Friday August 28 2020 Forecast (7:52AM)

49 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28- SEPTEMBER 1)

Discussion…

Yesterday’s event went as expected – biggest storms southwest of the WHW area, so thankfully this region escaped the severe weather while still receiving some needed rainfall. No rainfall today, but it may start gloomy looking as some low level moisture remains in place, but clouds will break for at least partial sun as the morning goes on and it turns into a pretty nice day overall, under the influence of weak high pressure. Although high clouds will also start to stream in ahead of a warm front, which will be moving through the region tomorrow morning, followed by a cold front late in the day, parented from a jet stream disturbance passing to our north. Moisture from the remains of Laura will be somewhat involved in this, but as I have been indicating, the majority of this will pass south of our region. High pressure approaches from the west Sunday, which will be a breezy day between it and the departing low to the east. High pressure settles right over the region for a wonderful final day of August. September gets underway Tuesday and some cloudiness will advance ahead of a warm front, which may result in showers arriving in the region before day’s end.

Details…

TODAY: Variably cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind E to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely, favoring the morning hours. Chance of thunderstorms, favoring late-day. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind variable to SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: A shower or thunderstorm early, followed by clearing. Patchy fog evening. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers late-day. Highs 70-77,. Dew point 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure builds offshore and remains mostly in place while frontal systems from the west try to push into the region. Much of this period is likely to be rain-free with above normal temperatures. Best shower opportunities early September 2, late September 4, and September 6.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Fair, slightly cooler September 7-8. Warming up, minimal shower threat thereafter.

49 thoughts on “Friday August 28 2020 Forecast (7:52AM)”

  6. Will see what that update says. Thankfully the setup is not what it was yesterday where there were towns in CT that got hit hard by that possible tornado.

  8. That town was under a tornado warning at the time of that dash cam video. Ryan Hanrahan last night thought the damage in Branford was straight line wind damage but felt confident a tornado did hit Bethany and Hamden. NWS Upton NY will be out there surveying the damage today. If it is confirmed a tornado hit Bethany and Hamden that would be the second time in three years a tornado hit those towns. The other was May 15, 2018.

  9. Quick peak at the SREF for Saturday afternoon at 18z (2pm) most of SNE in the low risk but a pocket in northeastern CT and the Worcester area in what I like to call an elevated tornado risk when you see the number 15. It still shows the lost risk at 21z (5pm) for all of SNE.

  10. You’re welcome to the thank yous. 🙂

    We are just a few months away from WHW being double digits in age. 😉

  11. Thanks TK, happy Friday all!

    As promised, here are some “wrap-up” thoughts from me on recent events…

    *Yesterday’s severe weather: There were no surprises from what I can tell. As expected, it was among the most favorable Northeast US severe environments in years and produced significant severe weather. I was watching it all unfold from work as it was pretty quiet down my way while the stuff over CT was unfolding. At one point, I was sure that North Haven supercell was going to wrap up and drop a strong tornado. Thankfully, and I’m not entirely sure why, it never quite did it. It may have produced a tornado at some point, and the straight line wind damage was tremendous, but for several minutes I was really fearing a long tracked EF2+ tornado over a heavily populated area. There were plenty of other very impressive storms yesterday too. EML’s and warm fronts, two things you never wanna mess with.

    *Laura… There’s plenty I could say, but I’ll try to keep it pretty brief. I’m so proud of the state of the science of meteorology. The NHC has made many great forecasts over the years, but their track forecast for Laura may be the best. You can argue they should’ve better anticipated the rapid intensification in the Gulf, but given uncertainty as to what Cuba would do to Laura, it would’ve been risky to forecast a Cat 3-4 storm in the early going. Ultimately, the messaging was perfectly on point even if the intensity forecast biased too low. And that messaging goes well beyond the NHC, to the entire weather enterprise which came together to save many lives from this storm.

