One More Warm Day, For Now…

68 Comments

7:18PM

This round of Indian Summer is just about to end, but not after one more very mild day on Wednesday. A cold front will be moving into New England from the west Thursday, crossing the region from west to east at night. At the same time as this, Tropical Storm Sean will be moving northward in the waters offshore, probably far enough to keep its heaviest rain out over the water, but close enough that it will steal energy and moisture from the approaching cold front. The net result of this is probably less rain that we would have seen with these systems interacting slightly differently or arriving in a more separated fashion. There is, however, a slight chance of one slug of heavier showers along and/or east of Route 95 sometime late Thursday afternoon or early evening as one plume of tropical moisture gets away from Sean and tries to move up in the upper level southerly flow ahead of the cold front. There is about a 50/50 chance that the thrust of this heavier shower activity stays just offshore – something that we need to watch via radar on Thursday.

Behind the cold front, Friday (Veterans Day) will be a blustery, cool day, but should also be dry. I’m removing any chance of showers from the forecast as I think the already moisture starved system will be just sucking in more dry air from the west.

The Weekend: High pressure will be in control, though it will star to slide offshore by Sunday. Dry weather will dominate, along with a good deal of sunshine probably both days. Some medium range computer models try to bring cloudiness in rather quickly on Sunday, but I’m staying optimistic, thinking these clouds will be limited. Either way, expect no rain. Temperatures will start out chilly Saturday, but moderate to seasonable. Sunday will turn a little milder.

Earlier, I stated that “this round” of Indian Summer was about to end. We’re not done, as I believe high pressure along and just off the East Coast will strengthen, with next week’s Monday-Tuesday possibly being very similar to this week’s – fair and mild to warm.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low ranging from the upper 30s inland valley areas to around 50 in Boston. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 61-66. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, especially in the afternoon, greatest chance of heavier showers along and east of Route 95. High 55-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely early, heaviest near the coastline. Patchy fog. One more round of scattered showers from west to east a bit later at night. Low 42-47. Wind variable becoming N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Sun and passing clouds. High 50-55. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 54.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

68 thoughts on “One More Warm Day, For Now…”

  1. Thanks TK. I am enjoying these mild days. Its good to get some yard work done and a some rounds of golf in before I put the clubs away for the winter.

  3. Does anybody know what Boston came in at today. I was doing some walking by fenway park wearing a t-shirt, sure felt warm.

  6. I am definitely enjoying this mild weather. It just seems so weird when the sun sets so early – seems like it gets dark fast – not much of a twilight or dusk. In any case, it will be interesting to watch Sean and what he does.

    I am putting in a request, however, for a sunny but cool-cold Thanksgiving and a cold and snowy Christmas. Ideally, a day or two before Christmas I would like a gentle snowfall of about 4 inches and a clear Christmas Eve and sunny Christmas Day. 🙂

    2. That is usually my exact request. Though once in a while I like a cloudy Thanksgiving, and Christmas Day can be cloudy with flurries. Something about Christmas Eve though, I love being able to see the sunset that day.

        1. You might think I’m kidding I know my son reads the forecasts here if he’d ever post he’d tell you I am a kid at heart when it comes to Christmas. Of course I have probably now embarrassed him enough that he’ll never post

  8. Hadi, I believe BZ will be doing some sort of winter forecast at 11 pm on Wednesday. Don’t know if it’s BB’s or not.

  10. I did see a BZ weather promo early this am. The station said it would give its winter weather forecast at 11 pm tonight. I did not get the impression this was necessarily BB’s forecast which may be separate. But whatever forecast they give tonight, it would be hard to imagine that it won’t be heavily influenced by BB.

  12. Longshot, I agree w/you on that. I just looked at the Eastern US satellite loop and it looks like the center of the storm is just sitting still. Some outward bands of clouds are moving northwesterly. And the link you showed shows it moving away from here.

    Here is the satellite loop I have – http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html

  13. Old Salty, yes, I see what you mean. Re-reading TK’s post I can see the “plume” possibly moving away from the initial storm and affecting us. And thanks for the link – interesting.

  14. Hi guys. Did anyone hear about the powerful ocean storm that has been pounding the coast of Alaska. The storm is packing winds of 60-80 mph bringing in a storm surge that is approaching 10 feet. They haven’t seen a storm like this in November since 1974. I wonder if it will have any affect on our weather. And I couldn’t agree with you more Vicki. I’m a complete kid at heart when it comes to Christmas:)

      1. The smiley face was for being a kid at Christmas and not for the storm in Alaska! Thanks for posting how many years it has been – my first thought was that you don’t hear much about something like that in Alaska

  16. I think there may be Hurricane Sean by this evening or late tonight…….

    The last two days, Nov. 7th and 8th, have sent Logan’s temp departure up to +1.4F for the early part of November and today should add to that.

