Wednesday August 26 2020 Forecast (7:38AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)

Discussion…

Fall preview today with an invigorating Canadian air mass flowing across the region, marked by a gusty breeze and extremely dry air. But it’s going to be short-lived, as humidity starts its climb back, first with the arrival of a warm front and disturbance on Thursday. That warm front may struggle to make much progress through the region due to a wave of low pressure on it, and this will lead to a shower threat. There is the possibility of strong thunderstorms for any areas that get into the warm air behind the front, or even right along the front itself, but as it stands now, with the front’s progression likely to be limited, the heavier storms may occur mainly south and west of the WHW forecast area, over western CT westward into NY and southward into PA. However we should monitor this in case this threat does make its way further east. Once the disturbance moves away and pulls the boundary away with it, a weak area of high pressure will build in for Friday, which will be a nice summer day other than higher humidity and a risk of a pop up shower or thunderstorm. On Saturday, expect high humidity and a good chance of showers and storms as a disturbance moves through, and tropical moisture from the remains of Hurricane Laura may enhance the rainfall potential here, but that remains to be seen. This will be fine-tuned as we watch the progress of that system. When we get to Sunday, another push of dry Canadian air will arrive as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada.

Details…

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to near 40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except patchy fog in low elevation areas. Lows 47-54. Dew point rising through 40s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but possibly stronger near any storms.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable to SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure brings fair, dry, pleasant weather to end the month of August, then shifts offshore with temperatures warming to above normal during the first several days of September. One or two fronts will try to get close but may never completely make it through the region, so there will probably will be some cloudiness at times along with a few shower threats.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

The general patterns should feature high pressure in control most of the time aloft with weak frontal systems trying to push through, resulting in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday August 26 2020 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  2. Important note regarding Saturday…. It’s day 4, so I didn’t get too specific, but I can mention here in the comments that a good part of the daytime hours of Saturday may be rain-free, as we may end up with a warm front in the pre-dawn with showers, and a cold front waiting until nighttime to come through, infused with some of the moisture from Hurricane Laura’s remnants. If it still looks like that, or however it looks, I’ll start to get a little more detailed in my breakdown starting with tomorrow’s update, but just wanted to note that this is how I am leaning at T minus 4 days.

  4. Thanks TK.

    A highly volatile setup tomorrow south of the warm front, among the best Northeast US severe weather environments in years. It remains to be seen where the warm front sets up. Right now, I’m in pretty good agreement with what the SPC has done with their outlook. I’ve been starting the morning reading through the AFDs from offices in the area. Good agreement overall that south of that front, severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are possible.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Curious to hear your thoughts on why yesterday failed to produce much in the way of thunderstorms, let alone
    severe ones. The SPC issued a watch, but it looks like
    nothing severe materialized.

    Not being a met nor anything close to an expert, I noticed
    the dew point falling well before any action got remotely
    near my location, even though the front had not passed.
    There was a good wind, so my guess is that with the upper
    flow being northwesterly, that drier air was mixed to the surface and thus that soupy 72 dew point was erased
    along with fuel for the storms. Is that anywhere near
    close to what actually happened.

    Many thanks

    1. JPDave… I think you pretty much nailed it. Mid-level dry air was more extensive than initially forecast and choked off many of the updrafts and limited storm coverage. If you look all across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, there were a fair number of damaging wind reports. In large part because of all that dry air, it was a very favorable environment for strong winds. But the key was getting updrafts to break through a dry layer aloft. Most failed, but those that made it became respectable thunderstorms, some of them severe.

      1. One thing I can add to this is that the activity that I did witness was very high-based to start with, so getting them through was tough. It seemed like they had not much upward momentum. A few got going, but getting outflow boundaries to start the cycle of new cells was marginal, and nothing ever really got organized. The short-lived nature of the storms (mostly one-cell and done) was also a factor in minimal lightning production.

        1. Yep, agree with this too. In the right environment high bases can be supportive of severe… but not usually in the Northeast.

          1. I was watching that unfold in front of my eyes on I-95 yesterday. High-based, struggling storms coming down from the NW, outflow boundary was there but looked anemic, also high based, and popped one quick cell that never produced any CG lightning. I have some of this on a long time lapse from my dash cam as I was driving south on the highway. It wasn’t even worth chasing anything. But the clouds were cool!

