Thursday August 27 2020 Forecast (8:38AM)

159 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

Discussion…

The last 5 days of August and Meteorological Summer will be marked by some changing weather. We first have an unsettled day today with a warm front moving into, but not fully through, the region. In fact, the front itself may never make all that much progress even into the WHW forecast area. This will be good news, as it will prevent the region from getting severe weather, which is a danger in the warm air mass just to the southwest of the front as a disturbance arrives and passes through the region from northwest to southeast later today. Worth monitoring for this area anyway, but I think we’re just in for some showers and maybe embedded thunder. Even the rainfall production from this event should be non-beneficial, in terms of chopping into the drought. Weak high pressure brings nicer weather for Friday. Then it’s back to unsettled weather again as a disturbance moves through, warm front passing by around dawn, cold front in the evening. This may allow several rain-free hours at any given location, but cannot rule out pop up showers / storms at any time either. Tropical moisture from the remains of Laura will probably be involved, somewhat, with the cold front, but the bulk of those remains will likely miss this area to the south. High pressure builds back in with rapidly improving weather by Sunday and glorious late summer weather to end the month of August on Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind E to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind variable to SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

High pressure builds offshore and remains mostly in place while frontal systems from the west try to push into the region. Much of this period is likely to be rain-free with above normal temperatures. Best shower opportunities around September 2 and 5.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

The general patterns should feature high pressure in control most of the time aloft with weak frontal systems trying to push through, resulting in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

159 thoughts on “Thursday August 27 2020 Forecast (8:38AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.
    I am watching that warm front closely. If it gets into central CT then look out for my area which the potential for some big thunderstorms.

    1. Wow! Thanks

      My Brother is in Lafayette, LA, about 75 miles East of Lake Charles and he was unscathed. I checked the obs for Lafayette
      and best I saw were winds gusting to about 55 MPH, but that
      might have been a bit pas peak for them. I check in with him’this morning and all is fine at his house.

      Something good today. 🙂

  5. Thank you Vicki for posting the link. It’s all about that warm front. If I stay on the more stable side as all of you will be in up there then the severe weather drops big time. It is not just radar watching today. It is also watch the warm front today.
    No change with the latest SPC outlook.

  8. The idea of scaling the severe threat back is the correct one. Never thought it was going to be much of a threat very far north and east anyway. All about the front’s position to begin with. I see some others are backing off a bit now as well.

    Since the extreme majority of our New England hurricanes are moving almost due north, or slightly off due north, when they impact this area, the South Coast is your best comparison / explanation location, but fitted to the make up of the relationship between the ocean and coast here, as well as our own topography. Even if a top end category 4 moving westward made landfall near Boston, the water would not make it to the northwestern surburbs.

    New England & the Gulf Coast are apples vs. oranges. New England, is of course, the apples, while the Gulf Coast is the citrus. 😉

    1. I’m glad to see the threat – at least for my area – diminishing. I pray it does for JJ also. A good run of the mill thunderstorm would be nice for him though. With two grands on their own, I was making plans to get to them somehow even though I cannot go into their house. I am keeping an eye on tweets from both Eric and Pete.

      It was one of those grands that I also shared Pete’s storm surge image with. She’s the one I mention frequently as being fascinated by weather. I sure hope folks took the time to read Pete’s intro and understand he never intended to compare NE to the gulf coast. My 10 year old grand did and judging by comments on his post all but two also did. Great teaching moment and Pete seized it. But then that is Pete.

  9. The more I look at things this morning, the more I feel that we will just have a few severe cells somewhere in far southwestern MA and parts of CT to deal with. The meat of that severe weather situation will occur southwest of there.. We’ve been pointing out the frontal position probably being preventative for a good part of the area. Looks like that is going to verify. Will continue to monitor. I’ll be on the road shortly after noon today not far away from the border of the possible severe weather, so I am leaving myself an option to go after it if it’s close enough. Thing is, any of those storms are going to be moving right along. Nothing hanging around with this event. It’s going to be quick, and gone.

    1. As SAK pointed out the other day, and I agreed…
      Show me the push to get that warm front through a good portion of SNE. It’s not there. A little pull as the disturbance approaches, then it slides right back to the south.

