Saturday August 29 2020 Forecast (7:54AM)

93 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29- SEPTEMBER 2)

Discussion…

Low pressure tracks eastward passing north of our area today. Its warm front brings fairly widespread wet weather through the region during the morning hours in the form of showers and embedded thunder. The cold front trailing this will pass by this evening with an additional shower and thunderstorm threat, while many areas have at least a few hours of rain-free or minimal shower threat time during the afternoon, during which time the majority of the remnant moisture from Hurricane Laura passes to the south of the region, not adding any beneficial rainfall. You’ll notice a jump in the humidity today, easily the most humid day of this week, before drier air returns behind the departing system during Sunday. High pressure provides very nice weather for August’s final day Monday. September will get underway with a warm front / cold front combo trailing from another low passing north of the region Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure starts to build off the Atlantic Coast.

Details…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with widespread showers and possible thunderstorms as well as areas of fog this morning. Variably cloudy with a passing shower possible this afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 60s to around 70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning becoming SW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible during the evening, then clearing. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers by late-day. Highs 70-77,. Dew point 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure offshore will make frontal systems struggle to push through. Greatest chance for showers and possible thunderstorms September 4 & 6. Temperatures above normal but may cool back by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Fair, slightly cooler September 8. Warming up, more humidity, and a few opportunities for showers thereafter. We will be in a pattern that we’ll have to pay attention to any tropical activity in the western Atlantic.

93 thoughts on “Saturday August 29 2020 Forecast (7:54AM)”

  1. The South Coast & South Shore as well as CC & islands may get shafted on beneficial rain today. We’ll see.

    And that may bring up the question “what’s the difference between the South Coast & the South Shore?”

    Simple answer…

    South Coast is from the Cape Cod Canal westward.
    South Shore is from Boston southward to the Cape Cod Canal.

    But what about Cape Cod & the Islands? Those are simply “Cape Cod & The Islands”, with the islands sometimes being referred to by their actual names. 😉

    There, that will clear up any confusion. 😉

    1. Hmmm

      To me I think of South Coast meaning the true South coast
      of SNE, meaning the section of CT along Long Island Sound,
      the South coast of RI, like Point Judith, Narragansett and Newport, and then South coast of MA, like Fall River and New Bedford along with the Cape and Islands.

      Anywho, that’s how I see it. 🙂

      1. The South Coast also includes CT & RI, which was covered by my word “westward”. 🙂 But Massachusetts also has a South Coast.

      1. Me neither. But I’ve been asked about it numerous times, even by people who live in these regions, then to be told I’m wrong.. Which I’m not. 😉

    2. We’ll have to watch the cold front, and there may be a few severe storms head of it, but I think most of that will be outside of the WHW area. Worth watching though.

    1. NW flow often produces some of the most long-tracked tornadoes in New England. The set-up was there this time, although there was a very sharp line where it went from volatile conditions to benign. That was, as stated many times here, the warm front. Those on the warm side were in a very vulnerable position while those on the cool side were in a safety zone.

    1. Barely raining here. The axis is NW of me. It doesn’t seem to be moving much either. So I do think southeastern areas get somewhat shafted out of drought help unless something changes fairly quickly. The “steadiest” rainfall is only going to be around for about 3 more hours.

      As expected, the bulk of Laura’s remnant moisture is staying to the south, not fully linking up with either front that passes this area.

      1. My neighbor is having an immediate family only wedding outside in there back yard today I so hope it works out for them as covid canceled there big day .

        1. They’ll need a little luck but I’m optimistic.

          I have kind-of-outside stuff planned with my son for his bday today. But we already decided rain or shine. Only lightning threat would force us inside.

            1. His actual b-day was Wednesday. In a normal year we’d probably have gone up to Water Country, but we didn’t do that. He spent some virtual time with friends on his birthday and I took him to Hampton yesterday and we’re doing this stuff at home today.

              Wasn’t sure if Hampton would ever happen this summer, but I managed a quick trip by there on July 2, and during this stretch of days off I took I have been there 3 times (Aug 21, 25, 28). They have done a fabulous job up there this year with the set-up. All of my visits I have observed people in general following the safety guidelines. The stores & restaurants have been exceptional with set-up and service. You may have heard people say otherwise about that place. Yes, they had some problems when trouble makers tried to tag along with a couple protests they had, and a couple other rowdy nights, prompting them to shut the beach down at 8PM for the balance of the summer, but any other horror stories are exaggerated or just lies. They’ve done a great job.

