Thursday August 20 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)

37 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Discussion…

High pressure will control the weather the next 3 days, starting out with a coolish morning today. You will notice a warm up and a slight increase in humidity as we progress toward and into the weekend. The risk of a pop up shower or thunderstorm is very remote on Saturday, but there will be a better chance of showers and thunderstorms developing during Sunday afternoon as a cold front approaches. This front will still be in the vicinity Monday when more cloud cover and additional shower activity is possible.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 84-89 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly late in the day. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A weak trough passes with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm August 26 and a stronger cold front moves through around August 28 with a shower and thunderstorm threat. The vast majority of this 5-day period will be rain-free with overall temperatures near to above normal, though a nice shot of cooler air may be here for the end of the period. As far out as I can tell I don’t see any East Coast threats from the tropics at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

High pressure is expected to be in control with generally fair weather and near to above normal temperatures for much of if not all of this period.

37 thoughts on “Thursday August 20 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  5. Thanks TK!

    The Boston Public Garden lagoon is going to be drained and cleaned after 20 ducks died due to botulism, which grows in stagnant pools of water during periods of extreme heat. The birds suffered from paralysis and severe respiratory issues. Sadly, none of the ducks were able to be successfully treated and had to be euthanized. 🙁

    I would be curious if this is at least indirectly Covid-19 related as well. Just a thought.

    2. The lagoon getting this polluted is because of covid as the people responsible for keeping it clean were not hired due to covid

  7. My Weekend Outlook will be delayed a bit today. Instead of being published early afternoon, it likely won’t be up until sometime this evening or early tonight. That’s because TK and I are heading down to Martha’s Vineyard for the afternoon. We couldn’t have picked a better day for “Meteorologists on Vacation”.

    The company I work for does forecasts for WMVY (I do the morning drive forecasts – recorded the night before). One of the perks we get from them is free passes on the ferry from New Bedford to the Vineyard.

  8. Philip, Matt, TK: While botulism is cited as a factor, I wouldn’t discount cyanobacteria. The Boston Public Garden lagoon may be impacted by this algae-related scourge that is killing wildlife in the Esplanade lagoon. I live very close to the BPG lagoon and noticed it was green and slimy, just like the Esplanade lagoon. Yet, there were no signs at the BPG that indicated cyanobacteria.

    I don’t think this is remotely Covid-19 related. I also have seen staff doing work in the Garden throughout the pandemic. It looks well-maintained. In fact, more beautiful this year than in previous years. The tropical plants are especially luxuriant this year.

    Every February/March they clean out the lagoon. Not sure why they do this so frequently, but they do. They emptied it of water just prior to Covid-19. Then left it empty until late April or early May (must later than usual), as I recall. So, the water is relatively fresh. But obviously some bacteria got into the pond. This could be drought-related as rain refreshes the water naturally, and there’s obviously no water flow, like in a river.

    1. Thanks Joshua. I haven’t been to the BPG in at least a few years. Back in the 2000’s I used to go there almost religiously.

    2. Cyanobacteria….a familiar term. Mac was alway cautious about kids using local Shallow area lakes In summer heat. Great comment Joshua

  9. Watching the 12z GFS run …….. we know the models have been struggling.

    I think its going to be a tough autumn, perhaps even worse than the summer they have been having.

    In the heart of summer, the jet stream can be in its least strongest phase and is furthest north. Even with that, the models really struggled with the northern half of the US jet stream location.

    Get into autumn and the transition of seasons towards a stronger jet stream and a southward moving jet stream, I would theorize the medium and maybe even short term errors to magnify.

    I know it can get cool in Canada in early September, but what the GFS has in eastern Canada in early September looks a month early.

    1. I hope the models get straight for the winter. Hard enough to forecast during that season especially as it is.

  10. Chamber of Commerce weather today. 75F to 80F, dewpoints 50F or a little under. This is superb.

    If we had experienced a cool summer to this point, I think I would be rating today differently, but given what we´ve had, this feels great !

  12. Just spent a hour chatting with my swedish friend who is at her getaway home in PA. Weather there is as glorious as here.

  14. As Tropical Tidbits has become effectively useless, I figured I’d
    provide another possible backup site to our model watchers. College of Dupage and Pivotal Weather remain very viable options. The site below is another; I know SAK has linked from here before, I hadn’t used it previously but have been experimenting with it a bit today. Some good features for sure, though so far neither it nor the others quite stack up, IMO, to the old Tropical Tidbits in terms of user-friendliness. But I like the custom zooming ability on this site, and the ensemble low track plots, and it has a pretty rich inventory of parameters for most of the models, minus the ECMWF which is a few basics only.

    https://www.weathernerds.org/

Comments are closed.