    Havent had a chance to see the long range EURO, but the long range GFS, while showing plenty of cold air in Canada, shows progressive flow at high latitudes, allowing the cold air to move more west to east, versus north to south.

    1. Tom, I see that.

      Several days ago, it looked like cold air was going to pur in here, but now
      it doesn’t look that way right to the end of the runs, and that is 16 days.

      Sure looks like it won’t be until after Thanksgiving, if not early in December.

      BTW, going way back as long as I can remember, the regime change would
      usually occur somewhere between the 1st and 15th of December, Of course
      with some variation.

  17. I was just out in the back yard and amazed at the color in the two old oak trees we have in our yard. The maples were dull again this year but I think it has to do with the disease they all seem to have. My guess is John and others know about that. The two oaks typically turn brown and drop leaves. This year they are a gorgeous golden color and with the sun shining on them it is a spectacular sight!

    1. I’ve noticed all of the trees in Marblehead have all of a sudden changed color, not sure what made it happen, especially with these warm days.

  18. Leaves doing their sudden change right on schedule. It’s simply the lower sun angle. Eventually, nature takes over one way or another, even when the temps are mild. Watch for rapid leave drop in the next 7 to 10 days.

    Evaluating some new info, might shift one axis of heavier showers to the Berkshires and the rest offshore with Boston area caught in the middle tomorrow. More later. Updating coming mid evening…

  19. Hello everyone, sorry for not posting for the past couple days…computer problem since Monday afternoon. I had to purchase a new one. Let’s see if this post ends up in “moderation”. Will post many rants later… 🙂

    1. Nope…same as always. I wasn’t sure if this website would still “recognize” me.

      Keeping my fingers crossed no more issues for awhile. 🙂

  20. From the NHC at 4PM: GIVEN THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE…THE NEW NHC
    FORECAST SHOWS SEAN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH…

    Currently at 65 mph.

    Amazing.

  21. Hey Philip… good to see you posting again. Looks to turn unsettled tomorrow but I can’t complain with this great stretch of weather. After I am done raking the leaves then I will be wanting to see snow.

  23. We were sitting on the deck in our sweatshirts and sweatpants and I can’t help but wonder what makes 62 in the fall feel colder than 62 in the spring. And certainly if it were 62 in the summer we’d be in shorts and T-shirts and not sweats. Is it the dampness in the ground? I’d think that would be there in spring. But I told my husband I’d see if anyone here had an explanation.

    1. Vicki, most of the issue is expectation. You expect to be cold and dress for that even if it is not required. Also, like you said, much of the issue is humidity. Cold air in the fall is dry air and dry air feels cooler. During the summer, the humidity is higher since the air is warmer. You also feel colder when hungry, although some people report feeling colder when they eat. Drugs that alter blood flow can make you feel warmer or colder. Alcohol is a vasodilator. Drinking allows core heat to flow outward giving a sense of warmth. Nicotine is a vasoconstrictor. Smoking restricts blood flow to the extremities making them feel cooler. I’m sure there are other conditions as well that affect why 62 in the summer feels different than 62 in the winter–if that makes sense.

      1. Thanks for the great explanation My husband was cold and I was surprised and pointed out he would not be complaining in spring which is what led to me wondering about it. I don’t wear jackets in winter because I figure you are only cold if you think you are so my mindset is to not feel cold However I was wearing warm clothes so will go with the dry air adding a bit of a cool feeling My cocktail probably helped keep me warm too:).

  24. a 5.7 earthquake has hit eastern turkey. at least three dead and dozens trapped. I had thought that I heard this over dinner. After many searches for information I found It on underground weather.

    1. Good luck Scott. You have taught me so much about weather, and I thank you
      for that. Just keep up the great work and the right things will come to you. You have a bright future waiting for you. I am proud of you.

    2. Scott I echo Johns comments. You will be a tremendous asset to whatever college you attend. I wish for all great things for you.

  27. All the dewpoints in eastern Mass are now at or over 50F. Its going to be a very mild night.

    Heading under 10 hrs of daylight and a solar noon sun angle thats 30 degrees or less above the horizon. Hello solar winter.

  28. Todd’s BZ winter forecast:
    1) 50-60 inches; Dec-Jan will be the bigger snow months.
    2) Temps coldest Dec thru mid-Jan, but should be about average for the season.
    3) BB will post more in depth info on BZ blog.

  29. Those numbers are little higher than what I am thinking but I would not mind being wrong if there is more snow than the 40-45 inch range I predicted. If there is less than that I will be disappointed unless there are 1-2 good Noreaster’s.

    1. I laughed at his closing paragraph. So is everyone in agreement that we may see a nor’easter while we are at the beach in January ??? That would be the highlight of my year!

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