job by the models forecasting precip…oh wait….they didn’t have it this far north….again.

      2. Even made it to Boston. Just enough to wet the pavements, but Not enough to trip the rain gauge. Oh, and it dropped the
        temperature from the low 80s back down to 73.

      3. The models were SUCKTASTIC today, and only 24 hours or less in advance. Can’t say my forecast was much better, but my goodness we’re in dire straits with model performance right now.

  9. https://imgur.com/McZ2ihn
    https://imgur.com/swEELa3
    https://imgur.com/rUrI2pq

    I had friends who rode out Hurricane Bob in their beach home in the Point Independence section of Onset. They had given me photos they took. I lost them for the longest time and they turned up during a Covid clean last spring. Three of the photos are linked above.

    Two things stick out in my mind from that storm: Many did not believe the forecasts until the last minute. There were traffic jams heading to the Cape in the middle of the night to pull out boats at the last moment. I had heard that there were cars and trucks driving on the median of 495 to get to the Cape.

    I worked as a camp counselor in Westport in the summer of 1991. The camp owned a beach at Brayton Point on the Massachusetts/Rhode Island state line. We went down to that beach a day or two after the storm and, sadly, there were dozens of dead rabbits in the dunes who had drowned in the storm surge.

  10. Well hmmmmmmm. Plan b may be needed for our outdoor celebration of Macs birthday tonight. Someone please tell me that other line is going to go north of here. Pahleeezzzzz

  14. I just chatted with Macs brothers wife. If we have to postpone Macs birthday celebration is pales in comparison. Being Macs twin, Cam won’t have a celebration due to fires and heat. They can’t go outside. The hospital where her daughter works may have to be evacuated. So difficult for all.

    1. Yeah my brother commented today that maybe he shouldn’t have been so excited last week about the storms given the fires now.

  15. All of today’s “minor” threats are over-performing. Ah well. I’m not alone. I’ve seen some of the best mets in the business remarking how today’s forecast was pretty much not verifying.

    1. It happens. You are virtually spot on each and every time.
      I wouldn’t worry about it.

      Did you see any of us say: “ha ha your forecast was a bust?”

      1. Haha no but it wasn’t a great forecast. I ALMOST included t-storms along with showers but I didn’t, and I would have probably left the wording as “isolated”.

    1. I saw that flash from here. 🙂 Exactly in the right direction and distance for what you described.

  18. Well then My oldest grand is calling papa the storm cleaner. We were debating what to do since we have to be at a distance outside for his birthday celebration. With a mass heading here and a severe warning over us this is what My guy did. We of course are blue dot

    https://imgur.com/a/LMcMV7K

    1. This is the end of the threat. The over-performing trough is about to leave your area. 🙂

      1. Hey, I’ll take whatever I can get. Hasn’t been much rain, but it certainly was welcome.

        Thank you, TK, for your forecasts and explanations, as always.

  19. Ok first shower got the pavement wet, nothing in bucket
    2nd one delivered 0.03 inch
    3rd one delivered 0.06 inch

    0.09 inch on the day.

  20. Scott77. The thunder storm you mentioned in CA caused 33 (Macs brother thought but may be off by a couple) of the current fires. Some were 500 acres. Some thousands. But resources are limited so for a 500 acre they may get a truck and maybe a helicopter. Not enough. It is the same corporate greed that causes longer outages here

    1. Wow thanks for sharing that info. Not sure if it’s still the case, but I know they were watching a similar T-Storm set up for that area again this week. Hopefully that goes by the boards.

      1. I hope so also. I worry about my niece as she may well be called in if her hospital has to evacuate. Right now the mandatory evacuation ends 1/2 mile from her hospital

      1. As far as its ultimate destination, we’ll see. Ultra-caution on this forecasts right now.

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