Friday September 4 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)

23 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Discussion…

A quiet weather pattern with a lack of rainfall is not good news for drought relief, but the timing of it with regard to this 5-day period is great for those with outdoor plans in and around the Labor Day Weekend. The only “weather system” that we will have to deal with is a cold front that comes through between late Monday and early Tuesday, probably with no rainfall. Otherwise its high pressure in control with a summery warm day today, a bit cooler Saturday, and warmer after that, though it may cool off again especially in coastal locations Tuesday with more of an onshore air flow.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure shifts southward, offshore of the Northeast, and increases the warmth and humidity September 9-10 with eventually a risk of a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front approaches later September 10. This front should move offshore with a new high pressure area bringing fair and drier weather for September 11 followed by dry but warmer weather for the September 12-13 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

General pattern is likely to feature high pressure aloft along the US East Coast with a westerly flow over New England. This pattern is mainly dry with above normal temperatures for our region.

23 thoughts on “Friday September 4 2020 Forecast (7:31AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Two good days this weekend for windows open, with the lower dew points. Looking forward to that!

  9. Thanks TK
    To me were now getting to the point of the year where the heat and humidity don’t have the staying power as it does in June July and August. Were still going to have humid days don’t get me wrong but no long stretches of it.

    1. Even a short stretch still gets to me. Once we get past Columbus Day is when we can generally be rid of it until next year. Of course I can remember a number of years ago we had an unusual batch of humidity in December.

      1. A tropical air mass can visit any time of year because of our geographic location. It’s just less common late year thru early spring. 🙂

  12. I was just thinking about how, despite today having the feel of summer, and well that should come as no real big surprise because it’s still summer, and despite that I see a warmer than average pattern for a while, this still pales in comparison to 1983’s summer & September for the Boston area. This is info I have posted here before, from STORM 2K blog, but here’s another look at that blog entry…

    ……………………………..
    Boston sizzled in 1983.

    Summer 1983 saw the temperature exceed 95° seven times at Boston (Logan Airport):

    June 22 97°
    July 4 98°
    July 16 99°
    August 8 96°
    August 20 97°
    September 11 99°
    September 20 97°

    Boston had four heat waves in which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° on three or more consecutive days.

    The longest heat wave occurred during the July 15-July 21 period:

    July 15: 93°
    July 16: 99°
    July 17: 91°
    July 18: 93°
    July 19: 90°
    July 20: 93°
    July 21: 95°

    Moreover, on 30 days the temperature reached or exceeded 90°:

    June: 5 days
    July: 13 days
    August: 6 days
    September: 6 days

    July 1983 was the hottest month ever in Boston with a mean temperature of 78.0°.

    With a mean temperature of 70.6°, September 1983 was the hottest September on record for Boston. 1930 came a relatively distant second with a mean temperature of 69.4°.

    The other months ranked as follows:

    June: 70.7° Tied for 10th
    August: 73.6° Tied 18th

    June through August: 74.1° Tied 1st (with 1949)
    July though September: 74.1° 1st (2002 finished 2nd at 72.9°)
    June through September: 73.2° 1st (1952 was 2nd at 71.7°)
    ……………………………..

    So there you have it. September is a warm month in New England, because 2/3 of the month occur in summer, even though the coffee shops are pushing pumpkin spice hard and there are already Christmas decorations in retail stores. Long Live Summertime! It will still be with us for a while. 🙂

    1. 1983 is a forever reference point summer and 2002 is an underrated performer for heat and humidity.

      This summer I thought areas of SNE would have a lot of 87-89 degree days and we have. But some of those days ended being more frequently 90-93 than I was thinking back in April and May.

  13. Interesting conflict arising between GFS and ECMWF next Wed – Sunday. GFS keeps most of SNE dry with 0 to 0.25″ region wide during that period while the ECMWF has measurable precipitation everyday Wed through Sunday with 1-2″ plus of rain for the most of SNE during that period.

    ECMWF has support from the Canadian and ensembles, while GFS seems more resonable with placement of high pressure, strength of the return SW flow, frontal timing and interaction with a shortwave traversing through the mid-Atlantic.

    So my early thoughts are the chance of showers and t-storms rise Thursday and Friday, but I don’t see persistent mositure and clouds as perhaps the ECMWF suggests.

    Anyway – enjoy a great a near perfect Thursday – Tuesday stretch of late Summwr weather.

    Yes, I wrote summer.

      1. ‘Tis a brave person who can forecast an all-day rain on day 7 in the summer. Props for courage. 🙂 I’m not that courageous. I’ll go “partly sunny with scattered showers, humid” for Friday as my day 7 forecast today.

        I’m glad J.W. is joining the ‘BZ team. I like him.

    2. I’m glad you wrote “summer” because it’s still summer. 🙂 And it will feel like it too!

      I also lean toward GFS solution over the ECMWF.

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