72 thoughts on “Saturday August 22 2020 Forecast (9:53AM)”

1. Thanks, TK.

   It’s very still this morning here on the Cape after noticeably windy (and much drier) conditions yesterday. A good day to walk early!

2. Good morning and thank you TK. Great write-up as per usual.

   Will it storm or will it not, that is the question. We sure can
   use the rain. Eye to the sky and of course the radars.

   1. I know it’s going to pour this afternoon, because I’m headed back to North Conway after a brief 2 day return, to allow my daughter to attend a summer dance activity.

   2. That’s actually the cheap version of a write-up in my opinion. my heart was not in it this morning and there are already storms in the forecast area but I can’t edit my blog from where I am right now.

      1. No worries, TK !

3. Thanks TK !

4. https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

   Pretty good shower/storm btwn Keene and Manchester.

   1. I guess. and it is only 10:307 AM!

   2. Slowly expanding SouthWestward. Will the southern
      end make the city? Or Pass just to the North?

      If it makes the city, it will clock Logan and miss me completely!
      🙂 🙂

      1. We got hit here in Pepperell. Quick moving, no wind but some nasty lightning.

         1. Hello,

            I don’t think I have welcomed you Chris.
            If you have been here awhile and I missed that, I am so sorry.

            Welcome!

            Are you the person that reports to TV stations
            from Pepperell? Curious. 🙂

            1. Thanks! I am an in frequent poster. Nope, that person is not me 🙂

5. Looks like there might be HAIL just West of Woburn.

   https://imgur.com/a/03L6wpr

   1. I’ll probably SPLIT the goal posts!!!

      1. I do wonder if that southwestern most fell that developed increased your odds of getting a storm, JpDave ……

         1. I really think that I will be in the space between
            Northern blob and Southern blob

            https://imgur.com/a/y9Db2VW

         2. Ae we getting a line of showers heading this way? Just heard some thunder. Wonder if we’ll get some rain.

6. Pouring in Sudbury. No thunder/lightning/wind – as of yet, if at all. Nice summer rain; we need it. Opened a window and loved the smell of the rain. Clouds are amazing and storm moving fast. I think the worst of the storm was to the north of us.

7. Sun out in Sudbury now. Will see what happens w/any storms later. Hope if any develop they won’t be severe; just rain.

8. If you believe the 12z GFS, Louisiana is going to have a REALLY bad week.

   1. My Brother lives in Lafayette, LA and IF this were to verify,
      the center would pass just about over his house!

      https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020082212/108/prateptype_cat.us_sc.png

9. We received the briefest and lightest shower, enough to
   register 0.01 inch in the bucket.

10. Hi all! I needed a nice walk and a t-storm to clear my head. I was up very late last night dealing with a few things (no worries, it’s all good).

    So to my defense, the short range guidance, AGAIN, had NO thunderstorms this morning. But I should have been paying close attention to current conditions when I wrote that blog. The morning t-storms were pretty decent where they happened. I got a good pic of a shelf cloud as the storm approached me. I’ll send it here in a few.

    1. I would say that should do it for the rest of the day. Radar totally clear as far west as I can see. Unless something suddenly pops out of nowhere?

       Just a very quick sprinkle here. I highly doubt even 0.01. Barely a trace I would say. Boston pretty much missed out.

11. Thanks TK! Hope everything’s ok with you.

    The sneaky severe potential appears to be verifying.

    1. It’s good. Just a little stressed out. It happens to all of us! I am on vacation for nearly 2 weeks (this is day 3) so you’d think I wouldn’t be… HAHA. But it’ll be fine.

       Yes, cell down by Brockton now. SAK is in that area and he’s experiencing it.

       1. It dropped a quick 0.11″ here and the temp fell to 75, but the sun is starting to come back out now.

          1. And once again an epic failure by the short range guidance. Two times this week.

             Well the HRRR did start to pick up on it overnight at least.

             1. Round 2 is about to move through.

12. Thank you TK and take care. Hope you get some nice relaxing time on your vacation. Enjoy!

13. Here is a conventional shot of the approaching thunderstorm late this morning…

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/117888595_10158729079167265_287557249266670050_o.jpg?_nc_cat=103&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=BQEhUIkZtzkAX97ZlS3&_nc_oc=AQnplK8V5GtP5ltHd_ZEeXlX3Cb8BK23d-aPVRzQ_sGy6CodT5A0xKxu2Ak3fCJUKzw&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=91e6525ff6b501babff4b2ea24d967b0&oe=5F68BDFF

    This one here is a panoramic shot that I had to try several times to get and it’s still not that great (a bit choppy & warped) as I was sticking out a 3rd floor window for it. Just as I swept to the left a lightning bolt came out of the area on the right, striking about 1.5 miles away…

    https://scontent-bos3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/117891617_10158729089052265_4992269697066321532_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=Hrh3luMSUtkAX90hwPA&_nc_oc=AQkBYvq2jP-E4cUtJEfhns6b9VwDahhks9OsaNSy4W_TtuZ8yjOvHOuLevPRt4n0MtA&_nc_ht=scontent-bos3-1.xx&oh=1edb807223f4c19e8e627ae6e1b747de&oe=5F652C3A

    1. Nice !

    2. Those are awesome!

14. The 12z Euro op run isn’t starting too promising for Louisiana either.

15. Round 2 is about to move through.

    1. Was watching that. Warning on the cell now.

       1. Another 0.26″ in the rain gauge from storm #2.

16. Amazing how just two hours ago after the first rain area moved on, the radar had absolutely nothing out to the west. Now it’s quite active just west of Boston.