  6. Many thanks TK and WxWatcher. I appreciate the input.

    Oh well, at least some of the previous days actually
    over performed. Win some, lose some. That’s life. 🙂

    1. Somebody quoted a post from a non-meteorologist-run social media page (not sure which page and I don’t think I want to see it either), “So, Laura just turned into Katrina.” Misrepresentation of a storm. Their followers now think New Orleans is in trouble. This is yet another example of what I talk about here over and over, and I’m spot on about it.

      Laura should be focused on for what this particular storm is doing, and is expected to do, where it is going. It’s not Katrina, it’s Laura. At least NHC knows that. Comparisons are ok, but unless they are valid comparisons, they take away from the message.

  8. So we have Laura, a dangerous hurricane, as expected. The mets here have noted the atrocities of the models in predicting these things in the Gulf. Stronger, further west. This is what we have.

    The good news, other than this the Atlantic is entering another period of quiet, despite many outlets screaming horror about the peak of the season rapidly approaching. Yes, it is rapidly approaching, and we’re far from “out of the woods”, given climatology. But how many disturbances in the Atlantic are being monitored for development right now? Answer: ZERO. One factor: MJO moving out of favorable phases and about to become negligible – extremely weak. Also, root for more TUTT’s. They have been a factor as well in keeping Cape Verde disturbances from doing all that much. That is, the “parade of hurricanes heading for Florida” as spoken of on some really bad headlines is not really a thing right now, is it…

    But we do need to focus on Laura. That’s the greatest immediate concern. I’m not taking anything away from what IS while talking about what we’re looking at beyond this.

    1. I must admit, you caught me on TUTT. In case it caught others,
      here it is:

      A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), also known as the mid-oceanic trough,[1] is a trough situated in upper-level (at about 200 hPa) tropics. Its formation is usually caused by the intrusion of energy and wind from the mid-latitudes into the tropics. It can also develop from the inverted trough adjacent to an upper level anticyclone. TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in the sense that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. When strong, they can present a significant vertical wind shear to the tropics and subdue tropical cyclogenesis. When upper cold lows break off from their base, they tend to retrograde and force the development, or enhance, surface troughs and tropical waves to their east. Under special circumstances, they can induce thunderstorm activity and lead to the formation of tropical cyclones.

      1. Of course in my satellite & radar meteorology class in college, these got nicknamed King TUTTs. 😉

        You see, Mr. Dave, there are a lot of fake weather pages out there that have been calling for basically the “worst season ever” with “parades of storms” because of La Nina (which isn’t here yet) and warm ocean water. But they never mentioned anything about infusions of Saharan dust or TUTT persistence, or even other factors I won’t get into because they are even more complex and usually just referred to as “limiting factors” for the sake of ease. I dunno, maybe there’s a need for actual meteorologists after all. 😉 … Anyway I’ve ranted on that enough for now. I’m going to focus on Laura and our local weather now. 🙂 Those pages will always have their blind followers putting their owners on pedestals and claiming them to be “better than the professionals” because they’ve been duped, and that’s their own damn fault. 😉

  9. re: Laura

    My brother resides in Lafayette, Louisiana.

    I think he is just far enough inland and East to be spared
    the brunt, but he is still going to take quite a blow.
    They are hunkered down and ready.

  11. Eric Fisher tweet for tomorrow
    Here at home, a significant risk of severe weather tomorrow with a setup pretty ripe for tornadoes, especially toward WMass/CT but may allow rotating storms to survive east.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    While today’s wonderfully invigorating, fresh Canadian (mostly Covid-free, therefore) air will be short-lived, it won’t be long before most of our days are like this. I simply can’t wait at this point. It’s been the toughest summer for many (myself and my struggling business included) in a long time. Hopefully, autumn will point towards a better period ahead.

  16. TK/WxW…Regarding yesterday’s non-thunderstorm activity, my first thought were the mid-late morning cloudiness that arrived from NYS.

    Did this contribute as well to keep significant heating in our area later on?

    2. it may have been a slight factor but I don’t think it would have made a whole lot of difference had those clouds not been there.

  17. Current look at Laura

    https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES16&initsattype=ir&initcscheme=ir1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=764&initrange=30.750000000000:-98.500000000000:22.250000000000:-84.500000000000&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightning16=On&initlightning17=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=On&initascata=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatamba=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off

  18. From the NHC, Laura now forecast to become a strong
    Cat 4.

    Laura is expected to bean extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Gulf coast.

