Monday August 31 2020 Forecast (8:49AM)

36 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

Discussion…

A well-advertised high pressure system sits atop the region at this time and will provide splendid weather for the final day of August and “meteorological summer”, but we know that summer itself is not over here and the weather going forward will prove that point easily before the end of this 5-day period is over. Before that, high pressure shifts offshore but far enough north for an east to southeast wind flow Tuesday into Wednesday, and while a weak upper level trough slides across there will be some cloudiness and the opportunity for a few showers, but no widespread rain. Thursday we will find ourselves in a summery southwesterly flow with higher humidity. A weak cold front moving across the region Thursday night and first thing Friday may bring a shower but the front is likely be a poor precipitation producer, just bringing slightly drier air for Friday, which will still be quite warm.

Details…

TODAY: Sunshine, eventually some high clouds too. Highs 70-77. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a few showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-495 late-day. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Predominant pattern as high pressure aloft off the East Coast. High pressure builds in from the west at the surface September 5 with fair and mild weather but cooler than the previous couple days, then shifts offshore with a warm up September 6 before a cold front approaches with a shower and thunderstorm risk September 7 (Labor Day). High pressure builds in with dry weather to end the period but temperatures averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Overall large scale pattern doesn’t change too much with a warmer than average temperature regime overall and a few, but limited shower chances.

36 thoughts on “Monday August 31 2020 Forecast (8:49AM)”

    1. Yes, I was around for that one. I was living in Norwood at the time and it blew over the steeple of St. Catherine’s Church.

  7. I joke but this is one of the only times in a year that a forecast for a specific day (vaguely written here at first, but always with an idea in my head) that stayed the same for 15 days, from when August 31 was day 15 in my blog until now, when it looks and feels exactly as I envisioned it back on August 17.

    I am also on the final day of a long stretch of work-free days, my first in a very long time. I took 3 quick days off at the start of July, but had not taken any time off since the holiday season of last year, so it was a nice break. The weather was helpful for my “getaways” and more local plans. It started with a top 10 day for a ferry ride over to MVY with SAK, my first time there since I was too young to remember being there. It included a 3 hour tour around the island. The next day was the ultimate beach day in which I made a solo visit up to Hampton Beach NH. During 2020 Pandemic time I have tried to stay out of too many public places (beaches, etc) on weekends so the August 22-23 weekend was spent tracking and chasing thunderstorms, but between those I did manage a great walk around our local Horn Pond on August 23, something I wasn’t able to do as much during a recent flare of my autoimmune disease (the second one in 3 years). The August 23 chase was the short one to Wakefield where all the tree damage occurred. Quite the storm to be in. Picked out the location about 1/2 hour in advance and was right where the strongest storm moved through. From a chase standpoint, nailed it. Sad to see all the damage though, but what an experience. Thankfully no injuries! August 24 was a home projects kind of day then spent the evening with my son. Made a shorter trip up to Hampton the next day, August 25. Wed Aug 26 was a slow winding trip through the more sparsely populated NW suburbs of Boston to take some summer afternoon photos around Lexington & Concord. After tracking weather on August 27, that evening I found myself down on the South Coast again, grabbing some photos in Newport and watching some offshore lightning from the remains of the CT storms. August 28 my son & I went up to Hampton Beach for the day as part of his birthday celebration. Another great beach day as it turned out. Other areas were much more cloudy apparently. Interesting note: The ocean circulation along the NH Seacoast brought in an abundance of seaweed to the north side of Hampton Beach, that I discovered on August 21, the most I’ve ever seen in all my years going there. In one stretch the seaweed was piled up nearly 18 inches thick along the high tide line on the sand. The seagulls were having a field day picking crabs and other treats out of the piles (some of which I have photos of). But by my return visits there Tuesday & Friday of the following week, nearly all of the seaweed had vanished. I love nature. Anyway, this weekend included an bocce game in the rain with my son and his friend on Saturday and a more relaxing local Sunday getting some things done around the house both inside and mostly out in the gusty breeze and dry but mild air. Today is a nice wind-down to it all, with another local pond walk and more time with my son. 🙂 … And to think I still have about 3 weeks of time in my time-off bank. Saving most of that for the holiday season.

    Have a great day!

    P.S. I’d never played bocce before. I’m not that bad at it. Maybe someday there will be a WHW bocce tournament. 😛

    1. My introduction to this term came in the late 1980s from the MA State Climatologist. It’s not a term you hear often.

  9. Thanks TK for posting the AMO info above! Assuming I read the charts correctly, it’s going to be a long while before we go back into a “cooler” phase. Many of us here will not likely live to see it. (c. 2040?)

    I guess I’ll have to rely on my memories of the more common cool, crisp Octobers of the 20th century. Oh well.