    It was very fortunate Laura came ashore where it did. While no doubt producing catastrophic wind damage near Lake Charles, it tracked in such a way that the highest surge did not impact a populated area. I’m puzzled by how many normally credible meteorologists have called the surge forecast a bust. Do they not understand that we have no way to measure the peak surge over the uninhabited marshlands that it impacted, and that in reality we will never know exactly what the surge values were? But I can 100% guarantee you it was every bit as unsurvivable as the NHC advertised. Thankfully, no living souls had to see it. And there is satellite imagery that actually shows the Louisiana coastal areas under water. We still have a lot of work to do with learning how storm surge works especially in a case like this where it is affecting areas well inland. But this surge over a populated area would’ve been horrific.

    Hurricane season is far from over. I do tend to think, especially with the MJO leaving the more favorable phases, that the rest of the season will not be quite as active as some think. But a couple more major hurricanes are near certain. Watch ~9/10-9/17 for a possible threat to the East Coast.

    2. Haha…first of day of school is September 15! (Next storm is Nana!)

      Thanks as always, TK! Fantastic job this week, everyone!!!

      Enjoy this Friday!

        1. that storm, should it ever occur, should be named:
          HURRICANE
          Nana, Nana, bo-bana
          Banana-fana fo-fana
          Fee-fi-mo-mana
          Nana!

    3. WxW….excellent post…. Well reasoned and informative. Doesn’t get much better. The NWS is lucky to have you as part of its team. And I can see why you are where you are. Thank you

  13. WxW..
    All excellent points and info as usual. 🙂
    Thank you for taking the time to write it all!
    I completely agree about the location of maximum storm surge.

    1. Matt’s comments yesterday were excellent also. His last one sadly was lost in the concern for the severe threat through CT, etc.

    1. We came home from Humarock a day early. I seem to think this was Tom’s daughters famous “storm damage” comment. Sad that it still makes me laugh nine years later but was too clever not to appreciate

    2. Jimmy, your memory is impeccable as always. I remember it well, but not the specific date. You seem to always remember these events to the exact date.

  17. Philip the October Nor’easter came on October 29, 2011. Boston had just over an inch I believe from that storm. It was a different story in the interior of SNE. Heavy wet snow with leaves on the trees which is not a good combination and led to widespread power outages. Bradley International Airport had its biggest October snowfall on record with 12.3 inches of snow. A year later on the same date Sandy affected SNE.

    SPC Outlook for tomorrow. Low risk of a tornado for most of SNE.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

  18. My son’s outdoor bday fun tomorrow is rain or shine. Downpours will make it more fun, I think.

  19. Post from yesterday showing storm surge that Vicki was referring to.
    https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1299065107415207936
    Storm surge on satellite. many of those areas is wetland with low population areas. Storm surge damage will be less and not as bad due to the surge going into these wetland areas and not going into higher population areas. (PS I looked at the satellites and compared, its legit)

    With my other post when I was talking about the storm surge not being as bad, I was more referring to storm surge damage over how bad the height level of the storm surge. I was in no way trying to say that the storm surge forecast was a bust. Sorry for not being as clear as I could have been.

    matt
    AUGUST 27, 2020 AT 1:01 PM
    “……..In more positive news the storm surge was not as bad as they were thinking and the worst of it went into the wetlands of the region. This shows you the importance of wetlands when combating these storms. Would have been even worst if these areas were developed and there was less wetland.”

    1. No worries. I didn’t take it that way. I did see this comment yesterday and also replied yesterday. 🙂

  21. The 00z GFS is interesting. It has a system develop east of the Bahamas on September 8. It then develops, heads north and makes landfall near New Bedford as a Category 1 the morning of September 11, passing right over or just west of Boston then heads northward into southern Quebec where it rapidly weakens and becomes extratropical.

    I fully expect that the next run will not have this storm at all.

  22. Hello there, the latest installment of the Woods Hill Weather forecast blog has been posted, a full two minutes later than the one that was posted yesterday, but nevertheless is now available for your visual consumption for those who actually read it. 😉

    (Short version: new weather post!)

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