    INIT 26/1500Z 27.0N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
    12H 27/0000Z 28.5N 93.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
    24H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    36H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
    48H 28/1200Z 35.8N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
    60H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
    72H 29/1200Z 37.6N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
    96H 30/1200Z 40.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 31/1200Z 48.0N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

  20. NWS Zone Forecast for West Cameron Parish in Louisiana. The tonight part is especially interesting:

    LAZ073-262215-
    West Cameron-
    Including the cities of Hackberry and Johnson Bayou
    457 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

    …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT…
    …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
    THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING…

    .TODAY… Tropical storm conditions expected with hurricane
    conditions possible. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
    .TONIGHT… Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the upper 70s. Northeast winds 20 to 95 mph shifting to the west 25 to 90 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 120 mph increasing to 115 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

  22. I saw a comment somewhere on social media earlier that I’ll paraphrase: “Imagine if hurricane marco had merged with this. it would be twice as strong, what’s that a category 8?”

    I wanted to reply with “Yes, a category 8 with a 40 foot storm surge reaching 60 miles inland..” But I didn’t. I just kept right on going.

    I tried to convince myself that the comment was a joke before I started hitting my head off my desk. 😉

      1. On a serious note, I saw your Comment on your wife’s family and will keep them in my prayers. My BIL txtd this am to say they had been in green all night so were able to keep windows open.

  23. Thank you TK, SAK, and WxWatcher for your views on both Laura and our possible severe weather Tomorrow. Let’s hope that the eye wall replacement cycle happens just before landfall because that looks like the only obstacle Laura has to over come between now and landfall. However at this strength it would only marginally help unfortunately. Hope everyone is taking this seriously.

  24. Laura is now a Category 4 hurricane. In the words of the NHC, an “unsurvivable” storm surge is en route to portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana, in addition to potentially catastrophic wind damage. There are many times and places for measured and tuned-down language, but this is not one. A natural catastrophe is unfolding in the Gulf of Mexico.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. Thanks WXW

      I felt sick to my stomach as I read that earlier. I did some more reading. Sea Rim park and intercoastal city are both 13 ft above sea level. They are 204ish miles apart. One heck of a long area with some parks and other more inhabited areas.

      I recall a tall stick in Old Towne SC that measured Hugo’s surge in that spot at just over 13 ft. I just stood there trying to imagine but could not. For anyone interested, the link below has highest storm surges recorded.

      https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Michael-Brought-Water-Levels-Over-20-High-Coast

      Also, thanks for updating on tomorrow. My oldest teaches so her kids would be alone. I’ll plan to head over must in case of severe weather. I hate to bug you but if you see this and have a chance, is there a rough time frame for this area?

      1. Thanks Vicki! Yes, it is a sobering situation.

        For the severe tomorrow, probably 3-7PM would be your peak window if storms are able to make it that far east.

  25. Closer to home… I’m surprised to see so little buzz on the severe threat tomorrow, though Laura is obviously overshadowing a lot right now. The SPC outlook still looks pretty good to me, though as SAK has suggested the threat may not extend quite as far north as they indicate. There will be a sharp cutoff. But it’s a potent setup, and the SPC is advising of not only severe weather, but “significant severe” (delineated by the hatched region in the wind and hail tabs on the outlook), which is defined as wind gusts over 65 kt, 2 inch diameter hail, or EF2+ tornadoes. In particular, large hail and wind damage appear possible, though I wouldn’t rule out a strong tornado as well.

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

        1. I will be in; the worst of it will likely stay north of us but we’ll certainly be on alert as it may spill down into our area also.

  26. WxWatcher I am paying attention to this severe weather potential closely tomorrow. I appreciate your comments on this potential. I would expect to be under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch tomorrow afternoon.

    1. You were my first thought earlier today as you are in the forecast area, JJ. Hoping all will be well

  27. From Eric Fisher for tomorrow
    On alert for high-end severe weather tomorrow:
    WMass, CT, RI

    Watching for *chance*:
    Central & SE Mass

    Unlikely:
    Boston to NE Mass and NH

    1. From Eric for Laura as well. I truly enjoy him. Now off to check Pete

      Comparing #Laura to Hurricane Rita in 2005. Rita was the last Cat 3+ to make landfall in Louisiana. It was a stronger hurricane at peak (180mph), but weaker at landfall (120mph) than Laura is expected to be. Rita produced at 15-foot storm surge and $25.2 billion in damage. #wbz

  28. Vicki thank you for your kind words. Looking at the latest NAM run my part of CT does get into the warm sector and that is when you have to watch out for this potential. If it stays just west of through the Hudson River Valley that would be bad for those people but better for those who are in western CT.