    1. It’s hard to tell. There have been shorter phases so we did come off the peak the last few years but sometimes it’s hard to tell if you go into a temporary drop and then a secondary peak or it just goes down. But don’t draw the conclusion that we can’t still have cool falls. We have had cool autumns during the peak positive phase of the AMO too. I have just noticed that they seem to be less common. As always, there are other factors too.

  10. Looks like we may have a couple of tropical depressions in the Atlantic in the next 12-24 hours, one off the East Coast (fish storm), and one in the Caribbean (headed towards Central America).

    What should be getting attention is the Western Pacific, where a very quiet season-to-date is starting to ramp up quickly. Typhoon Maysak is passing west of Okinawa today. The airport in Naha reported sustained winds of 62 mph and gusts to 82 mph in the last few hours with the center of the storm still 110 miles south-southwest of the island. It should continue to strengthen, then weaken a bit, with landfall in South Korea on Wednesday as the equivalent of a borderline Category 2/3 hurricane.

    The storm to watch is newly-formed Tropical Depression 11W. It’s going to strengthen steadily over water during the next few days while heading west then northwest. Both the GFS and ECMWF have it make landfall in southwestern Japan this weekend as a SuperTyphoon – the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane.

    1. The Pacific as a whole started out late and very quiet with its season, but you’re right that it’s changing. Oh so many years tracking and forecasting those tropical cyclones, far more complex, in my opinion, than trying to forecast the Atlantic Basin. Let’s not even talk about forecasting southern hemisphere storms. 😉

  11. Answer to yesterday’s quiz.

    Where is the driest (non-polar) desert on Earth?
    A. Sahara
    B. Atacama
    C. Syrian
    D. Gobi

    The correct answer is B.

  12. I wonder if something from an old front, perhaps the one passing through Labor Day weekend, can sit off the east or southeast US coast and develop a tropical feature close to home. If this were to ever happen, the projected east coast 500 mb flow in the long range is flowing right up the east coast.

    1. Projections that far out still have to be taken very lightly. But I agree that we do have to watch for anything there (as previously mentioned in my DAYS 10-15 segments, because it won’t take much to have the “right” pattern.

  13. If Japan gets whacked so do we get something similar seven to ten days later? Sometimes east coast of Japan is similar to US. east coast especially in the fall and winter.

    1. Not usually in tropical season though. They are just more prone to them because on average the Pacific is just much more active.

      As far as winter goes, that depends on the long wave pattern.

      1. One thing it will do is alter the jet stream. A typhoon that went through last week turned into a strong extratropical storm that impacted Alaska at the end of last week. That in turn resulted in the large trough moving into the nation’s midsection.

        This is a common occurrence in the fall.

        1. I always love watching for extratropicals that have a significant impact on the long wave pattern.

  14. Mark (if you are reading), as you know I’m hoping the Bruins come back from the dead in their series with TB, but since it’s going to be very difficult for them to beat that team 3 straight, I’m getting ready to become an Islanders fan for the rest of the playoffs. I really love the position that team is in. My #2 team will become my temporary #1 if the Bruins are eliminated. We’ll know tonight if they have another chance.

  16. Pete B. had me laughing on his 5:30PM news segment weathercast on NBC Boston. I love that guy’s on-air presentation. Kevin L. is another top notch presenter.

    BTW in case I forgot to mention it or some of you missed it, you’ve seen Jacob Wycoff occasionally on WBZ TV during his “free lance” time, but he’s joining the team full time starting tomorrow. 🙂

    1. This is 2020. You can’t buy a raindrop.

      The man has a heart as huge as it gets. No negatives. Lots of lessons there

    1. Yup. Pretty much what I’ve been talking about for the last month.

      Also shared a long email here from my anonymous colleague explaining why the CV season is not good and all our storms except 3 have been junk storms. Cristobal, Isaias, and Laura are really the only systems this year that have been formidable.

    1. Just curious. How did you become an Islanders fan?

      For me, personally, I could never be a fan of any “New York” team of any sport.

      1. I think somewhere in my head I thought Long Island was an honorary part of New England, or like that toddler that fell behind and was trying to catch up with outstretched arm… 😉

        Maybe more truthfully: A very young hockey-obsessed friend around 1979 was talking the team up and its chances to win it all in the coming years. This kid was literally about 11 years old but knew his stuff. Anyway I admired the team quite a bit after watching them play the Bruins a few times, and they just became my 2nd favorite team . I also liked their uniforms. That was a big factor to a kid of about 12. Anyway, even though I was (and always) a Bruins fan, it was interesting watching the Islanders live up to the prediction and probably over-achieve, winning 4 Stanley Cups in a row in the early 1980s. I just always stayed a fan of the team with them in the slot right behind my Bruins.

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