      This will be a non-event for most of the region. Different story for parts of NY, eastern PA, and perhaps parts of NJ. We’ll see if anything can get into far southwestern New England…

  11. First influx of warm frontal rain fell apart in the dry air, as expected. Some guidance was showing “a rainy day” for this area for today as recently as last night. Never bought it. Not happening. Showers, yes. A rainy day, no.

  12. Beware A LOT of fake pics and videos on Twitter / etc. being passed off as Hurricane Laura. The most shared one right now is a gust front / shelf cloud from a Florida thunderstorm a few years ago being passed off as Laura reaching the coast, FROM inland, not from water, in BROAD DAYLIGHT. Gee, at least do your homework if you’re going to try to pass something off as legit!

    So, do your research before you share anything.

  13. Holy smokes. Kevin L. from 25 went after TWC a bit on Twitter, and I agree with him. They put one of their reporters in a really bad place including having to run through flying glass shards. What kind of example are you setting when you put reporters in the path of a very dangerous storm that everybody has evacuated for? And we wonder why “chasers” (read, uneducated thrill seekers) are calling 911 because they are already trapped, before the worst of the storm even arrives. Yes, it’s a big problem.

    I’m all for setting up “temporary” web or media cams, and if they survive they survive, if not, oh well. Much safer than putting people out there in a storm that serious.

      1. I used to adore that channel. I go back and watch YouTube videos once in a while to relieve the “old days” of TWC.

        “There has likely never been a hurricane warning issued in Shrevport LA, at least from what we believe, but we’ll have to look back in the record books, but we believe this is a first here, due to Hurricane Laura.” The guy that just said that is also calling wind gusts to 50 MPH “intense, damaging wind”, while he’s standing outside in them. I can tell you right now, they are not 50 MPH, and the white caps on the river he’s referring to are mainly due to the water flowing down the river, not the wind.

        So far, btw, the top wind gusts I have seen is 134 MPH from Lake Charles. #2 on the list is 127 MPH from Cameron. Every other top gust report so far that I have seen is under 100 MPH. I’m pretty sure this storm underwent some significant and somewhat undetected weakening in the last 2 hours before landfall. Watching the dry air get sucked into the middle of the hurricane via radar loop was tell-tale. It did NOT have a donut eye wall at all.

  14. I have been monitoring the progress of the warm front
    by observing the data from Meso West that is mostly updated
    every 5 minutes or so.

    I am looking at wind direction and dew point.

    It ain’t budging

      1. Yes, about 1000 times from you and sak.

        I am just CONFIRMING that you were both correct
        all along. 🙂 🙂

  15. Latest advisory has Laura at 75 MPH. Probably already a TS though. Most of the observations in the circulation have winds up to but not over 50 MPH in gusts.

    Going to see if I can gather some top wind gust info and inland extent of storm surge. My educated guess is that both of these are going to be somewhat, and possibly significantly, less than forecast.

    Another “good news” aspect of the storm is its rapid movement minimized flooding. You don’t have it sitting, like a Harvey, dumping intense rain on the same areas for hours on end. This is a much different animal. Also again, to reiterate, this was a relatively small hurricane, so its coverage area was not vast.

    1. How true. I can confirm from my Brothers experience
      only 75 miles of the center when it passed his latitude
      in Lafayette.

    2. I still see several wind gusts over 50 mph. KSHV is reporting North winds at 33 mph gusting to 66 mph right now, and there’s a gust to 70 at Gum Springs, near Natchitoches. For sustained winds, I only see ones to tropical storm strength, but there’s actually very few obs in that part of Louisiana outside of Shreveport, so it is a little tough to tell.

  16. Saw someone on Twitter last night referring to gust to 134 mph at Lake Charles and said “this is likely a record for the strongest wind gust ever observed in the US during a hurricane!”

    There’s a little observatory on a hill in the WHW forecast area that is famous for a gust to 186 mph during the 1938 hurricane. Also, during Andrew, NHC measured a wind gust to 164 mph right as the radar dome blew off the roof of their building.

    Yes, 134 mph is amazing and frightening (and it destroyed the radar in Lake Charles), but it’s not even close to a record. Goes with the theme TK mentioned of people not bothering to do any research.