  29. From Pete

    Dear heavens. 30 miles ESTIMATE

    One of the many dangers to a catastrophic hurricane like Laura is the storm surge. Here’s a look from the Nat’l Hurricane Center at how far the ocean water may push inland…estimates are up to 30 miles. Incredible.

    Interesting map layer below

    https://i.imgur.com/8hars8Y.jpg

  32. Laura looks scary bad. NHC now says it should landfall with 150 mph winds! Insane over all of that lowland. I can’t imagine.

  33. Tweet on Hurricane Laura from Levi Cowan
    New recon aircraft is measuring surface winds of 150-155 mph in the northeastern eyewall of Hurricane #Laura, very close to Category 5 intensity.

  34. This feel like Hurricane Michael situation where it intensified into a category 5 prior to hitting the Florida panhandle. Joe Furey at meteorologist here in CT was saying yesterday he would not be surprised if Laura became a category 4 or 5 storm.

  36. My juices are flowing watching Laura and this potential high end severe weather event for my area tomorrow.

    1. Agree. I’ve been stressing for a few days now. I’m hoping focus here tomorrow will be on this with information on evacuations etc

    1. Andrew was one of those. I don’t know if you’ve ever seen the video by one of the TV mets taken from his home during that. Chilling. It’s probably on YouTube.

      2. Somewhere I have the video from Bryan Norcross. Their station was the only one in Miami that stayed on the air all night during Andrew. They put the entire broadcast on VHS and sold it to help with the relief efforts. I had a friend in Miami at the time and he bought it for me and brought it home for Christmas that year.

        1. That’s right. It was him. I don’t think I have a copy of that video but I have seen it.

  39. Gosh Jean and Scott77. I just saw your comments from last night. I’m sorry. I will keep your families in prayer. Big hugs to you both

    2. Thanks Vicki. With the exception of the air quality my brother and his in-laws have been relatively unscathed thankfully. Really appreciate your prayers. Same goes to your family out there as well!

  40. We have landfall near Cameron, LA

    Calcasieu Pass, LA reported sustained winds of 94 mph with a gust to 127 mph and a 10.5 foot storm surge just minutes before getting into the eye. The temperature spiked from 77 to 82 in just 10 minutes as they got into the eye.

  41. https://images.search.yahoo.com/images/view;_ylt=AwrExo7yUkdfKBUAPxaInIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTIzaXNzdmRqBHNlYwNzcgRzbGsDaW1nBG9pZAM5MWZiZjdmZGJmODI3NjNjZmJjODNmZmY2YTlhYjhkZgRncG9zAzE0BGl0A2Jpbmc-?back=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.search.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%2Fimages%3Fp%3Dcalcasieu%2Bpass%252C%2Bla%26fr%3Diphone%26fr2%3Dpiv-web%26tab%3Dorganic%26ri%3D14&w=662&h=428&imgurl=images.marinas.com%2Fmed_res_id%2F47998&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fmarinas.com%2Fview%2Finlet%2F1089_Calcasieu_Pass_Inlet_LA_United_States&size=177.5KB&p=calcasieu+pass%2C+la&oid=91fbf7fdbf82763cfbc83fff6a9ab8df&fr2=piv-web&fr=iphone&tt=Calcasieu+Pass+Inlet%2C+%2C+Louisiana%2C&b=0&ni=21&no=14&ts=&tab=organic&sigr=zxzCPM9sSY4X&sigb=irgunaeDrUh4&sigi=4U1sgKVEn22w&sigt=N93LhXUFxrn8&.crumb=Eu5lgZBYR6J&fr=iphone&fr2=piv-web

    Calcasieu pass inlet

  42. Sustained winds of 98 mph with a gust to 134 mph on the ASOS at Lake Charles, LA. A personal wx station nearby had sustained 101 with a gust to 137.

    1. I turned on TWC for a short time. I could only take them for 20 minutes. There was pretty much no information given about the storm itself, just going between 3 people, 2 out in the storm (1 of which was in a dangerous place setting a terrible example), and one back at a desk who could not even adequately explain what the eye wall of a hurricane was. FOUR times he said the same thing: “It’s not thin like paper, it has some thickness to it like the walls of a building.” Not once did he actually give the viewers the definition of an eye wall. I had to shut them off after 20 minutes. Horrendous coverage.

      Also, they were still saying landfall was imminent and had not occurred yet, while Cameron was sitting in the middle of the eye. I really don’t get them.

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