  6. Need help on timing. At approximately what time will the bulk of the rain be shutting down in Boston itself … is 3 PM and after “safe?”

    1. 3PM and after is relatively safe, but not absent of the chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Boston’s “steadiest” rainfall will probably be in the 11AM hour, maybe lingering a bit into the noon hour.

  7. Hey SSK, you said you caught a small bass. What do you call small? 10 inch 11 inch 12 inch or smaller?

    And species? Largemouth or Smallmouth.

    Bait? worms? Shiners? Artificials?

    thanks and enjoy

      1. that’s hilarious! thanks for sharing that.

        I have used hot dogs before long ago.

        My go to bait is Live Night crawlers rigged Texas style ( for those who don’t know what that is….the hook is passed through the head of the crawler and then out a very short way down and turned and brought back partially into the worm down about the length of the hook leaving almost the entire worm dangling.)
        The action of a Texas style rig is phenomenal! and I mean that. The bass can’t resist! The pickerel nail it as well.
        And of course all of the regular cast of characters, Yellow perch, white perch, blue gill and crappie.

        I have used a wide variety of artifcials with mixed results.
        I come back to the night crawlers all of the time.

        Cheers

        Enjoy!

          1. bring your hand over head of fish and carefully move it over fish depressing the fins so they don’t get you and hold as firmly as you can without hurting the fish.

            Then with your other hand, grab the hook and remove hook. Piece of cake. You can always use a needlenose
            pair of pliers. I have to use then occasionally when the fish swallows the hook. That almost never happens to me, but once it a while it does.

  9. Thanks TK. I hope you have a great celebration.

    We are going to a ceremony-only wedding later this morning In the western suburbs, and I hope they weren’t depending on outdoor photography. It reminds me of my daughter’s comment when we were planning her wedding 15 years ago: “You couldn’t pay me enough money to schedule an outdoor event in New England on any day of the year.”
    It was an early October weekend, so I was visualizing blue sky, crisp air, pretty leaves… it poured, with humidity that felt like today!

  13. It’s been interesting watching the HRRR try to adjust to get this event right. It’s almost there, but not quite. The performance of that short range model has left a lot to be desired lately, however it did reasonably well with the NW flow activity 2 days ago.

    Everything is on schedule for the city of Boston to get its steadiest rain during the 11AM hour into the noon hour for a bit. After that, the Cape MAY get clipped with a batch of showers/storms by early afternoon but otherwise hit & miss until the cold front sweeps through this evening.

    NOT a widespread beneficial rain event, even though most areas see at least some rainfall.

      1. Outside of a possible passing downpour later, you should pick up most of your rain between now and “noon-thirty”.

  14. This public FB page was created for people impacted by and wanting to help those impacted by Hurricane Laura.

    I don’t usually make this known, but I often give to recovery efforts as soon as I verify that they are legit and the $ is going to the victims. Some of you may be interested in this page. It’s sad to see some of the situations these people are in, but it’s encouraging to see how many are willing to help.

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/350081832688269/?ref=share

    1. People need to realize that the climate is always changing through natural means but that we are exasperating it through our activities and disrespect to the planet. We also should be in a cooling trend not a warming trend.

        1. unfortunately I have seen similar information being used by the anthropological climate change denier’s. Its important information to put out but we as scientists need to be careful with it.

          1. Yes. No information should be misused. But this article doesn’t give them much fodder. It’s well-written, science based, and it’s very important to know the history of our planet because it helps us plan for the future of it.

    1. Breaks of sun have been occurring near the South Coast. Like Thursday, although it’s a different orientation, we’re having trouble getting that front to come too far north.

  19. The South Coast was left out of much of the first rain area, as noted earlier. Their shot to catch up somewhat comes during the next couple hours as a batch of rain heads northeastward from near and south of Long Island up through the South Coast region.

    1. You know me. I’m about as far from negative as it gets when it comes to my Bruins, but I really feel they have to win today. I don’t know if this team can come back from a 3-1 series deficit. Cashing in on that PP would be a great place to start.