  17. A little misrepresentation with the new headline on TWC that says “Strongest landfall in Louisiana in 164 years”. Well, if you go by the last advisory, saying sustained winds of 150 MPH, then yes. If you go by observations and impact, then absolutely no. Just go back to Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which made landfall there is a category 4 (although by advisory numbers, weaker than Laura, even though it was probably actually stronger). What was the impact from Betsy? It was far worse, because the storm surge got New Orleans, and cause a failure of the levee system there. Debates about Laura’s actual strength aside, they got lucky because it was further west and small in size. We have avoided a couple worst-case scenarios by having this hurricane reach the coast east of one of one of the biggest metro areas of Texas and west of the biggest metro area of Louisiana. Bad where it was, yes, but far less impactful than this could have been.

    I have my serious doubts that Laura was still a high end CAT 4 when it made landfall. I think it had been weakening significantly the last 2 hours of its trip to the coast. While still a very formidable hurricane, the observations and the radar loop tell me it was no longer a 150 MPH high end cat 4. But I guess it doesn’t much matter anyway. Just little details not to take away from it being a major storm.

  18. Thanks TK.

    I have plenty of thoughts on Laura and have some agreements and disagreements with the conjecture here. But I will save them most likely for tomorrow.

    The best severe risk today will probably be right in between the primary WHW forecast area and my coverage zone down here. Metro Boston and points nearby should very likely be in the clear. But I continue to expect a very busy afternoon/evening especially over portions of western MA, NY, and CT. All severe hazards remain possible there.

  20. I’m watching a storm chaser drive (shared by a mutual friend) through Lake Charles now. The chaser who is actually seeing the destruction First hand commented that the damage exceeded any perceived hype. The place is a mess. You can literally feel the sadness in his voice

    All of that said…..hundreds and hundreds of people have been seriously impacted. Numbers are no longer the focus Or sure as hell shouldn’t be. They don’t matter to the many struggling right now. Compassion is what matters. There is much suffering in many areas of our country. Perhaps here, where it is understood how tragically weather can impact people, the focus could turn to those impacted.

  21. Heading into western CT now for a meeting this PM in Brookfield. Sunny warm and humid here. Clearly have gotten behind the front into the warm sector.

  22. Ok shifting into monitor mode here regionally for this afternoon’s activity. I happen to be on my way south to meet a friend of mine. If the activity is far enough east in CT, may chase there. 50/50 shot. This was not originally planned as a potential chase, so if that happens it will be a bonus.

    I love Tim Kelly’s weathercasts. He was doing a nice relativity comparison with weather, and noting that somewhere in New England had 100 MPH winds yesterday, and that was the summit of Mt. Washington, with an air temperature of 29F. BRR! A taste of autumn for most of us, a taste of winter there yesterday! Also, T.K. (Tim, not me) thinks that the temp at Boston may drop into the upper 50s for a while later today especially if some rain comes through the city. I agree with him.

    1. Looks like I picked the right day to head to the beach with Nate for his birthday. We will be there tomorrow (Friday). His bday was yesterday. Looks like a very nice beach day. Going to the NH Seacoast.

  25. Well hurricane Laura gives you another example of why green tech is better than the oil and gas. There are reports of large fires going on along some of the oil and gas refineries in the area. The one getting the most attention is one of the refineries in Lake Charles. They put it as a chemical fire.
    In more positive news the storm surge was not as bad as they were thinking and the worst of it went into the wetlands of the region. This shows you the importance of wetlands when combating these storms. Would have been even worst if these areas were developed and there was less wetland.

    1. The wetlands indeed make a big difference versus development. A lot of our damage and in many cases loss of life with weather events are because of development in vulnerable areas.

      I remember having to give updates to our clients regarding storm impacts on those refineries. Can be a big problem in the Gulf and those shoreline areas when the storms are around.

    2. To be fair, we don’t know yet if the storm surge wasn’t as bad as expected. As a colleague of TK and myself said on Facebook – the worst of it (just east of the eye) went into an area that there are very few people or measurements. Calcasieu Pass had over 10 feet, but the eye went right over them. Had the track been just 10 miles farther west, that 10 feet could have been 20 feet, and that also would have had major implications for Lake Charles as well, as winds in both places would have been southeast or south, instead of east. That would have produce a lot more damage in Lake Charles as well.

