Thursday September 3 2020 Forecast (7:24AM)

57 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

Discussion…

I did not give the current weather system passing through the region nearly enough credit. Not that we are getting a couple days of soaking rainfall, but while yesterday ended up being more productive for rain than I thought, today may do the same, so you’ll notice today’s forecast for today looking a little less sunny and a little more showery than yesterday’s forecast for today. Sometimes in the short-range the weather can be “uncooperative”, just as it more regularly does in medium and certainly longer range attempts to uncover its mysteries. But be that what it is, we go on. So now we have high humidity in place and a frontal boundary that drifted eastward into the region with occasional showers during the overnight hours, and will now only drift eastward across the remainder of the region today as a little wave of low pressure forms on it and moves to the northeast. This means that the partly sunny and humid day that I’d been forecasting is now to be a mostly cloudy day with showers a little more likely and also somewhat earlier in the day than I had been expecting. Another, stronger front comes along from the west tonight though to clear the conglomeration out and push everything off to the east. This will open the door for drier air to move in, though Friday will have the feel of mid summer as the air will be quite warm, even feeling a bit hot. High pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley to south of New England then off the coast during the course of the Labor Day Weekend, and even though a cold front will approach the region later on Labor Day itself, at the moment it looks like all three days will be rain-free, starting out a little cooler Saturday (compared to Friday) before we warm right back up again thereafter.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially this morning. A few episodes of showers and a risk of thunderstorms. favoring late morning through early afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point falling through 60s to upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure centered northeast of New England will bring fair and slightly cooler weather September 8 then the high will shift southward and a southerly air flow will bring warmer and more humid weather in by September 9-10, but September 10 featuring a shower and thunderstorm risk as a cold front moves into the region from the west. High pressure follows this with more fair weather, slightly cooler September 11 and warmer again September 12.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

General pattern is likely to feature high pressure aloft along the US East Coast with a westerly flow over New England. This pattern is mainly dry with above normal temperatures for our region.

57 thoughts on “Thursday September 3 2020 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  1. Good morning and thankTK.

    In addition to the 0.27 inches in the bucket yesterday, picked
    up another 0.07 inch in the wee hours of this morning.

    I’ll take it.

    1. This is the second time in a couple weeks that the short range guidance not only blew it, although this time it was better than last time closer to the event, but lead me somewhat astray as well. At least the result is a little bit positive, temporarily. All of this help gets erased and more in the coming days…

  3. Thank you, TK. I greatly appreciate your candor. Weather doesn’t take place under experimental conditions. You explain model deviations so well, but also reasons the actual weather conformed to the models or not.

    1. Thank you, Captain! We are greening up but I admit to not having driven around to check water levels. I will have to take a ride.

    2. Thanks Captain! I find it interesting that most of NYS is totally in the clear. I suspect this is the result of rainfall from there rapidly drying up in the Berkshires from west to east.

  7. Thank you, TK. Very fair comments and lots of lessons can be learned from this. I think it is an important reminder that when the knee jerk reaction is to fault weather folks and services that they are tasked with getting the forecast out many days in advance…..especially when extreme weather is a possibility.

  9. Thanks TK!

    Not to say it’s been wet recently in SNE by any means. But it seems like any time it looks like it’s going to turn very dry we still manage to sneak in at least some scattered storm events, often ones that the models don’t pick up on until a day or two in advance. It’s kept areal-averaged precip below normal but not terribly so, and has kept drought expansion gradual.

    Looking ahead at the next 7 days (at least), we’re going to have to pull that off again, and at the moment I really don’t see how we do it. There’s the storm shot tonight, but after that it looks very dry for quite awhile. I do continue to see a window for wet weather, possibly with tropical enhancement, right towards the middle of the month or just after. But you can see the theme; the dry days come easily in this pattern, and we have to work for the wet ones. I think this drought gets worse before it gets better.

      1. We are definitely watching it. My office covers a good portion of the Delmarva peninsula so we are well within the enhanced risk area. Still looks like a good chance for damaging winds are a tornado or two, though I’m slightly more reserved on the threat today. I’ll be in working OT later this afternoon as we like to staff up during these events.

  11. Ace, hope it works out. Concord MA is an historical gem, but also an incredibly beautiful area: Carlisle, Lexington, Bedford. South/southwest of that region you’ve got places like Holliston, Sudbury, South Natick, Dover. The list goes on.

  12. The fire situation in California is likely going to take a turn for the worse this weekend. Some extreme heat is likely starting tomorrow. Sunday looks to be the worst day, with high temperatures in northern and central California away from the coast in the 100-115 range with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s. The GFS actually has highs of 115-122 in the North Bay and East Bay, less than 20 miles from the Bay itself, with highs well into the 90s for San Francisco and Oakland, and 100-105 for San Jose.

    1. I have a close friend living in San Jose and the fires have been flirting with her area – so far no big danger for her immediate area. The heat has been on blast-furnace once already, and now it’s coming back for another round.

      1. One of our former co-workers at WSC is the Incident Meteorologist at the Bay Area NWS office in Monterrey. On one of my trips out to Sonoma in March of 2018, we had a thunderstorm with hail, and when I reported to the NWS Office, I ended up chatting with him, as he was on shift at the time.

        1. Oh wow! Always interesting to reconnect with people, and how it happened is a bit of an ironic amusement.

    2. A weather friend is down there and has today off from his job. We’ll see what he ends up seeing.

  14. well, if there is good news in the weather department, current indications show pretty much everything in the tropics look to be for the fish. Things can of course change, and there is alot of unknowns but its looking good right now. https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2020090312&fh=240

    Plus the MJO could go into phase 4 second half of this month along with a surpressed K-wave over the GOM/Caribbean. (becomes less favorable for hurricanes in the Western Atlantic) or be undistinguishable. (lets hope this actually happens we don’t have any surprises.

    Up here I think we are going to have a few chances of seeing some fall like conditions in the next 10 days and the Rockies look to have their first winter system for the higher elevations. Does anyone know of any apple orchards opened/opening?

    1. Smolak in North Andover is open for PYO as well as the farm stand. As would be expected, they are strictly following the guidelines for phase 3 per Governor Baker. You can get more info on the farm’s web page. This is one of my favorite farms in the area, but I also suspect that most of the other farms are operating similarly. I’d just check web pages if you plan on going to any other ones.

      Here’s Smolak’s page: https://www.smolakfarms.com/

      1. Thank you both. I saw pink in the East sky from my family room window so went out to look west. When I turned to go inside, I saw rainbow.

    1. Thanks JJ you are too kind. I would not be rooting for the Rangers if they were in this position 🙂

      That was a huge late period goal.

  18. You got another overtime game in this series.
    I am upset with that Yankees loss. Leading 4-0 then 7-4 the bullpen again which is a strength for this team blew another game. The injuries this season have finally caught up to the Yankees.

      1. I have been wondering that multiple times this season. The last thing as a Yankees fan you felt you didn’t have to worry about was the bullpen.

    1. That’s happened so many times to the Bruins over the years…

      Outshoot opponents by a 2-1 or even 3-1 margin and still lose a game by one goal.

  21. Playoff hockey is great to watch as long as your team is not playing. If your team is playing it is nerve racking.

    1. Very frustrating loss. Especially when you outshoot them that bad. All three Islanders losses have been in OT. Pretty crushing. Advantage Flyers now in game 7 with all the momentum going their way.

      1. Sorry Mark! It was a great game to watch but my “premonition” seems to have gone the way of a couple of my forecasts this week. Onto Game 7! No premonitions this time, just GO ISLANDERS!

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