Friday August 21 2020 Forecast (6:55AM)

48 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

Discussion…

High pressure retains control of the weather today, but as its center will have slipped off to the south the door is open for a warmer air again, and you’ll notice that today with a southwesterly wind. This will continue into the weekend but with an increase in humidity. A cold front will slowly approach the region by late in the weekend, but both days will carry a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though they will be on the isolated to scattered side, with many areas likely to remain rain-free. That front will be in the area Monday and there may be some additional showers around, and another front will approach Tuesday with yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sound like a wetter pattern? Not really. The area’s drought has been upgraded to moderate to severe and this will remain in place for a while.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-85 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 79-84 South Coast, 84-89 elsewhere. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly late in the day. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90. Dew point middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

A weak trough passes with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm August 26 and a stronger cold front moves through around August 28 with a shower and thunderstorm threat. The vast majority of this 5-day period will be rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal through mid period cooling to near to below normal late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

A front or disturbance should be passing through around September 1 with a shower risk, otherwise high pressure will be in control the majority of the time with mostly dry weather. Temperatures warm up to start the period, then cool down mid period before warming up again.

48 thoughts on “Friday August 21 2020 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  6. And right on cue the frenzy all over social media about the first time ever that we have two hurricanes in the gulf… With the tiny exception that it would not be the first time of having two strong tropical systems there and they are currently not hurricanes and not currently in the gulf. But hey, don’t want to take away from the hype. 😉

  7. Somebody just sent one to me that essentially says…

    Storms number 13 and 14 could collide in the gulf to become a fujiwara megastorm.

    AAAAHAHAHAHA!!!

    1. Egon: Don’t cross the streams.
      Peter: Why?
      Egon: It would be bad.
      Peter: I’m fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean “bad”?
      Egon: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.
      Raymond: Total protonic reversal.
      Peter: That’s bad. Okay. Alright, important safety tip, thanks Egon.

  8. I’m curious to see what the mountains of Cuba do to Laura.

    Also noting that the 11:00 a.m. advisory keeps the western system a little bit weaker.

    Oh well, it looks like no fujiwara mega storm after all. 😉

    1. Hi WxWatcher. And of course. It is an even day – a day I can water rather than a day that might give three in a row. 😉

  10. For about 7 to 10 days now, I think, we have been experiencing a different pattern than seen most of the summer.

    There has been modest ridging up around Greenland/Davis straits and a substantial 500 mb ridge over the western US.

    The combined forces of the 2 have helped to carve out a trof in SE Canada that peaked with the airmass we had Tuesday thru yesterday.

    I think there are hints that this pattern with those 2 features will be ending. That modest heights near Greenland and the Davis straits will be going back to lower heights and a more progressive flow.

    The big western US ridge will be retrograding out into the northwest Pacific ocean and a trof will be developing in the Pacific NW. Without the modest heights near Greenland, the jet stream over the northeast will generally be heading back to the north.

    I think the 00Z EURO´s next cool plunge at days 9 and 10 is way too amplified and too cool. 5 to 8C in southern New England for 850 mb temps, that doesn´t fit the overall long term outlook of above average temps.

    I actually like today´s 12z GFS op run for its big features (not talking at all about small scale features). On this run, future trofs into the northeast are swipes, with 850 mb temps dropping to 10-12C behind any cool fronts. Lots of days with 850 mb temps of 12-15C with a few days higher than that and 500 mb heights consistently from the mid 570 dm to mid 580 dm.

      1. The good news is climatology, rapid loss of day-light and rapid decreasing solar angle are all working in our favor to moderate future warm spells as the weeks progress.

        But, yes, I would expect more above average warm spells throughout September.

    2. The dew point dropping into the forties in some areas would definitely corroborate your thoughts to some degree.

  11. I believe that the NHC is being a little bit too generous with the strength of a system literally scraping along Cuba.

    and both systems face increasing wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico once they arrive.

    1. According to the Ch. 7 met, it would be the first time in history for two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.

      1. Truth

        Twice before, in 1959 and 1933, two tropical storms have entered the Gulf at the same time. But never before have both been hurricanes. It might not go that way. Only one of the storm systems has yet strengthened into a tropical storm — a dangerous cyclone, but not yet a hurricane.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Tom, thank you for the explanation of why warm times may persist. I hope you’re wrong, but I fear you’re right.

  14. Just saw that NOAA has above avg temp into Nov. going to be a warm winter this year. Below avg snow.

    2. Those outlook maps are really not worth much. They forecast above normal temperature pretty much 12 months per year. And they also forecast above normal precipitation far too often.

  15. For the record “double hurricane” is not a meteorological term but it is a media term. A double hurricane does not actually exist.

    1. I have not heard that term. But I have not heard anyone Even say there would be two, just the potential. And we all are smart enough to know that two tropical systems have the potential to be devastating under normal circumstances. Add in limited spaces to evacuate accompanied by safe covid regulations has to be horribly stressful for folks along that area. For one….my heart aches thinking what they must be thinking

      1. No doubt about that. My statement was just about the term itself. I think people here in general know that it is not something mets use, but we have about 1900 readers so I want to make sure everyone knows. 🙂

        1. Understood. I got curious…..no surprise….and did some searching and can’t find it as a double hurricane but find a fair amount Of First time that double hurricanes could hit gulf.

  16. As of 11PM they are indicating that Laura is a tropical storm, but observations would lead me (and probably many mets) to believe that she is merely a depression. Very poorly organized, hardly any good convection over the center, among other things. I’m thinking her future isn’t all that bright, in terms of short to medium term survival.

  18. Hi all,

    1900 readers?!!!!!!!!!!!! Wow!

    And only a very small subset ever post.

    Makes me want to clean up my act. 🙂

        1. You always behave. You make me smile and nothing can beat that …especially now.

          How’s your house? I’ve had ACs off past couple of days and it has been lovely. But we get nice breezes through. I hope you can say the same

          1. It was much better for a few days, but had to have
            the ACs on again yesterday as it hit 90 once again
            here. We’re running about 5-6 days ABOVE
            Logan’s total for 90 degree days.

            This house heats up like a pizza oven!

    2. Indeed we do Dave. And you’re fine. And so am I. And so is everyone else. The guidelines I set out for my blog are being followed by all. The comments section is for asking questions, discussing, AND opinions. All 3 are done here. As a meteorologist, and a person, I certainly have opinions myself. I make them known here on my blog and will continue to do just that here on my blog. 🙂 Carry on!

  20. New post for weather forecast is up…

    I’ll update tomorrow morning but I’ll be away from the blog most of the weekend unless I need to comment on any t-storms.

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