      1. Great points.

        We will have to see what things look like once they can get a look most likely from above given the location.

  26. Steady rain coming down now. Looks like plenty more coming when looking radar. The lawn is happy!

  28. It is humid and I am for sure in the warm sector with a tornado watch up for my area until 7pm.

  29. Ryan Hanrahan with great tweets as always on this severe weather potential. I am in the area to be on the lookout
    Here are his tweets
    Environment is primed for severe storms and tornadoes. High effective storm relative helicity (over 400 m2/s2) and increasing instability (CAPE >1000 j/kg) is supportive of rotating thunderstorms. Line near Albany is showing signs of strengthening.

    Looks like the main severe weather threat is developing from Hartford on south and west… including New Haven.

    1. JJ As I know you see …that NY line is traveling SE. I can’t tell if headed Right for you

      It is pouring water here and the sky is that eerie yellow. Lights on my deck tripped on

  32. Vicki I am looking at that cluster in upstate NY. There is a tornado warning in that cluster and it is moving southeast. I just noticed that severe thunderstorm warning you mentioned well away from the tornado watch box.
    Stepping outside big difference in the feel from yesterday.

    2. JpDave anything near that line is the area to watch and already seeing warnings in storms in NY State moving southeast getting close to I-87. Will see if they hold up as they move into CT.

    3. Much of southern RI and the South Coast of MA has southerly winds and temperatures in the 70s. The warm front is actually right along and just south of Route 44 from Hartford all the way to just south of Plymouth.

      That Surface Analysis was from 15z – 11am.

  34. Nice steady rain in Back Bay.

    Though not drought-busting by any means – today’s rain and that of a few days ago – they will help to `save’ our foliage season. The trees really needed some water. They’re getting some this week.

    2. Laura should be a big help as well. Hopefully those weekly drought monitor maps change considerably.

      1. Not likely. The bulk of Laura’s moisture probably stays south of us. Some of it may enhance the rain along the south coast, but that’s about it.

  36. I am paying close attention to that line. There is a tornado warning up for that area up until 245. Will see if NWS Albany puts up a new tornado warning.

  37. Driving back home through Waterbury CT now. Still sunny warm and humid here. I am not far from JJ at the moment. I am tempted to pull over and wait. Looks like this area is about to get clocked!

  38. Mark that line moving southeast looks nasty at the moment. Currently no tornado warnings are up. Ryan Hanrahan tweeted Hartford points south and west.

  39. The storm near Pine Plains NY looks like it is trying to develop a hook. In fact they just issued a tornado warning for western parts of Litchfield County.

  41. Vicki it is going to be a close call for my town. Currently the tornado warning is not up for my part of Litchfield County. I just heard wall clouds have been reported with that storm in NY.

  42. I am home watching the television. Where this storm is heading is Sharon, CT and Sharon had a tornado earlier this month.

  43. Mark is the town over from me in Waterbury right now in his car.
    Even if there is no tornado this is still a nasty thunderstorm.

  45. We kept driving as much as I wanted to hang out. I’m in Farmington now and it’s dark and raining. Car temp still at 82.

    1. Thank you Mark. It is 62 in Sutton but I don’t believe we hit 70 today. We dropped about 6 degrees with line that went through

  47. Sitting in traffic now approaching Hartford. Raining heavily with nasty dark low gray clouds overhead. Car temp has plummeted to 69.

  50. Currently 82 at HFD with a light SW Wind
    Currently 63 at BDL with a moderate NNE Wind.

    Pretty easy to find the warm front in the Hartford area.

    75 with a light SSE on the south side of Providence
    65 with calm winds in downtown Providence.

    Pretty easy there too.

    1. Me too. My guess is he is or he’d be posting. Lots of prayers going up for him and all along that area

  67. JJ You can come out now. Hope you had no damage around, because even if you didn’t have a tornado, the winds
    were ferocious.

  68. Thankfully nothing happened. Had a some lightning heavy rain and gusty winds but thankfully no tornado and no damage from winds.

  71. Eric Fisher already looking ahead to Saturday with this tweet.
    We’ll have some more “fun” to track Saturday AM as another warm front lifts north with tropical moisture behind it and an increasing LLJ. Would bring a possible chance of rotating storms.