    How did the things bubble up so quickly? A very unstable air mass today?

    1. Not to mention getting dark here as well.

    2. Yes. It’s unstable. That’s why stuff is popping. A little daytime heating was all that was needed. Now it’s a combo of heating and outflow boundaries from previous convection that is helping to drive the other activity.

       As SAK mentioned previously, epic failure by short range guidance again. As mets, we too get caught off guard by this sometimes, but we’re always looking for it and trying to pick up on it if we see it. The next question is how many more short-term events are going to be missed by clearly struggling guidance?

17. Raining here now. No thunder. Northern edge of that
    Southern stuff. Another 0.01 inch so far. We’re getting hammered! 🙂 🙂

18. NOT!!!!

    1. well, now up to 0.03 inch.

       1. Just a trace here in Back Bay. Maybe 0.01 inch, if we add the two traces together. Looks like rain is imminent, but then it doesn’t happen.

          The mugginess is driving me bat crazy, though. I realize it’s not super soupy. But, man, I’m desperate at this point for dew points in the 40s.

19. Quiz.

    What state is home to all five of the most lightning prone U.S. cities?

    A. Florida
    B. Alabama
    C. Mississippi
    D. Louisiana

    Answer later today.

    1. A.

    2. I’ll guess A. Thanks longshot

       1. A

20. It was crazy here in Pembroke golf ball size hail for round two & pouring rain.

    1. Looks like round 3 getting ready

21. Getting it really good down here it’s absolutely pouring out now from # 3 with plenty of thunder

22. Cell #3 dropped another 0.31″ here, which puts my up to 0.68″ for the day.

    1. Nice. Not so lucky up this way.

       Total in the bucket: 0.06

       0.01 for the 1st and 0,05 for the 2nd

    2. Your not far from me Sak that was sick

       1. “Not that far” = 15-20 miles. That makes quite a difference.

23. More stable air arriving now so that should effectively end the threat except just the risk of a quick shower or storm along a lingering boundary here and there.

24. Short delay in today’s PGA.

25. Third round to resume at 4:35 today. I had a feeling looking at those clouds the horn was going to blow and there was going to be a weather delay.

26. Thanks TK.

    We have had a great week of weather here in the Outer Banks. Leaving tomorrow to head back.

    We had a few hours of downpours Wednesday afternoon and I woke up to a brief downpour overnight last night. Otherwise it has been completely dry. Seasonable temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints pretty constant around 73/74.

    The shower and thunderstorm activity has been a bit more widespread inland and south of us but another testament to the models having difficulty in the mid and long range. When I read the NWS Morehead City forecast discussion a week ago, I thought we were going to be in for a very wet week!

    1. Glad the weather worked out Mark !

27. Heavy showers and a couple rumbles of thunder came through Sterling earlier and left a completely clear sky. Love the contrast of days like this.

28. Just ran 4 miles. It’s still very warm and humid. Sweating like the devil and feel crappy. I sure hope this rather relentless warm stretch has a flip side this winter, with a relentless period of cold. I fear, however, the latter will not happen. I’d say that in a typical year Boston’s periods of warmth or heat are (much) longer than periods of cold. We mostly experience spurts of cold and only occasionally a lengthy, uninterrupted period. There are exceptions, like 2011 and 2015, I know. On the other hand, it’s very common – almost every summer – to experience long periods of warmth and heat.

29. I think we (Bristol County) were in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning all afternoon. My son who works in Bridgewater says trees are down and power is out there. I heard there was 1″ hail in Middleborough.

    I took this photo of that storm from my church in Norton after afternoon services at around 5 pm.

    https://imgur.com/G7AE3O3

    1. That was pretty much the jackpot area if there was one. Even some areas further south.

       Another epic failure by the abysmal short range guidance. I don’t know what’s up with that the last several days. But it’s not like SAK hasn’t been telling us that for a couple weeks now. 😉

30. This from Middleborough Gas and Electric from 5 minutes ago:

    There is significant damage to all areas of north and east Middleborough and some areas of south Middleborough due to the sudden storm this afternoon. Crews are continuing to remove large fallen trees and tree limbs on lines and wires to repair the system. This work may continue late into the evening. Please stay inside and report any downed lines through the Outage Center. Remember, all wires could be live! We will update here as soon as more information is available. We thank you for your patience.

31. Yikes captain on mIddleboro. Hope all is fixed soon. We had on and off showers that didn’t amount to anything. We sat out in all. But with oldest and family here too I was not able to follow anything

32. No matter what I feel that the Central Gulf will have a major flooding issue on their hands this up coming week no matter the strength of these two system. Marco looks to battle some shear on its approach, but Laura who knows what she is gonna do particularly in terms of intensity.

    1. Well said. And horribly limited evac options compared to what normally would exist. My heart aches for the many facing what is “typical” on top of the horrors for far too many that 2020 has brought.

33. Answer to quiz.

    What state is home to all five of the most lightning prone U.S. cities?

    A. Florida
    B. Alabama
    C. Mississippi
    D. Louisiana

    Everyone is right. It is A.

    1. Thank you as always. Very fun

    2. With the heaviest concentration close to Tampa.

34. New weather post is available for your visual consumption…

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