  22. I love what today´s 00z GFS predicted for Nana …. conversely, the 12z GFS wastes Nana way OTS.

    Doesn´t Nana have to be a menacing hurricane that clobbers something ??? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  23. Greetings, amigos!
    Thanks, TK…Happy Birthday, Nate!

    I can verify what George reported above: heavy rain here in Taunton/Norton. I mistimed my grocery shopping and got drenched.

        1. Matt I think TB has a lot more going for them in this particular matchup especially in goal . Can the Bruins win 3 in a row sure but against TB the way there playing now I don’t see it happening .

  26. You can stick a fork in the Bruins. They are DONE for the season for all practical purposes. I don’t really follow hockey but could this be their demise for a number of years to come?

    Maybe the Celtics can at least make things “exciting” vs. Toronto the defending NBA Champs? (7 games)?

    Red Sox ended their season since game #2. Even before the pandemic I didn’t expect much anyway. 😉

    Go PATS!?! 🙂

    A decision on whether or not to have a Duckboat Parade in Boston certainly won’t be an issue THAT’S for sure. 😉

  27. I got some breaks of sun coming out now. Reading the mesoscale discussion from the storm prediction center it looks like a severe or tornado watch could be issued.

    1. With this wording

      * Primary threats include…
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
      Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
      A tornado or two possible

  29. Light rain for a few hours in Back Bay. Enough to give the trees, dormant grass, and vegetation a couple of sips of water. They need more, obviously.

    Can the Bruins come back? Yes. Will they? No. TB is too fast, too versatile, and too strategically superior.

    I feel for Chara. It’s not a great way to retire. He is a hall-of-famer, and has had a wonderful career. Other Bruins are aging, too. So, this does appear to be the end of an era.

    The Red Sox are so atrocious that it’ll take a few years to even be competitive.

    Patriots appear to lack talent at multiple positions. But, their salary cap situation is good, so they can add players moving forward. Coach is excellent. I’m very curious about how well they do.

    I barely follow the Celtics. My guess is they make it to the Eastern Conference finals and lose.

          1. I heard them talking about him possibly sitting more in favor of the younger guys but I have not heard anything about him retiring. I only heard that he has no current plans to.

    2. That’s being VERY optimistic for the Celtics. This series with Toronto will likely be their last for this season. A sweep wouldn’t totally surprise me but I don’t believe they’ll fairly competitive. I say they lose in 6-7 games.

  32. According to a tweet from Meteorologist Josh Cingranelli there was a confirmed tornado on the ground in Rensselar County in Upstate NY. I will be interesting if that tornado did cross the boarder into Vermont.

  33. Chara has not said he’ll retire. As recently as a few months ago said he had “no plans to retire.” But that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t. I believe he will. He’s a man with a lot of pride. He’s getting outplayed in almost every facet of the game. He really can’t keep up.

  34. HRRR, which I believe, kills the storms as they come across central MA. One or two stronger cells may survive. But I am going to be surprised if they over-achieve that forecast.

    1. I was thinking the same from what I’ve learned from great past teaching here. I’ve lost a bit of confidence lately but sure plan to regain that

    2. HRRR. Had to look this one up, and, well, this is what it is:

      The HRRR is a NOAA real-time 3-km resolution, hourly updated, cloud-resolving, convection-allowing atmospheric model, initialized by 3km grids with 3km radar assimilation. Radar data is assimilated in the HRRR every 15 min over a 1-h period adding further detail to that provided by the hourly data assimilation from the 13km radar-enhanced Rapid Refresh.
      The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)

      Got it? Lol. Good thing we have some model experts around here…

      2. Dave, I was including you in our model experts here, because I appreciate and try to learn from your comments all the time.

        With this one though (the HRRR), even the description was way over my head, never mind understanding how it works. But I’ll keep trying!

  35. I had a front row seat for the storm’s POOFORAMA. I was sitting out by Concord / East Acton as the storms approached, trying to catch a cloud to cloud discharge on slow motion video, which I did not do (oh well next time), but there was a couple more bright flashes and good rolls of thunder (the final & closest about 6 miles to my west) and then I drove home watching the clouds literally dissipate in front of me as they were hauling eastward.

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