  72. Greetings from Wakefield Nh . Sunny & cool conditions here should be a fantastic night for sleeping . Hit quite a bit of rain on the way up .

  73. Unofficial report of a 92mph wind gust in North Haven CT . It looked like the rotation was trying to tighten in that area where there was a tornado warning.

  74. JpDave there was a brief debris signature in the North Haven, CT area. Branford, CT clobbered with a report of almost the whole town without power and they were in the path of that tornado warned storm. Waterbury 10% without power and was looking a photos of tree damage and the Hop Brook Golf Course in Naugatuck, CT had some damage. When I see what happened in Waterbury and Naugatuck places that are close to me I am breathing a big sigh of relief.

  75. When I stepped out and felt that humidity with the sun out this afternoon I said to myself this is not good. I was a little nervous watching that line come down from the northwest.

  77. I also just heard an unofficial report of a 100 mph+ wind observation in Branford. Unofficial but entirely possible if a tornado touched down there. Lots of damage and outages there.

  78. Mark it was from that storm we were watching that came out of Delaware County NY and tracked southeast. This storm really got going Prospect Naugatuck and we could see by the photos clobbered North Haven Hamden Branford.

  80. I suspect much if not all of the CT wind damage is straight line, but radar certainly suggested the potential for some 80-100mph gusts. This is not surprising given the environment and a big reason I was concerned about today.

  81. JJ and Mark. I am more than thankful that you are both ok. Positive thoughts to all in the path of the storms today.

    1. I echo Vicki’s thoughts/sentiments.

      Severe storms can be `fun’ to follow and watch, but they can also be very dangerous.

      Glad to know Mark and JJ are okay.

  84. Thanks TK !

    Hope everyone is doing well in CT with the severe weather today.

    https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8767816

    Here is the lake Charles, LA tide gusts.

    About midway down is the graph of the tide.

    Initially, as the eye approached, with an east wind component, the water got blown out at Lake Charles, where at 1 point, the tide should have measured 1 ft and the water level was -0.55ft.

    As the eye approached and the wind direction change, in 3 hrs and 12 minutes, the tide depth went from -0.55ft to 6.02ft., which was a 4.5 ft storm surge and a change of 6.57 ft in 3 hrs.

  86. Pretty amazing, Calcasieu Pass (Inlet) is very narrow for perhaps a mile, which connects to a fairly sizable Calcasieu Lake, that then narrows again until reaching Lake Charles lake, in Lake Charles, LA, some 30 miles inlet.

    The Inlet experienced a 10 ft storm surge and given the very low land, I wonder how far inland the ocean temporarily covered.

    That 10 ft surge made its way 30 miles inland to become a 4.5 ft surge in Lake Charles and a 6.5ft rise as described in my previous post.

    True hurricane storm surges must be a scary experience to be trapped by.

  87. Tom Bethany is about 20 minutes from and Hamden is about 30 minutes from me. As I said earlier I am breathing a sigh of relief that all that happened here was some gusty winds, briefly heavy rain, and lightning. Thankfully no damage. If you look at the video I posted from Waterbury a little while ago that is what it looked like outside my window when the storm arrived.

  88. No damage where I was but some areas of Waterbury got hit hard. At one point 10% of Waterbury was without power. The hardest hit towns look be Hamden, North Haven, and Branford.

  89. I´m sure the residents in southern LA are more acclimated to the heat …..

    The next 2 night´s low temps in Lake Charles are predicted to be 78F. Highs generally in the low 90s.

    I hope that won´t take a toll in the next few days, assuming the majority of folks are without power.

  91. High temp at Logan today = 66F

    Lowest = 60F (1:40 p.m.)

    Rain = 0.18

    Clearly the coolest, cloudiest, gloomiest day of the entire summer.

    1. Several days in the 1st half of June were cooler, and there were a few cool days in June that were just as wet or wetter.

  92. New weather post…

    Today is one of those “weather guy takes advantage” beach days. People get up, see clouds, cancel their beach day, weather guy drives to beach, has 500 parking spaces to choose from and no wait for breakfast, then a really nice beach day with a sun/cloud mix mild humid air, and warm ocean water. Done it many times. 😉

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